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In an announcement today, Tom Perriello says that he won't run for governor next year. This comes on the heels of last week's announcements that Mark Warner won't give up his Senate seat to run, and on the Republican side Lt. Governor Bolling won't run either.

This leaves us with Terry McAuliffe (D) vs Ken Cucinelli (R) pretty much as a done deal.  Follow me over the orange fleur-de-kos for my take on it.

On the one hand, in our favor is KooKoonelli himself, and his continued war on women, rich history of misogynist decisions and statements for use in ads, his status as Virginia's leading climate change denier, his record as having wasted Virginia taxpayer funds on the PPACA lawsuit, and (I'd like to think it will matter to my fellow Virginians) his record as attorney general shows remarkably little done for the consumer or in fighting banks, payday lenders, etc. as other attorneys general have done.

On the other hand is Terry McAuliffe. Having never held elected office, unknown and not well liked outside Northern Virginia.  Remember, this is the guy who lost to Creigh Deeds (a just-as-unknown legislator from western Virginia) for the 2009 gubernatorial nomination by 23 points, despite out-fundraising him.

Also, I gotta say, it will not go over well that his latest venture Greentech Automotive is building its plant in Mississippi and creating jobs there instead of Virginia.  Frankly, this pisses me off big time - why invest in a union-hating, low wage state like Mississippi versus his home state, or building it up in Ohio or Michigan which has hundreds of old auto plants that could be renovated and benefit from a new company like this.

Support from women might help him squeak it out, but I doubt it.  Cucinelli win 54-46 is my prediction.

Originally posted to absdoggy on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:21 PM PST.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

    by absdoggy on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:21:16 PM PST

  •  Well, fuck. I'm not going to say so much for winni (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vatexia, IndieGuy, pistolSO, Judge Moonbox

    ng, because Terry might be able to manage it, but I do think Perriello would have made a much better candidate.

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:24:38 PM PST

    •  Keep in mind... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vatexia, Diana in NoVa

      That Bolling may well run as an independent..which would likely split the Republican vote, helping Terry Mac pull out a victory.

      "Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it."--George Santayana

      by GainesT1958 on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:25:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd doubt it in the end. (0+ / 0-)

        Yeah, he's pissed at Cucinelli, but he's not going to cross over to the Democratic Party ever.  If he runs as an independent, he'll be screwed with the Republicans for good, and he doesn't have any national pull (he was Romney's campaign chair here in VA, and within Republican circles, he's being blamed for Romney's loss here to a certain degree).

        He'd be the one to take a run at Warner in 2014 if Cucinelli wins the governorship, at least prolonging his campaign career if he stays within the party.

        Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

        by absdoggy on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:40:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, I was really hoping Perriello would run (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vatexia, pistolSO, Judge Moonbox

      If 2010 wasn't such a bloodbath, he would have won re-election, he'd have 4 years in and would be a strong candidate and better known in the state.

      Virginia is a purple state, so perhaps a more progressive candidate is a reach, but McAuliffe isn't going to draw many votes for who he is - it's all going to be about anti-Cucinelli.

      Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

      by absdoggy on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 02:32:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Too bad. Seriously. McAuliffe is, well... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MI Sooner

    ...McAuliffe.  :-(

  •  You're seeing it far to darkly (6+ / 0-)

    Cuccinelli is poison to anyone on the progressive side who is paying attention, and that will help with enthusiasm and GOTV on our side.  GOTV will be crucial.  

    Terry won't have to deal with a bruising three-way primary this time and hopefully the left (including certain people on this site) won't nitpick him to death.  (Who cares what state his company built a car factory in? We're talking about whether Virginia is governed by a moderate Democrat or a right-wing ogre.)  

    Terry has to sell himself to the voters, of course, but I rate his chances as pretty high if VA Dems will get their act together.

    •  But that's my point, McAuliffe doesn't draw (0+ / 0-)

      My fear is that the benefit of nailing Cuckoo Cucinelli on his record will be offset by disaffected VA Dems.

