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Obama with 71.8% chance of winning
PredictWise summarizes Betfair, Intrade and IEM, with 71.8% chance of Obama victory
The New York Times has some advice in dealing with Republican attempts to suppress voting.
This year, voting is more than just the core responsibility of citizenship; it is an act of defiance against malicious political forces determined to reduce access to democracy. Millions of ballots on Tuesday — along with those already turned in — will be cast despite the best efforts of Republican officials around the country to prevent them from playing a role in the 2012 election.

Even now, many Republicans are assembling teams to intimidate voters at polling places, to demand photo ID where none is required, and to cast doubt on voting machines or counting systems whose results do not go their way.

Adam Liptak notes that fighting over fewer and fewer battleground states is changing the nature of campaigns, and possibly of our democracy.
The shrinking electoral battleground has altered the nature of American self-governance. There is evidence that the current system is depressing turnout, distorting policy, weakening accountability and effectively disenfranchising the vast majority of Americans.


A candidate confident of winning or sure of losing a bare majority of a state’s popular vote has no reason to expend resources there.

Some of the people who live in the nation’s spectator states return the favor by staying home from the polls. In 2008, voter turnout in the 15 states that received the bulk of the candidates’ attention was 67 percent. In the remaining 35 states, it was six points lower.

That disparity increases the chances that one candidate will prevail in the Electoral College while another wins the popular vote. Polling experts believe Mitt Romney has a greater chance than President Obama of being on the losing end of that combination, by running up large margins in states dominated by Republican voters while losing most of the competitive ones.

Drew Westen says that if Republicans lose, they'll take it as a sign that Romney wasn't conservative enough. If Obama loses Democrats will take it as a sign that he was too liberal. Where have I heard that before? But Liptak says there's a lot of left hiding in America's slide to the right.
Most voters intuitively understand that jobs and deficits are linked — too much of an emphasis on deficits leads to too few jobs — because working people with money in their wallets drive demand, whereas wealthier people with money in their wallets drive Jaguars (and send the rest of their income to their hedge fund managers). Even in the heart of red America, people understand that high unemployment and income disparities of the magnitude we are now witnessing are bad for economic growth.

But you have to speak in a way that brings out their inner Keynes, as I discovered when testing the following message in the Deep South: “The only way to cut the deficit is to put Americans back to work.” That message beat the toughest austerity message by over 30 points.

The reality is that our government hasn’t become this dysfunctional because the parties are so “polarized.” It’s because there is only one pole in American politics today, and its magnetic field is so powerful that it has drawn both parties in the same direction — rightward.

But is moving to the right the path to wining elections?
The data, however, suggest just the opposite — that both candidates have benefited in the general election every time they have taken a left turn. President Obama was in deep political trouble 15 months ago when he cut the closest thing he could to a “grand bargain” with House Speaker John A. Boehner to slash the federal budget by trillions, and he did nothing for his popularity nine months earlier when he extended the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy. Not until he began talking like a populist did he begin picking up steam in the polls.
If you're only going to read one of these articles in full, read this one.

Maureen Dowd treats the final weeks of the campaign as soap opera, where Chris Christie is the object of Romney's unrequited affection.

Nicholas Kristof reminds women what a President Romney would mean for them.

Whatever we call it, something real is going on here at home that would mark a major setback for American women — and the men who love them.

On these issues, Mitt Romney is no moderate. On the contrary, he is considerably more extreme than President George W. Bush was. He insists, for example, on cutting off money for cancer screenings conducted by Planned Parenthood.


One result might be the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which for nearly four decades has guaranteed abortion rights. If it is overturned, abortion will be left to the states — and in Mississippi or Kansas, women might end up being arrested for obtaining abortions.

Ross Douthat says it doesn't matter who you vote for, because both guys will do the same thing. Except Obama will bankrupt the nation and plunge us into ultimate darkness.

Mathew Stepp worries that clean energy policy isn't well designed to capture long term public support.

The recession has Americans prioritizing the economy over the environment. ...

Yet the same month, a survey revealed that 72 percent of Americans think addressing climate change should be a priority. In other words, most Americans want action against climate change, but they are hesitant to support policies that force them to make lifestyle changes. ...

No one is against clean-energy innovation, but support cannot be fleeting or shallow. Proposals cannot be tossed into the budget as a soon-to-be-forgotten line item. And “clean-energy innovation” can’t be used as rhetoric to sell tired policies.

One thing Stepp points out: the sudden boom in fracking that has made natural gas so cheap, only happened after 30 years of government-funded research.

Dana Millbank opens a special delivery.

Karl Rove, the Republican political savant George W. Bush dubbed “Turd Blossom,” [predicted] ... “sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48% with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.” Rove may be right — but only in the sense that a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Republican pundits never worry about being right, since being wrong won't dent their air time on Fox.

David Duncan wonders what it will mean when you can order up some optional equipment—for yourself.

In a future presidential election, would you vote for a candidate who had neural implants that helped optimize his or her alertness and functionality during a crisis, or in a candidates’ debate? Would you vote for a commander in chief who wasn’t equipped with such a device?

