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Here are the latest figures out of Iowa.  This will be my last Iowa early voting up date of the 2012 election.  

Here are the cumulative numbers for the absentee ballot requests:

Dems 312,741 (42.18%)
Reps 229,507 (30.95%)
Inds 198,263 (26.74%)
Oth 999 (negligible)

TOTAL 741,510

Here are the new ballot requests since the last report:

Dems +6,322
Reps +6,136
Inds +7,111

And now, here are the cumulative numbers for actual ballots cast:

Dems 281,966 (41.89%)
Reps 215,439 (32.01%)
Inds 174,850 (25.98%)
Oth 869 (negligible)

TOTAL 673,124

Here are the ballots cast since the previous daily report:

Dems +11,170
Reps +9,742
Inds +11,897

Once again, Democrats and Independents clearly got the better of Republicans in early voting.  I might as well repeat this once again:  Democrats have led Republicans in actual ballots cast in each and every individual daily report.  There has not been a single day when they out-voted us.  Not. One. Day.

In 2008, 545,739 votes were cast before election day.  Currently, 673,124 votes have been cast already, and the absentee ballots that are still being processed will be added to this count later.  I expect around 1.6 million people to cast a vote for President in Iowa, so this early vote represents about 42% of that total.  We now lead in ballots cast by 66,527.  By the end of early voting in 2008, we led Republicans by about 94,000 ballots cast.  By the end of early voting in 2004 (about 460,000 ballots cast) we were ahead by 52,000 ballots cast.  This is a relatively good position to be in, because 2004 was essentially a draw in Iowa, and in 2008, Obama stomped McCain by over 9 percentage points.  Being between these two scenarios = victory for Obama.

I would like to just repeat this section of my diary from yesterday:

In other news, since the beginning of October, we have gained significant ground on Republicans in Iowa in terms of voter registration.  

Here are the current statistics for active registered voters:

Dems 628,043
Reps 629,443
Inds 694,558

TOTAL 1,952,044

A razor-thin margin now separates us from taking the lead over Republicans among active voters.

Here are the additions since the beginning of October:

Dems +16,759
Reps +7,267
Inds +19,387

The great thing is that Iowa has same-day voter registration on election day and that's only going to help our cause.  In 2008, 47,000 people in Iowa registered to vote on election day.  Btw, New Hampshire and Wisconsin also have election day registration.  Therefore, if the margins are as close in those states as the polls would suggest, election day registration could put us over the top.

These figures look good, but there is still work to be done!  GOTV!

Here is a link to the Iowa SOS website:


How do you feel today?

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| 140 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  My daughter got in her early vote in IA (5+ / 0-)

    Had us bring her absentee ballot back from the UK. She was determined!

    Forget about the pursuit of happiness; that way lies grief. Concentrate on the happiness of pursuit.

    by kimtcga on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 06:10:13 AM PST

  •  Thanks for all your hard work on this and Nevada! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BasharH, FightingRegistrar, Danali
  •  This good as far as it goes (0+ / 0-)

    These are good descriptive statistics but they do not go far enough analytically. Without a fact-based, not anecdotally-based, understanding of how Independents will break, it tells us little.

    Can someone please provides the facts on how Independents broke in Iowa on 04 and 08 and from 2012 poliing data??  

  •  Thank you (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I've enjoyed your daily updates.  It will be disorienting after it is all over and there will be no polls or early voting reports to obsessively read through.

    You have the power to change America. Yes We Can. Yes We Did. Yes We Will.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 06:22:35 AM PST

  •  Unlikely voters (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Same day registration makes accurate polling very, very difficult. If the ground game is any good at all, the votes for the Democrats will be under polled.

    This is a very good sign.  

    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

    by MoDem on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 06:23:36 AM PST

  •  How come Iowa is a swing-state? (demographics) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FightingRegistrar, luckylizard

    Isn't it demographically similar to Nebraska or South Dakota? It's the same way I don't understand how come NH isn't solid blue.

    •  I'm asking this from complete ignorance BTW. (0+ / 0-)
      •  Answer Here (0+ / 0-)

        1) Had really only one newspaper for years...the Union leader was extremely conservative
        2) No Sales Tax ( actually has high Property tax)...vacationers also pay the sales tax on Skiing Condos
        3) they have almost no cultural stuff that is tax free in Mass...they say they have a symphony ( Boston Pops).... Museums ( all in Boston) we pay for all the police / services etc. and all that stuff pays no taxes to us
        4) they have a very efficient state government...very homogeneous state population and they make it work well for what it offers...both dems and reps

    •  Not really sure. It never made much sense to me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      either, except that for whatever reason, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin almost always vote Democratic at the presidential level and states that are similar demographically, like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska do not.  However, I do believe that if we were to make a major effort in some of these so-called red states, we could at least make them competitive.

      •  Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

        What makes MN different is the large metro areas of Minneapolis and St Paul along with the union heavy Iron Range can  generally overcome the rest of the state which is a lot like South Dakota.

        I would also add the DFL/Democrats have done a good job becoming a bigger force in secondary cities like Rochester, Mankato, and St Cloud. This strength in 2nd tier cities is what keeps people like Tim Walz almost unbeatable in a mostly rural district and why Jim Graves is knocking on the door in the 6th District against Bachmann.

    •  The population centers (0+ / 0-)

      are mostly in the eastern half of the state and tend to vote Democratic.  The part of the state like Nebraska and S. Dakota is sparsely populated.  Add to that a surprisingly diverse population*, due in great part to a former GOP governor, Robert Ray, as well as many African Americans in our larger cities and towns, and we're not quite as lily-white and rural as it might seem.

      *Gov. Ray saw the boat people from Vietnam and wanted to help.  He worked really hard to get us some kind of special designation from the State Dept. so that we could welcome all kinds of immigrants here.  We have many different East and Southeast Asians, as well as Bosnians and other eastern Europeans.  We've had many waves of Hispanics dating back to WWI when we begged them to come here and work in our factories while our men were overseas.  We didn't treat them so well when the boys came home, but many families trace their ancestry back to those early Mexican immigrants.

      -7.62, -7.28 "Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a broken winged bird that cannot fly." -Langston Hughes

      by luckylizard on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:36:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looks like a 6% win for Obama in Iowa (0+ / 0-)

    based on these numbers.

    "The Obama Administration has been an unmitigated disaster" - Osama Bin Laden

    by Explorer8939 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 06:41:52 AM PST

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