GOPers often liked to claim that "the US is a center-right country!" The correct response could be:
Really? Is that why the GOP presidential candidate has gotten a plurality of the popular vote precisely ONCE in the past SIX elections? And that one time, 2004, was the SMALLEST POPULAR VOTE MARGIN by which a President has been re-elected in US history?
Yesterday morning, that last factoid looked to be in jeopardy. After losing the 2000 popular vote contest to Gore, in 2004 Bush II beat Kerry in the popular vote by about 2.5%, 62,040,610 to 59,028,444 or a margin of 3,012,166 votes. This was the smallest popular vote margin by which a sitting President had won re-election, replacing Woodrow Wilson in 1916 who beat Charles Evans Hughes by 3.1% (9,126,868 popular votes to 8,548,728). Yesterday morning, Obama's lead was under 2% -- perhaps not a big deal to some, especially as Obama won the Electoral College quite handily (where Bush's margin over Kerry was the second smallest behind the Wilson/Hughes race).
But, hey, it seems a shame that any record for futility that's held by The Shrub should be erased. And, as the numbers continue to come in from blue states like NY, CA and WA, there is a decent chance that Obama's popular vote margin will top Bush's.
The current status below the Longest Line Between Two Oranges:
The latest national numbers I can find this morning have Obama up by 2.3%, 50.4% to 48.1% or 60,662,601 to 57,821,399, or a margin of 2,841,202. but according to CNN.com, many states still have significant votes waiting to be counted.
Many of these, like PA (98% counted), FL (97%), TX (96%), and NC (99%) are almost complete and can therefore have little impact on the margin. Others like AK (68%), AZ (71%) and OR (75%) are too small and/or too close to have a big impact.
But NY (14% still out and currently showing a 27% advantage for Obama), WA (45% out and a 22% advantage), and especially CA (31% out and a 20% advantage) could be enough to allow Obama to expand his margin beyond Shrub's.
By my calculations:
NY has counted 6,075,421 votes. If 14% remain, that's an additional 989,022. If these break the same way as the first 86% did 63% - 36% Obama), that would mean an additional 267,036 added to the Obama margin.
For WA, the numbers would be 2,103,783 counted, 45% or 1,721,277 to be counted, potentially increasing the margin by 378681.
And for CA, the numbers would be 9,227,253 counted, 31% or 4,145,577 to be counted, potentially increasing the margin by 829,115.
Add these up and, assuming all the other outstanding votes from small, even and/or mostly counted states even out, Obama's margin would be 2,841,202 + 267,036 + 378681 + 829,115 = 4,316,034.
That would be 1,303,868 more than Bush's margin over Kerry.
Now, we don't know yet how many people voted in 2012 vs. 2004, so the percentage margin that those numbers would produce is still a bit fuzzy. The feeling seems to be that the number will be something less than the just under 130 million who did so in 2008. But let's assume an even 130 million votes in this election:
4,316,034 divided by 130 million would give Obama a winning margin in the popular vote of 3.32%! More than Wilson's 3.1% edge over Hughes. And a damn sight more than Shrub's 2.5% edge over Kerry!
All hail Bush the Appointed, still holder for the smallest popular vote victory margin in US history!
And if these numbers hold up, the only time the GOP will have won the popular vote in the past SIX Presidential elections is when in 2004 they won it by the SMALLEST ever margin for a President running for re-election! Center-right country? Really?