Last month, I started what will be a monthly(and eventually bi-weekly) series on the everchanging 2014 picture. Since one of the 2013 special elections in the House looks to be competitive, I will add that race to my predictions list(The other two seem predictable: Democratic nominee Robin Kelly will become Rep. Robin Kelly and the Republican will win the Missouri 8th).
I realize that it is still very early in the 2014 cycle, and the picture could become more favorable to either party as time goes on. However, I still believe the chances of a Democratic hold in the Senate are still quite good.
The U.S Senate
Currently the Senate makeup is 55 Democratic-aligned(53 D and 2 I that caucus with the Democratic Party) and 45 Republicans. There will be 35 Senate election in 2014(33 are the normal Class II elections and 2 are special elections). So far there have been six retirements announced, 4 are Democrats(Rockefeller, Harkin, Lautenberg and Levin) and 2 Republicans(Chambliss and Johannes).
AK-Sen: Not much has changed in this race since last month. Begich heads into 2014 with good approval numbers and decent leads on all but 1 candidate who likely isn't running(Parnell). Joe Miller is very interested in running, and this is good news for Begich since Miller is unpopular with Alaskans. At this point, I am not that worried about Alaska. Cook, Nate Silver and Rothenberg all say Lean D and Sabato has this as a Tossup.
Prediction: Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold.
AR-Sen: Another month and still no poll from PPP(I'd even take a Harper poll at this moment). I really hate having no baseline. Arkansas is trending red which is worrying but the Arkansas GOP seems to be overreaching with the 12-week abortion ban so Pryor could be helped by not being a caveman like Tim Cotton or Mark Darr will ran as. My gut is telling me that this will be a Tossup. But I have no polls to back that up. Cook, Nate Silver and Sabato have this as Lean D and Rothenberg says Tossup.
Prediction: Lean Democratic (gut says Tossup/Tilt R but I will defer to Nate Silver on this for now). Democratic Hold.
CO-Sen: Not much change here either. PPP hasn't done a poll since June 2012 but the Colorado GOP is in bad shape and there isn't a clear choice for the GOP yet here. Hickenlooper is still very popular and Colorado is trending bluer. I don't see any gun safety blowback here. Cook, Nate Silver and Sabato all say Likely D and Rothenberg has this as Safe D.
Prediction: Likely Democratic. Democratic Hold.
GA-Sen: The polls don't have a clear picture of this race at all. PPP, Harper and Landmark/Rosetta Stone all found the GOP field to be wide open. PPP suggests Max Cleland would be the best path to victory here, but barring that John Barrow(who shouldn't run because we'd stupidly give up a House seat) or Jason Carter have a credible shot at winning. Jack Kingston seems to have the strongest general election polling and Broun and Gingrey have the weakest(Broun is the only declared one and Gingrey has strongly hinted that he is running). I will keep an eye on this race as it could be our best shot at a Democratic pickup. Cook, Nate Silver and Sabato have this as Likely R and Rothenber as a Safe R.
Prediction: Likely Republican. Lean R(if Broun or Gingrey). Republican Hold
HI-Sen(special). Hawaii is notoriously difficult to poll, but I don't see any problems that Schatz is likely to encounter. The Republicans even with a midterm year are not that competitive in Hawaii. Cook and Sabato have this as Likely D and Nate Silver and Rothenberg call it as a Safe D.
Prediction: Safe Democratic. Democratic Hold.
IL-Sen: Dick Durbin is running for another term and the only potential Republican so far is Joe Walsh. Joe Walsh!! PPP in a November poll had Durbin spanking Walsh 54-29. Cook, Nate Silver and Rothenberg all say Safe D and Sabato somehow says Likely D(I just don't see Quinn making to the general to pull down Durbin's totals). Joe Walsh cannot beat Dick Durbin. Period.
Prediction: Safe Democratic. Democratic Hold.