      And yes, people do care what state his company built a factory in. Why wouldn't a Virginia voter feel slighted that his candidate for governor chose to invest in Mississippi instead of Virginia? Yes, we as Dems are going to see it as you do, but independents won't.

      It may have been stimulus $$ and the state's huge share of the defense budget that helped, but VA has come through the great recession fairly well, and by and large the McDonnell administration is seen as a success. Cucinelli will reap some of this benefit.

      Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

      by absdoggy on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:25:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think McAuliffe will do well (3+ / 0-)

    Remember, Mark Warner had never served in elective office and was only well known in one part of the state, but still got elected (after losing badly to John Warner in 96).  

    Terry has been all over the state during the past four years and has gotten much more well known.  He also will be brutal on Cuccinelli's record, which will be exceptionally unpopular (can you imagine his television commercials?).  I predict 55-45, McAuliffe

    •  I'd think anti-vaginal probe attitudes should give (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Judge Moonbox

      McAuliffe a narrow win, say 51-49.

      "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

      by TofG on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:04:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Warner had good fortune when running for Gov (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      of following the 2 most incompetent administrations VA has ever seen - especially Gilmore, who was so bad the state's debt rating was downgraded.  

      McAuliffe will not have this. Now, down here in Hampton Roads, it might help that ole Macdonald fucked us royally over the financing of the bridge/tunnel expansions which is going to result in big tolls, which weren't used for projects in other parts of the state. And, I agree, Cucinelli's record will help us and turn off some women voters that might otherwise vote Republican.

      But McAuliffe still has a big hill to climb.

      Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

      by absdoggy on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 07:18:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just make sure there IS only one D candidate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    armd, absdoggy, JamieG from Md

    this time. Last time we had three, not two - and the reason we got stuck with Deeds is that he hunkered down and kept a low profile while McAuliffe and Brian Moran hacked each other to bits.

    We need to NOT do that again.

    If it's
    Not your body,
    Then it's
    Not your choice
    And it's
    None of your damn business!

    by TheOtherMaven on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 03:22:26 PM PST

    •  I know Creigh, have known him for years. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JamieG from Md

      He and my husband were close friends as children.  He's a lovely guy, but ran an abysmal campaign.  We who knew him were gobsmacked.  There was no campaign presence, even in his strongholds.  That made the race McDonnell's to lose.

      If MacAuliffe can refrain from calling his opponents "f***tards" during the race, he'll have a much better chance.  Manners count, and Cucinelli scares a lot of people, even in my red side of the state.

      "I speak the truth, not as much as I would, but as much as I dare, and I dare a little the more, as I grow older." --Montaigne

      by DrLori on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 08:49:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I could live with McAuliffe (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, JamieG from Md

    I say as a Marylander who will definitely be asked to go to Virginia to help win that election.  (Marylanders were vital to winning VA for Pres Obama this year and in 2008.)  I've read a couple recent posts about the upcoming race, and while I love Perriello, I think McAuliffe may be the one who can bring it home.

    Last time around, I believe the Wash Post endorsement of Creigh Deeds probably helped him win the primary; it was a situation where some people couldn't make up their minds, didn't really like the two better known candidates, so said why not, we'll go with the Post.  

    And Bob McDonnell (ODonnell ? I can never remember) ran as a palatable centrist.  I don't think Cuccinelli can overcome his extremist past; it's too recent.  A well run Democratic campaign could do better in 2013.

  •  If Bolling doesn't run as an Independent (0+ / 0-)

    Maybe Virgil Goode could give it a go.  Virginia's "independent green"  party could run a few statewide candidates to throw a wrench in the machinery.  The independent green NOT the same as the Green Party, and they run on ONE issue: rail transportation.

  •  Perriello isn't running for Governor... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JamieG from Md

    ...but there are two other spots on the ticket in November: Lt. Gov and AG.

    Just sayin'....

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Thu Dec 06, 2012 at 02:04:22 AM PST

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