Onto the blue team! I'm getting more confident!
DE(Coons)- The Delaware's bench of republicans is almost non-existant now. I hope O'Donnell runs again just for comedic value.
MA(Kerry)- 9/9 Democrats in the US House, 2 Dem Senators, and a dem governor. Massachusetts is ocean blue. Scott Brown could win a governor election, but Kerry would beat him with his hands tied behind his back.
NM(T. Udall)- Tom Udall doesn't have a lot of opposition. Gary "Somalia" Johnson will probably run for president again in 2016 and Susana Martinez has been raising money for re-election as governor.
RI(Reed)- Rhode Island is so blue, even conservatives are becoming democrats there. Proof- http://www.rifuture.org/...
VA(Warner)- Warner will easily win. He is very popular and was elected to an open seat in a race that wasn't even close in one of the biggest battleground states of the Country.
CO(M. Udall)- Mark Udall is an excellent Senator who has done a lot of great work in the Senate. I don't believe he will retire. But keep in mind, Colorado voted for Santorum in the republican primary, almost elected the guy who suggested bombing Mecca and Medina was a good idea, and almost elected the guy who refused to prosecute a rape case, Ken Buck. Colorado has a lot of crazy republicans, but not a lot who could beat Udall, who is very well respected in his state. Polling has shown most potential challengers trailing Udall by a lot of points except for former Gov. Bill Owens, who only trails by 4(47-43). But he's been very damaged after his affair problems, apparently.
IL(Durbin)- If Durbin retires, this seat is only likely D. But only if he retires. I'd say we nominate Rahm Emanuel, Jan Schakowsky, or Tammy Duckworth in that situation.
IA(Harkin)- Harkin is a popular incumbent, but he could retire and even if he doesn't, Tom Latham trails him only by three points(45-42), and Iowa is a pure swing state. This is going to be a competitive one. The reason this is likely and not lean, however, is because I suspect that A- Latham's seat will go democratic if he retires, and B- Steve King would probably defeat Latham in the GOP primary.
MI(Levin)- If he retires, this will be very interesting. Michigan has been trending red, but I say a democratic sweep of Michigan is also possible in 2014.
MN(Franken)- Franken will be okay against most challengers, but Coleman is a concern. Hopefully he doesn't run. If he does, this will go to lean D.
Update(12/15/12)- Still think Franken is going to be okay.
NH(Shaheen)- Shaheen may face a serious republican challenger, but she should be able to win. Former Senators Gregg and Sununu would be problems.
NJ(Lautenberg)- There is a 99 percent chance that Lautenberg will retire. Cory Booker would be a fabulous candidate. Another one is Rush Holt. He is a strong progressive who will fight for the 99 percent. NJ goes both ways in most races, but in Senate races, the've trended democrat for a long time.
OR(Merkley)- His approval ratings are awful, but the Republican's bench in Oregon is thinner than a strand of hair.
Update(12/15/12)- Only two challengers would be a threat to Merkley. Rep. Greg Walden and former Sen. Gordon Smith, who Merkley unseated in 2008. Well, Greg Walden is the chair of the NRCC now, so he's not going to run. That leaves Mr. Smith. Will he run or will he not? That is the question.
MT(Baucus)- I think we would be better off if Baucus lost the primary to Schweitzer. Schweitzer is much more popular in the state. If Baucus doesn't lose the primary though, he would beat most challengers, but if popular former Gov. Marc Racicot entered the race, it would probably be over for Baucus. Schweitzer has slightly better odds. However, Racicot hasn't been around much lately and in a year where he could have given the GOP a big helping hand by running against Jon Tester, he decided not to, so that's why I put this at Likely instead of Lean.
Update(12/15/12)- Scratch! Max Baucus is in deep trouble, and I don't think Schweitzer is running. But as a 7 term incumbent, he probably has an edge.
NC(Hagan)- Me being from this state, I can tell you it's not as red as you think. If Obama can win this state in 2008 and come close to winning it in 2012, Hagan probably has a slight edge here. The GOP bench in NC has a lot of candidates, fortunately for us, not a lot of them have substance. But the one's that do could easily beat Hagan. This is one to watch for sure.
Update(12/15/12)- I am crossing my fingers that Foxx runs and the GOP nominates her.
AR(Pryor)- He is very popular, but Arkansas has been trending Red and a challenge from newly elected Tom Cotton(AR-4) or 3rd district congressman Steve Womack(AR-3) could prove to be his undoing.
Update(12/15/12)- I am concerned about Pryor, but I am not ready to give up on him yet until I see polls.
LA(Landrieu)- Louisiana is, like other southern states, heavily republican, but from what I've heard Mary Landrieu is very popular. The GOP's #1 Bobby Jindal, has denied interest in running, so I think she'll be okay.
Update(12/15/12)- Please excuse my initial exuberance about Landrieu. Louisiana is very republican now, and Bill Cassidy may be a threat. But if he gets teabagged by John Fleming(the guy who uploaded the onion story to facebook and thought it was real), then Landrieu may have a chance.
SD(T. Johnson)- If Johnson doesn't retire, this will be impossible to call between him and former gov. Rounds. It will be back and forth and back and forth and back and forth. If he does retire, this will lean GOP
WV(Rockefeller)- In order to be a dem and get elected in WV, you have to be a blue dog dino. Rockefeller is pretty liberal and has not tried to distance himself from Obama. And if you ask "Why was he elected so many times before?" Because Obama wasn't president! Rockefeller lived through 2 Republican presidents and 1 democrat(B. Clinton). Bill Clinton won West Virginia both times. Obama lost both times! Rockefeller supports many of the things Obama does! Shelley Moore-Capito leads him by 4 points and will probably run this time. It looks like the Rockefeller dynasty has collapsed.
Update(12/15/12)- Bad news, Capito is finally running. Good news, the GOP might screw in the primary again. I'm a little more hopeful now.
AK(Begich)- Unfortunately, even Crazy Joe Miller could probably beat Begich very easily. Begich's approval ratings are in the cellar, which will only make this harder for him. And he pretty much only won in 2008 due to Ted Steven's corruption. Alaska has a habit of electing nutjobs(yes I'm looking at you Sarah Palin!)
Update(12/15/12)- Well, I'm thinking that Joe Miller will be the nominee, because Treadwell just seems too moderate to be nominated. When I see polling numbers, this may be easier to call.