IA-Sen: The long and short of it: Bruce Braley is the Democratic frontrunner and Steve King has a relatively clear path to the GOP nomination since Latham is not running(Latham was the GOP's best shot at this seat). Braley would have a pretty good path to victory over King since PPP had him beating King 49-38 in a poll last month. At this point, I am feeling pretty good about Braley winning and it will be interesting to see if King has a bad downballot effect on the IA-03 and IA-04 races. Cook has this as a Tossup and Nate Silver, Sabato and Rothenberg have this as a Lean D.
Prediction: Likely Democratic Democratic Hold.
KY-Sen: Yertle the Turtle has a primary challenger and he can't help but keep on attacking Ashley Judd, who hasn't said if she's running yet. Yertle's got some bad numbers against Judd and the DSCC is playing coy about who they want in. My message to Alison Lundergan Grimes or Greg Fischer, if you want to run against McConnell, then frigging do it already! I don't have time for chicken Democrats that don't really want it. Judd seems like she does want it(since it is been strongly hinted that she will announce). Certainly Judd is a better candidate that Ed Marksberry(the only declared candidate so far), and Yertle could find that his attacks on Judd could backfire. Kentucky Democrats are in good position, but they need to announce and rollout NOW(and if Grimes and Fischer miss the train that gonna leave that station, I won't weep for them). Consensus has this as Likely R.
Prediction: Lean Republican. Republican hold(for now).
LA-Sen: As it was fresh news when I wrote about it last month, Mary Landrieu is in good shape for her reelection campaign. However, the PPP poll may have gotten the NRSC to try to get Lt. Gov Jay Dardenne, who polled the best against Landrieu. Dardenne is a moderate Republican, and seems more interested in the gubernatorial election in 2015. Landrieu has solid leads against the rest of her opponents, and Landrieu is very canny politican and survivor of very close races. There is a lot of potential for a messy GOP jungle primary, and Landrieu is no Blanche Lincoln. Cook has this as Lean D, while Nate Silver, Sabato and Rothenberg have it as a Tossup.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt D. Democratic hold.
ME-Sen: If Susan Collins isn't challenged from the right, then this is a ho-hum race. Democrats have to hope for Collins to retire or be ousted in a GOP primary. Given the Maine GOP, this is still very possible. A Collins retirement makes this race the very best chance of a Democratic pickup. Cook, Nate Silver and Rothenberg have it as Likely R while Sabato says Safe R.
Prediction: Safe Republican, Lean D(if Collins retires or is defeated in a primary).
MA-Sen: Markey according to polling(PPP in Febuary, Boston Herald in March) is on pace to crush Lynch in the special election primary. In the special election itself Markey gets at least 47% against the three Republican candidates(he gets 49.1% against Winslow and 47% and 47.5% against Gomez and Sullivan). He has crushing leads against all 3 with Sullivan the only one to get 30% according to the Boston Herald poll(note: I take their poll with a grain of salt). I am pretty confident that Ed Markey will be Massachusetts's next Senator and thus in position to crush any Republican opponent in 2014. Cook and Rothenberg have this as Safe D while Nate Silver and Sabato say Likely D.
Prediction: Safe Democratic. Democratic hold.
MI-Sen: Carl Levin's retirement means that the Republicans have at least a small chance at this race. So far Harper is the only one with a poll of the potential field and presumed Democratic frontrunner Gary Peters who is a fairly strong candidate matches pretty well against all Republican opponents(since the matchups are in the 20s, the leads are basically irrelevant). Justin Amash is very likely to run, Mike Rogers would be one of the GOP's strongest potential candidates but Rogers running would open up his House seat which the Democrats could possibly flip. Another potential GOP one is former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Amash getting the nomination would be very good news for Peters but I suspect that given that Synder could be a drag on everything downballot and Michigan's history of rarely electing Republicans to Senate, I'd say that Peters is in great shape. Cook and Sabato have this as a Lean D, Nate Silver says Likely D and Rothenberg says Safe D.
Prediction: Likely Democratic. Lean Democratic(with Rogers). Democratic hold.
