Skip to main content

Obama's Battleground %s:
CO: 80
FL: 52
IA:85
NH:85
VA:80

314 EVs predicted

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  that's a lot of percentage! (4+ / 0-)

    what was it in 2008? 360 or so? Wait...they've got this thing now called the internet....lemme look it up. 365 electoral votes in 2008. Hey, 314 is also a lot.

    anyway, I'll be at an election party tomorrow night, hobnobbing with other Democrats, away from my computer. I'd love to be discussing it all with everyone here, as it happens, but won't be able to make any comments until very late. Isn't it interesting, though, that I would almost rather deal with people I've never met, except online, than people I went to school with, who I roomed with, who I worked with?

  •  WaPo: Why we are voting for President Obama: (3+ / 0-)

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:18:27 PM PST

  •  just saw it (0+ / 0-)

    just saw it - I am leery of percentages but I hope it's that big, cause Ohio is starting to look like a clusterfuck, NJ seems ripe for email voter fraud, and FL is gonna be tight -

    lord please let it be a landslide for Obama

    RB

    There are only two kinds of music - the blues and Zip Pa Dee Doo Dah - Townes Van Zandt

    by whiskeytown on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:20:33 PM PST

  •  It's just been updated (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    myrealname

    With what looks like the final prediction (both the forecast and nowcast match).

    It's Obama 315.3
    Romney 222.7

    Obama now has a 92.2% chance of winning.

    Click here for all your political gear, including new laser etching technology! Don't like mine? Make your own!

    by sgilman on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:26:28 PM PST

  •  Whew (0+ / 0-)

    I can sleep tonight, after reading this.  I have given up on everyone but Nate Silver.  He's the only voice I trust.

  •  Sweet!! :-) (0+ / 0-)

    Two weeks ago, just before the final debate, Obama was sitting on 288.  That would be the last time Willard and his pet rats would see 250.  Then Mitt's lies about Jeep spun out of control, and soon became the straw that broke the camel's back.

    Then came Hurricane Sandy, and when the choice (unspoken, though it may have been) came between partisan lust for power, and New Jersey, Gov. Chris Christie chose the people of NJ FIRST; and between him and Pres. Obama, a post-hurricane plan was put in place to get NJ back on its feet.

    Bipartisanship on display and at its best, for the whole world to see.  Republicanism, as displayed by Gov. Christie, the way it used to be, before the funny farm escapees took it over.  [I imagine he will now be persona non grata among them.]

    With the exception of maybe 7 EVs (as per Nate's board on 10/4), Obama has pretty much made up all the ground he lost from the 1st debate.  Winners know how to recover from a bad hand, and Obama has behaved like a winner before and since that debate.

    Nice to see FL (52.5%) in baby blue.

    Update:  Just as I was finishing this up, Obama has gone UP again, from 314.4 to 315.3, and from 91.4% to 92.2%.  FL is now 53.2% likelihood for Obama.

  •  About 2008 (0+ / 0-)

    What was Nate's probability of Obama's victory on the eve of the election in 2008?

  •  Thank you Nate & Kossacks (0+ / 0-)

    The President has just finished speaking in Iowa. His last campaign speech. It is now up to the voters. Thank you Nate for all your work this campaign, rising above the noise to give your analysis of the the trends of the campaign. And thanks to all you Kossacks for participating in the community that KOS set up, for being at times the only point of sanity I could find during this election. Now let's all go out and vote and let's keep change alive.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site