Originally posted to Devil's Tower on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 08:55 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  the end finally draws near ... (9+ / 0-)

    ... and one person couldn't be happier:

  •  Maureen Dowd can go to Hell! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Theden, dewley notid, askew

    She's nothing but an unrepentatnt PUMA who takes every opportunity to run Obama down. She was one of the best truth-tellers in the Village during Dubya's reign of terror. Now she just lives to be snarky to Dems, and Obama in particular. The Times got rid of the wrong "liberal" columnist!

    "If you're going to go down with the ship, make it a submarine." - Wayne Shorter

    by Oliver Tiger on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:08:29 PM PDT

  •  We've gone from "It'll be a landslide!" (21+ / 0-)

    ... To Rove now predicting that Romney will somehow squeak out a narrow victory that won't be known until the next day. That's not exactly evidence that the Pennsylvania strategy is anything but desperation.

    But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by thezzyzx on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:13:30 PM PDT

  •  Lousy opening sentence, Mark. (0+ / 0-)


    Just Win, Baby. -- Al Rodgers, Feb. 24, 2012

    by OLinda on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:40:17 PM PDT

  •  2 more days of polls to endure. (13+ / 0-)

    When you look at the enthusiasm at the Obama rallies and the absence of energy at the Romney rallies over this past week, it feels like the President is gaining momentum that will add to his final numbers, much like a candidate in a primary contest surges at the end and overperforms the last polls.

    The PA rally Romney has scheduled is pure smoke and mirrors.  It's not winnable.  Most people in PA will be paying attention to the Giants-Steelers game.  If he is to waste time in PA, it suggests that his internal polling in Ohio and Wisconsin must be bad.

    In addition, I think Obama will get a boost in blue states over his handling of Sandy and that will add 2-3 points to his margins.

    Meanwhile, the President is hitting NH, FL, OH and CO.  His itinerary shows that he is tending to his firewall and expanding his paths to 270.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:51:26 AM PDT

  •  I must admit Rove and his ilk have done... (9+ / 0-)

    ...a great job keeping the GOP faithful "in the fence". That is to say, not allowing their core voters (to this point in polling at least)  to be be picked off days ago by Johnson or Goode because Romney has no path to 270 EVs.

    That was the whole point to "unskewing the polls." They know full well what their internal polling actually says, and it's why they made a show of "expanding their map" to include PA and MI.

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 01:09:16 AM PST

  •  I strongly recommend reading Kristof's column (5+ / 0-)

    which is why I wrote this post late last night.

    I will be happy if you simply read Kristof.

    I do not completely agree with him, and have some additional points of my own, so perhaps you will be so kind as to take a look at what I posted.


    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:32:46 AM PST

  •  Dana millbank is the idiot who said (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TWOFACEMITT, mdmslle, IM

    Obama would lose Iowa this year because of the DMR endorsement. How do these people even get paid for saying shit like that?

    •  That was Howard Fineman who said it. (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rennert, TWOFACEMITT, Bush Bites, mdmslle, IM, askew

      Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

      by Micheline on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:37:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Milbank and his ilk (8+ / 0-)

      are really feeling their relevance challenged by Nate Silver.

      Today's column is truly the mother of false equivalencies: First, Milbank exposes the transparency and cynicism of Rove's propaganda.  He calls it what it is.

      Then he turns around and says that Nate Silver is essentially doing the same thing for Democrats.

      Fails to mention that Silver's approach is scientifically rigorous, with a methodology that's open to scrutiny.

      Fails to mention that Silver's track record has been, shall we say, somewhat more successful than Rove's in recent elections.  And this is a notable omission, given the pains Milbank takes to show how poor Rove's track record has proven.

      Fails to mention that Silver is on the record as saying that, because of place in the public sphere, he declines to vote, but that if he did he'd likely fall between fiscal conservative and libertarian.  

      The essence of the Kool Kidz commentariat is that they know the right people, they're paying attention to the right anecdotes, and they're just plain right.  

      In so cavalierly dismissing Nate Silver, Milbank is essentially dismissing both the mountain of 2012 polling data and the historical track records of polling aggregations.  It's a pathetic, self-serving column.

      Nobody puts Baby in a binder!

      by deminva on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:05:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  he misrepresents what Silver claims (7+ / 0-)
        But he [Rove] has plenty of company among prognosticators who confidently predict that which they cannot possibly know.

        There’s Nate Silver, a statistician-blogger at the New York Times, who predicts with scientific precision that President Obama will win 300 electoral votes and beat Romney by two percentage points in the popular vote. He gives Obama a 79 percent likelihood of winning.

        Now, that last sentence rebuts the preceding two. People can criticize Silver's uncertainty estimates, but it's pretty dumb to complain that he is "confidently predicting that which [he] cannot possibly know."
        I give Silver a 50 percent likelihood of being correct.
        That's what I call cheap talk. Milbank already knows that Silver will be reamed for "unprofessionalism" if he tries to call that bluff.

        Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:19:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  anttdote from waPo (7+ / 0-)
          Please, give us more pollsters and fewer pundits

          Compounded by a treatable case of socialmediaphobia, Todd was displaying a bit of old-fashioned caution, ducking behind the curtain of “I’m just a reporter, folks.” How out of touch. Campaign 2012 has seen news outlets go ever more deeply into making news, not merely reporting on it. They don’t just conduct polls, as they have for years. They have embraced the art of computer modeling, generating a constantly revised picture of the national political scene.