MN-Sen: The Minnesota GOP is in terrible shape and it seems like they will double down on social issues. Among the GOP potentials are Michele Bachmann and John Kline who Franken should be able to crush. Franken polls with at least 49 in a January PPP poll so I am not worried about this state. Cook and Sabato have this as Lean, Nate Silver as Likely D and Rothenberg as Safe D.
Prediction: Likely Democratic. Democratic hold.
MT-Sen: PPP released a poll in February the week after I had posted my concerns about his poll numbers, and I am further worried that Max Baucus is in deep trouble. Baucus now have two declared opponents, State Rep Champ Edwards and former State Senator Corey Stapleton. Stapleton polls against Baucus better with Baucus only getting 45 to Stapleton's 38%(Baucus does slightly better with Edwards 47-37). Baucus's approval numbers suck and Brian Schweitzer would both wipe the floor with Baucus in a primary and Schweitzer beats Edwards handily and gets to 49% against Stapleton. The polls don't lie here: Baucus is the most endangered Democratic incumbent and Schweitzer puts this race almost out of the GOP's reach. Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg have this as Lean D and Nate Silver has it as a Tossup.
Prediction: Lean Republican(with Baucus), Lean Democratic(with Schweitzer). [Republican pickup if Baucus is the nominee, Senate makeup after 2014: 54D, 46R]
NE-Sen: Mike Johanns's retirement gives Democrats a very small window for victory in this race. Gov. Dave Heinemen would be a strong Republican candidate and it would extremely difficult for any Democrat to challenge him. Many of the same potential Democratic candidates are also mentioned for the gubernatorial race. Cook, Nate Silver and Rothenberg have this as Safe R while Sabato says Likely R.
Prediction: Likely Republican(may change back to Safe R with Heinemen). Republican hold.
NH-Sen: Not much change here. Jeanne Shaheen still in great position against Sununu or Frank Guinta. The GOP anti-choice obsession and likely meltdown over marriage equality spreading won't help them in the Granite State. Cook, Nate Silver and Rothenberg all have this as Likely D while Sabato says Lean D.
Prediction: Likely Democratic. Democratic hold.
NJ-Sen: Lautenberg's retirement came a day after I posted my first diary on the 2014 picture. Personally, Cory Booker is too pro-corporate for my tastes so he's likely to get along with Blue Dog-enabler Mendenez. A new Fairleigh Dickenson poll shows that Booker has majority support of the Democratic primary voters(he got 50%) so Pallone or Holt will likely stay in their House seats. Other polls found a strong plurality support(48% for Booker). Booker crushes two Republicans(the only ones tested in head to head) the Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 52-29 and noted Fox News personality Geraldo Rivera by 59-23 according to Quinnipiac and 52-21. Those are election winning numbers so Booker has a clear path to becoming New Jersey's next Senator. Cook, Nate Silver and Sabato say Likely D and Rothenberg says Safe D.
Prediction: Safe Democratic. Democratic Hold.
NC-Sen: Kay Hagen still has net positive approval and had good-sized leads against every Republican. There is no clear choice yet with the Republicans and so far two Some Dudes are the only Republicans declared. Hagan has over 50% against those two so if they end up the nominee, I am not going to worry about Hagen to much. Hagen's toughest opponent looks like it would be Sue Myrick. Among the three most likely to run, she is weakest against Renee Ellmers 49-36(although Hagan is trending towards higher numbers to beat her). She gets at least 50% against Berger and Tillis. Cook and Rothenberg say Lean D while Nate Silver and Sabato say Tossup.
Prediction: Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold.
OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley is in great shape. His only potential Republican opponent is Some Dude named Rick Miller and the Oregon GOP sucks. PPP last did a poll in December 2012 with Merkley keeping close leads over Gordon Smith or Greg Walden. Everyone else he crushes and gets over 50%. Nate Silver and Sabato say Likely D and Cook and Rothenberg says Safe D.
Prediction: Safe Democratic. Democratic Hold.
SC-Sen(B): Not much change here. Would be a tough seat to get, but Nikki Haley could be a drag on this race so there is still a chance. Cook calls it a Likely R and Nate Silver, Sabato and Rothenberg say Safe R.
