There have been many final predictions, many seeking bragging rights. I initially just posted mine as a comment, but was encouraged to make a diary out of them, so here it is:
We are HERE! Feel the doomy jitters of pre-election thrill. Doom
Removing my tongue from my cheek, here are my final predictions. Seriously. These are all you need. I'm pretty awesome. K?
First, the big one, the election of most immediate significance for the rest of the world that has to deal with American foreign and economic policy, the Presidential election.
National Popular Vote Percentage:
Barack Obama - 50.8%
Mitt Romney - 47.5%
Other - 1.7%
As you are all no doubt aware, in America we have a dual system. The National popular vote really doesn't mean anything, though it is important in terms of legitimacy. But the real elector of Presidents is the Electoral College, which is based around allocating certain numbers of votes to each state based on population. It's a pretty indicator really. It's only failed twice in American history; 1876 and 2000 (but Gore barely won the popular in 2000). This time around it favors Obama, who looks very good in the "swing states" while only up very narrowly nationally.
So let me go through the big swing states and outline how I think they fall. First, here is a resource map to see how much each state counts towards the electoral vote: http://en.wikipedia.org/... An Electoral vote is generally representative of about 500,000 people in population. All states are winner take all, save for Nebraska and Maine, which are unlikely to split any votes this year. They are automatically allocated based on who is certified as winning the state.
So, who likes the alphabet?
Colorado, 9 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin: Between 2-3 percentage points
Florida, 29 Electoral votes: Obama win. Close race. Margin: Between .5-1.5 percentage points
Iowa, 6 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin: Between 1.5-3 percentage points
Missouri, 10 Electoral votes: Stark partisan divide, but never really contested. Romney. Margin: 7-8 percentage points
Nevada, 6 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin: Between 6-7 percentage points.
New Hampshire, 4 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin: Between 3-4 percentage points.
North Carolina, 15 Electoral votes: Romney win. Margin: Between .5-1.5 percentage points.
Ohio, 18 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin: Between 3-4.5 percentage points
Pennsylvania, 20 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin: 6-7.5 percentage points
Wisconsin, 10 Electoral votes: Obama win. Margin 4-5 percentage points.
Onto the lower house of our Congress. I could do twenty or thirty pages of briefings on the 50-60 competitive races going on. But to save the time and boredom, I'll just predict the net gains. A couple of states, particularly Illinois and California, could see a lot of Democratic pick ups. But on the whole redistricting was pretty brutal to Democrats. Right now, after the 2010 election, the composition of the House is 241, R, 191 D. I project a 17 seat Democratic pick up (this is a slightly conservative estimate. That will leave Republicans in control, but with a considerably reduced majority. 208 D, 224 R.
Pick Ups:
CA-07
CA-10
CA-26
CA-36
CA-41
CA-47
CA-52
CO-06
FL-02
FL-18
FL-22
FL-26
IL-08
IL-10
IL-11
IL-13
IL-17
MD-06
MI-11
MI-01
WI-07
MN-08
NH-01
NH-02
NY-24
Losses:
UT-04
OK-02
AR-04
NC-08
NC-13
NC-11
MA-06
NY-27
In the Senate, our upper house of Congress, members are elected on a state by state basis, two to each a state, for six year terms, in tiered elections with 1/3rd of the Senate being up ever two years. There's something about the Senate. Democrats have a lucky juju or something, because cycle after cycle, save for 2010 (and even then they caught so many lucky breaks) everything seems to fall their way.
So, let me just lay 'em out. The competitive ones
Michigan The two-term incumbent is Debbie Stabenow. This was supposed to be a top target for Republicans. Then their recruit, a former Congressman and Chairman of the importance Intelligence and Security Committee, Peter Hoekstra, ran this ad: https://www.youtube.com/... Singlehandedly destroyed his campaign, which has been downhill since, before the popular and affable Stabenow in the Democratic leaning midwestern state. It's set to be a 57-41 or so beat down.
North Dakota After Kent Conrad, the popular long time Democratic incumbent who held this seat and chaired the powerful Budget Committee in the Senate, announced his retirement, pundits considered this an automatic pick up for Republicans. Then former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp got into the race late last year and has really out done the much disliked, 1-term congressman and former state legislator, Rick Berg. Her closing ad was simply amazing, and I rarely say this about political ads: https://www.youtube.com/... She's run a fantastic media and grassroots campaign in a conservative and very rural state (2nd smallest population, 4th least densely populated). Heitkamp has done enough to make me think, with the polling, that she will narrowly hold onto this seat for Democrats. 51-48 Heitkamp.
Montana Next door to North Dakota, the more mountainous, and sprawling state of Montana. I mean sprawling. Montana is 10,000 square miles larger than the nation of Germany. Except with a population of one million as opposed to eighty something million. First term incumbent Democrat, Jon Tester is a bit of a populist, and has run a superb campaign in this rural, conservative-leaning (and libertarian oriented), state. It's been a super tight race, with Republicans putting forth 6-term U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg. But Rehberg's been hampered by a lackluster campaign and allegations relating to a drunk boating accident. I've met Tester while working as a page in the Senate. He's a real rancher and larger than life fellow; he's actually missing a couple of fingers on one hand from a meat grinder accident when he was younger. Here's one of his most noted ads of the cycle: https://www.youtube.com/... 49.5-48 Tester victory in the percent margins, with the rest going third party of course.
Wisconsin I lack the time and energy and patience to keep going into so much detail. Openly gay U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin has surprised folks by out-campaigning and out-hustling former 4 term Governor (that's a real rarity in America, to spend that long as Governor, that's 16 years, though he only served 14 of them) Tommy Thompson. If I had to say why he hasn't done as well as expected, aside from his 70 year age and lack of involvement on the campaign, it's because he sounds like this: https://www.youtube.com/... Suz is into this one. Baldwin will be the first openly elected gay member of the U.S. Senate. 51-48 Baldwin. And yes, Thompson does say late in the video, "We are Red and they are Blue! And when we get done they are going to be black and blue! BLACK AND BLUE!" Just watch the sordid thing.
Florida Congressman, son of a former Senator, Connie Mack has ran a terrible campaign against two term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. I'll be curt: Nelson wins 54-45. (These are all rounded up estimations, a little more simplified than the Presidential ones)
Virginia Former Senator and Virginia Governor George Allen is trying to win back his Senate seat this year. The one he lost following his use of a racial slur against an Indian Democratic tracker in 2006, and revelations that he liked to use the n-word in College and possibly stuffed dead deer heads in the mail boxes of black people as a college prank. Former Democratic Virginia Governor and ex-DNC Chairman Tim Kaine is running this time and he's ahead, clearly, in this close race. 51-48 Tim Kaine victory.
Ohio Special interests spent 31 million dollars in outside money on attack ads against first term incumbent Democrat, Sherrod Brown, who is a proud and active progressive leader in the Senate, representing a midwestern swing state. They did it in support of Josh Mandel. The 31 year old State Treasurer who looks like a high schooler and sounds like Michael Cera. He's also one of the worst candidates in the nation, having become so thoroughly disliked that even staunchly Republican news outlets and newspapers bash him for his hypocrisy and refusal to state how he would vote on certain issues. Brown's always remained well-liked and popular, despite all the money on negative ads. Brown, 53-46.
Indiana First the State Treasurer Richard Mourdock primaried wildly popular, moderate conservative Republican Dick Lugar, a 6-term Senator who had served the state in the Senate since 1976 on a platform of tea party conservative activism. Mourdock declared that bipartisanship was when the other party agreed with him, then he implied rape was intended by god in a debate, when defending why he opposes abortion in all cases. His opponent, three term Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly has been all over him and been propelled into a narrow favorite in this Republican leaning, but practical, state. Donnelly wins, 49-47, a Democratic pick up.
Nevada Bleh. Derpa derp. Ich hab' Äpfel in meinem Kopf. Congressman Shelly Berkley is up, I believe, against former Congressman and Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller, currently an appointed incumbent. Obama should narrowly carry her over the edge. 48-47 Berkley. Democratic pick up. Democrats +2.
Missouri Todd Akin. Oh Todd Akin. Most politicians avoid implying women claim they're raped when they really aren't raped. Especially when those politicians are gaunt, 62 year old men. But he went there, talking about legitimate rape to explain why he too, opposes abortion unilaterally. But he's also declared Social Security and student loan programs to be part of the "stage 4 cancer of socialism". In case anyone forgot about his sexism, he later compared his opponent, first term incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, a former State Auditor and County District Attorney, to a dog, with an added joke from his aid that she would be a "bull shits you." Did I mention it's been revealed now that he was arrested 8 terms in the 1980s in abortion clinic protests? Yeah. He'll get 44% of the vote though in Missouri because he's not a Democrat. But McCaskill will get 51%.
Connecticut Yeah. Linda McMahon of the Worldwide Wrestling Entertainment fame is running again as a Republican in a deep blue state. It's only close because she's spent 41 million dollars out of her own pocket to win it. So she's spent nearly 100 million dollars now on two losing U.S. Senate races (after spending big last cycle in Connecticut's other Senate seat and losing). This is coming from someone who didn't even have a record of voting and almost none in elected office until she decided one day, in 2010, that she wanted to be a U.S. Senator. She's pretty vapid and dishonest, but it shows what money can do in politics. 3 term U.S. Representative Chris Murphy though will win the seat for Democrats, placing a solid progressive where Joe Lieberman used to be. Murphy wins, 53-46.
Maine Popular three term incumbent and noted Republican moderate Olympia Snowe retired. And then former Governor Angus King jumped in and has dominated a three way race ever since. King is running as an independent, however he's decidedly left of center and has been a prominent Obama supporter. A pick up for Democrats even if he doesn't caucus with them. King 51-35-14. Dems at +3 in the Senate.
Massachusetts The seminal race between Republican super star Scott Brown, whose 2010 special election win was a fluke that put Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat in Republican hands, in such a deep blue state. Progressive hero Elizabeth Warren, one of the architects of the Dodd-Frank Bill, is running, and has run a fantastic campaign. She's outshone Brown, put together a huge grassroots organization, and crushed him in the debates. Brown has gone hard negative too, in the tail end of the campaign, seeking to blunt her momentum. It's probably hurt him by ruining his nice guy image. Warren wins 53-47. Democratic pick up. Total Democrat gains. 4.
Arizona If I were to pick one candidate I want to lose more than any other besides Mandel, Akin and Mourdock, it would be 6 term U.S. Representative Jeff Flake. He's lobbied for Uranium mining in the Grand Canyon. And lobbied for the Apartheid government of South Africa in the 1980s. He's a "libertarian" who voted for defund Planned Parenthood during the anti-abortion crusade. He's simply appalling. But this is Arizona. The white voters here elected Jan Brewer and continually reelect Joe Arpaio. I can't wait till the Hispanic vote outpaces all the rich white geriatric retirement communities entirely. Richard Carmona has run a great campaign though. But loses 50-48.
Elsewhere, Democrats will narrowly lose the seat of retiring Democratic incumbent Ben Nelson in Nebraska, despite the strong campaign of former Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey. Generic conservative Republican Deb Fischer wins 52-48. D - 1, total pick up: +3 Caveat with this last race, Kerrey has a lot of momentum, and an upset isn't unlikely.
So, Democrats end up with a 56-44 majority, and with inevitable rule changes coming to reform the filibuster and various archaic methods of obstruction and hold up, they'll be able to effectively do a lot more than they have in the past. Though I expect the Republican House to be tough to deal with.
Here are some short gubernatorial predictions:
Democratic holds:
Delaware
Washington
Vermont
New Hampshire
Missouri
Montana
West Virginia
Party switch:
North Carolina (To Republicans)
Republican hold:
Indiana
North Dakota
Utah
State Legislatures:
Arkansas:
I'm going to go with my gut and give state Democrats the benefit of the doubt. And say they hold onto both houses of the legislature.
West Virginia:
Democrats will maintain their legislative dominance.
Kentucky:
The current split will remain. Republicans hold on to the State Senate, Democrats hold on to the State House of Representatives.
Washington:
Democrats will hold both houses of the legislature.
Oregon:
Democrats will hold onto the State Senate and break the tie on the House.
Nevada:
Democrats expand their majorities in both houses.
California:
Democrats have a good chance of reaching that important 2/3rds majority in each house of the legislature.
Maine:
I hope to see Democrats take back both houses of the legislature from the Tea Party revolution that upended traditional Maine politics two years ago.
New Hampshire:
Democrats will probably make big gains. But not enough to take control again. The NH legislature is very tumultous.
Arizona:
Democrats actually have a remarkably good chance to retake the State Senate due to a friendly redistricting plan. It would be a major step towards halting the radically conservative legislative agenda of the state in recent years and stop the far-right from controlling all ends of the government.
Alaska:
The big question is whether the the coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats remains in control of the State Senate. It should.
Kansas:
Republicans primaried half a dozen incumbents out of office, (including a sitting Majority Leader), in a purge of moderate Republicans that leaves Democrats posed for some gains in this overwhelmingly Republican legislature.
Florida:
With fair redistricting, Democrats should pick up a few seats. The legislature is overwhelmingly Republican though, and these gains won't move the needle enough.
New York:
Democrats already have a masive majority in the House, and this year are even favorites to win back the Senate by a narrow margin.
Pennsylvania:
The House is huge in PA, so it defies gerrymandering and Democrats are posed for at least a few pick ups. Elsewhere, in the Senate, Democrats are having a good year, with a potential 2-3 pick ups that could move the chamber closer to Democratic control.
Minnesota:
Democrats are expected to romp under a very favorable new map, with the Republican-controlled legislature deeply unpopular and the state party in shambles. Democrats should have wide majorities in both chambers of this legislature after this election.
Iowa:
Democrats are struggling to hold on to the State Senate and seem marginally favored in that regard.
Texas:
The only real race of interest is whether Wendy Davis wins reelection in her more conservative (but Democratic-trending and swingish) suburban Dallas-Forth Worth district, which would cement her status as of the two biggest rising stars in the Texas Democratic Party.
Colorado:
Democrats are favored to do well, holding on, if not expanding, their narrow Senate majority, while retaking the House after a Republican swing in 2010.
Wisconsin:
Democrats think they'll make some gains in the House, while they fight tooth and nail to hold on to the Senate or at least keep it tied 17-17, so that moderate-to-liberal Republican Dale Schultz can continue to keep the conservative wing in check.
Michigan:
Democrats think the Senate is out of reach. But are cautiously optimistic that they could possibly take back the State House, which Republicans won in 2010. Despite the better economy. Synder and the Republican state legislature are pretty unpopular due to a series of very conservative legislation, and face a steep backlash in the UP especially over rural education funding.
Those are all the big state legislative races to watch.
P.S. While Dkos does have reader gauges, these aren't entirely accurate. I always appreciate users who vote in my poll as that gives a more accurate count of readership. Which is always nice to know for something you worked hard on; sucks to feel like you are talking to a wall.