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The New York Times has a fantastic interactive graphic on their web page.

I just spent the last 15 minutes playing around with scenarios and am going to sleep a lot easier tonight.

He is the link: 512 Paths to the White House

Basically, the interactive graph lets the user assign winners to battleground states.  The default battlegrounds (with Nate Silvers winning % for Obama) are:
Fla. - 52%
Ohio - 91%
N.C. - 28%
Va. - 80%
Wis. - 97%
Colo. - 80%
Iowa - 85%
Nev. - 94%
N.H. - 85%

Assuming all the above states are 'toss-ups' the interactive maps calculates 431 'paths' for Obama to win with 76 paths for Rmoney.  (Rmoney is certainly between a rock and a rockier place.)

The user can assign each state a winner which causes the paths to recalculate.  For example, if I think Obama will win Wisconsin (97% chance per Nate) Rmoneys paths drop to 24.  When I add Nevada (94% per Nate) to Obama's side, it drops Rmoneys paths to just 9!  And, if I add Ohio, the last state that Mr. Silver gives an above 90% chance to, Rmoneys paths to the White House disappear.

I am a visual guy and found the interactive graphic fun to play with.

I discovered that Obama can still win even if Rmoney takes Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina.  Obama only needs to hold Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.

A take-away from The Times:

Florida is a Must Win for Romney

If Mr. Romney loses Florida, he has only one way to victory: through all the other battleground states. He has led most polls there, however, and is the favorite. If Mr. Romney wins Florida, he has 75 paths open to him.
Have fun playing.  

Oh, and get out the vote.

Mrs. ForestLake was phone banking on Friday and I knocked on doors yesterday.  We were both reminding voters where their polling place were.  Most of the people we spoke to here in Wisconsin had either already voted or were definitely going to vote on Tuesday.



Will Obama win Florida?

53%15 votes
17%5 votes
28%8 votes

| 28 votes | Vote | Results

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