Prediction: Likely Republican. Republican Hold.
SD-Sen: Since almost all of the Senators the DSCC didn't want to retire have wound up annoucing their retirements, I believe that Tim Johnson will be the last of the Democrats to announce his retirement. Brendan Johnson and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin are both potential Democrats who could get the nomination if there is a retirement. Both are strong on Native American issues. On the GOP side, Mike Rounds is the strongest candidate and he's in. There could be other Republicans that want to jump in because they think Rounds is too moderate or too establishment. One of those is SD-AL Congreswoman Kristi Noem who voted against VAWA. Rounds would be tough to beat but his weakness on Native American issues could help us. A messy primary would also help us and Noem would be easier to knock out. South Dakota is a consensus Tossup.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt R. Lean Republican(with Rounds as clear GOP nominee), Tilt D to Lean D(if Noem).
VA-Sen: Nothing new here. Mark Warner still in great shape and his closest Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell he'd beat 52-42. Cook and Sabato say Likely D and Nate Silver and Rothenberg say Safe D.
Prediction: Safe Democratic. Democratic Hold.
WV-Sen: Since David McKinley won't run against Shelly Moore Capito, that's one less Republican that Capito will have to worry about primarying her. Capito appears to be in great position as far as general elections go. Rahall looks like he's not running(which helps keep that House seat) and West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant could make things interesting. Cook and Rothenberg say Tossup, Sabato says Lean R and Nate Silver says Likely R.
Prediction: Lean Republican. Tossup/Tilt D(if Capito loses a primary). Republican pickup[will pencil in 2014 projection as 53D-47R now].
Now for the Consensus same seats:
Safe Democratic:
Delaware
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Safe Republican:
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina(A)
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming
Conclusions: The 2014 Senate map is still going to be a tough thing but right now Montana and West Virginia stand out as danger zones for us. South Dakota may very well join that list but the prospect of a GOP primary there(and in West Virginia) improves our odds. Unusually a Democratic primary in Montana could be our key to keeping that seat. Georgia, Kentucky and Maine remain our best opportunities although Nebraska and the South Carolina special election also hold a slight chance for us too. The GOP is looking very likely to let a winnable race for them in Iowa slip out of their hands with Steve King.
Current Senate: 53 Democrats, 2 Independents, 45 Republicans(55D, 45R)
Projected Senate after 2014: 51 Democrats, 2 Independents, 47 Republicans(53D, 47R)
GOP Pickups: MT, WV
Below the Fleur de Kos are the House races.
The U.S House of Representives
The Huffington Post tracker has the generic national House ballot at about Democrats + 2. Last month, it was around D+4, but this was largely due to a Harper poll that had R+1 and Rasmussen went from D+6 and D+5 to D+3. If you take out those and leave in credible polls, then it would be D+3 or D+2.
According to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, D+2 on the national House ballot means a Republican gain in the House of 2 seats. However, I don't see those kind of changes yet. In fact, things seem to be trending the Democrats way as Charlie Cook's only movements have been to add Republicans to Lean R since my last update. Those Republicans had previously been safer. Club for Growth is also talking about primarying some House Republicans which could put a few more seats in play that otherwise would be safe. Rothenberg in the first 2014 House picture has an equal amount of seats in play for Democrats and Republicans to total 50. Since Charlie Cook added the 2013 South Carolina 1st special election into Lean R, I will add the 2013 special elections with very brief rundowns.
IL-02(Democratic Nominee: Robin Kelly, Cook PVI: D+27). Congrats to future Rep. Kelly. Safe D.
MO-08(Democratic Nominee: Steve Hodges, Cook PVI: R+13). Unfortunately, Republican nominee Jason Smith has a nearly certain chance of victory. Safe R.
SC-01(Cook PVI: R+11). Elizabeth Colbert-Busch is the Democratic favorite to win. The GOP primary is crowded and likely headed to a runoff. Colbert-Busch would be able to get more time to let herself be known to the voters, and if Mark Sanford wins, our odds improve. Cook has this as Lean R while Sabato and Rothenberg have this as Safe R. My prediction: Lean Republican.
