Conservatives seem to be slowly and quietly sneaking into the marriage equality camp. From Senator Portman to (gasp) Karl Rove and even to Justice Roberts and his gay cousin, who will be in his private family box Tuesday, we are seeing a shift in Conservative opinion on gay marriage. It is becoming like, you know, liberty. There is even a glimmer of hope from the Mormon Church.
The Mormon Church has launched a website that says, among another things, homosexuality is not a choice. Conservative Senator Rob Portman outed his own views that gays should have the right to marry after talking with his gay son. The gay first cousin of Chief Justice John Roberts will join the rest of the Justice’s family in his family seating box while he hears testimony on two cases before the court on gay marriage.
Outside of the court, interest groups for both sides of the question of marriage equality demonstrate, but inside – and in the country as a whole – there is a major shift going on: conservatives are abandoning their objections to marriage equality. The American political landscape is quickly shifting, as conservatives, Republicans businesses and even some church leaders now see that gay rights are civil rights and marriage equality is what the founding fathers would have wanted.
I and others have assumed that the court Court will split on ideological lines with conservatives voting against marriage equality and benefits for gays, and liberals voting for them with Justice Anthony Kennedy the swing vote that could go either way.
I don’t think so anymore. The rapid change in public opinion, the support from Republicans like Rob Portman and even tepidly by Karl Rove, the support by big time Republican corporate funders like Goldman Sachs argue that there may be more support n the Court than the usual 4/4/1 vote pattern. This is bolstered by the release last week of a poll by Reuters/Ipsos showing that 63% of Americans favored gay marriage – including many self-identified conservatives.
Marriage equality leaders like Rick Jacobs and Chad Griffith have cast the marriage equality issue in terms of liberty– getting the government out of the lives of gays and letting them marry whomever they want. This is a classic conservative theme and it appears to be working. Rick and Chad and other marriage equality advocates have out-organized and out fund raised the anti-gay groups and will continue to do so. Possibly more important politically are the corporate lobbyists and billionaires telling Republicans that marriage equality is good for business so get out of the way if you want to continue to get our money. Other conservatives supporting marriage equality include former Republican Party Chair Ken Mehlman, who is gay, Ted Olson, President Bush’s Solicitor General who is arguing the case before the Court, and Margaret Hoover, a Republican Activist who is also pro-marriage equality and a great name.
This doesn’t mean the case is a slam dunk. We can count on Justices Alito and Thomas to vote against marriage equality, and possibly even Bryer on a state’s rights position. Focus on the Family and other human rights organizations have launched a publicity campaign to push their one-man/one woman line, (even though in the Bible it is usually one man and many women), and some state senators and representatives who voted for marriage equality have lost their elections in the past.
In life and politics and even in Constitutional rights, there are no guarantees. But watching a former enemy quietly slide over to your side is a very, very good sign for the decision and its aftermath.
Who knows, maybe next conservatives will understand that female reproductive rights are also part of liberty.