          More noise than illumination, you might suppose. Perhaps, but only if you ignore all the noise that the media’s long-standing pundit-centric product has churned out for decades.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:28:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly (5+ / 0-)

          I just commented at the Post.  Feel free to pile on over there.

          I was just thinking that I should have added that Nate Silver has never claimed to "know" the outcome of this election -- and that, as you say, he would consider "knowing" and "prognosticating" anathema to what he does.  He offers statistical likelihoods.  And as a master baseball statistician, he would point out that giving Romney 25% odds of winning is actually pretty good -- like saying that a .250 hitter is likely to get a hit in most games.

          Nobody puts Baby in a binder!

          by deminva on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:38:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some people, however educated, are either (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HudsonValleyMark, tb mare

          totally ignorant of statistics and likelihood models or are willfully and deliberately ignoring them.

          •  Statistics is hard. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Heart of the Rockies, askew

            I'm one of those educated people to whom statistics is almost completely unintelligible (and I took a statistics course in college!).  But that course might as well have been taught in a dead medieval language.  Thanks to Nate Silver, Paul Krugman, Dean Baker and Brad DeLong  I have at least learned to differentiate "bad" statistical reporting from "legitimate" statistical reporting. Still, for the general public who are ignorant of statistical methodology, it's easier to draw parallels between two unrelated models - or ignore them entirely - than try to understand the difference between reporting based on statistics and partisan opinion.

            "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

            by SueDe on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:42:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I once taught beginning stats courses. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, SueDe

              Even our very best students had trouble understanding the basic concepts because they are never covered in grade and high school.  I have always said that instead of calculus, which is often taught as a status symbol but not because it will be useful, should be supplanted with basic courses in probability, statistics, etc.  People can use it in every day life, be it a medical decision, understanding weather predictions, elections, accident probabilities and so on.

              •  I agree. Whether how to arrive at a (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Heart of the Rockies

                legitimate, comprehensive statistical outcome is taught, at least a course should be a requirement for graduation from high school in how to critically differentiate between statistically relevant information and statistics used for purposes of persuasion or evasion.

                "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

                by SueDe on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 10:30:59 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Milbank: Silver = Rove (0+ / 0-)

        This column convinced me that Dana Milbank is a dim bulb.

        Here's Karl Rove - whose predictions for a Bush landslide in 2000, a Republican House and Senate in 2006, and an easy McCain victory in 2008 - were all not just wildly wrong, but clearly cynical lies motivated by the need to get a discouraged base to the polls.

        Then you have Nate Silver, who is basing everything he says on actual polling data, who has no real stake in the outcome other than his own reputation, AND has an outstanding record on his previous predictions.

        Yet Dana Millbank dumps them in the same category, saying both are just "making it up" and "counting on being lucky."

        Most galling of all, he gives Silver a 50% chance of being right, offering no basis for that number. Now who's just making stuff up?

        I used to wonder why Rachel Maddow - who was just yet another guest pundit on political shows five years ago (albeit with a great radio career under her belt) - succeeded in her rise to TV eminence, while others, who were getting the same amount TV time to display their prowess back then, failed. This column from Milbank reminds me that there is an idiot class in punditry, and Maddow is a rare gem.

    •  I'm surprised to see Dana take a swipe at Rove. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Usually, the Villagers worship him.

      Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

      by Bush Bites on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:07:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They get your attention. That's what they get paid (0+ / 0-)

      for. :)

      We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:07:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who - or what - is the DMR? (0+ / 0-)

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:24:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bill Clinton on the Romney jeep ad (27+ / 0-)
    On the controversial Romney ad running in Ohio that suggests Jeep production may be moving to China, he offered this admonishment:  “Chrysler said Mitt Romney was wrong. Then GM rebuked him…You know, when I was a kid and I got my hand stuck in the cookie jar, my face sort of turned red and I took my hand out of the cookie jar. Not governor Romney. He kept digging for more cookies.”
  •  This is depressing. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Michael P. McDonald wrote a piece showing GOP is still outperforming Dems in absentee ballots:

    Both figurative and literally, registered Democrats are leaving requested mail ballots on the table. Democrats are returning the mail ballots at a lower rate than Republicans, leading to wide disparities among the ballots that have been cast compared to the ballots that are still sitting on kitchen tables across the country.

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:39:34 AM PST

    •  comparison to 2008? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM, wishingwell

      These numbers are hard to measure without a proportional comparison to 2008. As Ralston noted regarding Nevada, while Republicans are performing much better than 2008, it will take a lot more to close the 12% margin of victory from 2008.

    •  "Absentee" isn't the same as "Early" (10+ / 0-)

      Growing up in Virginia, I learned early that the GOP had heavily institutionalized Absentee Ballot participation. They had a low tech operation designed to shepherd ballots to the process, simply asked the local registrar how many ABs in total had been returned at some designated day or days prior to election day, assumed the overwhelming number of those were "their" votes, then had a team of people work the phones to follow up on their "known frequent AB users." I'm sure their tracking is much more precise now, but the point is AB has been in their "DNA" for a very long time.

