When we last checked in yesterday, Mitt Romney had fallen to a rounded-off 47 percent of the vote, and 47.47 percent, to be exact. It was delish!
While it would've been awesome for the count to end there, Romney still has more to fall, and is now at 47.42 percent as a big batch of Ohio provisionals (but no Cuyahoga) came in.
Montgomery County was 50.7-47.7 Obama after the election-night count. These provisionals broke the president's way 69-31 in the two-party vote.
Summit County went 56.7-41.9 Obama on Election Night. The provisionals broke Obama 72-28 in the two-party vote.
Lorrain went 56.4-41.9 Obama on Election Night, 75-25 of the two-party vote with provisionals.
Trumbull went 60.2-38.0 Obama on Election Night, 75-25 of the two-party vote with provisionals.
Romney had a 86,958 to 86,314 lead in the county on Election Night, which means Obama netted 1,495 votes with the provisional ballots.
If you ever need a reason why Ohio Republicans fought so hard to suppress provisional ballots, this is it. In just these five counties, Obama netted 13,320 votes. Just imagine when Cuyahoga (Cleveland) checks in.
These numbers (and a bunch of smaller counties earlier last week) have grown Obama's Election Night edge of 50.1-48.2 to 50.3-48.0, or 0.4 points. Cuyahoga will add another chunk to that.
In a close election, every one of those ballots would've been litigated, and every one of them could've made a difference. That's why we have to remain vigilant of Republican efforts to suppress the vote. But we should also salute the Obama campaign and Democrats for fighting those voter suppression efforts so effectively.
Turnout won't be as high as it was in 2008. Mitt Romney has about 500,000 more votes than John McCain received, while Obama is down by about 4.5 million. Overall, Obama has a roughly 4.4 million popular vote advantage. Remember, George W. Bush's big "mandate" in 2004 was built on a popular vote victory of just three million votes.
10:10 PM PT: The fruits of anastasia p's labors are in:
And this means that Ohio is looking less close than it once did:
Toledo came in too:
10:16 PM PT: Rough math -- Obama has picked up about 40,000 votes in the provisional count, and we're still waiting on Columbus -- the state's largest city (though the Cleveland metro area is larger).
I'm guessing Obama's margin ends up at around three points. My Ohio +5 prediction is looking less stupid than it once did. And it makes my Colorado miss (at 3.38 points and counting) the worst, by far.