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Snow covers the ground in front of the Michigan State Capitol in Lansing, Michigan, on a clear day (Winter 2004/2005)
Michigan State Capitol (Lansing, MI)
March is upon us, and spring will soon be close at hand, so PPP is starting to make a second pass around the nation, revisiting states it's already tested once before this cycle. Aside from North Carolina, the firm's home state, and Georgia, which saw a major retirement between polls, Michigan is the first state that PPP's gone back into, giving us our first real trendlines of 2013. But things haven't changed much: GOP Gov. Rick Snyder is still in very poor shape following his efforts to ram through anti-union "right-to-work" laws in December. Snyder continues to sport a miserable 37-54 job approval rating, pretty much the same as his earlier 38-56 score.

And against a trio of possible opponents, he clocks in in the thirties. December results are in parentheses:

• 37-44 vs. 2010 nominee Virg Bernero (38-49)

• 38-43 vs. Rep. Gary Peters (39-47)

• 36-40 vs. ex-Rep. Mark Schauer (39-44)

I guess Snyder can take a bit of solace in the fact that all three Democrats have seen their toplines fall, too, but as Tom Jensen notes, Bernero, Peters, and Schauer are all mostly-to-very unknown. I suspect that in December, when emotions were running highest over right-to-work, it may have been easier for some respondents to view, say, Virg Bernero as more of a "Generic D" type and press a button for "anybody but Snyder." In practice, though, little-known candidates have to work to get their names out there, something they should be readily able to do next year.

There is one genuinely positive sign for Republicans in this poll, though: On the generic legislative ballot, the GOP now trails by "only" a 48-36 margin. But that's down from an insane 56-32 spread in December. RTW obviously has faded from the headlines since then, and it was hard to ever imagine a 24-point lead sustaining itself, but Republican numbers may still recover further. So Democrats will have to work hard to rekindle the justified outrage over right-to-work as we get closer to the 2014 elections, when not only Snyder but every member of the state House and Senate will be up for reelection.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 10:26 AM PST.

Also republished by State & Local ACTION Group and Daily Kos.

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