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Much has been made of Karl Rove's strangely worded statements on Fox News that Obama's team won because they “succeeded in suppressing the vote.” Note, though, that Rove is not using the word in the classic use of actual "voter suppression" of the sort he's employed. Maybe it's a Freudian slip. He's using it in a broader context to mean suppressing enthusiasm, of a character assassin whispering in the ear of white America. Karl Rove sees things quite literally in black and white.

But even at that, he's wrong. Republicans got the same percentage of the white vote as they got in the last election. What Turdblossom is really grousing about is his failed math based on a racial strategy.

From the start of the whole contrived billionaire-backed Tea Party campaigns, the bet the Rovian confederates made was that they could subtly use economic arguments to reflect underlying racial resentment in order to increase white turnout for them. ("They want stuff. We work for it.")

Yes, the Latino vote increased, but it was figured into their math. They truly thought they could surpass it by leveraging racial resentment in whites. If Latinos and African-Americans went wholly to Obama, it would only serve their model of race baiting. It was their old idea of conquer through division raised from surface tension to lapping waves of anger. Deflect the class warfare between the middle class and the plutocrats (99% vs. the 1%) by turning the election into an implicit race war (roughly 64% white vs. the 36% other). Seems like better odds, right?

This is why Rove and his cronies were entirely convinced they were going to win despite Nate Silver and legitimate polls falling squarely against them. They were using a different model of white voter turnout based on painstaking market research and tested strategies from the lower turnout mid-terms -- and this is why Rove had such a wicked witch on-air meltdown as his model imploded before his eyes. Their expected +5% increase in white voter turnout didn't materialize. Their math was not the math. It was confounding. The white vote must have been mysteriously suppressed by those dirty dems!

Only it wasn't. The real story was not some clever Romney-demonizing message that Democrats targeted toward white voters. Rove is scapegoating according to his own understanding of how elections are manipulated. He's grasping for answers to something he clearly doesn't understand. It has to be some sort of suppression! But the real story is not the Dems. The real story is the voter suppression the Republicans inflicted upon themselves, specifically from the women's vote.

Rachel Maddow breaks it down pretty clearly here:

All along the Republicans were rolling merrily along with a self-destruct bug planted in their machine -- the fanatical, extreme Pro-Life movement that insisted on ideological purity. And when their chosen ideologues finally spoke outside of their own self-affirming echo chamber, women -- their own women, all women -- heard where they were planning on taking them and said, NO YOU DON'T. That's where those extra margins were lost. Not from a hurricane. Not from opposition advertising. It came from within, from the darkest places of their own soul, misty-eyed over forcing women to carry to term rape babies and incest babies and proclaiming that it was all God's will.

The problem for them is that the Pro-Life movement was a necessary part of their tri-cornered coalition (hate, pro-life, and billionaire bucks). The Pro-Lifers are their ground soldiers, mobilizing and staffing and believing in the cause, culling congregations of churches, knocking on doors, manning phones in much the role that the LGBT community fills for democrats. What the Rovian players failed to recognize, however, was that the Pro-Life movement contained a self-destruct button the moment it achieved or nearly achieved its goal. Women's suffrage was ratified in 1920, you dopes.

But now the button has been pressed and their party has imploded. They are in quite a fix. The Republicans can no longer win with this strategy. They can increase Latino votes, and they still cannot win by holding onto the Pro-Lifers for last I checked, half of Latinos were women, too. They cannot gain Latinos and African-Americans by holding court on race issues. They cannot increase the ever-narrowing margins of the white vote without utilizing implicit bigotry. They lose their foot soldiers if they distance themselves from the Pro-Lifers. The future of the Republican Party is now a no-win situation. And it is this bucket of water that has been thrown onto Karl Rove as he sits and melts in a puddle amid the Crossroads of his own doing.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The Global Positioning System is based on (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ignatzmouse, Wee Mama

    the math.

    Clearly Karl's GPS was miscalibrated.

  •  The GOP conundrum (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a gilas girl, Wee Mama, tampaedski, ankae

    Demographics are against the GOP so long as they exercise such hatred and contempt for Latinos, Blacks, and women.  They need to move closer to the center where there is, and always will be, support for an honest conservative party.

    Alligator-filled moats and electrified fences?  Don't say that.  Sandra Fluke is a slut?  Stop that stuff.  Rape pregnancy is a gift from God?  Nope.  But they can't stop.   They gleefully embraced a far right made mad by a black man in the White House, because they thought their energy would help the party. Having given them power they will find it hard to take to take the party back.  Herman Cain has already talked third party.  

    The GOP's problem is that they reversed William Buckley's wisdom and let the John Birchers back into the legitimate conservative movement.  They turned the party over to them.  Now they are caught.  

    A new birth of freedom..

    by docterry on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:09:47 AM PST

    •  My thoughts, exactly. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Wee Mama

      They can't move away from their current base because they won't win any elections.  They can't stay with their current base because they won't win over any of the other groups they need to be a force on the national front.

      Quite the conundrum.   I feel bad for them.  Ha! no I don't.
      They made this bed with great care and attention.  They were willing to drive a stake through America's heart for a few dollars more (or a few billion more, to be accurate).  

      It is poetic justice that they are being ravaged by the slavering beast they set loose among us.

      •  The reason they can't move away from this (0+ / 0-)

        is because those who are in positions of power on the right cannot see any other reality from the one they have created. To them, women don't matter. Women's opinions don't matter and don't need to be considered.

        They have their token attractive blond news presenters, but the opinions of other women, including those in their families, are of no consequence to them personally. This is the message echoing within the bubble. They decided what is important to women, told them over and over that it is the only important thing to them. And they still believe it to be true.

  •  I agree somewhat (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a gilas girl, Wee Mama, Mrs M

    The GOP obsession with clarifying rape definitely led to their destruction, but I think the GOP war against affordable birth control under the guise of religious freedom was their undoing.

    The problem is not abortion; that is the symptom. Abortions happen, legal or not. The problem is unwanted pregnancies. You cannot be pro-life and anti-affordable birth control. The GOP blew it with their all-male panels on the female reproductive systems.

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