Projection of House after 2013: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats(234R, 201D)
The Open Seats:
Not much has changed here so I'll do a brief rundown here too.
GA-10(Paul Broun's seat, Cook PVI: R+14). This is still a very red seat, and the GOP already have a few potential ones. Safe R.
IA-01(Bruce Braley's seat, Cook PVI: D+5). There is a lot of Democratic interest in holding this seat. Pat Murphy, the former Iowa House speaker from Dubuque is the only declared Democrat so far but there are at least five or six others on the Democratic side. A Some Dude from Ceder Rapids is the only declared Republican. Cook and Sabato say Likely D and Rothenberg says Safe D. My Prediction: Likely Democratic.
WV-02(Shelley Moore Capito's seat, Cook PVI: R+8). A Republican named Larry Faircloth has announced for this seat. No Democrat has announced yet. This would be a tough get since West Virginia trends red. Interestingly enough some Republican guy from Maryland is also interested in this seat. Cook says Lean R and Rothenberg and Sabato have Likely R(Rothenberg calls it R favored). My Prediction: Likely Republican
The Leaners and the Tossups
Cook and Rothenberg have both added some to this list. Sabato hasn't changed his ratings since my last update.
AZ-01(R+3): The passage of VAWA may have helped Republicans remove a weakness, but this district which as a lot of Native American may not forget that it took Democrats to renew VAWA. This seat is also trending more Hispanic and thus bluer. Cook and Sabato have this as a Tossup while Rothenberg says Tossup/Tilt D.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt D
AZ-02(R+2): This was Gabby Giffords district, and Republican obstruction over Gun Safety like their resistance to universal background checks could help Ron Barber. SCOTUS taking a hatchet to Section 5 of the VRA could motivate Hispanics to turn out. Hopefully, voter regisration and GOTV efforts are done by Arizona Democrats. Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato all have this as a Tossup.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt D.
AZ-09(R+1). This is a swing district but with the likes of Ben Quayle potentially running for the Republicans, Sinema's chances improve. She can clearly win tough elections and I expect this seat to be bluer over time. Cook and Sabato have it as Lean D and Rothenberg as Likely D(D Favored). As I was writing this, Wendy Rogers is the first Republican that will announce. Rogers fundraising numbers sucked in 2012.
Prediction: Likely Democratic. (change from Lean D)
CA-07(R+3). Looks like there will be a Republican clown car primary to take on Ami Bera. That is good news for Bera as that likely means a Tea Party nobody or somebody who can't beat him. Cook and Rothenberg have this as Lean D while Sabato says Likely D.
Prediction: Likely Democratic. (change from Lean D)
CA-10(R+5) This area is trending Democratic where tradionally Republican counties have started going Democratic. Jeff Denham could be a tough one to unseat though. 2016 could give us a better chance although the fallout from the 2014 CA-Gov race could be bad for Denham if Donnelly is the GOP nominee. Cook and Rothenberg have this as Likely R while Sabato as Lean R.
Prediction: Lean Republican
CA-21(R+3). This district went to Obama in 2012 and one of the counties is a Hispanic majority county. The DCCC is likely trying to get a top recruit for this race. Cook and Sabato have this as Lean R while Rothenberg as Tossup/Tilt R.
Prediction: Lean Republican(have to see who runs on the Democratic side before I look at changing it to a Tossup).
CA-31(Cook PVI: D+2, DK Elections PVI courtesy of RVKU: D+5). I still hate California's primary laws, but it seems more likely to me now that Miller is going down. Pete Aguilar seems likely to run again and the DCCC will likely make sure that the Democrats don't screw up this race again. Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato all have this as a Tossup.
Prediction: Lean Democratic(may change to Likely Democratic under the right circumstances). Democratic pickup. [had it Tilt D to Lean D]
CA-36(R+3) No movement yet on this seat. The CA-Gov picture could help Ruiz defeat any Republican. Rothenberg and Sabato have this as Lean D while Cook has this as a Tossup.