      In most OfA operations, the focus is on getting supporters to Vote EARLY, in person. Absentee balloting leaves too much to chance, as McDonald correctly points out. Some states we have less leeway: my current state (MI)) and my home state (VA) don't have "no excuse early voting" but many larger cities and counties dominated by Democratic officials have early voting mechanisms provided you affirm that voting on Election Day "may be problematic" for you. (As I suggested my nephew, who lives in one city in VA and works in an adjacent one, being "out of town" on election day doesn't mean out of town ALL DAY or that it has to be "considerable distance" away.)

      My better half had to vote AB this year, and I went IN PERSON to the courthouse to get her application, delivered it IN PERSON, and after her ballot came in the mail and she filled it out, delivered it IN PERSON to the courthouse and didn't leave until I saw the security envelope time stamped and placed in the appropriate box.

      My daughter registered for the first time this year, and in Michigan first time voters must vote in person (a law passed by our GOP dominated legislature to hinder participation by college students) so for the first time in quite a while I am voting in person on November with her in case there is a GOP vote challenger present.

      This year, I'm leaving nothing to chance.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:15:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, but Dems are beating Repubs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Egalitare, One Opinion

      in early voting numbers.

      More than 27 million people already have voted in 34 states and the District of Columbia. No votes will be counted until Election Day but several battleground states are releasing the party affiliation of people who have voted early.

      So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio – five states that could decide the election, if they voted the same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which Obama won in 2008.

      Obama dominated early voting in 2008, building up such big leads in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press.

      The numbers are there by state, but here's an interesting blurb from NC (that many pollsters are counting as "lean Republican"):
      North Carolina

      About 2.5 million people have voted, and 48 percent of them were Democrats and 32 percent of them were Republicans. Four years ago at this time, Democrats had a slightly larger lead over Republicans, and Obama won the early vote by 11 percentage points.

      Obama lost the Election Day Vote by 17 percentage points in 2008. But the early vote was much bigger than the Election Day vote, resulting in Obama's narrow win.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:44:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  you know, with all the GOP shenanigans (4+ / 0-)

      many dems may be deciding that they need to vote IN PERSON.

      I requested an absentee ballot for my home state of FL because I am in MD and will not be in FL on November 6.

      But when I returned it, you know, I didn't just slap 65 cents on the envelope. I wet to the post office, grabbed a priority mail envelope, requested a signature on delivery and got a tracking number. It cost me $7. Why? because I wanted to AMKE SURE my vote was delivered.

      THEN two days after the delivery date, I CALLED THE SOE's office and asked them if they'd received my ballot, and whether there were any problems and would I need to resubmit for any reason and was my ballot counted.

      I'm sayin.  People may not feel comfortable submitting an absentee ballot this time around. I know I myself went above and beyond to make sure mine got there and was actually counted. I suspect I am not alone in this.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:53:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh and one other thing: (0+ / 0-)

      in 2008 I requested an absentee ballot even though I was living in FL at the time. In FL you don't need a reason to request an absentee ballot.

      Anyway, I got the ballot in the mail and because I was so busy working with the local campaign, I never returned it. What I did instead was delivery it AT MY POLLING STATION on voting day morning. They marked me off and everything was fine.

      Some people may be choosing to do that as well.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:56:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  door knocking (14+ / 0-)

    I did 149 yesterday & 38 Friday afternoon.

    the one knock I remember is the guy telling me Barack is the worst president ever.

    We Must stop that BullShit talking point !

  •  Isn't Romney a cyborg? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    We don't need a hypothetical.

  •  mother of bi-racial boy writes letter to Obama (4+ / 0-)

    Elizabeth Messina is an award-winning photographer.  I explore her Huffington Post offering because it is important, because I think you should go and view it.  I explain why here.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:44:20 AM PST

  •  Well Vermont is a spectator state and some are... (7+ / 0-)

    ..predicting a record turnout here.

    Meanwhile Obama & Clinton are across the river in NH today.

    I will be counting paper ballots in my little town with 600+ registered voters. Heavy turnout, more work. Sigh. It will take that much longer before I can go home and start drinking.

    "So, am I right or what?"

    by itzik shpitzik on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:47:36 AM PST

  •  Cspan Tennessee caller: 'We need a biblical (9+ / 0-)

    president.'.......uh no dahlin..........we don't.

    •  she may just as well have said (10+ / 0-)

      we need a 'preacher president'.

      The right wants someone who is a combination of president and Sunday preacher. Who stands there and admonishes them for doing bad all week long, but also forgives them and says it's going to be alright. Someone who says, don't worry, I will make sure you are safe, but you needn't worry about the details. Just put money in the little bowl being passed along in the pews.

      Sickens me just how much this country is regressing. And how much more of this church/state merging is happenng.

      I am an Angry White Woman and I vote. Mr President: I've got your back

      by karma13612 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:06:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I heard one C-Span caller this morning (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, mdmslle, tardis10

      who said she was voting for Mitt Romney because he was a good Christian.
      Uhhh, no.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:46:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is that the same caller who said she is voting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle, tardis10

      for Romney because "we need a Christian president"?  It's a big "tell" when a voter calls a nationwide TV show and insinuates that the president is not a Christian, when the president has repeatedly stated that he is and has taken four years of flak for being a 20-year member of a Christian church.  There is something else about this president that is sending this voter into nonsense-land - something that she refuses to admit.  I wonder what that can be.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:52:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nate has some hard #s from Ohio (9+ / 0-)

    on early voting stats. Looks good.

