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My apologies if this has been answered already (I'm sure it has), but I was wondering if anyone knew what the truth was in regards to early voting stats in Ohio.  I have heard two completely different stories the past few weeks - some say that Obama is killing in early voting, and some say that Romney is doing great and that means he is going to win.  I realize that both sides will spin it to favor their candidate, but what is the actual truth (obviously the news won't let me know)?  I've looked into it, and I have so far been unable to find anything out.

Does anyone have any thoughts or knowledge on this?  And I don't just want to hear positive stories that are not accurate - I want facts, darn it!

Thanks in advance!

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Comment Preferences

  •  As of Saturday the Early Voting Had Not Been Quite (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Rox Girl, LordMike

    as strong as 2008. Which makes sense considering storm interference and the reduction in early voting hours.

    But there was huge turnout yesterday, lines of 2-4 hours in Columbus and Cleveland for example, so it's likely we're back up to 2008 levels. Plus today there was some limited early voting too.

    Last reports were we are indeed ahead of the Republicans in early voting. Also the Obama team has been targeting infrequent voters for the early voting activity so as to increase the number of Dems who vote.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:29:22 PM PST

    •  Lines of four hours today in Cincinnati (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Supavash

      according to some who went through on FB.

      The supposed lack of interest in this election by Democrats is a fiction. Meanwhile, Republican numbers are up on 2008, but likely not enough to make up the gap.

      Don't rest, though, GOTV.

  •  Both Sides (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ItsSimpleSimon, Rox Girl, Supavash

    The argument from the right is that Romney is doing much better than McCain did in '08 and that Obama's numbers are down from '08.  As  far as I can tell, both of these statements are true, but the picture is incomplete.

    First, of course, McCain '08 is a really low bar.  Second, absentee voting is the preferred early voting method for many republicans and this year, for the first time, absentee ballot applications were mailed to every voter in the state.  Also, thanks to a republican Governor and legislator weekend voting for all weekends except the last was eliminated.

    So early voting in republican dominated counties is up from 2008 and down slightly in democratic leaning counties.  But early voting in democratic counties is still much higher than the republican counties.  (Note that in OH we are not registered as D or R so looking at the counties that Obama or McCain carried is the best surrogate data).

    The reply from Obama campaign is that 1.  More Obama voters than Romney voters are voting early and 2. (and this is key!)  Obama is doing a better job of getting out the sporadic voters early, Romney early voters are the people who were going to vote on election day any way.

    This is from an OFA memo:

    And in Ohio, more than 179,000 non-midterm voters from counties Obama won in 2008
    have cast ballots, compared with just 91,000 non-midterm voters from Republicanleaning
    counties. Ohio does not have party registration, so how a county voted in 2008 is
    one way to measure this turnout
    In 2008 McCain had more votes on election day than Obama.  But Obama's early vote lead left him plenty of room and he still won the state by 5%.

    This year Romney is moving more of is election day voters to vote early.  Obama is ADDING new voters and sporadic voters during early voting.  Obama will end up with more votes in the end.

    •  Here are the statistics as of November 2. (0+ / 0-)

      http://www.sos.state.oh.us/...

      Note that the gap between Ballots sent by Mail and Ballots Cast by mail identifies the number of voters who will be given provisional ballots if they come to the polls tomorrow.  The gap is about 200,000 voters now, but some absentee by mail votes will come in so that number will go down.

      County-by-county statistics as of November 2:

      http://www.sos.state.oh.us/...

      To get the county info, you must click on the link titled:  County-by-County Breakdown (Click to read as .XLS)

      That's the best we can do now.

      Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

      by Ohiodem1 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:37:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  To answer, the real truth hinges on who (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    the non-primary voters are favoring and by how much. Right now, given they're mostly coming from Obama 2008 counties, I'm liking our chances.

  •  Well, I know my R mom (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    voted for Obama in Hamilton County, so they are down by 1.  She voted early.

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