Skip to main content

Kos frontpaged this.  So in this diary, I've linked to some details about the Romney Campaign's unskewed numbers.

Romney was shellshocked to lose.  His campaign staff felt "suckerpunched." They really believed they were going to win.  Why?  They believed their internal polls, which were every bit as much "unskewed" as those by Dean-o Chambers:

Tuesday's outcome laid bare this truth: The two campaigns placed very different bets on the nature of the 2012 electorate, and the Obama campaign won decisively.

Romney officials had modeled an electorate that looked something like a mix of 2004 and 2008, only this time, Democratic turnout would be depressed, and the most motivated voters would be whites, seniors, Republicans and independents.

Magical unskewed unicorn numbers below the fold...

Heading into Election Day, the Romney campaign's final set of internal poll numbers showed their candidate with a 6-point lead in New Hampshire, a 3-point lead in Colorado,
Whoa--six points in New Hampshire! What were they smoking?
a 2-point lead in Iowa, a 3-point lead in Florida and near ties in Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Ohio was their biggest problem. According to the campaign's internal polls obtained by CNN, Romney was trailing in the must-win state by a full 5 points on the Sunday before the election, the last day of tracking.
And yet, knowing they had no chance in must-win Ohio, Romney had a transition website prepared, but no concession speech.

Given that denial of data and other facts is the modus operandi of the current GOP, it seems unlikely that they'll avoid further shellshocks and suckerpunches. Onward to 2014 and 2016!

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  This continues to make me laugh. (15+ / 0-)

    I had been assuming they were bullshitting to put on a brave face going into Election Day. It never entered my mind that they actually believed they were going to win. Maybe the Romneys themselves, they're basically clueless, but the campaign staff? The pros? I never guessed they believed they would win.

    Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

    by NMDad on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:47:25 PM PST

    •  It's like we were almost taken over (5+ / 0-)

      by a parallel universe only 5% different from our own.

      Everything would look and feel uncannily similar, except maybe for the conical heads and green blood.

      "I was a big supporter of waterboarding" - Dick Cheney 2/14/10

      by Bob Love on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 06:59:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Makes you wonder: if R$ had been elected, what ... (7+ / 0-)

      What would the Romney Administration have believed, if he had been elected? Would they believe their own internal memos about Iran, and the great benefits to world peace and US national security if we launched or approved John Bolton's bombing raids?

      Would Romney and aides have believed the clap-trap coming from his economics advisor, Dr. Glenn "Give It Your Best Shot" Hubbard?

      Would he have believe nonsensical right-wing "studies" (!) coming out of the Paul Weyrich founded Heritage Foundation, or the other right-wing 'think'-tanks founded by various right-wing donors? About health, economics, taxes, the environment, pollution, climate chaos, poverty, marriage, foreign relations, etc.?

      I mean, really think about it: if they were self-deluded by the very polls upon which they depended to gain office, what would they have believed once in power, when they no longer depended on winning majority votes?

      It's even more scary than I'd thought.

      •  It's what happened under Bush (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sharon Wraight, NMDad, Footbag, LordMike

        Remember how Iraqis would greet us with flowers and parades? And how the war would pay for itself with Iraqi oil? And how tax cuts for millionaires would create unrivaled prosperity? And how getting rid of regulations would encourage businesses and jobs?

        Yeah, we already had a good example of how these idiot delusions work out.

        NO. MORE. DEALS. Is that clear enough?

        by Fordmandalay on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:39:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Me too, (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NMDad, dougymi, sfgb, LordMike

      But no the laughing part. I really thought they were putting were bullshitting so their investors would keep the dollars flowing. I thought it was all a Bain style ponzi scheme or something. I never in a million years thought that the campaign actually BELIEVED the horseshit about unskewed polls. There were even diaries here speculating about how well or poorly they were all masking the reality of impending defeat in the last weeks. I trusted Nate Silver and the math. Sure I was a little nervous. A 90% chance of winning means a 10% chance of losing and I remember election night 2000 all too well. But still, if you're odds are that crappy, you prepare your self for defeat.

      Thank all the deities that ever were and ever shall be and well as the reality based community and all the people who can actually count and know that Obama is actually doing a good job that our President was re-elected. People who invent their own math and then believe it to be real shouldn't be allowed anywhere near oval office. And we must do everything we can to purge them from Congress.

  •  Mitt has always gotten what he wanted (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chiefsjen, SherwoodB, sfgb, LordMike

    Daddy got him what he wanted, or his rich friends did - he never had to actually do anything on his own, so he believed he would always get what he wanted.

    Run for President and never open your tax returns? Check, I'm Mitt Romney, I don't have to do what everyone else does.

    Coast your way through 20 primary debates while all your opponents implode? Check. I'm Mitt Romney. I always get what I want.

    Reality's a bitch, Mittster. Now go away and take your whole clan with you.

    I am progressive. I am liberal. I make no apologies. - Kos

    My political compass: - 8.38,-6.97

    by pucklady on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:11:11 PM PST

  •  It really is... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sfgb, LordMike

    ...unreal how completely amateur his campaign really was. Either that or no one had the balls to ever tell him the truth like.."Sir, the lying isn't working." or "Sir, you might want to consider showing your tax returns-your FATHER started the whole thing." or even "Governor, the polls are telling us that you have basically no way of winning this thing-are you sure you want to keep lying about the Jeeps?"

    "Javelin, Jockey details, all posts, discontinue."

    by bradreiman on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 07:54:40 PM PST

  •  Wow! (0+ / 0-)

    The romney's pollster was the head of Public Opinion Strategies.  This is a big time GOP firm that was very well respected.  Now, we see that it was just a POS.  This is a big loss for them.  A politico article a week ago said that if POS got things wrong, they'd lose a lot of business from future GOP clients.

    POS just might disappear after this massive fail!


    by LordMike on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 08:28:54 PM PST

  •  What a ship of fools (0+ / 0-)

    Any political/social scientist in the country could have told them that there was absolutely zero chance of them winning PA if they were losing OH by 5 points.  It's just not possible.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site