    If Ohio is at all "similar to 2008", as Nate suggests, we will win it.

    I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

    by rennert on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:48:19 AM PST

  •  I heard Chuckie T (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OLinda, askew

    say on the Saturday version of his show that he was going to be passing the baton to Matt Lauer on Wednesday morning because we wouldn't have a winner yet. Chuck is always spot-on so I called in sick already.
    Also, it was really funny at the end of his show he said in a flat voice: coming up next, a special. It was actually Chris Matthews portrait of President Obama - to be fair Chuck might not have known what was coming on next because they took off Prison and are running real shows this weekend, but it was still about the most unenthusiastic introduction I've ever heard. Poor Chuck.

    I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

    by hulibow on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:53:49 AM PST

  •  We don't live in a Democracy; it's a Republic. (0+ / 0-)

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:55:43 AM PST

    •  At this point..all we'd need is a King and we'd be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites, mdmslle


      •  True. (3+ / 0-)

        I just get my back up when people say "our Democracy," as if the United States were a true democracy.

        How can you fix the problem if you can't even define it properly?

        Just after the completion and signing of the Constitution, in reply to a woman's inquiry as to the type of government the Founders had created, Benjamin Franklin said, "A Republic, if you can keep it."

        Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

        by Bush Bites on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:05:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  This annoys me too. I hate it when (0+ / 0-)

          I have any freshman college student, just out of high school, and thus, most likely fresh out of their high school government class, starting any question or discussion topic with, "Since America is a Democracy........."

          I will not say anything but will go write on the board, as they continue to speak:

          "America IS NOT a Democracy.  America HAS NEVER been a Democracy.  If you WANT a Democracy, do something about it!"

          This will happen multiple times during any given semester.  

      •  Actually England has a parliament and prime (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        minister and the prime minister briefs the queen and that is about it.

        And if you read Prince Charles's hilarious Facebook posts and Tweets and how he made fun of Mitt,  I think being in England sounds like a great idea if god forbid, Mitt manages to steal this election.

        I would much rather hang around the Royal palace with Liz,  Phil, Chuck, Cami,  Harry, Will, and Kate..they seem more liberal, educated, and more fun than most Republicans. LOL

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:01:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Indeed. Some people think the 're' in (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes, LSvendsen

      Republic is short for 'rex' and that the public selects a king. That's wrong. The 're' stands for 'res'--i.e. the things of the people. We select representatives, because that's more efficient, but those representatives are not rulers, they're agents.
      Of course, agency is a difficult concept for people who can't act and get into public office in hopes of being able to get others to act for them, because, other than being able to flap their lips, they're not good for much. Nobody expected that people whose hands are connected backwards would be elected as agents of the public. Imagine a road agent who doesn't know the difference between a shovel and a hoe!
      Poor Willard is the epitome of the incompetent blabber mouth.

      We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:21:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sounds like a Zen riddle. (6+ / 0-)
    But you have to speak in a way that brings out their inner Keynes, as I discovered when testing the following message in the Deep South: “The only way to cut the deficit is to put Americans back to work.” That message beat the toughest austerity message by over 30 points.
    Just call it Demand Side Economics.

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 04:59:43 AM PST

  •  The Popular Vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline, A and the Js Grandma

    Is Romney (that dick) trying to shore up the popular vote so he can delegitimize the Obama Electoral College victory?  

    I'm in the Kansas City market (on the Kansas side) so I get the advertising for Missouri, too.  

    I've been awake and had the teevee on for 20 minutes and already seen 3 Romney Super PAC ads.  Why is he spending money like this in the KC market?  

    My first thought is that this advertising is just GOTV.

    These are really some of the first presidential ads I've seen.  Granted I don't watch much teevee and I usually only watch shows that I DVR so I can fast-forward thru the commercials.  

    Also, saw a horrid Todd Akin add where Mike Huckabee verbally fellates him.  Just terrible.  

    I love the smell of sulfur in the morning! -- Babs Bush

    by Theden on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:02:59 AM PST

    •  Thought the Same Thing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I am in Missouri on the St. Louis side. Our TV market is also seen in S. Illinois  

      I have seen a couple of Romney Super Pac ads lately and also wondered why they were spending money here.  Romney is going to win Missouri and he is going to lose in Illinois.  

      I think that he is now going for the popular vote, since he has to know that he is losing the EC.

      As for the Akin ads, I turn off the TV immediately if one of those come on.  I can't stand it.  Our little local weekely paper did an editorial last week asking people to please not vote for Akin.  It would be such an embarrassment to the state.  

      I never gave anybody hell! I just told the truth and they thought it was hell. Harry S. Truman Read more:

      by A and the Js Grandma on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:38:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just this morning... (0+ / 0-)

        I've already seen four ads from three different pacs (St. Louis area).

        But nothing tops the Akin ad that starts with "you may not agree with everything he says" and goes on the say that Akin will be a reliable rubber stamp for president Romney.

