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Below the squiggle I show each state with a timeline of polls, from the most recent at the top to those taken longest ago at the bottom. Only poll results shown in 2012 are listed. Only poll result from polls that directly asked about the ballot question are listed. No polls that asked simply about marriage equality in general are included.

Here's the bottom line average of the most recent polling for those who can't wait:


Maine:      53.5 - 42.0
Maryland:   49.0 - 45.0
Minnesota:  49.5 - 46.5 (against constitutional amendment)
Washington: 53.7 - 40.3

The polling averages to the right are the averages of all the polls above
the line (e.g, after October 1, after Labor Day, in all of 2012).

Historically, as I detailed in this diary, we can expect a drop of 1% to 2% in the pro same-sex marriage vote, and a gain of about 6% in the anti same-sex marriage vote

On the face of it, that means narrow wins in Maine and Washington State, and a defeat in Maryland. Minnesota is a lake of a different color because a constitutional amendment must pass with 50% of all those who vote in the election. It isn't enough to have a plurality (e.g., 49% for amendment, 48% against amendment, 3% who otherwise voted chose not to vote on this issue). So it may come down to just how many people decide not to vote...

Historical data may be deceiving, however, because this is the first time in history that people have before them (in ME, MD and WA) a vote to affirm marriage equality, as opposed to a vote to define marriage as solely between a man and a woman. If we see the undecideds break more evenly, producing larger victories in Maine and Washington and a squeaker win in Maryland, it may be because of this difference.

Polls close in Maryland and Maine at 8:00 PM Eastern, in Minnesota at 8:00 PM Central Time, and in Washington, which votes by mail, ballots must be in the hands of election workers or in a drop-box no later than 8:00 PM Pacific Time.  

MAINE

Question 1: Enact marriage equality in Maine?


2012 referendum question summary (yes - no):
  52-45
  55-39
  ----- October: 53.5 - 42.0
  57-36
  53-43
  52-44
  ----- Labor Day: 53.8 - 41.4
  57-43
  55-36
  58-40
  47-32
  ----- 2012: 54.0 - 39.8



MARYLAND

Question 6: Ratify the legislature's passage of marriage equality?


2012 referendum polling (yes - no):
  46-47
  52-43
  ----- October: 49.0 - 45.0
  49-39
  51-43
  ----- Labor Day: 49.5 - 43.0
  54-40
  57-37
  51-43
  40-43
  50-44
  49-47
  ----- 2012: 49.9 - 42.6



MINNESOTA

Constitutional amendment: define marriage as solely between a man and a woman?


2012 polling summary (against - for):
52-45
47-48
----- Last two weeks: 49.5 - 46.5
51-44
46-47
49-46
----- October: 48.6 - 46.0
47-49
47-48
43-50
----- Labor Day: 47.8 47.1
37-52
49-43
44-48
----- 2012 46.5 - 47.3



WASHINGTON STATE

Referendum 74: Ratify the legislature's passage of marriage equality?


2012 Referendum polling summary (yes - no):
  52-42
  57-36
  52-43
  ----- Last week: 53.7 - 40.3
  49-45
  55-37
  54-38
  55-40
  ----- October: 53.4 -40.1
  52-40
  56-38
  ----- Labor Day: 53.6 - 39.9
  50-43
  50-43
  50-46
  47-46
  ----- 2012: 52.2 - 41.3

Originally posted to jpmassar on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:21 AM PST.

Also republished by Maryland Kos.

Poll

What time willl they first call for marriage equality?

4%9 votes
20%42 votes
24%51 votes
18%39 votes
7%15 votes
3%8 votes
8%17 votes
12%26 votes

| 207 votes | Vote | Results

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