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Actually, the number is probably higher than that. I know that at any minute he is going to update it, and the numbers for Obama will be even better. It hasn't updated, so I know it will any second now. So I keep going back, and back again, and back again. I should probably be doing something else, but the election anxiety is killing me, and I just need one more poll number update. Really, just one more, then I can turn out the light and go to sleep.

And now I have to close, because I need to go check:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

just one more time.

Poll

I have checked 538 today:

57%164 votes
26%75 votes
5%15 votes
2%7 votes
0%1 votes
8%24 votes

| 287 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Not sure we'll see the numbers improve today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    George3, astral66

    I think they may tick slightly down, though not much.

    There weren't many polls, and it's possible we'll take a small hit from the Ipsos/Reuters polls showing us losing ground incrementally, as they seem to be rated quite highly by the model, plus marginally tighter polls in Wisconsin and New Hampshire. (Although I doubt they'll count for much)

    We did go up in a few nationals, but I don't think the model cares much for them. (Fun fact; there are now no national pollsters showing Romney ahead)

    If we do go up at all, I think it'll more be a combination of time running out for Romney and the Dispatch Ohio poll further reinforcing our lead

  •  asdf (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thomlch, astral66, extradish

    He did not update until 12:43 a.m. yesterday - so I imagine he's getting close.

    And today's polls were VERY good for Mr. Obama - plus one more day falls off, meaning the time-dependent restrictions fall away faster now.

    I expect Obama to go from 305 to about 309-210.

    Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

    by GayIthacan on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:16:15 PM PDT

    •  Agree (0+ / 0-)

      Just shaving a day off the timeline when the idiots can make up ground should show improvement.

    •  I saw a lot of good numbers today, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pamelabrown

      battleground states are looking better and better.

    •  Genuinely curious (0+ / 0-)

      How were they very good? I may have missed some; I just saw the Reuters/Ipsos polls which were good but a little weaker than yesterday, plus PPP in WI which was likewise good but not as strong as previous, and Dispatch poll in Ohio which was good but not amazing.

      Trackers were pretty good; gains in most and Romney now leading none, but I wouldn't say that qualifies as 'very good'

      •  Think the biggest factor is the margin . . . (0+ / 0-)

        historically if you have a polling average around 4 percent, you win over 90 percent of the time.

        His polling average basically boils down to Ohio.  A lot of polling at this point showing a consistent lead in the range of about 3 points.  None of the polls are indicating a Romney lead.  Plus there's early voting, so even if there is late movement, it would have to be significant to overcome the early vote margin, and it would need to show up across several different polls.

    •  Just Updated (0+ / 0-)

      1:05 AM Slight uptick for Obama.

  •  In Nate Silver, We Trust! n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    StonyB

    "Some men see things as they are and ask, 'Why?' I dream of things that never were and ask, 'Why not?"

    by Doctor Who on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:24:35 PM PDT

  •  538 will probably go down. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheKF1

    I expect the numbers to tick down slightly to 300.  Today had some good polling but also some bad.

  •  As we get closer to election day (3+ / 0-)

    It should trend quickly to the now cast number, assuming that all polling stays the same.  The polling has been good today, but the margins have been a bit smaller in Ohio, so the number may be lower.  It there's any movement, it won't be much.

  •  Don't hit "Refresh" on Polling sites, CANVASS!!! (7+ / 0-)
  •  I loved your diary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheKF1, FiredUpInCA

    It so expresses how we, his supporters, feel about our President, that we need to feel him "safe" for another four years, and also how much we admire Nate Silver.

    I respect Silver.  That is my highest compliment for someone who is predicting who will win.  I know his methods are testable, and he does not mind anyone subjecting his methods to testing.

    Hoping you get a good night of sleep.  We need to get through Tuesday--at least Tuesday.  It could mean many more visits to 538.  Ah, thus it is.

  •  BAD news (0+ / 0-)

    If he's been updating the polls early in the morning...

    And today ends DST....

    He gets another hour to make you crazier than you already are.

    Go to bed.
    The race is done... nothing left to do now but GOTV, get voted, and make a big dinner Tuesday night.

    We've had some brilliant people do some incredible work along with us regular folks doing the lifting.
    The machine is running in high gear, all the gauges look good... two more laps to go!

    What is this I hear of sorrow and weariness, Anger, discontent and drooping hopes... Life is too strong for you-- It takes life to love Life

    by Nebraska68847Dem on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 09:37:35 PM PDT

  •  To sleep, perchance to dream (0+ / 0-)

    "Really, just one more, then I can turn out the light and go to sleep."

    If anyone here has Nate's cell number, please call and encourage him to finish up soon.

    "To sleep, perchance to dream, ay, there's the rub."

    I'll keep vigil with you.

  •  Do you realize that you can make phone calls from (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NotGeorgeWill

    the comfort of your home?

    You can call OH, VA, PA, NV or any other swing states.

    This GOTV diary has all the info you need.

    You can  canvass and make calls on behalf of congressional and senatorial candidates because the President will be a lot more effective with a blue Congress working with him.

    I haven't checked any polls today. Polls REFLECT what we're doing out there on the street and on the phones.

    That stuff doesn't happen magically.

    Go make it happen. Then when Nate updates the numbers, you can smile and say "I built that. "

    © grover


    So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

    by grover on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:00:19 PM PDT

    •  make phone calls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Juliann, NotGeorgeWill

      Been there, done that. But I'm not calling anyone at 11:08 pm.

      I need to see the state updates before I get ready to do it all again. Thank you very much.

      •  OK, running out the clock (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NotGeorgeWill

        Day-to-day:

        COL -0.2%
        IOWA + 0.1
        NV +0.1
        NH -0.3
        OH 0
        VG +0.3
        WI -0.3
        NC 0
        FL -0.1

      •  Right, but the diarist said they checked (0+ / 0-)

        Nate's site at least 270 times today (probably more).

        I didn't say that EVERYONE here wasn't making calls. I was suggesting to the diarist specifically.

        And, as you know, time goes a lot faster when you're making calls. Start dialing and all of a sudden, a couple of hours are gone. By that time, Nate may have posted a new update.

        © grover


        So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

        by grover on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:32:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It's a sickness my Canadian hubby can't grok (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    astral66, dpc, Juliann, NotGeorgeWill

    Alas.  

    I'm such a basket case.  Completely obsessed and completely non-productive at home or anywhere else.

    I've had to switch from popcorn to Dubble-Bubble from my kid's Halloween bag.

    Picking pie-fights on facebook with low-info Romney voters...  It's ugly.  I feel dirty doing it, but I just can't help myself.  

    Tuesday can't come soon enough!

    "...hope is not the equivalent of optimism. Its opposite is not pessimism but despair. So I'm always hopeful." William Sloane Coffin

    by mxwing on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 10:02:30 PM PDT

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