One recurring theme is that a lot of non-White people voted for Obama. But so did a lot of White people. After all, you can't win all of New England without getting a lot of White folk to vote for you.  I got to wondering what proportion of White voters voted for Obama in each state.

Simplifying assumptions I had to make some assumptions. I assumed that Obama won 95% of the Black vote in every state, and 75% of the non-White, non-Black vote in every state. These seem reasonable and modest changes in the numbers do not make big differences in the results

The table is below the Kos Croissant, and thanks to Palantir for help with the formatting.

In each row there is the state abbreviation, the proportion White, Black and Other (per the census) the proportion Obama won (as of yesterday), then my estimate of the Obama support that came from Blacks (05% of the proportion Black), others (75% times prop. other) and the remainder. Finally, the proportion of White voters who voted Obama.

State Prop white Prop black Prop other Prop Obama Black Obama support Other Obama support remainder White Obama support
MS 0.59 0.37 0.039 0.44 0.352 0.029 0.059 0.1
LA 0.626 0.32 0.054 0.41 0.304 0.041 0.066 0.105
AL 0.685 0.262 0.053 0.38 0.249 0.04 0.091 0.133
GA 0.597 0.305 0.098 0.45 0.29 0.074 0.087 0.145
OK 0.722 0.074 0.204 0.33 0.07 0.153 0.107 0.148
UT 0.861 0.011 0.128 0.25 0.01 0.096 0.144 0.167
SC 0.662 0.279 0.059 0.44 0.265 0.044 0.131 0.197
AR 0.77 0.15 0.08 0.37 0.143 0.06 0.168 0.218
WY 0.907 0.008 0.085 0.28 0.008 0.064 0.209 0.23
TX 0.704 0.118 0.178 0.41 0.112 0.134 0.164 0.234
TN 0.776 0.167 0.057 0.39 0.159 0.043 0.189 0.243
AK 0.667 0.033 0.300 0.420 0.031 0.225 0.164 0.245
ID 0.891 0.006 0.103 0.33 0.006 0.077 0.247 0.277
KS 0.838 0.059 0.103 0.38 0.056 0.077 0.247 0.294
NC 0.685 0.215 0.1 0.49 0.204 0.075 0.211 0.308
NE 0.861 0.045 0.094 0.38 0.043 0.071 0.267 0.31
KY 0.878 0.078 0.044 0.38 0.074 0.033 0.273 0.311
AZ 0.73 0.04 0.23 0.44 0.038 0.173 0.23 0.314
WV 0.939 0.034 0.027 0.35 0.032 0.02 0.297 0.317
SD 0.859 0.013 0.128 0.4 0.012 0.096 0.292 0.34
VA 0.686 0.194 0.12 0.51 0.184 0.09 0.236 0.344
ND 0.9 0.012 0.088 0.39 0.011 0.066 0.313 0.347
MO 0.828 0.116 0.056 0.44 0.11 0.042 0.288 0.348
IN 0.843 0.091 0.066 0.44 0.086 0.05 0.304 0.361
FL 0.75 0.16 0.09 0.5 0.152 0.068 0.281 0.374
NV 0.662 0.081 0.257 0.52 0.077 0.193 0.25 0.378
MT 0.894 0.004 0.102 0.42 0.004 0.077 0.34 0.38
OH 0.827 0.122 0.051 0.5 0.116 0.038 0.346 0.418
NM 0.684 0.021 0.295 0.53 0.02 0.221 0.289 0.422
MD 0.582 0.294 0.124 0.62 0.279 0.093 0.248 0.426
PA 0.819 0.108 0.073 0.52 0.103 0.055 0.363 0.443
CO 0.813 0.04 0.147 0.51 0.038 0.11 0.362 0.445
MI 0.789 0.142 0.069 0.54 0.135 0.052 0.353 0.448
CA 0.576 0.062 0.362 0.59 0.059 0.272 0.26 0.451
DE 0.689 0.214 0.097 0.59 0.203 0.073 0.314 0.456
IL 0.715 0.145 0.14 0.57 0.138 0.105 0.327 0.458
NJ 0.686 0.137 0.177 0.58 0.13 0.133 0.317 0.462
MN 0.853 0.052 0.095 0.53 0.049 0.071 0.409 0.48
WI 0.862 0.063 0.075 0.53 0.06 0.056 0.414 0.48
WA 0.773 0.036 0.191 0.55 0.034 0.143 0.373 0.482
IA 0.913 0.029 0.058 0.52 0.028 0.044 0.449 0.492
OR 0.836 0.018 0.146 0.54 0.017 0.11 0.413 0.494
NH 0.939 0.011 0.05 0.52 0.01 0.038 0.472 0.503
CT 0.776 0.101 0.123 0.59 0.096 0.092 0.402 0.518
NY 0.657 0.159 0.184 0.63 0.151 0.138 0.341 0.519
HI 0.247 0.016 0.737 0.7 0.015 0.553 0.132 0.535
ME 0.952 0.012 0.036 0.56 0.011 0.027 0.522 0.548
MA 0.804 0.066 0.13 0.61 0.063 0.098 0.45 0.559
RI 0.814 0.057 0.129 0.63 0.054 0.097 0.479 0.589
VT 0.953 0.01 0.037 0.67 0.01 0.028 0.633 0.664
Except for Hawaii, the states where Obama did best among Whites are all in New England.  One interesting thing is that two states that Obama won narrowly (CO and NV) have rapidly growing Latino populations. Another is that GA could easily be in play next time.