Prediction: Lean Democratic (change from Tossup/Tilt D)
CA-52(D+1). Looks like Scott Peters could have an interesting Republican challenger in Carl DeMaio who lost the San Diego mayoral race. Cook has this as Lean D while Rothenberg and Sabato as Likely D(D favored).
Prediction: Lean Democratic (could be anywhere from Tilt D to Likely D depending on what happens).
CO-06(Cook PVI: R+1, DK Elections PVI courtesy of RVKU: D+1). I'm feeling good about Andrew Romanoff's chances since it seems that he has a clear path to the Democratic nomination and the DCCC looks to spend on this race and Romanoff is a stronger candidate than Miklosi. This district contains Aurora and based on where Colorado has moved on gun safety and on civil unions, Coffman is increasingly a bad fit of this district. Cook has this as Lean R while Rothenberg and Sabato have this as a Tossup.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt D. Democratic pickup. Romanoff 50 Coffman 49
FL-02(R+3). This Panhandle district which includes Tallehassee is represented by Steve Southerland, who won it in 2010. Southerland won a close one 53-47 against Al Lawson. Could be in play depending on Scott's affect on downballot races(especially in light of the Lt. Gov resigning) and the right candidate. Rothenberg has this as Lean R, Sabato as Likely R and Cook as Safe R.
Prediction: Lean Republican(I think it will come into play).
FL-18(R+1). With CPAC happening, we can all be thankful yet again that Allen West is no longer in Congress. Florida's demographics will put it out of Republican hands pretty soon, and Rick Scott could drag down the downballot races. And resistance is futile against the Patrick Murphys(a joke). Cook and Sabato say Tossup while Rothenberg says Tossup/Tilt D
Prediction: Lean Democratic
FL-26(R+4). The Republicans want this seat back badly, and there is a clown car primary likely to happen, which likely means a Manatee-riding idiot could win. I am also liking how demographics are making this district bluer. Cook says Tossup, Rothenberg says Tossup/Tilt D and Sabato says Lean D.
Prediction: Lean Democratic (change from Tossup/Tilt D)
GA-12(R+9). I have no love for John Barrow, who is an annoying Blue Dog. But keeping him here helps us more than a Senate run does. We would lose this seat if Barrow runs for the Senate. Full stop. Cook and Sabato have this as Lean D while Rothenberg has it as Tossup/Tilt D.
Prediction: Lean Democratic (will change to Likely R if Barrow runs for Senate)
IL-10(D+8). I don't know as much as I should about Illinois districts, but I think Scheider is in good shape. Cook says Lean D while Rothenbeg and Sabato call it Likely D(D Favored).
Prediction: Likely Democratic (change from Lean Democratic)
IL-12(D+2). Since my last look at 2014, I learned that this part of Southern Illinois voted Democratic but is trending redder. Enyart is a moderate and I have no doubt that any GOP opponent will be the Teanut variety so I won't lose sleep over this race. Cook says Likely D while Rothenberg and Sabato say Lean D.
Prediction: Lean Democratic
IL-13(Cook PVI: D+1, DK Elections PVI: EVEN). Note that I won't use R+0 when even is a better name. DCCC wants this one badly but David Gill likely will sink another establishment name that could win. Gill beat the Democrat that could have won this in the primary. As long as Gill keeps winning primarys, this seat will remain GOP. Cook and Sabato have this as Lean R while Rothenberg have this as Tossup/Tilt R
Prediction: Lean Republican (change from Tossup/Tilt R). [will change if Gill doesn't run or is defeated in primary to Tossup/Tilt D]
IN-02(R+9) This was barely a Republican win, but without Mourdock poisoning the downballot, this would be a tougher get even though it is Wacky Jackie as the incumbant. Consensus is that this is Lean R.
