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Chixdiggit -- "Where's Your Mom?"

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is probably a most fitting music: (7+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 04:24:57 PM PST

  •  Anybody got any movie or TV show suggestions? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Taget

    Some of (but not all of) my favorite shows (5 stars) are:
    Band of Brothers
    Breaking Bad
    Classic Albums series
    Firefly
    Game of Thrones (hands down favorite of just about anything I've seen)
    Homeland (everyone here should watch this)
    The League
    Mad Men
    Rome
    The Wire

    And movies:
    Coraline
    The Departed
    Fight Club
    Good Will Hunting
    Inglourious Basterds
    Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels
    Moon
    The Matrix (original)
    Michael Clayton
    Pulp Fiction
    Snatch
    Super Troopers
    Up

    And if you like concert films, David Gilmour's "Remember that Night" is just phenomenal all around.  Jeff Buckley Live in Chicago is really good too as is Porcupine Tree's Anesthetize.  Also Ken Burns' Jazz series is quite good though not perfect.  He also has some other really good documentary series like The Civil War.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 04:42:57 PM PST

    •  You liked Coraline too? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nonsensoleum, CF of Aus, sawolf

      Good, I don't hear much about that movie.  Neil Gaiman's works are uniquely awesome.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 04:45:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus
    •  Let me suggest Brazil again (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo, Taget, Swamp Cat

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 05:15:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  the Big Lebowski (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, R30A, aamail6, hankmeister, tk421, sawolf

      Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, my opinion, man.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 05:44:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Samurai Champloo. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nonsensoleum, KingofSpades

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:16:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah, another appreciator of SC. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        My favorite anime series is the OVA series for "Hellsing."

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:27:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not a big anime guy (0+ / 0-)

          but I like SamCham and a couple others.  It's good noir.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:39:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Ah that reminds me I left off a definite favorite (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8

        Cowboy Bebop.  Like you I'm not a huge fan of anime, but if you like noir that show is just fantastic.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:04:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  made by the same guy, Shinichiro Watanabe. (0+ / 0-)

          SamCham is samurai noir, Cowboy Bebop is sci fi noir.  Both good.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:10:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  "The West Wing"? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus, HoosierD42, Swamp Cat

      It's a glaring omission. And "Battlestar Galactica", which you will love if you enjoy "Game of Thrones".

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:19:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lemme see. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sawolf

      I assume you want "great" rather than "entertaining" shows.  IE I enjoy watching The Middle but it is not exactly something I'd buy on Blu Ray like Game of Thrones.  And I am shameless in enjoying Shameless.  If any of you are considering running for office you'd probably be best advised not to admit liking it. ;)

      TV Shows

      Boardwalk Empire though it has meandered a bit too much I still think is a great show.  It doesn't hurt that I have been enjoying reading the book it is based on.

      The first season of Strike Back was great.  And by first season I mean not the two seasons seen on Cinemax which is just over the top action sequences.  I mean the British first season that you'll have to get off the internet to see.

      The AMC series Rubicon was wonderful.  It built up so perfectly.  Of course the problem was that until the parts come together you'll find the show incredibly slow.  And stuff will happen that will seem trivial and inconsequential until all the dots are put together later.

      I also liked the show Invasion which also started out incredibly slow but came together nicely.  I'm still cursing ABC for not renewing it.  It did the body snatching premise (which by definition is rather silly to begin with) better than just about anything else.  It also doesn't hurt that William Fichtner is an awsome actor.

      This will go back into the obscure.  Pasadena was pure soapy goodness.  And I don't think any show EVER had such a talented cast.  Of course what probably helped was that it was in ratings limbo right from the start and since it wasn't coming back.... half the episodes didn't even air in the United States for YEARS ... the writers were free to basically do whatever the hell they wanted.  Hope it gets released on DVD one of these days.  Especially since I lost all my episodes when my old TIVO died.

      Beggars and Choosers.  Old Showtime show about the entertainment industry.  Funny as hell and deserves a dvd release.  They actually were going to do one and they cancelled it at the last minute a few years ago.  Bastards!

      Freaks and Geeks.  Took place before my time but it pretty much nailed high school better than any show I've seen.  Everything was just so well and perfectly done.  NBC was criminal in how they treated this show.

      Arrested Development.  Yeah.  It probably got more attention that it deserved given how low rated it was.  And Fox unlike other shows was pretty generous.  But really was a great show.

      Sarah Connor Chronicles.  Nobody knew where it was heading in the second season which killed it.  But you know what?  The story it was slowly constructing was awsome.  Just by the time people realized it ratings had declined.  And the idiots at Fox cancelled it.  On the other hand if it had not been cancelled Lena Heady would not have been available for Game of Thrones.

      Carnivale and Deadwood.  Two HBO shows that died before their times.

      Movies

      The Shipping News - For me this movie is like the Shawshank Redemption.  A small movie you don't think much of at first.  But you love it more and more everytime you see it.  Kevin Spacey (like in everything he's in) is amazing.  And the rest of the cast such as Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchette, and Judi Dench are no slackers either.  The premise is hokey but it just works.

      Starship Troopers - I don't even know where to start.  First the subversive public service announcements with their jingoistic militarism (which they carried over to the third movie...  don't bother with the second).  Sure it goes against all your do-good liberal sensibilities.  But we're being invaded by bugs dammit!

      Red Dawn and Toy Soldiers - They are the same movie.  In one all American kids fight off the commies (Wolverines!) and in Toy Soldiers a hobbit (Samwise)  leads another group of teens against narco-terrorists.  I have absolutely no justification for either movie other than they are just always damn fun to watch.

      Magnolia - Should've beaten American Beauty for the oscar.  From the serious to the funny to the absurd everything was so well done.  And one of those movies where any weaknesses it has is more than made up for by it's amazing cast.

      The Dead Zone - Great movie on many different levels.  Also makes me question any independent who runs for the US Senate.  Without a friendly neighborhood psychic how can you be sure?  Chrisopher Walken was also allowed to be his great self rather than a caricature like later on his career.  Not that those movies are bad.  After all I should also include Things to Do In Denver When You're Dead on this list.

      Miller's Crossing - Starring Gabriel Byrnes as the smart underling forced to deal with two myopic mob bosses.  A great mob movie and something to give comfort to all of us who are much smarter than our bosses.

      The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly - Everything is just perfectly done.  My favorite scene?  The blowing up of the bridge where a pointless Civil War battle was being constantly fought for.  And Clint is still the man.  Chair or no chair.

      Ran - Akira Kurosawa one upping Shakespeare himself in retelling Hamlet.  As a parable for both politics and war it is enduring.  Like everything by Akira it is just genius.

      2001 - What is there to say.  When the astronauts went to the moon they compared it to the movie.  That is how good it was.  And this was before CGI which STILL cannot give us the special effects that Kubrick gave us 40 years before.

      City of Lost Children - Everything Jeunet does that is not related to the Alien franchise is brilliant.  This movie is far darker than the one movie of his you probably do know (Amelie).  But it's at it's heart a (non-Michael) Grimm faerie tale.  And I love those types of movies.  And the sets and costumes are spectacular.  Here is an article about it.

      http://steampunkfilm.wordpress.com/...

      I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot of other stuff.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 10:37:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Stanley Kubrick is beyond irreplacable. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget, Swamp Cat

        His directing, versatility, and cinematography skill was at such a level it puts him apart from all other directors living or dead.  I still have trouble believe he was a real person.  He seems more like a mysterious legend like the Man with No Name from the Clint Eastwood western trilogy.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 10:51:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I really liked Boardwalk Empire (0+ / 0-)

        until this season, since it just seemed to have no purpose for very obvious reasons.  Buscemi is a great fit for Nucky Thompson though.

        Starship Troopers is definitely a cult classic in the "so bad it's good" sense, to me at least.  Definitely a good B movie.

        I tried getting into Deadwood since I love HBO's shows and normally like Westerns, but over 2/3rds into season 1 I just couldn't really get into it.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:04:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's really hard (0+ / 0-)

        to go wrong with any Kurosawa, IMO.

        Though my personal fave is probably Rashomon.

    •  I enjoy Parks and Rec (0+ / 0-)

      First season has its moments, but it gets much better the further along it goes.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 11:47:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This seems a bit greatest hits-ish rather than (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget

      just what is good on tv but I will give it a bash.

      comedy you have to see Community which is the best show in the light entertainment side hands down.

      The obvious rivals to breaking bad and the wire are weeds and the Shield respectively. The borgias is I guess a good equivalent to Rome.

      Boardwalk Empire is always good drama wise.

      For politics I have downloaded the Boss and watched the first episode - seems promising. I presume Kelsey Grammer is meant to be Daley (one of them) but I watched it on the plane so my memory is a little hazy. Will get into that shortly.

      Movies - look up kung fu hustle. This is a strange and quirky film but absolutely awesome. Not even sure what category it would fit in.

      As for an equivalent show to Firefly... no such thing sadly. But since my boy Joss Whedon has raised a shitload with the Avengers he may well be able to get another tv series going.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:48:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh and at the moment... (0+ / 0-)

        I watch Community (well when they show Season 4), Modern Family, How I Met Your Mother, Parks and Rec, 30 Rock, Daily Show, Colbert Report and the Big Bang Theory. My reality show that I like is American Pickers.

        On the drama side I watch Boardwalk Empire, Weeds (now finished forever), Game of Thrones, Dr Who, Newsroom (I am a sucker for all the Aaron Sorkin stuff even though this one gets even preachier than his other shows).

        I am going to start to watch Suits and Boss.

        Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

        by CF of Aus on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:53:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Film suggestions (0+ / 0-)

      I don't watch much film or tv, so I'm sure most of my favorites you've probably seen already, but hopefully these will be new to you.

      The Bridge on the River Kwai:
      I'm trying to brainstorm war and si-fi movies, since that seems to be what you like... but I just don't know that many. -_-; This is my favorite war movie though, so if you haven't seen it, consider doing so. It's about a group of captured American soldiers forced to build a bridge for the Japanese during WWII. It's a famous movie though, so you've probably seen it.

      The Station Agent:
      It's about Peter Dinklage (Tyrion from Game of Thrones) inheriting a train station. It's a comedy, but, well, it's a little hard to explain in words.

      Caesar Must Die:
      I was brought to see it recently and liked it a lot; it's not an American film, but it should be pretty easy to find. It's about a group of convicts reenacting The Tragedy of Julius Caesar. Parts of it are in black and white, which sounds too pretentious by half, I know, but don't let that turn you off... it was really funny and heartwarming.

      For Television... have you seen Downton Abbey? Also, if you liked Firefly (then again, who didn't?), you should look up a show called Dark Angel. It was also cancelled prematurely, but based on your lists of favorites, I think you'd like it a lot.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:48:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I would give you advice (0+ / 0-)

      Except there is exactly 1 match in our movies list. So my advice would not be well received.

    •  Favorite movies and TV shows: (0+ / 0-)

      Movies:
      Alien
      2001: A Space Odyssey
      Silence of the Lambs
      Psycho
      LOTR
      Star Wars
      some others I need to see

      TV Shows (currently):
      Breaking Bad

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:00:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  this won't be up everybody's alley (0+ / 0-)

      but the TV show Misfits is excellent, in my opinion.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:46:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Being from New York (0+ / 0-)

      I hate all things Boston, but with few exceptions, and that's The Departed, which I think was a good movie as well as The Town. Some other good film suggestions would be Last King of Scotland, Training Day and Slumdog Millionaire. I also saw halfway through The King's Speech last week.

      Now TV shows I mostly watch reruns of like Fresh Prince, Martin, Seinfeld, King of Queens, CSI NY, and whenever the Boondocks come out with a new season, and sporting events like NBA, NFL, and Soccer. I dont watch to much TV, just mostly sports, news and reruns of past tv series.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:59:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lots (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget

      of good shows can be found here. For something with more of a political bent, I'd recommend "The Good Wife" or "Parks and Rec." I'd also recommend "30 Rock," "Arrested Development," and "New Girl" in general, with the former being very good if you like showbiz humor and, in fact, lots of political humor.

      The last movie I saw was Silver Linings Playbook. Before that, I'm not sure, at least in theaters. I watched The Iron Lady, which was pretty good overall but had some big issues as far as how it represented Thatcher.

      If you are looking for something that are just small but interesting, I'd recommend It Runs in the Family and Wonder Boys.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:48:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good Wife is a good show. (0+ / 0-)

        Usually well done and has a good balance between the serious and whimsical.  One of my favorite episodes was when they had former Senator Fred Thompson playing a lawyer defending Hugo Chavez.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:33:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  California releases statement of vote (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    but they haven't updated the maps or normal result pages.

    Statement of vote PDF
    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    Ron Paul got 21,461 write  ins, or .2% of the total state vote, including 3140 in San Diego.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 04:59:16 PM PST

  •  How can Dem grassroots recruit candidates? (5+ / 0-)

    It seems like right now, we  rely on our party leadership (and possibly some funders) to recruit good Democratic candidates. Usually, the grassroots efforts I've encountered trying to recruit a candidate involve a petition or a facebook group.What more do you think ordinary progressives could be doing to recruit good candidates?

    I think it would be useful to set up online platforms where supporters can declare how many hours per week they'll be willing to volunteer or how much money they'd be willing to give if the candidate entered the race. If it's a tough district,  supporters could list the reasons why the candidate could actually win. They could offer personal stories for why it's so important to have them in office. Have any of you encountered any outstanding grassroots recruitment efforts? Did they use any of the strategies I outlined above?

    In my opinion, candidate quality can make a huge difference.  If we can build on successful efforts, and come up with more innovative recruitment techniques, we can be more competitive accross the country.

    •  by being involved in local campaigns (7+ / 0-)

      they can find out which prominent people in the community are Democrats.  I'm talking attorneys, business owners, popular teachers (unpopular schoolteachers are awful candidates!), union officers, and others who are involved in the community.  Then, if they think they'd be good, they can suggest it to them.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 05:32:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  well its all local (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      like Tip said. Usually the county party organizations are the best way to find good local candidates for races and the state party for races higher up the ballot. The Nassau County GOP for instance was once (and probably still is) seen as the strongest county party organization in the nation.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 07:55:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's about money and organization. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There are plenty of good potential candidates who might not be opposed to giving politics a try.  But the problem is convincing them that running will not be a waste of time.  Especialy when the other side has such a financial advantage.

      If you can approach people and show them that the fundraising can be done and that there are people ready to help them on day one it becomes a lot easier to entice  them into a race.

      Otherwise it is a different ballgame.  You are trying to find either rich people and/or people who know rich people.  In which case you are really playing the same game the party leadership is.  Which perhaps is not a bad thing since you'll be adding other considerations into the mix.  But you'll be having the exact same difficulties they are.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:36:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Most grassroots recruits (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, lordpet8

      Don't pan out well, either in terms of fundraising, primary prowess, or general electability.

  •  Strange story about the Northumberland County (7+ / 0-)

    Republican Party. Apparently the teabaggers are making it so hard for them to run their committee meetings, they're starting their own committee. With blackjack, and hookers.

    This is a solidly Republican county, 57% Romney and slightly less than that for George Allen. Weird.

  •  SC Misc. (5+ / 0-)

    Ted Vick actually won re-election to the statehouse.

    Storm Thurmond's son won a seat in the state senate. He was Tim Scott's main primary opposition in 2010 and his likely successor in the house if Scott gets the Haley appointment.

    Blatant racist Jake Knotts lost re-election to the state senate.

    •  Vick was always getting re-elected... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

      There was absolutely no follow through on that story once he dropped out. There was no real chance of him losing... He never got a top tier opponent.

      One of the good ole boys I guess.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:57:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Although it was close... but that was largely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        because of a Democratic spoiler who made it on the ballot... despite many other challengers being kicked off the ballot in pretty much every other seat.  

        In an ever so slightly ominous sign for Haley, Sheheen was unopposed in his light red district... You would think in a state like South Carolina that they would be trying to take down the last conservadems.

        Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

        by CF of Aus on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:13:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Some Virginia 2013 news (9+ / 0-)

    This is local stuff on 2013 NoVA state legislative races, so not everyone will be interested, but Virginia really is the big show for the off-year so it's newsworthy.

    In my district, 34, Kathleen Murphy has announced she plans to run against fundraising behemoth Barbara Comstock.  Comstock raised an all-time Virginia Delegate campaign record $800K as a freshman in 2011 en route to a 55-45 win over Pam Danner, the only Republican on my ballot to win out of 17 offices.  Murphy is the mother of Mark Murphy, our losing candidate for Congress last month against Michael Grimm in the Staten Island-based district.  Kathleen's ex-husband John Murphy was the Congressman in that district in the 70s.  Kathleen now is giving it a shot against Comstock, with my full support.  The district leans Democratic very slightly, a fellow local Democratic committee member told me at the meeting this week that he crunched the numbers and found Obama carried the district by a slim 290 votes.

    And against Tom Rust in another rare GOP-held Democratic-leaning seat, for onow we have a contested nomination fight.  Jennifer Boysko, a legislative aide to my own County Supervisor John Foust, will be going up against a gentleman who is a military veteran and businessman...I'm sorry his name escapes me.  It's not my district so I don't plan to support or help anyone in this race, as I've got plenty enough competitive races on my own ballot with Democrats needing help, but I'm happy we have people wanting to run against Rust.  Someday we'll get that seat.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:48:57 PM PST

    •  NLS had great write-ups on various HD's (0+ / 0-)

      that anyone should read.  
      Sideshow Bob Marshall's district voted pretty solidly for Obama and Kaine.
      One GOP-held HD is ~60% Obama-Kaine!!  I know mid-term turnout and all that, but come on.  If Democrats get their act together this time, they can make at least a few net gains.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:54:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not just "mid-term turnout" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        it's off-off-year turnout. Half of Presidential year turnout in gubernatorial years, and a little less than that in the non-gubernatorial off-years. It would take a miracle for the 2013 electorate to look anything close to the 2012 electorate. That's one of the reasons why the Republicans have such an advantage in the legislature, they can easily hold districts that, on paper, the Democrats should have a shot at.

        •  Yeah, people don't realize how much odd-year... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, Taget

          ...elections really differ in turnout modeling from midterms.  The odd-years are really brutal for us, we lose most of the Obama surge voters and have to make do with the committed voters.  We can drag some people out who might not show otherwise, and with Gov on the ballot it's a little easier, but it's a really heavy lift.  And people like Bob Marshall just don't worry at all.

          At some point this will change.  There will come a "tipping point" year when all of a sudden people show and the Bob Marshalls of the world go down.

          But I imagine that could be still years away, not in 2013 or 2015.  Ben Tribbett, aka NLS, did his own demographic analysis to predict when he thought the state would tilt from red to blue in various cycles, and for odd-year cycles with the Governorship up, he's not seeing it until the 2020s.  Ben didn't show his work and I don't know how accurate he might be, and further he was looking at when we have a "natural" advantage when we should be favored by default, not whether we have a 50-50 shot which is already the case.  But it still establishes the point that there are a lot of voters we can't drag out yet but need to make big state-level gains.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:24:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Ah, so that's how you knew his mother! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget, DCCyclone

      I was wondering how you would know someone presumably from Staten Island (which I was wrong in presuming).  Awesome, and I hope she's glad her son did much better than the 20-point loss she feared.
      Also, since the State Senate isn't up at all next year, that means more money for State House races.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 08:58:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pennsylvania Congress races by County (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Marcus Graly, Swamp Cat, jncca

    in the case of split counties, the votes for both parties are added up:

    Rs won 12 of 13 seats by 13.5% or more, with Rothfus over Critz as the exception.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Dec 14, 2012 at 10:04:57 PM PST

  •  Reading Colin Woodard's fantastic book (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Taget, Stephen Schmitz

    American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America right now. Fascinating, and political significance of these regions is uncanny. Here's a map.

    •  I've always resented the title "Left Coast". (0+ / 0-)

      It seems to me, if one is an American looking at the rest of the world from our perspective, it's the Right Coast.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:31:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well. Only if you're facing the equator. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, bythesea
      •  I dislike it too (0+ / 0-)

        because it implies that the East is the Right Coast.  Which it is if you simply look at the position on the map, but usually the term is used in a political context.  And the solid block of blue on the East Coast from Maine to Virginia, plus Florida, in the most recent election map shows that the Right Coast it ain't.

        As for Woodward's map, he may be proud of splitting it down by county, but I don't get why the Washington, DC area is split between three regions (I can't even see which one DC is in.)  The regions in Joel Garreau's "Nine Nations of North America" make at least as much sense to me, even though the book is somewhat dated (published in the early 80s.)

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:51:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  What.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY, Stephen Schmitz

      This map is godawful. Austin is not Appalachian.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:48:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's kind of a border city. (0+ / 0-)

        But he acknowledges in the book that there are all sorts of microregional characteristics that will necessarily be obscured by his approach, but that it's still a useful, historically-grounded rubric for understanding cultural differences between different regions. The county-level divisions are probably too precise for what he's trying to show, but still give a sense of the rough borders of these nations.

        At any rate, I think placing Austin in Greater Appalachia makes more sense than the Deep South or El Norte, if those are the only options.

        •  No it isn't (4+ / 0-)

          This book is pseudo-scientific and makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Austin is much closer culturally to all three of the deep south, El Norte, and the West than it is to anything in Appalachia.

          The fact that we're talking about this as if it is a legitimate intellectual work makes me cringe.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:59:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well jeez... (0+ / 0-)

            I think it's kinda neat, anyway.

            But look. Do you say this is pseudo-scientific and intellectually illegitimate based on familiarity with the book, or based on this map? If it's the former, then fair enough (though I would disagree that it has any pretensions to being scientific; it's a work of history, above all else). I won't make you cringe further.

            If it's just based on the map, though, there's lots more context we could discuss...

            •  I see no reasonable rationale (4+ / 0-)

              for putting Louisiana and Quebec in the same nation. Just because they speak sort of the same language... that's just as rational as putting the Left Coast and the Deep South in the same nation, just because they speak sort of the same language.

              I didn't like Garreau's "Nine Nations" either. I remember reading it and finding it to be superficial.

              The Amazon-based preview of the "El Norte" chapter, I find to be equally superficial.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:00:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Familiarity with this general type of argument (4+ / 0-)

              It's all, like tietack says, very facial. It purports to accurately portray American society yet does a spectacularly bad job of doing so.

              A similar work, I guess you could say, would be anything by Samuel Huntington (Clash of the Civilizations), the only difference being that Huntington grounds his work in actual theoretical and scientific literature making it at least somewhat convincing, whereas hacks like this simply write a book opining on "the way they think things are".

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:47:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Ooo (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I really like my rhyming and alliteration on "the way they think things are".

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:47:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  So you're just against the genre as a whole, then? (0+ / 0-)

                Do you think all efforts at analyzing cultural differences between American regions are doomed to fail? If not, what is an example of this being done well?

                •  Not speaking for wwmiv (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Englishlefty

                  but any genre that tries to incorporate different regions of Canada into different regions of the USA, is IMO, nonsensical.

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:27:25 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Same question for you, then. (0+ / 0-)

                    Has anyone done this sort of analysis well? If so, who? I'm personally fascinated by the relationship between settlement history and contemporary cultural and political characteristics, so I'd really like to know.

                    •  There's very little relationship between (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, Englishlefty

                      "settlement history and contemporary cultural and political characteristics", given the geographic mobility of Americans (and Canadians, and in this case, Latin Americans too).

                      Yes there are some "predominant" ethnics in certain regions, but mobility makes any study in this area statistically meaningless. And given that mobility is an inherent characteristic of North American history, any attempt to filter out those who have moved (probably impossible) would introduce a different set of biases.

                      I hope; therefore, I can live.

                      by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:13:05 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Seriously? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        You don't think there are salient cultural differences between, say, Seattle and Mississippi and New York and New Mexico, that are related to how, when, why, and by whom those areas were settled? I don't even know how to argue against that. It just seems obviously wrong.

                        Woodard refers to Wilbur Zelinsky's doctrine of first settlement, which states that the first ethnic group to sustain a viable settlement in an area establishes important characteristics for the later social and cultural geography of this area, to which later arriving immigrants tend to conform. An implication would be that mobility on even a very large scale wouldn't necessarily overwhelm local cultural differences.

                        I don't know if this is "statistically meaningless," but if it is then I would argue that developing this sort of historical narrative is just not suited to quantificational analysis - not that no significant regional cultural differences exist in the United States.

                        •  That is exactly what I'm saying (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          and I think the lack of differentiation between the Midwest and Northeast in the noted map is an illustration of that.

                          To me, given the additional effects of media-based homoganization, I do think it is statistically meaningless. If it isn't quantifiable in some fashion, the effect is trivial, at least to me.

                          I hope; therefore, I can live.

                          by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:36:25 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Rates of church membership? Average education (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            levels? Support for various civil rights issues? Voting behavior? Formalism in spoken language? Attitudes towards authority? The differences themselves are certainly quanitifiable. I don't know if the historical narratives that are meant to explain these differences are quantifiable, but if that's your standard all I can say is that I believe that there are forms of knowledge that don't have to be expressed in numbers.

                            Aaaand there we are: differences in fundamental epistemological assumptions in only six comments.

                          •  Isn't "epistemological assumptions" redundant? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Of course, I had to look up "epistemological".

                            In any case, I see no evidence that anything beyond the background of original inhabitants were considered in the noted study.

                            Of course things like voting patterns are quantifiable. But given what we've seen of the relationship between that and population density -- all over the USA -- the origins of the original inhabitants seems irrelevant.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 07:51:16 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Again: really? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY
                            But given what we've seen of the relationship between that and population density -- all over the USA -- the origins of the original inhabitants seems irrelevant.
                            Why do people in Vermont vote differently from people in Arkansas? Why do people in Seattle vote differently from people in Houston? You think it has nothing to do with the history of those places?
                          •  Seems you haven't read the study I'm referring to (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            http://www.theatlanticcities.com/...

                            The effect of initial migration seems trivial compared to population density. Perhaps it's not as stark as comparing the flit of a butterfly to the effect of a hurricane, but the evidence is clear to me.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:46:36 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                •  ... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Englishlefty

                  I think that there are certain regional subcultures, but any attempt to systematically define them based on "feeling" will border on the absurd.

                  Given that these things are not easily delineated, as it were, it makes it even more difficult. We should be speaking not in terms of easily defined cultural areas, but rather in terms of gradations. Qualitative in depth case studies of single areas or perhaps a handful of areas are the most enlightening in this fruitful area of study.

                  Where I do think studies like these actually make themselves scientifically relevant actually has nothing to do with political or social science, but rather with linguistics. But ofcourse dialects have little to no political significance.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 06:04:24 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Seems like this common-sense objection is (0+ / 0-)

                    addressed by Woodard when he writes (p. 17-18):

                    Cultural boundaries aren't always as clear-cut as political ones... Cultural geographers recognize this factor as well and map cultural influences by zones: a core or nucleus from which its power springs, a domain of lesser intensity, and a wider sphere of mild but noticeable influence. All of these zones can shift over time... The map immediately preceding this introduction [the one I linked to] has boundaries based on the core and domain of each nation circa 2010. If we addded each nation's sphere, there would be a great deal of overlap, with multiple nations projecting influence over southern Louisiana, central Texas, western Quebec, or greater Baltimore. These boundaries are not set in stone... Delve deeply into almost any particular locality and you'll likely find plenty of minority enclaves or even micronations embedded within the majopr ones I've outlined here... Digging into regional cultures can be like peeling an onion. I've stopped where I have because I believe the values, attitudes, and political preferences of my eleven nations truly dominate the territories they've been assigned, trumping the implications of finer-grain analysis.
                    Arguably this approach is a bit on the essentialist side, but at least (unlike someone like Garreau) he ties these regional "essences" to the discrete groups which founded each region. Which is why this is fundamentally a historical work.
                    •  "nation" (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tietack, MichaelNY, Englishlefty

                      The fact that he's describing these entities as "nations" betrays an extreme ignorance of what that word means in political science. Despite being a historical work, it is fundamentally a political endeavor as well and any legitimate scholar would have  grounded their work in political theory as well... something that he clearly chose not to do, or, more likely, didn't even consider (which of the two is worse I can't say).

                      Also, the guy is a journalist, not an academic. Elevating him by discussing this work as serious scholarship, just like we here frown on work done by Sean Trende, is a bad bad bad idea. Hell! Even Sean Trende's work is better than this. Trende at least has a background in political science and knows the current literature and the trends therein.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:25:42 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Worth restating (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY
                        Also, the guy is a journalist, not an academic. Elevating him by discussing this work as serious scholarship, just like we here frown on work done by Sean Trende, is a bad bad bad idea. Hell! Even Sean Trende's work is better than this. Trende at least has a background in political science and knows the current literature and the trends therein.
                        aka Sean Trende looks like a genius compared to this guy.

                        I hope; therefore, I can live.

                        by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:59:53 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  I think it was you who once floated the idea (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        of using the weekend thread to link to relevant and interesting poli sci articles. So how about linking to the sort of stuff you mentioned above - "Qualitative in depth case studies of single areas or perhaps a handful of areas are the most enlightening in this fruitful area of study." Again, I find this stuff fascinating, so I'd be interested in something more rigorous along these lines, if it's out there.

                        •  the problem (0+ / 0-)

                          Is that there really isn't very much of it along the lines you're looking for, because the well has been poisoned by guys like this author. Academics will go leaps and bounds in order to not be associated with this kindof work simply because this kindof work has long been associated with idiocy.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:47:45 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Heh. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I'm beginning to get the sense that you're not so enthusiastic about this kind of project...? :)

                            Seriously though, that strikes me as a little strange. Everyone who thinks about the cultural/political/historical/social geography of the United States thinks about it in terms of regions. Everyone except cultural geographers or political scientists, I guess...? But I don't see any reason this sort of thing couldn't be done rigorously.

                          •  The reason (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Englishlefty

                            Is because it is very hard to operationalize in a meaningful way, making it almost impervious to social science study.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:17:13 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Do you agree with tietack, then, that there are no (0+ / 0-)

                            salient cultural differences between regions? Or do you just think it's due to the limitations of social scientific methodology that those differences can't be "operationalized"?

                          •  a mix of both (6+ / 0-)

                            I think that cultural differences are actually disappearing somewhat. There's literature about this in the sociological discipline, they pinpoint the cause as Hollywood's growing prominence and/or (it's probably both, in my view) the cataclysmic unifying events of WWI, WWII, and the Depression all within short order.

                            Those kinds of studies are actually quite easy to operationalize because all you have to do is pick a few random locations interspersed throughout the country and do a time series study looking at distance in cultural factors between each location.

                            In IR (International Relations) research, it is also really easy to operationalize cultural factors because the lines are already drawn for us (nation states) and because even when there are huge cultural differences within a country, those lines are often much more clean cut than any difference between Americans of one area and another. A good example would be Italy, where there are clear linguistic boundaries between the north (Lombard) and the south (Italian) (though even that distinction is going away... when Italy was unified the oft heard quote was "now that we've made Italy, we must now make the Italian").

                            But the problem is that in the United States we cannot use preexisting boundaries (states) as units of culture, because the are arbitrarily drawn and because the level of mobility in the country would make them near worthless even if they weren't arbitrary. And then you have to add to that the fact that cultural distinctions are not really clear cut. They are, instead, differences in degree. It isn't a line, but a gradation from one point to the other.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:55:15 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Word. (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Englishlefty, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                            That's interesting. I wonder if it would work, though, to take dialect regions as a starting point - that's something that is more conducive to quantifiable study, as you pointed out above. And on the face of it a dialect map like this one seems to roughly trace some significant cultural differences. Dialect regions surely reflect a common social history, and you could look for correlations between linguistic patterns and cultural practices and beliefs, and political views, etc...

                          •  I feel like an idiot compared to you all. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack
                          •  One of the flaws of many educated Americans (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            is that they talk in the highest level language they can, especially in a general audience.

                            While the intent is usually to "elevate" the debate, the effect is to make others feel inferior, something that Republicans have been taking advantage of for decades.

                            Many of us as Democrats think we're supposed to be the "tribune of the underclass". Many of us as Democrats who talk in this way "turn off" the very people who we are supposedly trying to help.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:49:16 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  ... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, James Allen

                            I wasn't trying to "talk the highest level language" that I'm capable of...

                            :(

                            I think my comments were fairly run of the mill generally, with a few big words every once and awhile. The problem is that there aren't smaller more pedestrian versions of those words. It's either them or nothing.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:55:37 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  It was not my intent to point fingers (0+ / 0-)

                            It is, however, important to make sure that all Democrats can understand what we say. Audid's note does suggest that the three of us went too far.

                            Audid, please feel welcome to ask us to explain things.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:02:37 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Don't feel bad. (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, MichaelNY

                            I understand the English fine, I was just saying that I don't have the political science background or knowledge to contribute usefully, which makes me feel a little bad (because DKE is supposed to be where people contribute this kind of stuff, and I can't).

                          •  If you don't understand what we're saying (0+ / 0-)

                            then we are the "idiots".

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:04:00 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  well a lot of it is gut instinct (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        you can kind of sense a culture in any given area if you stay there long enough. L.A. County for instance has sort of has an east-west divide culturally speaking.

                        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

                        by demographicarmageddon on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:02:37 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

  •  Will Obama begin construction of a Death Star? (5+ / 0-)

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:54:22 AM PST

    •  We would need unspeakable amounts of resources (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, LordMike

      I cannot imagine how the Empire scared up the resources to build TWO of them.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:51:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  All about economies of scale (4+ / 0-)

        I'm sure you could find the actually nerdy number on the star wars wiki, but IIRC from the movies the Empire has 10s of thousands of star systems, so theoretically the sheer size of resources available would allow them to build something the "size of a small moon."

        I'd laugh really hard if some economists actually tried to estimate how much the damn thing would cost us to try to build (not that we ever could).

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:17:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  see the link. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          Someone tried.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:38:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They should try to build the Star Forge (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, Audrid, LordMike

            that would be a far more productive mega-object than a Death Star.  Unlimited production of ships, droids, and weapons and powered by a large star.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:26:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I find your lack of faith disturbing n/t (0+ / 0-)

        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

        by Christopher Walker on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 08:26:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen: It's on? (10+ / 0-)

    From Chicago Sun Times last night:

    President Barack Obama has chosen Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts to be the next secretary of state, a source has told Sun-Times columnist Michael Sneed.

    His replacement as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the Sneed source said.

    http://www.suntimes.com/...

    Whoever ends up running on the Dem side, I hope we coalesce around one candidate pretty quickly. It will take a while for any of the candidates (except the governor or maybe a Kennedy) to build up a statewide profile. And in a special election, time is at a premium.

    •  Tester for Interior? Landrieu for Energy? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tommypaine, PassionateJus

      Heitkamp for AG?  Might as well give up more seats to the GOP - Pres Obama learned NOTHING from 2008.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:43:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sigh. (6+ / 0-)

        First off the only seat we lost in 2008 was President Obama's, granted that didn't always look to be the case. I'm not scared of facing Brown. I think if Patrick appoints Vicki Kennedy then we will be highly favored, enough to scare him away. Even without Kennedy we will still be favored. It took all the stars aligning to elect him in the first place, we will not take the threat lightly this time. In a lot of ways him running would be a net positive. I would much rather face him for a Senate seat than Governor and if we beat him again then we can put the final nail in his political coffin. I'm ready.

      •  lol we had this same discusion (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        back during the back in the 1st term.  Some were saying to appoint Chet Edwards

        Some other nominees: Jim Matheson, and John Barrow.

        24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

        by lordpet8 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:21:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

        Come on.............Brown lost handily this year.  And was the only incumbent senator to lose his seat.  And squandered a lot of the good will the people of Massachusetts had toward him by attacking Warren the way he did.

        I don't understand the fear people have of him taking Kerry's seat.  I think we saw this year that he's not quite the master politician they've tried to portray him as.  I actually think if Coakley hadn't run such a shitty campaign she would've won and it wouldn't have been terribly close.

    •  Sorry if this is rude, but (8+ / 0-)

      the whining about this special election on the front page is unbelievable.

      Criticize the president for giving Brown a chance, fine.

      But this is the guy everyone here was so eager to defeat just a few months ago. And we did. By 8 points.

      Yes, he'd be a strong candidate in a special. Assuming he doesnt run for governor. But my goodness, this isnt 2010, and he's still a guy who lost a month ago, by 8 points.

      •  This was an unnecessary risk though (7+ / 0-)

        Surely one of the other 310 million people in the country could serve as Secretary of state without triggering a potentially embarrassing agenda derailing special election loss. Although I'm not part of the panic caucus (I still think we can, and more likely than not will, beat Brown) it just seems like a very unnecessary risk to take given what a disaster a Brown win would be for our political standing.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:14:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If Democrats can't win elections in Massachusetts (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slacks, jj32, DCCyclone, lordpet8

        The party doesn't deserve power.

        I am not worried.

        •  I don't think we'll lose but... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, Chachy, James Allen, MichaelNY

          There are many reasons to think Scott Brown has a better chance of winning in a special election than he did in 2012

          1. no Presidential level turnout

          2. Republicans will be more likely to turn out for a chance of a rare victory in the state for their favorite candidate than Dems will be for a random special election

          3. The candidate we get will probably be much worse than  Elizabeth Warren

          I think we win but this does sound like an unnecessary risk.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:29:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Warren was not an exceptional candidate (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, gabjoh, DCCyclone

            Yes, she could fundraise like a madwoman, and she had support from the leftmost activists. But as a candidate I found her very bland and too wonky to be personable and the most electable. She won, which is good, but she was not an exceptional candidate in any way shape or form.

            As for the upcoming special election, Democrats have a huge starting point advantage. Obama got 60.7% of the vote in the Bay State, which is a higher percentage of the vote than Romney got in places like Kansas, Tennessee, and Alabama. If Democrats can't win in Massachusetts, they don't deserve power. I firmly believe that.

          •  One big difference (5+ / 0-)

            from the last special is there's not likely to be a "backlash" brewing against Obama and Dems in the near future as there was with HCR and the tea baggers in 2010. So Brown won't have that wind at his back this time.

          •  Boy, I'm sorry but this is not well-considered (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, NMLib, R30A

            It's Massachusetts, it's not a purple state, Democrats never need "Presidential-level" turnout.

            Republicans are a trivial percentage of voters in this state, somewhere around 10%.  Their turnout rate doesn't matter except in elections that are already razor-tight even with normal turnout.

            Elizabeth Warren was a novice candidate, she'd never run for anything in her life, and still Brown got his ass kicked as an incumbent.  And everyone seems to have amnesia, or maybe doesn't realize this in the first place, that she was running a "meh" campaign that suffered some trouble, and she did a major shake-up in her media strategy after Labor Day.  There is some mythology about Warren''s campaign that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

            There is no risk.  

            What matters, all that matters, is that Massachusetts is a liberal Democratic state that very quickly rejected and turned out its one token Republican.  The voters made up their minds, they don't like Republicans and their flirtation is over.

            We're going to win this special by double-digits, against Brown or anyone else.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 08:36:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Irrational exuberance much? (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca, Zack from the SFV
              We're going to win this special by double-digits, against Brown or anyone else.
              I understand that Massachusetts is a liberal state (and that's why I ultimately think we'll win even if Brown runs).

              However, I also understand that Brown outperformed Romney by double digits with Presidential year turnout against an opponent who had tens of millions of dollars to define herself over a period of many months. I don't understand how one would think he'd lose by even more in a special then he did in much more adverse circumstances in 2012 running downballot from a Democratic nominee who  was carrying the state by 20 points.

              Although I certainly think we'd be favored, saying that Brown would have no chance at all is just as irrational as saying that he'd be a sure winner.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:16:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Because he isn't running as an incumbent... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                Incumbency matters, I don't understand why so many people ignore that fact.

                Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                by NMLib on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 03:35:00 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Who's ignoring that fact? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Englishlefty, Zack from the SFV

                  Besides, he might be viewed as an almost-incumbent by a lot of voters; that remains to be seen (or not seen, if he doesn't run).

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 04:11:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  What's an "almost-incumbent"? (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                    He's not a senator, if he runs, he'll be running as a former senator, and it's not particularly hard to run a campaign around "Hey, Massachusetts, you guys voted this guy out of office for a reason, would you like me to remind of that reason?"

                    The analysis that a lot of the ones who are worried about Brown running again boil down to "Scott Brown won by 5 in 2009, but lost by 8 in 2012, ergo his ceiling is +5 but his floor is -8" or "Well, Scott Brown outperformed Mitt Romney by 12 points" which, while interesting (I guess), it does inherently ignore the basic (true) premise that all other things being equal, incumbents tend to outperform non-incumbents in most elections, and incumbents who try to make comebacks (particularly ones in hostile states/districts) tend to do worse than they did before.

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 05:36:59 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Your last sentence is key (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      NMLib, MichaelNY

                      This isn't a purple state.  So this isn't like a comeback by Carol Shea-Porter who won after losing, or Charlie Bass who won after losing, both in the same state.

                      Nor is it like a blue district or state Member or Senator winning after losing, like happens in the first election after a wave election where some fluke losses are reversed.  I don't remember comebacks like that off the top of my head in 2012 (not that there weren't any, just that I can't recall them instantly), but David Price comes to mind in 1996 after he lost in a fluke in a blue district in 1994 (there were others like that in '96, again they don't come to mind instantly).

                      An incumbent who loses in a state already hostile to his party is very damaged goods.  The only time you win as damaged goods is when your opponent, too, is very damaged goods, as scandal-plagued or some such thing...and even then it could be uphill, as it was for Roy Barnes in 2010.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 09:48:24 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  You make some good points (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Zack from the SFV

                        But I don't agree with this:

                        An incumbent who loses in a state already hostile to his party is very damaged goods.  The only time you win as damaged goods is when your opponent, too, is very damaged goods, as scandal-plagued or some such thing...and even then it could be uphill, as it was for Roy Barnes in 2010.
                        It would be uphill, yes, but I don't think his only shot would be a scandal-plagued opponent. All he needs is an opponent who runs a subpar campaign. He might beat Coakley a second time, for example.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:01:35 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I increasingly see Coakley as his worst situation (0+ / 0-)

                          If I'm him, I'd rather face someone new to the scene without a lot of campaign experience.

                          The one person I don't want to face is Coakley, because she has a track record for winning elections, she already recovered her image through her reelection since the last time he beat her, and she's going to make a point of avoiding the same mistakes she made last time.  And for a Democrat in Massachusetts, there are extremely few mistakes that can cause you to lose a federal race to a Republican.  Coakley made most of them last time, everything but getting roiled in personal scandal (and even that wasn't enough to knock out Tierney just now), so the odds of her screwing up like that again are extraordinarily slim.

                          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:13:41 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  sigh (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, bumiputera

                            "she has a track record for winning elections" - she did in 2009/2010 as well!

                            "she already recovered her image through her reelection" - yes, if Scott Brown runs a non-campaign as her 2010 opponent did, she will win for sure.

                            "she's going to make a point of avoiding the same mistakes she made last time" - I've seen many people make this argument, and it doesn't get more convincing. If you want to give her the benefit of the doubt, that's great, but the way people have been putting Coakley on a pedestal lately is bizarre and in fact bears strong resemblance to the way she was talked up in 2009.

                            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                            by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 02:04:07 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Has there been reporting... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Zack from the SFV

                            ...that Coakley is a bad candidate who was exposed, as opposed to a good candidate who ran one disastrously bad campaign?

                            Thing is, what happened in that special is what I can picture happening to a lot of pols.  Coakley wasn't alone in taking that race for granted, no one piped up that she was doing anything until January, save what I recall later learing were a a few vindicated commenters on Blue Mass Group who were handwringing in December because she wasn't campaigning.

                            There are two ways to look at Coakley, as I showed in my opening line in this comment.  Do we have evidence that it's the former, that she's a bad candidate as a rule?  I think, for example, Alex Sink was a bad candidate as a rule, because she went through five(!) campaign managers and that's a red flag that the candidate is personally a problem.  I've never read or heard anything about Coakley indicating she herself is a problem.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 03:48:05 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  This is someone who said (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, sapelcovits

                            a Red Sox hero was a Yankee fan and indignantly refused to "shake hands outside of Fenway" in the cold, and you think she just had one bad campaign? I mean, you have to really try to be that bad!

                            I give her no benefit of any doubt.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:18:12 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Politically,Coakley's mistakes are near Akin-level (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, James Allen

                            The only chance that Scott Brown would have to return to the Senate would be if Coakley gets the Democratic nomination, again.

                            However, I do think Coakley is a better candidate than Alvin Greene.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:47:37 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I'm dismissive of those gaffes (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            I want to read/here credible sourcing that those are reflections of her usual attitude, temperament, etc.  I've never read or heard that.  I haven't heard she's sweet as a kitten, either.  I just haven't heard anything.  That often means, but not always, that the individual's personality and temperament are ordinary and unremarkable, nothing bad or great.

                            Those gaffes came off to me as dumb things said in the heat of frustration over a campaign whose difficulty hit her like a brick, she just wasn't ready for that.  And that's bad......but it was virtually universal through the state and national Democratic parties.

                            The thing about campaigning is, a lot of campaign pros will insist that a candidate taking a bloc of time to shake hands in a public place is a waste of time.  When I volunteered for my incumbent Delegate's (ultimately losing) campaign in 2009, the campaign manager mentioned to me how our Delegate was concerned she should be outside a supermarket or popular restaurant shaking hands one day because her opponent was doing so, and the campaign manager told her, "good, she's wasting her time, you shouldn't be doing that."  (My Delegate ended up doing it at a supermarket the next day anyway!)

                            I bet Coakley was following that CW, and made the screw-up of blurting out in public insidery campaign advice that of course came off terribly.

                            She wins a lot of elections.  She lost once.  That means something to me.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:54:46 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  After "Conviction" (movie), I don't trust (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, bumiputera

                            Coakley in public office, ref http://www.exonerate.org/...

                            Yes, Coakley has denied this (and the movie version) of events, ref http://www.marthacoakley.com/...

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 08:54:24 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  if you have to say things like (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, bumiputera

                            "she's not a bad candidate, she just ran a bad campaign" in order to talk her up, well...I honestly think that speaks for itself.

                            to my ears, the waving away of her gaffes just sounds like making excuses at some point. and if you want something that's specific to her as a candidate rather than the campaign she ran, try the Fells Acres case. not taking a side on whether it's fair that she suffered politically from that, just pointing out that Coakley herself had a big weak point for the Republicans to exploit.

                            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                            by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:59:01 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  An almost-incumbent (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Zack from the SFV

                      is someone with wide name recognition who is very familiar to the voters as someone who was recently a senator.

                      Your other points are well taken. I don't think that his floor is -8. But perhaps you would agree that he's obviously the strongest candidate the Republican could run in Massachusetts - unless you think Bill Weld would be a tougher candidate, which is conceivable because Weld has always run as a genuine moderate and won't be contradicted by aspects of his record that I, at least, know of.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 12:59:22 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I do think that Weld would be stronger but... (3+ / 0-)

                        I don't believe that either can win either. Being the strongest Republicans in a state like Massachusetts doesn't really mean a lot to me, it's like Bob Kerrey being the strongest Democrat in Nebraska, or Roy Barnes being the strongest Democrat in Georgia, or Ronnie Musgrove being the strong Democrat in Mississippi (you see my pattern, I'm assuming).

                        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                        by NMLib on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:09:08 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yes I do (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Zack from the SFV

                          And I agree that there's clearly a much less than even chance for Brown or Weld to win a Senate seat, all things being equal.

                          A win for Governor is a lot more likely, though probably still less than 50%, all things being equal.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:26:42 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  You're not an "almost-incumbent" after losing (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    NMLib, itskevin

                    They know they voted him out.

                    No one who voted to oust him this time is going to vote to put him back in next time absent some new information that makes them decide they once again really dislike the Democrat, or once again are really scared of Democrats broadly which is what happened in 2010.

                    So that automatically puts the 2011 special out of Brown's reach without help from circumstances out of his control.

                    Then the reality of incumbency on top of that, what NMLib is talking about, is that once you lose, some of your previous voters abandon you and won't vote for you again, even after voting for you in your most recent losing bid.  There are circumstances where this doesn't happen and you can win after all, as I identified in another comment.  But those circumstances all exclude a comeback attempt in a party perennially hostile to the candidate's state, which is what Brown faces.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 09:54:22 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Incumbency Matters (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Chachy, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

                  But most literature points to incumbency mattering a hell of alot less the first term than later, and even not mattering that much during the second reelection campaign. You need to get to a third or fourth campaign for some good effect.

                  See here:

                  Praino, Rodrigo and Daniel Stockemer. 2012. “Tempus Edax Rerum: Measuring the Incumbency     Advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives.” The Social Science Journal 49: 270-274.

                  What this means is that Brown is simply an excellent candidate.

                  I'm also pretty sure there's literature out there that shows that former members also have some small boost, just not as large as currently serving members. Paired with the above paper, though, I'd bet that it wouldn't matter for Brown because he was a freshman.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:53:41 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Bolded: (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY
                    What this means is that Brown is simply an excellent candidate.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:54:23 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Um, he just proved he's not (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      GradyDem, NMLib, SLDemocrat

                      He just ran a losing campaign making his primary message about Warren's race(!).  He didn't even highlight primarily his own record or persona, that wasn't his focus.

                      This business of belittling the significance of his loss, and further trying to rationalize the belittling, and insisting that he won once before that, is classic Democratic handwringing and completely missing the forest from the trees.

                      "Oh he wasn't really an incumbent so it doesn't mean much that he lost."  [LOL on its face, he was an incumbent a month ago and he's not anymore heading into another special.]

                      "Oh 8 points isn't that bad."  [Coakley lost by less and it's the only election she ever lost out of many, so I guess the same people consider her even more excellent?]

                      "We have to worry about an energized Republican base."  [Because there are so many in Massachusetts!]."

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:00:26 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  ... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Englishlefty, MichaelNY

                        He just proved he was. He lost by only single digits in one of the bluest states in the damned country.

                        You are starting to sound almost like a trope and the belligerent bashing of others on this issue is simply mean.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:18:46 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  DCC is not wrong that Brown (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          KingofSpades, NMLib, SLDemocrat, DCCyclone

                          ran a terrible campaign. Incumbency, his inexplicable popularity due to bipartisanship fetishiztion and millions of Wall Street money is what kept it close.

                          I'm not denying that Scott Brown is by far the best candidate that Massachusetts Republicans have. But the point is that's a low bar.

                          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                          by HoosierD42 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:23:17 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  That's simply not true to the degree that many (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Chachy, MichaelNY

                            here are advancing.

                            If you measure against the only thing that we have to measure against, which is the actual election result, Brown ran, if anything, a decent campaign.

                            Yes, there were many mistakes, but every campaign makes mistakes.

                            And we need to be wary of saying "because I think those were mistakes it means those were actually mistakes". I think that if you delved deep into the data that the campaign itself had, you'd see that, for instance, his railing against her as a Harvard professor or her ethnic background probably gained or kept him some votes from white ethnics, the very voters he needed in order to win.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:34:48 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Well even then he lost by 8 points. (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                            So it obviously was a bad gamble to take in a presidential year in a blue state. His attacks on Harvard or Warren's ancestry might just as well have sent voters to Warren.

                            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                            by HoosierD42 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:39:00 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Or dented his favorables (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                            by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:50:25 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Your assumptions about Brown's data are dubious (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            NMLib, MichaelNY

                            Brown hammered Warren on that issue, the media played along, and by all accounts she never did have a good response.  So if there was any "data" in Brown's campaign that this tack would work, it was the same quality as the private polling GOP campaigns relied on.

                            It struck me as dumb on its face at the time, and events proved it was, indeed, dumb.

                            I wouldn't assume, given how attacking her ancestry looked on its face and what actually happened as a result, that Brown's campaign had reliable data that this was a good idea.

                            It's just as likely that they just ran a bad campaign.  Reinforcing that to be more likely the case is other things in Brown's attack message......like attacking Warren for being at Harvard and an Oklahoma native in the same breath.  So what is the audience supposed to think?...does he want them to think "ivory tower snob" or "carpetbagging hick," which is it?  Rather than a coherent message, it looked like "let's throw it all at the wall and see if something sticks."

                            Meanwhile, did anyone come away from this year's MA-Sen election thinking Brown painted any kind of picture of himself?  Or even tried?

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:06:16 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Consider that (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                          Warren was a first-time campaigner and Brown had incumbency advantage.  and he lost more than I anticipated (I predicted 53-47% loss for him).

                          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                          by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:49:55 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  Also: (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, jncca
                        "Oh he wasn't really an incumbent so it doesn't mean much that he lost."  [LOL on its face, he was an incumbent a month ago and he's not anymore heading into another special.]
                        This is not what I said and you damned well know it. Stop mischaracterizing my comments.
                        "Oh 8 points isn't that bad."  [Coakley lost by less and it's the only election she ever lost out of many, so I guess the same people consider her even more excellent?]
                        Him and Coakley are not analogous. We are speaking in "relative to the state" terms. Coakley was god-awful because she lost in one of the bluest states in the country. If she lost in a red state by only a few points we'd be lauding her as one of the best candidates of the cycle! On that token, if a Republican lost by only a few points in one of the bluest states they should be lauded as one of their best candidates. And guess what!? (and I feel compelled to use all caps here, because it seems to not get through to you any other way:) BROWN DID JUST THAT.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:21:54 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  The key there is "House of Representatives" (0+ / 0-)

                    Meaning that the study you quoted me measures how incumbency measures House races not Senate races, so that doesn't tell us nearly as much as you want to assume (for example, House races involve shorter terms, with fewer people to campaign to, and a lower-profile).

                    Plus, you don't even say that incumbency, even in the first term, has no impact, or even minimal impact, just that the effect is "less" than in later re-election bids, so... your premise that Brown is "just an excellent candidate" isn't even proven by the research that you've given me (and by the way, I still don't agree with your premise, look at Susan Collins, Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton, and Jeff Bingaman as a few examples where what you say falls apart).

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:57:07 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  ... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Englishlefty, MichaelNY

                      The distinction doesn't matter.

                      There is a whole thread of literature completely discrediting the idea that redistricting has a major effect on the incumbency effect or even that the shape of the district itself has an effect on the size of the incumbency advantage. The corollary to this is that Senate elections are subject to the same patterns as House races, because the size or shape of the district is immaterial.

                      Now, the fact that the senate seat is a six year term does have a material impact, but that simply means that by the time they get to their next election it would be equivalent to having three house elections.

                      However, because Brown was running for reelection after only two years, it stands to reason that his election would be more analogous to a two year House term than a normal Senate six year period.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 11:01:21 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Never said anything about redistricting (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        But let me ask you a question, if Scott Brown hadn't been running as an incumbent, and there were just an open seat in Massachusetts and state senator Scott Brown was running for that seat against Elizabeth Warren, would he have done nearly as well as he had done? Would he have only lost by 8? Would he have had the same strong fundraising that he had as an incumbent? Would he even have any name recognition to even try to resist Obama's coattails?

                        I don't think you can answer any of those questions with a yes, and that matters. Brown's fundraising will be weaker than it was an incumbent, and I suspect that the "excitement" about Brown among Republicans (however few of them there are) is actually going to dissipate, nothing kills excitement quite like a loss, and a fairly bad one (I don't care if it was "good for Massachusetts, or that he "outperformed Romney", because that's still not a "close" loss either).

                        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                        by NMLib on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 11:27:44 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

        •  They would still have control of the Senate (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          okiedem, gabjoh, Englishlefty

          and would still "deserve power," whatever that means. As we all know, the electorate for a special election is much different from the electorate in presidential years and even midterms. I don't like this one bit. Even if Brown has a 20-30% chance to beat whomever the Democrats choose, it doesn't seem worth it.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:26:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Completely agree -- I still think we'll win but... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, MichaelNY

            there's definitely a non-trivial possibility we won't and there is no value added in having Kerry as Sec. of State over another qualified Democrat.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:45:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Warren is a national rockstar... (0+ / 0-)

        Markey is not.  Brown will not sign any non-third party outside spending pledge this time around either so the Citizen United money will flood in this time.   3rd party spending is still heavily one-sided in favor of GOP.  

        Brown still has high favorables last time I checked.  Dems only vote in Presidential elections - they got heir big win with Obama and even Warren.  This election will be 4-5 months away - Brown has his campaign all but ready made at this point.  Markey or whomever would have to build from scratch.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:33:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Senator-Elect Warren. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY, SLDemocrat, HoosierD42

          Winning does such wonders for your reputation. Before the election she was an inexperienced ultra-liberal schoolmarm, and now a rock star.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:40:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, Brown has good favorables (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and while a special election electorate wont be as favorable to Dems as a presidential electorate, this is still MA.

          I think people are reading way too much into the 2010 special election. Everything came together for Brown in that election. The national Dems and the state Dems, arent going to fall asleep on this race. With the work of OFA and the state Democratic party, there is already a statewide infrastructure for a Dem candidate.

          And I have to think any Dem candidate is going to run a far better campaign than Coakley.

        •  aside from the millions Markey and (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          the other Dem contenders have stashed away, their ties with the establishment and the machines, etc.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:51:01 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  We'd actually benefit from 3rd-party spending (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jj32

          in a special, it seems to me. Brown's campaign itself would be able to raise money much more quickly than our side, given that he's already got a national fundraising base. The third parties would help us even that out. Brown was probably scared of them last time; that's why he agreed to sign the pledge. Environmental groups had been hammering him hard early in the cycle, and his numbers were taking a hit from it.

          Plus, the messages our groups would be airing are much more likely to resonate naturally with the MA electorate, given the state's ideological leanings.

          PS. Having said all that, I bet Brown has close to a 50/50 chance of winning the special. This won't be easy.

          •  Koch and Rove will smear any challenger... (0+ / 0-)

            Allowing Brown to take a hand-off the negative attacks approach and instead play up his everyman independent Republican schtick, in his barn coat and pick-up truck.  

            Koch's and Rove would have destroyed Warren with negative attack ads before she even got her footing.  

            We'd have to hope Rove and Koch backing Brown would be used as proof that he's a party line Republican.  

            They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:49:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not to be too critical, when I agree, at least, (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, itskevin, CF of Aus

              that nominating Kerry is a bad idea, but... this seems like an odd time to point to Rove and the Kochs' ability to influence the outcome of Senate campaigns.

            •  Our third party groups (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV

              will be all over Brown, and given the state's lean, the issues on which they'll be able to attack (abortion, environment, money in politics, judges) are likely to be much more salient than anything Rove's team can dish out.

              These groups will do the attacking for us. Our candidate will be able to focus on the issues and on introducing him or herself to the state's electorate.

              Plus, given there will be only one big election on the map in the country, we'll be able to match Republican dark money dollar for dollar. We won't be outspent, at least not in any appreciable way.

      •  My dislike of the front pagers is really starting (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, gabjoh, lordpet8

        To grow and it's not like I even journey to the front page, its only when I stumble on things that have been cross posted onto the front page from DKE or vice-versa.

        You know what everyone should do in DKE to make it a better place?  Every time you refer to a republican, call them reTHUGlican.  You know, because that doesn't sound childish.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:52:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Congratulations to my Senator if this is true. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Audrid

      I just hope he doesn't confirm my fears about him.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:48:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll wait for more confirmation... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

      Before I say this is a done deal.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:50:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama, worst electoral politics party leader (0+ / 0-)

      in the past half century.

      There is simply no way to justify such a moronic move.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:17:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That is over the top (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        As a special election in MA is also an opportunity to continue the narrative of the new Democratic era.

        I hope; therefore, I can live.

        by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:12:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Worst isn't over the top (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Englishlefty

          Moronic may be... "truly terrible idea" would be better.

          As for continuing the narrative, nothing could be further from the truth.  It's Massachussets.  There is nothing to be gained here.  Any victory less than 7 points will be spun as a defeat, against Weld or Brown.

          A Dem winning in MA is a yawn.  A Rep winning in MA will be treated as a calamity................. again.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 01:53:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A win is spun as a win in the media (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Even Jean Schmidt's terrible showing against Paul Hackett a few cycles back was taken as a win for Rs.

            I hope; therefore, I can live.

            by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 02:15:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  This is hard not to analyze from a policy (0+ / 0-)

            perspective, since presumably what's gained for Obama is something about Kerry's particular positions and abilities relative to his own, and relative to other potential Secretaries of State.  (Some of that might be hard for anyone without a lot of inside knowledge to analyze.)  As they say, this is an election with an electorate of one.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 07:39:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Dems kept the seats of Salazar, Clinton, Biden. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And I really doubt KS or AZ would have been D pickups if not for Sebelius and Napolitano (as was excitedly speculated at the time).  Some of that was luck, but there's luck all around in politics.  I think this particular thing is greatly over-emphasized.  And I don't think the "spin" matters at all.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 07:35:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  They probably wouldn't have won but... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Napolitano running could have moved McCain to the center. If Vilsack ran against Grassley, there's a small but significant chance he would have been less difficult in the health care negotiations. Although Mitch McConnell had only 40-42 senators in his caucus in 09-10, almost none of them were vulnerable incumbents. As a result, he could more easily pursue his obstructionist agenda. I suspect he would have been about as bad, but there's a chance the health care debate may not have been as politically costly for Obama if a couple incumbent Republicans had to worry about tough races.

          •  This is assuming that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, jncca

            they even wanted to run, or would have run without Obama appointing them.  We all know that a long-serving incumbent Senator doesn't always draw the top potential challenger in their state, to say the least.  (Hell, look who ended up running against actually-vulnerable Harry Reid!  And Grassley is far more popular.)  Especially popular incumbents, and from what I can recall Grassley is quite popular.

            I think we should remember these are all experienced and professional pols who do their own polling and who also usually know the lay of the land in their states, and who know how to plan their own careers.  And not every politician even wants to be a Senator.  Vilsack agreed to be Ag Sec (which I did forget about), he wasn't forced.  Do we really think he didn't consider running against Grassley?  Odds are, either he didn't want to, or didn't think he'd have much of a chance.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:36:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Indeed, I can think of few (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            incumbent-challenger "battle royales" offhand, involving a major politician--at the level of a Governor--running, successfully or not, against a popular multi-term incumbent Senator.  Roth/Carper fits, and perhaps so does Santorum/Casey (I did say popular, though).  Daschle/Thune.  Big incumbents lose, but not always to big challengers, who are conceivably more risk-averse as a group.  Any other good examples, though?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:44:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  What "spin" is there to the Arizona law? (0+ / 0-)

          "worst" may be debatable.  "Terrible" is not.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:54:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes--and I did forget that Brewer became Gov. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            So, good call.  But!  Not really a matter of electoral politics.  Unless youtthink Napolitano would have been succeeded by a D had she served out her term.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 02:52:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno I wasn't too happy with Clinton (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        taking Bentsen out of the Senate. That seat has been pretty much been forever out of our hands since then. At least in MA even if somehow Brown pull out a win he'd have tough fight every election cycle and we'd get back that seat in the end.

        24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

        by lordpet8 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:34:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Liz Warren showed the people of MA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jj32

      what Scott Brown was really about, and went on to beat him by 8. IDK why people are reacting like they didn't see this coming, there was a very could chance that Kerry was going to be the new SOS. So calm down, take a huge breath. Scott Brown will be beaten again, whether he runs for senate (I doubt it) or governor (likely).

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:05:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he has a better shot at Governor (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, sapelcovits, lordpet8

        and it wouldn't amaze me at all if he won.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:20:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree with you he runs for Governor (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jj32

          but I disagree with that he'll win. I think Coakley learned her lesson the hard way, and won't make that mistake again.  

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:25:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't say he would win (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, sapelcovits, LordMike

            I said it wouldn't amaze me if he won.

            And I dearly hope Coakley isn't his opponent, because that would greatly improve his chances.

            I don't know if he'd be that bad, though, considering that - correct me if I'm wrong - the Democrats have veto-proof majorities in the Massachusetts State Legislature.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 03:31:58 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Warren beat Brown by 8, but (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike, jncca

        I don't think there's really evidence that she "showed the people of MA what Scott Brown was really about".  Election results don't put us inside voters' heads.

        Not like this is bulletproof, but here's the exit poll: 50% of MA voters thought Brown's positions were "about right", and he had a 60/38 favorability rating--better, in fact, than Elizabeth Warren's!  (53% said the same of her positions, and h/t conspiracy.)

        But he lost 20% of the voters who liked his positions and 24% of the voters who liked him personally--and, with them, probably the election as well, since (assuming, shakily, that we can use exit polls for anything at all) that's about 10-15% of the electorate.  

        We can dismiss those numbers all we like, but come on.  If we had an incumbent lose with exit polling like that in a super-red state we would be champing at the bit to run them again.  Do you think kos tends to overpraise Republicans?

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:34:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's not to say he'd win. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Chachy, LordMike

        I really have no idea.  There aren't a lot of cases like this that I'm aware of.  But plenty of politicians lose and then win again.  We saw plenty of examples of that last November.

        But the outcome isn't all that interests me; the analysis does too, and I really doubt Brown lost this time because the campaign proved to voters that he was lousy, or whatever.  He could still lose next time, and lose big.  It's Massachusetts.  But I think it's dangerous to assume that an election proves that voters (collectively? permanently?) agree with everyone on the winning side about any particular thing.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 05:58:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Hobbit (0+ / 0-)

    Has anyone home to see this yet? Is it something I should throw 9 bucks down the toilet for, or wait until It's out on blueray?

    21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:32:28 AM PST

    •  I will let you know tomorrow afternoon (0+ / 0-)

      I would go tonight, but my company is holding their Christmas Party, and I am not the type to turn down free beer and food.

    •  I plan to see it this weekend (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      It's kinda hard to imagine how they could stretch the Hobbit into a 3-movie saga, but the reviews seem good.  Not as good as LOTR, but still good.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:45:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It was mostly entertaining, but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I was bored in a few parts of the movie. They really could have cut out probably about 30-40 minutes of it and it wouldn't have hurt the story at all.

      And I may sound like an old man, but I'm tired of movie theaters blasting the sound at ear-splitting levels. I have to put my fingers in my ears through half of the movie.

  •  More grave SOS news (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    Secretary Clinton has suffered a concussion as a result of a fall and illness.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 11:57:36 AM PST

  •  VA-Gov: POS poll has Terry ahead 43-42 (7+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:02:49 PM PST

  •  Tennessee non-partisan map crowdsourcing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Seeing as I did Kentucky earlier, I'll post the two drafts of a Tennessee non-partisan "communities of interest" map to see which one you guys think is better:
    Photobucket
    Photobucket
    This is the first version and is what I included in my diary when I did all the states the first time.

    Photobucket
    Photobucket
    And this is the second one I did and the one I'm leaning more towards now.  I especially love that it only splits 5 counties.

    What do you all think? Any improvements that could be done to either one?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 12:40:56 PM PST

  •  NE-Sen 2012 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn

    I've been meaning to ask about this because no one else has brought it up, but I haven't had time until now.

    We saw in the final week or two of the NE-Sen race that momentum was clearly shifting in Kerrey's favor. Between polling from the Kerrey campaign, Pharos Research, and the Omaha World-Herald, it seemed like Kerrey was closing the gap. The endorsement he received from Chuck Hagel at the end of the campaign seemed to solidify the notion of momentum.

    Considering all of this, Kerrey still lost by a very wide margin. Was the polling all incorrect, or did Karl Rove's late dump of cash into the race tip the scale back firmly in Fischer's favor? Is there another possible explanation for this?

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:12:44 PM PST

    •  I think that if Kerrey had run in a non prez year (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, bythesea, sawolf, LordMike

      He may have closed the gap more, maybe even won it.  With Obama at the top of the ticket though, I really don't think there would have been enough ticket splitters needed to elect Kerrey.

      I'm sure Nelson would have had just as hard a time running for re-election this year.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 04:50:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There wasn't any useful polling in that race (5+ / 0-)

      There were only three pollsters that bothered to poll the race after Fischer won the primary (discounting the inevitable day-after-the-primary Rasmussen poll): We Ask America, Pharos Research, and something called Wiese Research, which appears to be a Nebraska firm that only polled this Senate race. I don't think there can be much drawn from that sample.

    •  Yeah, it was a little weird (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But considering Obama only got 38% of the vote in the state, I suppose it wasn't too surprising. I thought Kerrey would get a little more crossover vote, but - like 4-5% - and I thought Obama would do 41-42% there, which would have suggested something like 45-47% for Kerrey.

      In the end, Obama did a few points worse than expected, and Kerrey did slightly worse in crossover votes than expected. End result: 41%.

      TBH, Kerrey lost this race the moment Fischer won the primary. His bumpy rollout didn't help matters either. But had he declared up front (instead of first turning it down then jumping back in), and had Brunning or (especially) Stenberg won, then Kerrey would have a decent shot, though he would have remained an underdog.

      He did sort of have this sad (and understandably bitter) interview post-election, which is worth a read.

  •  things not to do (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat

    in the catagory of things not to do as campaign treasurer

    PM Alert: FPPC fines treasurer for loaning committee funds to strip club dancer

    In case you missed it:

    "California campaign treasurers, take note: Your love interest's plastic surgery isn't an acceptable use of the political cash you control."

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    the above warning for aspiring campaign treasurers

  •  MA-Sen: It should be noted that Tsongas is being (4+ / 0-)

    named as a potential candidate.

    U.S. Rep. Niki Tsongas, another Lowell Democrat whose husband Paul Tsongas held the Senate seat before Kerry, has been mentioned as a possible candidate, and the third-term Congresswoman has shown an ability to raise money inside and outside of Massachusetts to compete with a Republican like Brown.
    “It’s premature to speculate about this. The president hasn’t made any announcements,” said Tsongas’s chief of staff Katie Elbert Enos, neither confirming nor denying that Tsongas was exploring a run for Kerry’s seat.
    She just won reelection with 65% of the vote.

    http://www.wickedlocal.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:16:52 PM PST

  •  OMG, is this a joke? (14+ / 0-)
    The New York Times profiles former Clinton strategist Mark Penn show is now in charge of "strategic and special projects" at Microsoft and "much of his job has involved efforts to trip up Google, which Microsoft has failed to dislodge from its perch atop the lucrative Internet search market."
    SELL MICROSOFT STOCK NOW!!!!!

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:22:36 PM PST

    •  That would explain Windows 8. (5+ / 0-)
    •  This is my major concern about (7+ / 0-)

      Clinton 2016. Hillary with Obama's campaign team would be awesome. But I worry about a return of Penn, Schoen, Lanny Davis, etc.

      •  I would hope that Hillary is smart enough.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        ...to not make the same mistakes twice.

        What I cannot understand is how morons like Mark Penn manage to keep finding work!

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 09:35:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She won't have Obama's team, but... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, LordMike, R30A

        ...she does need to shed Penn and everyone with his point of view among the people she already has in her orbit.

        And then the people in her orbit need to copy OFA on nuts-and-bolts mechanics.

        Which brings me to my second fear beyond Penn et al.:  that if she runs, her team decides out of pride and ego to do their own thing and reinvent a new wheel, instead of just borrowing and building on what's there.  They should be focused on trying to hold all the Obama voters and then build on that with more women and Appalachian-and-Ozark whites.  I fear they'll instead ditch the first part of that, holding the Obama coalition and converting them into Hillary voters, and instead just build from scratch based on the second thing.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 10:07:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't get the distinction here (0+ / 0-)
          They should be focused on trying to hold all the Obama voters and then build on that with more women and Appalachian-and-Ozark whites.  I fear they'll instead ditch the first part of that, holding the Obama coalition and converting them into Hillary voters, and instead just build from scratch based on the second thing.
          If they "convert the Obama coalition into Hillary voters" and also appeal to more white men and women, aren't they doing what you suggest?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:13:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  My phrasing in hindsight was poor...... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, itskevin

            I was restating what "the first part" was, and identifying that as the thing I fear Team Hillary wouldn't do.  In other words, out of pride don't bother IDing Obama voters to try to win them over to Hillary.

            There is massive overlap of course, but Obama appeals more to white suburbanites and young white men, and of course black voters, and I fear those groups, Team Hillary will take for granted or otherwise rationalize not pursuing as the same priority.

            I note this is a naked fear of mine from having lived through the Clinton years and seeing what they do, and then having the benefit of hindsight and having to remind myself people like Mark Penn, Doug Schoen, and Dick Morris(!) were top advisers who personally had Bill's ear.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:18:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Coca-Cola made a similar mistake in '81 (10+ / 0-)

      when they hired Pat Caddell. The result was "New Coke", which lasted a matter of months. Since they proceeded to corn syrup afterwards, Coke was never the same since (unless you get Mexican Coke).

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:53:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Trivia question (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, LordMike, MichaelNY, itskevin

    I was rather surprised that Ed Markey seems seriously interested in running for the senate. (assuming Kerry gets to be sec of state). Markey's 36 years of seniority have even surpassed the late great Speaker Tip O'Neill's 34 years in the chamber.

    It got me wondering who was the most senior member of the house (in terms of length of service) to successfully run and win a senate race?

    24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

    by lordpet8 on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:08:18 PM PST

  •  random stats time (5+ / 0-)

    ->Nothing is being implied by any of this, so keep that in mind, It's just random stats.<-

    found that 13 Republican incumbents won by 10% or less on Nov/Dec, 2004 (and there were two more elected by 10 or less in special elections)

    The 13:

    Boustany (still around, safe R seat)
    Kuhl (lost in 08)
    Taylor (lost in 06)
    Chocola (lost in 06)
    Wilson (ran for Senate in 08, lost)
    Hostetler (lost in 06)
    Simmons (lost in 06)
    Kennedy (ran for Senate in 06, lost)
    Musgrave (lost in 08)
    Reichert (still around)
    Shays (lost in 08)
    Gerlach (still around)
    Sodrel (lost in 06)

    So out of 13, 6 lost/left in 2006, 4 lost/left in 2008, and 3 are still around.

    (Bilbray and Schmidt, both elected in specials, both lost in 2012, in different months)

    For comparison, 30 Rs won by 10% or less in 2012.

    Of the 10 who lost in 06/08

    Musgrave: 7% behind Bush in 04
    Simmons: 10% ahead of Bush in 04
    Shays: 6% ahead of Bush in 04
    Chocola: 2% behind Bush in 04
    Hostetler: 9% behind Bush in 04
    Sodrel: 10% behind Bush in 04
    Kennedy: 3% behind Bush in 04
    Wilson: 6% ahead of Bush in 04
    Kuhl: 5% behind Bush in 04
    Taylor: 2% behind Bush in 04

    And for reference, the 30 who won by 10% or less in 2012:

    McKeon, Runyan, Weber, Latham, Amash, Kline, King, Hudson, Rigell, Heck, Buchanan, Gibson, Grimm, Bill Johnson, Bentivolio, Pittenger, Southerland, Denham, Renacci, Barr, Reed, Webster, Rothfus, Terry, Coffman, Collins, Wajorski, Bachmann, Benishek, Davis

    The 2012 Republicans who are essentially successors of the Republicans on the 2004 list

    Gardner (Musgrave)
    Wajorski (Chocola)
    Bucshon (Hostettler)
    Young (Sodrel)
    Bachmann (Kennedy)
    Meadows (Taylor)
    Reed (Kuhl)

    So the 3 of 10 districts picked up which are still with Dems are CT2, CT4 and NM1.

    2 Republicans in 2004 won by 4 digits.
    7 Republicans in 2012 won by 4 digits (Everybody listed after Terry on the 30 list).

    And the Popular Vote-Congressional district gap for Kerry was 10.3% (48.3% of votes and 37.9% of CDs). For Obama it's 50.9% of votes and 46.4% of CDs.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Dec 15, 2012 at 10:17:40 PM PST

  •  So this really made my day (7+ / 0-)

    As you know being part of DKE gets me following all sorts races deep under the weeds. Sometimes I'll end up facebook friending certain politicos to keep tabs and what not. So it not surprising for me to be friends with random state legislators like Stephen Ortego

    But tonight I just suddenly realized I was friends with a guy who just won a seat to the Missouri house of reps (it was a safe D seat) But what was really interesting was that the guy, Jon Carpenter, had been Facebook friends with me since 2008. After a little more research found that he went to college in CA, In fact he was the president of USC college Dems and an intern to Difi. I guess it really pays to keep tabs on your political friends/contacts, you never where they will end up.

    24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

    by lordpet8 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 01:20:24 AM PST

  •  well that was quick... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Japan sure is quicker at counting votes than America. Polls only closed 30 min ago and already the opposition has a majority. what a disaster for the DPJ.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 03:36:04 AM PST

    •  nvm (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      they've barely counted any votes. all based on exit polls. the only actual vote counting I can find is in Nara's 4th district where some rural villages have reported.

      Hello Prime Minister Abe...again...

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 04:01:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  starting to think the DPJ guy in my district (0+ / 0-)

        is screwed too. he's only barely behind and it's only 37% in, but he's been behind the whole time and it doesn't really seem like any place of note is voting for him by a notable margin.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 05:58:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  All based on one exit poll (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, itskevin

        NHK's exit poll:

        LDP 275-310 seats
        NKP 27-35 seats
        (Total 302-345)
        DPJ 55-77 seats
        JRP 40-61 seats
        YP 11-24 seats
        JFP 7-16 seats
        JCP 6-12 seats
        SDP 1-4 seats
        It looks like a wipeout. The only question is whether LDP-NKP has a supermajority.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:23:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  good morning... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't remember what the threshold for a supermajority is, but the LDP already has a majority even before you add in the allied Komeito seats. Overall it's 325 for LDP/Komeito, plus 54 for Nippon Restoration (Hashimoto's party). The DPJ ranks got absolutely annihilated, going from 230 to 57. wow.

          as I mentioned upthread, late returns pushed the DPJ incumbent in my district ahead from behind, and he ended up winning by a somewhat-comfortable 3.2%. but in neighboring Kyoto-03, there was an upset, and the LDP guy won by 116 votes out of about 180,000 cast.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 02:13:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It would be "good afternoon" where I live (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The threshold for a supermajority is 320, which means they have the ability to pass bills, but only barely. Considering the still ideologically fractured nature of the LDP, I'm not sure how functional that is though.

            Fortunately, they don't have to do much besides pass a budget before the upper house election. Noda already did the hard stuff.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 02:22:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  "Nippon Restoration" sounds a little creepy. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, MichaelNY
            •  More than creepy in the rest of Asia... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Audrid, MichaelNY

              especially in countries subject to genocide from Japan during WWII.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 06:53:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yep. No less in Singapore. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, tietack, KingofSpades
                •  I recall you said your grandmother had memories of (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  tietack, MichaelNY, Audrid

                  the days of imperial Japan, but lost all of it when her memory went sour.

                  Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                  by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:27:02 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  The Japanese were very brutal in Malaya (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  tietack, Audrid

                  When I was living in Malaysia, I borrowed a Malay-language book from a friend of mine that had been published in the 50s and recounted, in novel form, the story of members of the Communist resistance during the Japanese occupation and what kinds of tortures were inflicted upon them in a prison camp somewhere in Perak. Some Malays did relatively OK during the occupation while Chinese people were treated with the brutality you'd expect, but there were at least several hundred Malays who were forced or induced through falsehood to become slave laborers building the railway from Thailand to Burma (as in Bridge over the River Kwai) and died from the harsh conditions.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:27:32 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That the Communist resistance stayed and fought (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, bumiputera

                    the Japanese, as opposed to the British who were driven out and only reoccupied Malaya after the war, gave them significant legitimacy among Malayans when they started their anticolonial insurrection late in the 1940s.

                    •  Some British stayed (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Audrid, bumiputera

                      and also fought with partisans in the jungles or smuggled themselves in behind enemy lines.

                      And as you know, there was a long war fought against the Communist Party of Malaya, who were not the party to whom independence was granted. A crucial point in the independence agreement with the Federation of Malaya was that the British troops would stay to continue the fight against the communists.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 08:32:07 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Especially when one of the leaders of said party (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack, MichaelNY

                called the Nanjing Massacre a bunch of trumped-up BS.  This leader was also (until recently) the Governor of Tokyo.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 07:25:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Ishihara (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                  he is absolutely crazy. Racist, xenophobic, homophobic (ironic since he was friends with Yukio Mishima), you name it. in the US, a right-wing nutjob governing a metropolis would be unthinkable, but alas, this is Japan. As I have mentioned before, the mayors of Nagoya and Osaka are crazies too.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 17, 2012 at 12:44:08 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  No jobless claim numbers in the Friday digest? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Are people slacking off, or has the Presidential election already happened?

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 08:07:39 AM PST

  •  AL Ballot News (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    State Auditor Samantha Shaw is term limited this year, and will retire from elected office.

    Secretary of State Beth Chapman is also term limited, but has not announced what she is going to do.

    Adam Thompson, a Republican who works as Deputy Chief of Staff in the Secretary of State's office is running for State Auditor.

    State Rep. John Merrill of Alabama may run for Secretary of State.

  •  My Democratic gerrymander of WA is up! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, itskevin, tietack, CF of Aus

    Link: http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Here's a taste:
    WADgerrymanderwholestate_zps5377c48dcropresize

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 12:39:31 PM PST

    •  I gave virually all of Lewis County to McDermott (0+ / 0-)

      and he's still in a district that would have voted over 2-1 for Obama this year.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 12:50:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  ok, someone has to say it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, tietack

    the Liberal Democratic party is the center-right party in Japan?

    What is the other main party called? No-seriously-we're-actually-the-liberals party? ;)

  •  A note on Japan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    It appears the LDP has taken a smaller percentage of the proportional vote in this year's landslide victory, than in their historic '09 loss.

    As Michael Cucek states in a article for East Asia Forum titled "Japan’s Nothing Election":

    “The Japanese electorate has been confronted with a nothing election: an election called for no reason, lacking attractive candidates or even fundamental legitimacy.”
    It's hard to disagree. Note to the once and future Prime Minister: 25% is not a mandate.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 04:19:51 PM PST

  •  Any thoughts on the Homeland season finale tonight (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Seems to have left a lot of open questions for Season 3.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 08:17:17 PM PST

  •  Senate Inouye is still in the hospital. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, SLDemocrat

    There is no time table for his release.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sun Dec 16, 2012 at 09:47:31 PM PST

  •  pres by cd Maine (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

    http://www.maine.gov/...

    has electon downloadabe files for pres and cong elections for Maine

    http://www.maine.gov/...
    has pres vote by county and township

    therea are two counties split for congrees, Kenenbeck and uocava
    kennebeck can be split using the pres by municipal, but uocava county is not so used

    http://www.maine.gov/...
    has county totals for maine
    can be used for everything but kennebeck and uocava counties

    ME01  exclusive of uocava county
    obama    221952                        59.35%
    romney   142573                        38.13%
    other        9424
     total      373949

    ME02
    obama     177283                     52.73%        
    romney    148845                     44.27%
    other         10049
    total         336177

    state total    713180
    obama         401306        56.27%
    romney       292276         40.98%
    other            19598

    a look at the congressioal race sheet gives the counties and townships in each distiict
    a look at the congressional race sheet, next to last row, will give the breakdown of congressional votes for county uocava

    total votes county uocave  3067, of which 13 are blank, for pres
    obama   2071
    romney  858
    other      125
    blank       13
    total     3067

    Me02 county uocava
    congrestsional votes
    democrat     836
    rebuclican   380
    blank       57
    total           1273

    congressional votes
    me01, county uocava
    democrt         1157
    republica n       413
    blank                 89
    total               1659

    blank votes for state 11578 for pres vote

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