        If not the strangest ad of the season, it's up there.

    •  The real threat from PAC money and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      One Opinion

      dark money (501(c)(4) money) is in the races for state legislators.  The aim of this money is to turn more states into Allen's Wisconsin or Kasich's Ohio or McDonnell's Virginia, which will eventually turn national elections.  

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:02:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Faux News (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, wishingwell, askew

    Currently running stories Obama has already lost Florida. Steve Doocy, so annoying and such a liar.

  •  To get you in the spirit-- (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs, skohayes, wishingwell, DSPS owl

    We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:04:39 AM PST

  •  Romney/Bain Cover Ups & Dirty Secrets! (0+ / 0-)

    Mitt Romney says Lying is a Business Plan! - Information MSM Won't Tell You in Mitt's Own Words!

    (1) Liar Romney Bain Capital Cover UPs:!  via @youtube
     View media

    (2) Dirty Secret Behind Bain Capital Profits Under Mitt Romney:  via @youtube
     View media

    (3) Hypocrisy: Mitt Romney is Still Earning Millions From Bain Capital
    :  via @youtube

  •  Milbank is characteristically (11+ / 0-)

    insipid this morning, comparing Nate Silver's predictions to those made by Karl Rove.

    Milbank further goes on to say that we're right back to where we started. a toss up, draw, whatever.

    Okay, Dana, we'll go real slow for you here. Nate Silver has presumably developed his own algorithm based on data to make his predictions. Nate may have an opinion on candidates, but these days he keeps them to himself. Rove, Dana, is a very political animal. Everything  he says and does is calculated for an effect, mostly, I think, to increase his net worth.

    Dana, stop being an asshole.

    Re-elect Barack Obama and elect Elizabeth Warren "Mitt Romney...utterly devoid of charm and mildly offensive."

    by al23 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:05:59 AM PST

    •  he doesn't understand statistics (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      al23, skohayes, wishingwell, tardis10, askew

      He notes that Silver gives Obama a 79% of chance and then saying he gives Silver a 50% chance of being right and then asserts that Silver is "making it up" because he claims to be certain about what's going to happen on election day.

      Actually, saying Obama has a 79% chance of winning is, by definition, an expression of uncertainty. If he said Obama had a 100% chance of winning, it would be an expression of certainty, but he's saying there is a probability of a large variety of scenarios, including a solid possibility of a Romney win though the most likely is an Obama win.

      Similarly, by saying he gives Nate "a 50% chance of being right," he's actually implying that he thinks Obama only has 39.5% chance of winning, not 50%. Who is Dana Milbank to be so "certain" about what will happen on election day?

    •  Per my post above (10+ / 0-)

      Milbank knows his equivalency is false.  He provides all manner of detail to show that Rove is a propagandist who pulls predictions out of his commodious behind.

      Then he realizes he can't offer parallel criticisms of Silver, so he gives us the dismissive I give him a 50/50 chance of being correct.

      What Milbank is really showing is that, like so many of our professional experts [sic], he cannot stand that a statistician is using a scientific method to provide newsworthy information -- and that in 2012 he has a highly visible platform for doing so.

      The commentariat don't always despise these statistical models.  They're happy to report on Professor No-Name Political Scientist Guy and Some State U, who has a prediction model built on GDP and unemployment.  It's a nice serious feature in the slow part of our 24-hour infotainment schedule.

      But they're really pissed off that someone who actually understands numbers is stealing their credibility by using polling data correctly.  Chris Cilizza is another one smarting from this loss of credibility.  Basically said that he was calling Ohio a toss-up because Romney couldn't win without it (and Cilizza couldn't keep promoting a photo finish without it).

      Oops!  Where's my credibility at?

      Nobody puts Baby in a binder!

      by deminva on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:17:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the real "insult" is that Nate has an NYT column (10+ / 0-)

        And worse yet, he writes well and knows how to make arcane concepts understandable to non-statisticians.

        The pundits want Nate locked away in the poli sci department of some 3rd tier university, writing the occasional obscure press release for pundits to decode and spin for the masses... as is proper.

        But a NERD just writing columns for the New York Times! He didn't even have to work the cocktail circuit! It's an outrage!

      •  Just as it took them years to get used to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the fact that a very conservative Republican, Reagan, won the presidency, it's taking them years to get used to the fact that conservatism is on a slow slide to oblivion. Mainstream journalists are always behind the curve when it comes to seeing the big picture, viewing today's reality through yesterday's paradigms. Almost subconciously, they're resisting the country's shift to the left, because they're used to and comfortable with and long since made peace with its previous shift to the right, and now that it's moving the other way, they're freaking out.

        It's less ideological, I think, than psychological.

        "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

        by kovie on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:51:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  and it is becoming increasingly clear that Rove's (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      al23, skohayes, mdmslle, wishingwell

      net worth has increased by at least $50 million dollars this campaign cycle.  I hope the PAC donors turn on him after Romney loses....

      If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. John F. Kennedy ( inaugural address, January 20, 1961)

      by Outraged Mom on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:35:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rove is "good." (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        A masterful con man. Of course when the marks are hysterical wingnut rich assholes, I won't shed a tear.

        Re-elect Barack Obama and elect Elizabeth Warren "Mitt Romney...utterly devoid of charm and mildly offensive."

        by al23 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:49:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  There are going to be some pissed off billionaires (0+ / 0-)

        and millionaires out there who Rove tapped for a pretty penny.  

        Well I have no sympathy for these wingnut plutocrats who would donate a fortune to the Turdblossom.

        Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

        by wishingwell on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:06:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Comparing Rove to Silver is just plain stupid (0+ / 0-)

      There is no comparision. One is a statistician and the other is a Republican fundraiser/.strategist and Grade A asshole.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:04:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Regarding the problem of the "spectator states": (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tardis10, condorcet

    Electing the president by popular vote is actually one of the easiest major electoral reforms to implement because it can be done via a very simple workaround.

    Support the National Popular Vote campaign!

    Oklahoma: State Government So Small It Fits In Your Vagina!

    by GreenSooner on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:06:17 AM PST

    •  A plan to implement a nat'l popular vote may be (0+ / 0-)

      "simple," but that's not the same thing as being "easy."  Getting enough states to agree to the plan is the hard part; only two states even apportion their electoral votes on a proportional basis currently, which should be an easier task.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:17:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why should congressional district apportionment... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        condorcet politically easier?

        The reason a state might support National Popular Vote is that it is currently being politically ignored in presidential races. This concern applies to both very blue and very red states.  NPV only needs states representing a majority of the electoral votes to pass in order for it to become effective. And non-battleground states collectively have far more than that number of electoral votes.

        The reason so few states apportion electoral votes by CD (and none apportion them proportionally) is that doing so decreases the state's political importance. The most obvious reason a state might want to split its electoral votes is if the state is reliably Democratic in presidential elections but finds itself with a GOP governor and legislature willing to monkey wrench the state's political importance in order to help the party nationally (or vice versa, but Democrats are less into this sort of thing).

        So we shouldn't be surprised that while only two states have CD apportionment, nine states have already passed National Popular Vote representing half the electoral votes necessary for it to become law.

        Allocating the electoral vote by CD is also a terrible idea.  
        Most CDs are very gerrymandered, so that presidential-election-by-congressional district would take us from 42 safe states to c. 380 safe CDs, with the presidential election being decided in a random smattering of a few dozen close congressional districts (plus the enormous finger-on-the-scale of those unfairly distributed two Senate-based electoral votes per state).

        Oklahoma: State Government So Small It Fits In Your Vagina!

        by GreenSooner on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:47:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  U.S. GI blood for Mideast oil (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tim DeLaney, bookbear, wishingwell

    U.S. policy at least since Reagan has been "GI blood in exchange for Mideast oil".  I think we should use this argument in favor of clean energy alternatives.  

    Instead of sending some of our finest young men and women to die in Mideast wars every few years so we can still have enough Mideast oil to power our cars, homes and factories - costing not only lives but trillions of U.S. tax dollars - we should spend a small fraction of that on clean energy technology research, tax incentives and more fuel efficient cars and trucks.  Every school house, municipal building, apartment building and others should have wind energy turbines and solar panels to power itself and add excess power to the common power grid.  Every state turnpike should be lined with wind energy turbines.  Every bridge should have wind turbines above its girders.  Every skyscraper should have wind turbines high above its roof.  And all of those turbines and solar panels would be MADE IN AMERICA.  

    Then the next time one corrupt Mideast sheik wants to invade another corrupt Mideast dictator, the U.S. can make a more reasoned decision whether it is in the U.S. national security interest to waste thousands of GI lives (and tens of thousands of lives maimed and disabled) and trillions of U.S. tax dollars to help corrupt sheik A defend against corrupt dictator B.

    That's the argument we need to make in favor of the investments and tax incentives needed to achieve energy independence with clean energy sources (wind, solar, biomass) ALL MADE IN AMERICA instead of importing oil from unstable Mideast.

    In Philadelphia where the NFL Phila Eagles play, the 69,000+ capacity stadium is being retrofitted with wind turbines, solar panels and a biodiesel/ natural gas generator facility that can produce 100% of the stadium's energy needs. The Natural Resources Defense Council and the Green Sports Alliance on Sept. 12, 2012 cited it as a model of green energy efforts.  The Eagles estimate that the investment will save $60 million over the next 20 years.  

  •  Republicans wouldn't be working so hard... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lazybum, Micheline, kovie, tardis10, LSvendsen

    ...or spending so much money, if they didn't think they had a chance to win.

    They must believe that their voter suppression tactics will be enough to overcome their deficits in key swing states. As Charles Pierce puts it: The election is within the margin of chicanery.

  •  G Palast's "Billionaires and Ballot Bandits" free! (0+ / 0-)

    That is, for $0. There's an offer from now until the election. They ask for a voluntary contribution. Your call. But I'd grab it now, if only to read after GOTV.

  •  Sorry, but the Milbank article is crap. (5+ / 0-)

    He equates Rove's predictions with Silver's, basically saying they're equally reliable. Rove's are based on what he wants. Silver's are based on a careful algorithm of weighting all the polls and then arriving at a conclusion based on cold statistics. This is more "sure the GOP is wrong here, but on the flip-side here's a looney liberal" false equivalence crap. Silver MAY be wrong.... but he's damn more likely to be right than Rove.