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Comment Preferences

• I'm glad you're including New York in New England!(7+ / 0-)

It's debatable, but upstate really started out as New Hampshire and Vermont West, and the only part of New York State that isn't really an extension of New England in historical terms is New York City. (Long Island was every bit as Puritan as Connecticut was).

Well, Albany didn't originate that way either, but nowadays, yes.

-7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

• Well, yeah, maybe I should have said (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Dave in Northridge

New York and New England

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• NY is the only state with a large black population(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

where a majority of whites, by this estimate, voted for Obama.

A bunch of states with around 2/3rds white pop had mid-forties white Obama support.  MI, DE, CA, IL, NJ.

Actually, I should include CT with NY!

"Keep showing up." Michelle Obama

[ Parent ]

• CNN's Exit Poll has New York's White Vote Split(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

49 - 49. In 2008, Obama won 52% of New York's White vote.

Interesting diary and table, but it is based on too many assumptions for my taste. I'll take the CNN Exit Poll as a more reliable indicator as to the demographics of the election. And what it indicates is that there is no state with a significant Black, or non-White, population where the majority of Whites voted for Obama.

Then again, it's been decades since the majority of White people voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate, so why should we expect anything different now - especially when the Democratic candidate is non-white.

I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Republican Party.

[ Parent ]

• I spent a lot of time (2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515, Dave in Northridge

at one point in my career building/programming cross-tabs for survey data.

Interesting data, btw.

• So holp me read this(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

The first three columns (call the col A, B, C) = the total vote.

So looking at Row 1, the white vote is .59 of the total vote.  Of that .59, .1 voted for Obama.  So Obama got .1/.59 = 17% of the white vote in Mississippi.

Is that correct?

Mrick

• Unfortunately I didn't have those figures(0+ / 0-)

so the first three columns are population proportions, not voting proportions. As pointed out in another comment, this does mess things up a bit.

However, the .1 comes from (remainder)(proportion White) = (for MS) .059.59.  Obama got .1 (or 10%) of the White vote in MS.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• No need for any new math(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515, isabelle hayes

The exit polls already show how this turned out. You are close on a lot of them, but not all of them.

Generally speaking, the deep south, Oklahoma, and Texas skew the overall view of the white vote across the country. I wrote a diary about it yesterday. Take out those states and Obama is very competitive with the white vote across the country.

I calculated yesterday, that in 2008, without a single minority vote, Obama would've won 222 electoral college votes, and with only modest minority participation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Obama would've been elected president.

There's plenty of white support for Obama, just not in the deep south, Texas and Oklahoma. Most of the other states where Obama does poorly with white voters are very small in population terms.

The reality is this: southern whites are out of the mainstream, not merely with the whole electorate, but with white people across the country.

• Let me correct this statement(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515
I calculated yesterday, that in 2008, without a single minority vote, Obama would've won 222 electoral college votes, and with only modest minority participation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Obama would've been elected president.
To this:

I calculated yesterday, that in 2008, without any minority participation, Obama would've won 222 electoral college votes, and with only modest minority participation in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Obama would've been elected president.

We don't have exit polls from all of the states, so your math is helpful for states we don't have the data for, but generally, we know where this is.

• Actually, NO, There Is NOT Plenty Of White Support(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

for Obama - even in non-Southern states.

According to CNN's Exit Polls, these are the percentages of the White vote Romney won in states Obama won:
CA (53%); CO (54%); IL(52%) - Obama's Home State!; MN (49%); MI (55%); NJ (56%); NM (56%); NY (49%); OH (57%); PA (57%)

Again, those are the  percentages of the White vote Romney won in non-Southern states Obama won.

Romney won White women (56%) and 18 - 29 y.o. Whites (51%), both "improvements" over 2008.

Now there may be plenty of White support for Obama at Daily Kos, but anywhere else? Not so much...

I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Republican Party.

[ Parent ]

• Good job with the stats.....(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515, Dave in Northridge

and I guess we just about could have predicted where all of mitwitt's strongest support would be.... the South.

• Percentages would be easier to read(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
WB Reeves, plf515

It's a little confusing right now. Why not multiply by 100 and add a % sign to all the numbers? I think it would be easier to read.

See the losers in the best bars, meet the winners in the dives -Neil Young

• Yeah, i expected my home state of Mississippi to(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

be the worse. 10%. Worse than 2008, because at least 2% were on the edge and believed all the fear of the black president crap, rightwing yappers on radio and Fox pushed.

• I like White people!(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

I really, really like White people... Thanks for the help, y'all...:o)

Actually, I like all folks, although some are Republican...

The GOP hate me! I'm black, a woman, disabled veteran, divorced mother and liberal. THEY SUCK!

