One of the few slender threads that Team Mittens has to cling to is the idea that 'Undecideds are Goin to break for Romney" - and overcome the small deficit that Romney now faces in almost every national poll.
Of course, even if national polls meant anything - which they do not - the evidence today is for precisely the opposite.
Join me over the orange freeway interchange.......
This meme is not only desperate, it is not even historically accurate - and this time around it appears that President Obama is going to garner at least half - or more - of the UNDECIDEDS.
Polls SHow UNDECIDEDS Cannot Save Mitt
Here's why:
First - the UNDECIDEDS remaing genuinely disliake Romney and are much warmer towards the President:
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According to NBC, the 9 percent of voters who fit the bill are overwhelmingly warmer to Obama. They approve of his performance by a 48-41 margin and like him personally by a 46-29 margin, both better than his national averages. Romney, by contrast, fares much worse with a 22-46 favorability rating.
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and the polls seem to indicate that UNDECIDEDS are breaking as they almost always do historically - about down the middle...
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According to NBC, the 9 percent of voters who fit the bill are overwhelmingly warmer to Obama. They approve of his performance by a 48-41 margin and like him personally by a 46-29 margin, both better than his national averages. Romney, by contrast, fares much worse with a 22-46 favorability rating.
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and finally, there are indications that in this cycle, voter enthusiams outside the 2 parties is lower overall, meaning that many UNDECIDEDS will remain UNDECIDED - not showing up to vote at all (especially in states where there is an image f 3-4 hour waits all over the media)
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Many strategists from both parties are skeptical that the remaining undecideds will even show up to the polls at this point. But the trend of relatively even movement among undecideds, or even a slight tilt to Obama, looks plausible in the TPM Polltracker Average of the national race. Over the last week, the two candidates have ticked upwards in tandem. And in all-important Ohio, Obama is moving steadily towards 50 percent even as Romney largely holds onto his post-debate gains: