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Yes, it's true.  Even with Paul Ryan today claiming that the $1.2 Trillion in Sequester Cut will happen in order to Balance the Budget in 10 years (which is 20 years faster than his own budgets would have done it) the fact is most of the "Debt Crisis" has already been resolved.  First lets go over Ryan's Lies, then we can get to the truth.

I think the sequester is going to happen,” Ryan said, referring to the $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts to the Pentagon and other government agencies that will go into effect unless Congress approves offsets. He charged that Democrats rejected the GOP’s replacement legislation — the bill cut the food-stamp program, slashed Medicaid, undermined funding for the Affordable Care Act and disaster relief — and failed to produce their own alternatives:

    RYAN: If Mitt Romney and I won the election, they would not have happened. You know why? Because we would have gone and worked with Democrats and Republicans in Congress to actually put the budget on a path to balance and would have saved defense. So where are we now? I think the sequester is going to happen because that $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, we can’t lose those spending cuts. [...] But we think these sequesters will happen because the Democrats have opposed our efforts to replace those cuts with others and they’ve offered no alternatives.

Of course Ryan is lying when he says Democrats "Offerred Nothing".  The White House offered a package of tax increases on the wealthy and spending cuts that reached the target of $1.22 Trillion in Ten Years.

However the really big fat lie is that the Fiscal Cliff deal reached between Mitch McConnell and Vice President Biden has changed the math and actually made the leap to reaching balance much more attainable than it had been.  We don't need to cut $1.2 Trillion from the deficit anymore - all we need now is 460 Billion according to the CBO.

Relative to what would have occurred if most tax and spending policies that were in effect in 2012 were continued, this legislation will reduce budget deficits in coming years.

If we added the estimated cost of the legislation and the related debt service to our previous baseline budget projections (which followed current law at the time), we would show additional deficits between 2013 and 2022 of roughly $4.6 trillion.

In our August Update, we projected that, under the laws in effect at the time (which included the sequester), budget deficits from 2013 through 2022 would total $2.3 trillion. This legislation will boost deficits over that period by an estimated $4.6 trillion (including debt service costs). CBO’s next budget projections will incorporate the effects of the legislation, as well as technical revisions and the effects of a revised economic forecast.

Also in August, CBO published projections under an alternative fiscal scenario that embodied the assumption that many policies that were in effect or had recently been in effect would be continued. (No sequester) For that scenario, we projected budget deficits over the coming decade of $10.0 trillion.  Compared with the assumptions underlying that scenario, the new legislation will produce deficits that are smaller— but only by $0.7 trillion to $0.8 trillion.

In short if the sequester had taken place along with the automatic tax reversion to Clinton Era Levels across the board - our deficit projection over the next ten years would have been $2.3 Trillion (or about 230 Billion per year).  If the previous tax base including the full Bush tax cuts had remained in place our ten year deficit projection was $10 Trillion ($1 Trillion per year), however with the deal reached to increase taxes back to Clinton Era levels for those earning more than $400,000 (which factoring for inflation is actually the same as the Clinton top bracket of $250,000) we now have a deficit projection between those two previous figures at just $4.6 Trillion over ten years or essentially $460 Billion per year.

Obama Deficits                  Bush Deficits
FY 2013*: $901 billion             FY 2009†: $1,413 billion
FY 2012: $1,089 billion             FY 2008: $459 billion
FY 2011: $1,300 billion             FY 2007: $161 billion
FY 2010: $1,293 billion
* Note: This site has not updated itself on the Fiscal Cliff deal and is showing the alternative scenario without the sequester in line with CBO's August projection.

If we were to correct 2013 with the current actual deficit number of $460 Billion you can see that we are now back to 2008 Levels which occurred before the financial meltdown.  The TARP & Detroit Bailouts have been paid back while the Wars are winding down.  We no longer need to cut $1.2 Trillion from that annual budget, we only need $460 Billion more.

Further the President, during the Cliff Negotiations, has already offered a plan that could completely bridge that gap.

The White House says the president’s plan would cut spending by $1.22 trillion over 10 years, compared with $1.2 trillion in cuts from the Republicans’ initial offer. Of that, $800 billion is cuts to programs, and $122 billion comes from adopting a new measure of inflation that slows the growth of government benefits, especially Social Security. The White House is also counting on $290 billion in savings from lower interest costs on a reduced national debt.

Of the $800 billion in straight cuts, the president said half would come from federal health care programs; $200 billion from other so-called mandatory programs, like farm price supports, not subject to Congress’s annual spending bills; $100 billion from military spending; and $100 billion from domestic programs under Congress’s annual discretion.

This proposal, which included the Chained-CPI, is more than what we would need according to CBO. In fact, the $122 Billion gained from that Chained-CPI wouldn't even be needed, while the other $800 Billion in cuts - would only need to be about half as large.

And what's more the Biden/McConnell deal will help the economy and improve GDP - which will make reaching balance even easier.

..., the legislation will probably increase GDP growth in 2013 by about 1½ to 1¾ percentage points relative to what would have happened under prior law. Because CBO’s August forecast showed GDP for 2013 declining by ½ percent under that prior law, the change in law by itself would raise that forecast to an increase of 1 percent or more.
CBO notes that a large portion of this GDP growth is a direct result of the continued extension of unemployment benefits that the GOP has been trying to cut off for two years now.

Republicans continue to try and create a false ideology fight, using the deficit battle as a proxy war to implement deep cuts into earned benefit programs for those most in need of support.   They don't care about the debt or the deficit, they never have - which is why Ryan's own previous budget proposals didn't come into balance until the year 2045! They twist reality, converting their vicious austerity plans into "opportunity", but the more you look at the actual numbers, the more you follow the facts the more it becomes clear that they are serial liars intent on nothing more than smashing huge Randian/Fuedalist FIST down on the Middle Class to the benefit of the Rich.


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Comment Preferences

  •  the real debt crisis (10+ / 0-)

    may be just beginning. because whether it's the sequester or more targeted budget cuts, such as schumer's plan for chained cpi, any form of austerity will undermine the recovery, creating more real crises for more real people. and that also would exacerbate deficits.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:29:23 PM PST

  •  I just hope Ryan runs in 2016... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CanyonWren, sebastianguy99, slothlax

    and has the GOP primary field ravage him on his bullshit.  This guy thinks he can flat out lie on everything because that's what the Romney campaign did.  Wait until fellow Repubs are calling him on his shit and he can't run to Fox News or another other GOP outlet for support - because they'll be supporting somebody else because Ryan is a false intellectual and empty suit.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:53:26 PM PST

  •  there never was a debt crisis... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flatford39, Eric Nelson, slothlax begin with. Not then. Not now. All there was, were Republicans trying to create a "debt crisis" by failing to fulfill one of the most basic of their responsibilities...raising the debt ceiling to accommodate the budgets that Congress, including these Republicans, have already passed.

    So...yes...the so-called "debt crisis" is was over before it began...because there never really was one.

    The only crisis this country faces, economically speaking, is the deliberate attempt by Republicans to hold this country hostage to their outrageous, unreasonable and irresponsible demands.

    •  Pretty much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The public sector shed jobs because the Feds didn't give the states the assistance a financial downturn requires.  Unemployment would be in a much better place and Republicans know that.  They did nothing after 2010, ostensibly to reign in out of control spending, but it was really because they know government spending does have positive effects on growth and wanted to make as many people miserable and pissed off as possible for 2012.  It almost worked, too.  If they nominated someone like Huntsman or Daniels, Obama would have been a one termer.

      Or maybe I give them too much credit, because the plan requires a candidate that can actually win an election, which seemed to be a secondary concern in the primary.  Perhaps destroying jobs in the meantime was just a side effect of being obfuscating assholes by nature.

      There is truth on all sides. The question is how much.

      by slothlax on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:35:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I realize it is a false choice but better (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flatford39, Eric Nelson, slothlax

    chained CPI than raising the Medicare age.  We don't really need either.  They can add a few more tweaks to cut health care costs, slightly over time raise the wage cap fir the payroll tax, and we don't need chained CPI.

    Obama did say recently we were close to real deficit reduction and didn't need too many more cuts.  I hope he means it and they go after tax reform rather than cutting SS and raising the Medicare age.

    The scientific uncertainty doesn't mean that climate change isn't actually happening.

    by Mimikatz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 01:13:24 PM PST

  •  This message can't be repeated often enough! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eric Nelson

    This is in keeping with that famous chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities that shows virtually the entire deficit melts away when you take away the effects of the Bush tax cuts and wars

    Bush Tax Cuts and Wars Effect on the Deficit photo bush-cbpp_zpsfb308750.jpg

    "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." ~ Mark Twain

    by wonkydonkey on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 01:31:23 PM PST

  •  Not only is Ryan lying, he incorporated Democratic (0+ / 0-)

    ..fiscal policies/achievments into his newest "10 year balancing" budget.

    Ryans new budget proves Dems solutions work..
    .. and employs them to support his latest budget – the budget he touts will balance the budget in 10 years

    Robert Greenstein @ CBPP exposes Paul Ryans  cooking the books and “obfuscation”
     • Ryans new budget includes the new revenues coming from taxes Ryan/republicans fought against (fiscal curb)
     • Ryan also uses currently diminishing deficit to bolster his “base line” projection
     • Ryan uses savings from PPACA (Obama care which he opposed) as part of his budget
     • Ryan disguises his program cuts behind vague block grants which don’t specify hurtful cuts leaving that to states
    Link to full discussion: Paul Ryan actually admits his  budget’s “new baseline” is dependent upon increased revenue: “now that the fiscal cliff is behind us…” – Ryans words

    Thx Vyan - just thought to add Robert Greenstein assessment on top

  •  When China has the Space Race won all the (0+ / 0-)

    US Military except Nuclear Weapon Based MAD will be rendered useless because of Chinese "Rods from God".  

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