• Voter turnout(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
hubcap, plf515

If you just go by census figures, the results will be quite off, because voter turnout differs quite a bit by race/ethnicity. See, for example, http://www.cnn.com/...

Less significantly, you should use the proportions of voting age citizens, not the population count as a whole. I'm not sure what you used.

• Blacks and Whites vote in about equal proportion(0+ / 0-)

per the census (although it varies a bit by state). Latinos and Asians vote quite a bit less. Also, a lower proportion of Blacks and Latinos are eligible voters, but I don't have those figures handy for 2012.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• Not quite(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

I'm looking at the census figures and the 2008 CNN exit polls and I see the following.

Census (population over 18 in 2009):
White not Hispanic 68%
Hispanic/Latino 13%
Black 12%
Asian 5%

Voters:
White 74% (that means non-Latino)
African-American 13%
Latino 9%
Asian 2%

If you factor these numbers in,  the White/Obama numbers should go up somewhat, I am not sure how much.

• In a diary a few years ago(0+ / 0-)

I found some census figures on proportion of eligible voters voting by race and state, but now the link has gone away. That is what's really needed here.

Per your figures, Whites vote is weighted 74/68 = 1.088; Black 13/12 = 1.0833.  These are almost identical, meaning that the proportion of Whites and Blacks voting is nearly identical. Latinos and Asians vote much less.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• Nice stats.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

This is ordered by white support?

Love to see it ported to a bar chart set.

A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five. -- Groucho Marx

• 10% in Mississippi.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

But nooo, it was about policy differences, not race!

My ass.

If you say "gullible" real slow, it sounds like "green beans."

• Well, to answer that, we'd have to (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
weatherdude

compare it to the last time two Whites were running for POTUS, which would be Bush-Kerry. In MS, Kerry got 40% which was 8% below Kerry's national average.  In 2012, Obama got 44%, which was 7% below his national average.  Similarly, in 2000, MS gave 40% to Gore, which was 8% below his national average.

But that's not conclusive because, for one thing, a higher proportion of Blacks voted in 2012 than 2004 or 2000.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• Good work(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515, SoCalLiberal

I was about to do a little of this myself. I liked the way you laid this out and it's easy to understand.

I did a little of this myself back in 2008 with the LGB vote because people were so mortified that 70% of LGBs voted for Obama as opposed to 77% for kerry and a lot of people were talking about LGB racism as a factor.

Houston, we have a problem

Basically, I reached the same conclusion with what little data that I could find; it seemed as if Southern gay communities were dragging the numbers down.

• For earlier elections there is better data(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Chitown Kev

at least for race, because there are estimates of what proportion of each race/ethnicity voted, by state. I don't think those are available yet on a state level for 2012.

I look at some of that in this diary

Of course, for LGBT, there are only guesstimates as to the total population, much less by state.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• Yes, the data that i was able to find(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

was something like votes in predominately "gay precincts" or something.

I was actually a little surprised by the number of gay people that live in the South...but that was the only conclusion that I could reach, with a lot of predomitely "gay districts" in the North voting for Obama at 80-90% clips.

• Trying to figure out what proportion(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Chitown Kev

of the population is LGBT is notoriously hard.

1) Stigmatized population
2) Definitional problems (both on the part of some researchers and some of the population)
3) Geographic dispersion

and probably a lot that I am forgetting right now.

I spent about a decade doing research into HIV and its spread.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• Another interesting note(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

It is those Southern states where the majority of the black population resides.

• Yup(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Chitown Kev

Per the census a majority of Blacks live in the south. Also, the fastest growing Black populations are in Florida, Georgia, Texas  and North Carolina.  None of which bodes well for the Republicans, since most of the in-country migration has been from fairly safe Democratic states (esp. NY and IL).

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• It's not simply a Latino demographic(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

time bomb for those states, good point.

• NM isn't really that white(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

A lot of those "whites" are Hispanic. it's really a majority-minority state.  But yet only a tiny smattering of black population at 2.5%; Native American much more significant at 10.1%.  White persons, not Hispanic, are only 40.2% of the population.

"Taxes are for the little people." Leona Helmsley (before she went to jail for taking that attitude a bit too far)

• Yeah, the census does things oddly(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Land of Enchantment, Chitown Kev

whereby you can be both White and Hispanic or Black and Hispanic.

I didn't see tables for White (nonhispanic), Black (nonhispanic), Hispanic (any race), Asian, other by state.  They are probably there someplace.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• other factors to correlate against race?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515, SoCalSal

education level.

how many generations the family has lived in the same geographical area.

income.

occupation.

extent to which the respondent identifies with his/her ancestry.

parents' parenting style.

Or to put it another way --- What are the attributes of those in that racial category who did not vote for Romney?  Want more democrats?  Maybe all you gotta do is get those crackers to move to another state, or improve K-12 education, or raise the minimum wage.  My theory is that right-wing thinking correlates strongly with authoritarian parenting, and in particular, corporal punishment.   So high-quality early childhood education is the key.

Disclosure:  I'm a cracker myself.