    Tim Kaine achieved the impossible as DNC chair. He made Terry McAuliffe look good in comparison.

    by OReillysNightmare on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:44:29 AM PST

  •  What Democrats think that Obama is too liberal? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tardis10, mdmslle

    If he loses, it's because he was to the right of Ronald Regan.

    "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

    by CFAmick on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:45:49 AM PST

  •  Like Obama said, get 'revenge'. Vote!... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, wishingwell
    This year, voting is more than just the core responsibility of citizenship; it is an act of defiance against malicious political forces determined to reduce access to democracy.

    Isn't it discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit? (Noel Coward)

    by Mid10Dem on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:47:49 AM PST

  •  I've noticed that 95% of Romney signs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    not placed along random stretches of road are in front of small businesses that are lucky to hit 250k revenue in a good year. A gym. An awards plaque maker. An automotive shop. They're the ones who will be most affected by promoting a radical political agenda. I drive past a lot of light manufacturing, second and third generation owned, with millions in revenue and a global market, and they don't have signs up. They're much less likely to lose sales due to their political affiliation in the first place.

    They are a small but loud minority, even in Pennsyltucky.

    "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

    by CFAmick on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 05:55:43 AM PST

  •  I have been Bellowing the Words....Vote, Vote Vote (0+ / 0-)

    outside Gas Stations, in Grocery Stores, at Security Gates, and over the phone to young people, all over South Florida. I am waiting to get carried out in a rubber jacket somewhere.  I hope this is all over soon!

  •  I think I see (0+ / 0-)

    Some Romentum at the right side of that chart...

  •  Opened my local rag this morning (0+ / 0-)

    and was greeted by a full page "rundown" of the state of the Presidential election:
    Both candidates in the low 200's in EV
    Toss up states: NV, CO, WI, IA, MN, PA, OH, NH, VA
    To Romney: FL, NC
    Some political science prof from local college: Well, the statisticians use what polls they are given-that doesn't mean the polling data is valid. (The old garbage in-garbage out argument)
    Can't believe the stoopid

  •  Clean Energy isn't a drag on the economy... (0+ / 0-)

    ... it IS the Economy! That is the message we need to be sending out there.

    For decades, they have said that we can't put clean energy regulations in place because they cost us money. Too much money to be profitable in most industries. That's just ludicrous.

    Today, we are in the business of growing new jobs and new industries. And Clean Energy has to be built into the Business Plans of all industries that want to grow in the next decade. Every few years we go through an industrial growth spurt. We retool whether through technology or ingenuity to make new products more cost effective. We have to build Clean Energy into the next industrial age. Government policy and regulations should make it a necessary part of our next advancement in industry.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:33:45 AM PST

  •  A rational, cogent analysis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lonely Liberal in PA

    Unfortunately "rational" and "cogent" are to these peoples' philosophy as sodium is to water. You didn't mention that by her followers' own definition, Rand was a "welfare queen".

    In 1976 she retired from writing her newsletter and, despite her initial objections, reluctantly allowed Evva Pryor, a consultant from her attorney's office, to sign her up for Social Security and Medicare.
    Sorry wingnuts! Your self reliant Heroine was just another "freeloader on the neck of society". She never even paid into those programs but received benefits based on her dead husband's citizenship so she's an even bigger freeloader!

    "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for a real Republican every time." Harry Truman

    by MargaretPOA on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 06:47:19 AM PST

  •  Driving through rural Virginia last week (0+ / 0-)

    I was really surprised by the number of Obama signs I saw. Along one stretch of Route 60 through Nelson and Buckingham Counties, Obama signs actually outnumbered Romney signs.

  •  Exclusive Liz Warren video (0+ / 0-)

    Here's my exclusive video of the Elizabeth Warren rally in Hudson, MA on Friday plus a shot across Charles Pierce's bow for his boneheaded Halloween post.


    Defending bad taste and liberalism since 2005.

    by jurassicpork on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:03:19 AM PST

  •  The number of battleground states is growing (0+ / 0-)

    It's going back up. It hit a generational low between 2000 and 2004, since then it's been creeping up.

    Pundits hate to admit this because far more former red states  (North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire) have become purple than blue states (Wisconsin?), and more red states are trending purple (Arizona, Georgia, Montana, Texas) than are blue ones (Michigan?). Also former purple state Pennsylvania is bigger than former purple state Missouri.  

    Pundits hate when they can't say something is happening to both sides equally, unless it benefits conservatives.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:11:26 AM PST

  •  Arbitrage (0+ / 0-)

    There's a bit of chatter about the spread between Betfair (which, as I understand, Americans can participate) and Intrade (which we cannot)--the two sites from which the PredictWise graph is determined.  Currently, the spread is 12 points.  

    Betting for O on Intrade and R on Betfair will (essentially less fees) yield a 12 point return.   They say the Brits are banking this 12 point return by fleecing our Republicans who are artificially skewing Intrade's odds.

    Conservatives in the good ol' USA are indeed the world's outliers.  The Brits thank them for their "factless" worldview.  


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