Prediction: Lean Republican
MA-06(D+7). I'll say this again: Tierney should retire or be primaried. He is the problem with this district and Obama won't save him in 2014. I hate the idea of giving up a district because the incumbent has the stink of corruption on him(yes it was his wife that went to jail but feeling is that he knew). Cook and Rothenberg have this as Lean D while Sabato has it as Likely D.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt R [will change to Likely D if Tierney retires]
MI-01(R+4). I still don't have much hope for the Upper Peninsula because you know, Stupak. However, Snyder could be a drag on downballot and if Amash runs, that will be another drag too. I hope Michigan Democrats step up their game 1000% because this will be a hard get. Cook has this as Likely R while Rothenberg has it as Tossup/Tilt R and Sabato has it as Lean R.
Prediction: Likely Republican
MI-11(R+4) Ah yes, the reindeer farmer's district. Democrats need to run a serious candidate(Taj was just a bad candidate folks). I have no idea if the reindeer farmer survives the GOP primary, but I think this one is winnable with someone like Curson. Cook has this as Lean R while Rothenberg and Sabato have it as Likely R(R Favored).
Prediction: Lean Republican
MN-06(Cook PVI: R+8, DK Elections PVI courtesy of RVKU: R+10). Jim Graves is looking to run again so my feelings about our chances have gotten slightly better. Bachmann is still a tough one to beat however the Minnesota GOP is in bad shape and maybe we'll get lucky and she'll run for Senate. Cook and Rothenberg have this as Likely R while Sabato calls it Lean R.
Prediction: Lean Republican (change from Likely Republican)
NE-02(R+6). Sadly it looks like the DCCC is ignoring this seat again. I suppose 2016 would be a better year to take on Lee Terry. Cook and Rothenberg have this as Likely R while Sabato has it as Lean R.
Prediction: Likely Republican
NV-03(Even). Looks like a decent female candidate may challenge Heck on the Democratic side so this swingy district could get a better candidate than it got in 2012 from the Democrats. This one is worth watching to see if this could mean another Democratic pickup. Cook has it as Likely R while Rothenberg and Sabato say Lean R
Prediction: Lean Republican(for now).
NH-01(Even) It's New Hampshire, and it's swingy but the Republicans are not giving up on the same crap they pulled in 2012 and so I am liking Shea-Porter's chances. Cook and Sabato have this as a Tossup while Rothenberg says Tossup/Tilt D
Prediction: Lean Democratic (change from Tossup/Tilt D)
NH-02(D+3). This is another one where the GOP stubbornness on 2012 will cost them. Kuster could beat Bill O'Brien so I am not worried about this one. Cook says Likely D while Rothenberg and Sabato say Lean D
Prediction: Lean Democratic
NY-01(Even). No real change here. GOP still acting like dicks and Club for Growth threatening GOP primaries over voting for Sandy relief won't play well here. Bishop should be fine. Cook and Sabato have this as Lean D while Rothenberg has this as Likely D(or as it called there D Favored)
Prediction: Likely Democratic (change from Lean Democratic)
NY-11(R+4). Club for Growth's Sandy temper tantrum will be remembered in Staten Island. The Blue Dog who once held this seat and a NY City Council Member are both potentials for this one. Cook has it as Likely D, Rothenberg as Lean R and Sabato as a Tossup
Prediction: Lean Republican(will need to see what Democratic field will be to change it to Tossup or keep it as Lean R)
NY-18(R+2). Again, Sandy dickishness and possibly the resistance to gun safety(although Cuomo got dinged by that slightly) could help keep Maloney here. Cook and Sabato have it as Lean D while Rothenberg has it as Likely D
Prediction: Lean Democratic
NY-19(Even) Since Eldridge is looking more likely to run and likely other factors, Cook changed this race from a Likely R to a Lean R. GOP temper tantrums and primary threats over Sandy will not help Gibson either. Cook as mentioned ranks this as Lean R as well as Sabato. Rothenberg believes it to be Tossup/Tilt R.
Prediction: Tossup/Tilt R (change from Lean R). Could turn into a possible Democratic pickup
NY-21(R+2) Gun safety could be a drag on Owens, but the recent mass shootings in Upperstate New York including the one in this district the other day could also spur support for Owens to act as well. Given how the GOP is still stuck on 2012, Owens chances are still good. Cook and Rothenberg have it as Likely D(D Favored) while Sabato has it a Tossup
Prediction: Lean Democratic
NY-23(R+3). Tom Reed will likely be a DCCC target, but the 2012 candidate won't run again so it remains to be seen if Reed will get a strong challenger. This district has potential to flip but unsure if 2014 is the year. Cook has it as Likely R while Rothenberg and Sabato have it as Lean R
Prediction: Lean Republican(change from Likely Republican)
NC-07(R+11) Mike McIntyre, annoying Blue Dog has a strange primary challenge from another Democrat(this is somewhat fishy to me). If McIntyre loses the primary, this seat becomes Republican, folks. Cook and Sabato have it as Lean D while Rothenberg has it as a Pure Tossup.
Prediction: Pure Tossup (only race so far to get this rating from me and a change from Tossup/Tilt D). Would be Likely Republican if McIntyre loses the primary.
OH-07(R+5). This Northeastern Ohio district that includes Canton is represented by Bob Gibbs who has been in Congress since 2010. Former Congressman John Boccieri has annouced that he is running for this seat which probably prompted Cook to make this a Lean R. Since Boccieri voted for Obamacare, I think the growing popularity of it could vindicate him. Cook as mentioned has this as Lean R while Rothenberg and Sabato call it Likely R.
Prediction: Lean Republican
OH-14(R+3). Not much change here. This is a winnable race since it has a freshman Republican incumbent. I have no idea if Wager is a strong candidate or not. Cook and Sabato have it as a Lean R while Rothenberg says it's Tossup/Tilt R
Prediction: Lean Republican
PA-08(D+1). Not much change here but Rothenberg had this on his Democratic Recruiting Failures of 2012. Fitzpatrick looks like a tough one to unlodge unfortunately. Cook and Rothenberg have this as Likely R(R favored) and Sabato as Lean R.
Prediction: Lean Republican
TX-23(R+5). The VRA Section 5 uncertainity in SCOTUS and how Texas wants to redistrict could make Gallego safer or less safe. This district is trending more Hispanic and more Democratic. The GOP seems to be recruiting a challenger though. Cook and Sabato have it as Lean D while Rothenberg says Tossup/Tilt D
Prediction: Lean Democratic(could change depends on circumstances)
UT-04(R+14). Jim Matheson keeps on truckin' as a Blue Dog. I expect that he'll keep hanging on. Cook and Sabato says Lean D while Rothenberg has it as a Tossup
Prediction: Lean Democratic
WV-03(R+6). Since it looks like Rehall isn't running for Senate, he looks good to keep this seat since pro-coal Democrat still win there. Rothenberg and Sabato have it as a Lean D while Cook says Likely D
Prediction: Likely Democratic (change from Lean Democratic)
Conclusions: The GOP seems stuck in 2012 election mode. Whether we get the turnout that we got in 2012 or something at least close to it remains to be seen. I believe we'll get higher turnout than 2010. The three Democratic seat most in danger right now in my mind are GA-12(if Barrow runs for Senate), MA-06(if Tierney doesn't retire) and NC-07(due to McIntyre being primaried). Club for Growth or the Tea Party could open up AR-01, IL-16, IN-08(Richard Mourdock is interested in running?!) and VA-02 if the Republicans there get primary challengers so watch this space for those seats. Right now, Gary Miller and Mike Coffman should be sweating bullets. 2014 is shaping up to be like 1998 in the House.
Projected House going into the 2014 Elections: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats
Projected House after the 2014 Elections: 232 Republicans, 203 Democrats
Net change: +2 Dem(CA-31[Miller], C0-06[Coffman])
Let me know the Dk Elections PVIs that you want to me add(since I am not going to pour over those Google Docs) and please feel free to add your own predictions as far as the net change in the House.
And next week, I'll do my update of the Governor races(Corbett is looking even more toast than last month)