Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

NH-Sen: This sounds like something that was supposed to come out on April Fool's Day but got stuck in the pipeline. Scott Brown, the former half-term Republican senator from Massachusetts, is floating his name for a new Senate race... in New Hampshire. It's not entirely clear whether he brought up the idea himself, or if someone else prompted the question after he stated at a New Hampshire appearance on Thursday that he was "likely not done with politics," but in either case, he said he's "not going to rule out anything right now."

My assumption based on his most recent moves—such as filling in for Bill O'Reilly on Fox News the other day—was that he wasn't going to run for anything in 2014, including the most obvious choice of MA-Gov (the one slot where Bay Staters have shown some willingness to vote Republican).

But Brown may well truly want to find a way back into the Senate, whatever the method. With that in mind, New Hampshire does have a 2014 race for a Dem-held seat; the swingy Granite State is more receptive to moderate Republicanism than Massachusetts; and most of New Hampshire shares a media market with Boston, so name rec shouldn't be a problem. (In fact, a good number of people who work in Boston and would actually like to vote for Brown probably already live one state to the north: ex-Massholes who have fled the state for the lure of lower taxes.) However, that would put him on a collision course with Jeanne Shaheen, who's no pushover. She's one of New Hampshire's most popular politicians and is favored for re-election—though a Brown candidacy would certainly scramble the calculus.

So the next logical question is: "If the stars align in such a bizarre way to elect Scott Brown again, would that make him the first-ever senator to represent two different states?" The answer, in fact, is no, not by a long shot. Several senators have already done that—perhaps most famously Daniel Webster, who represented the exact same two states in question (though he served New Hampshire in the House). Indeed, one senator, James Shields, represented three different states (Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri) in the Senate between 1849 and 1879. But this practice has become increasingly rare (in the House, for instance, it was only accomplished three times in the 20th century), so Brown would find himself in extremely unusual territory if he went ahead with such a move.

Senate:

IA-Sen: With each passing week, it seems like Republican Rep. Steve King's feet get a little colder regarding the open Iowa Senate seat, which would at least potentially be winnable for a skilled moderate Republican but would be a kamikaze mission for a nutter like him. King even acknowledged his own difficulties in recent comments on Iowa public TV, saying it would be a "slightly uphill battle" for him since Iowa's "turned a little to the left." He added that "I need to get a decision made pretty quickly" out of respect for other potential GOP candidates Kim Reynolds and Bill Northey. Cumulatively, those quotes don't make him sound very candidate-ish.

MA-Sen: This may be too little too late for Stephen Lynch, who staked out the right flank in the Democratic primary for the Massachusetts Senate special election and is now finding out that there just aren't enough votes there for a path to victory. Lynch is now toying with flip-flopping on his support for the Keystone XL pipeline, which is one of the key differences he has with Ed Markey and also one of the main reasons why major enviro groups are backing Markey instead. Maybe most significantly, environmental issues are what's driven billionaire Tom Steyer to spend over $200,000 so far on defeating Lynch.

At this point, Lynch has only opened the door to dropping support for the pipeline and hasn't formally reversed course, but even if he did, the special primary is coming up soon (April 30), and his die is already cast as the less-eco-friendly candidate. It also might diminish enthusiasm for him from the hard-hat unions, many of which support the pipeline construction from a jobs-and-infrastructure angle. It's really a no-win situation for Lynch... but then, it's been one ever since he inexplicably got in the race in the first place.

MI-Sen: Debbie Dingell is reportedly taking "concrete steps" toward a Senate run to replace the retiring Carl Levin, according to Politico. While Dingell—the wife of Rep. John Dingell, who hasn't held political office but is a Dem insider in her own right and a former General Motors exec—says that she's still "genuinely undecided," she is doing her due diligence. That means putting together a consulting team featuring a couple of big names and meeting with labor groups and EMILY's List (the latter of whom would probably be key to her winning a primary against Rep. Gary Peters). (Also, check out the picture of her at the link... she also seems to be working on her Carl Levin-style look, at least in terms of her eyeglasses and facial expression.)

NJ-Sen: Don't start coronating Cory Booker for the open New Jersey Senate seat just yet: Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone just popped up again to remind us that he's "very interested" in the race. We haven't heard much from Pallone since his name first got floated in the wake of Frank Lautenberg's retirement, but this is probably his strongest statement of interest so far, saying he's "pursuing that and working on it on a daily basis." Booker's star power will be difficult to overcome, but it seems like Pallone's gauging whether there's enough space on Booker's left to carve out a viable path to the nomination.

Gubernatorial:

IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn doesn't seem to grok that his approvals have him down in dead-candidate-walking territory, such that he might actually be at risk of losing to a Republican in this blue state (not that it really matters since he'd probably be just a speed bump for AG Lisa Madigan in a Democratic primary). Yet Quinn's actions indicate that he's still fully intending to run for re-election, since he's going full speed ahead on the fundraising front. After ending 2012 with only about $1 million in campaign funds, he raised $550,000 in the first quarter of the year, with much of that coming from organized labor.

House:

CA-20: Nothing says pure excitement more than "Leon Panetta." But now that he seems to have retired for good after holding every single possible job in the Beltway at various points, it's time for... another Panetta. Leon's son James, a Monterey County assistant DA and a former Naval Intelligence officer, is floating his name for the House seat held long ago by his dad, once Sam Farr (who took over in 1993 after Panetta left to head OMB) retires. One slight catch: Farr hasn't expressed any interest in actually, you know, retiring, though he is 71 years old.

Other Races:

Charlotte Mayor: When I saw "Foxx" and "North Carolina" in one place, my first instinct was that Virginia Foxx was retiring! Unfortunately, we aren't so lucky. Instead, Anthony Foxx, the up-and-coming mayor of Charlotte, announced that he won't be running for re-election this year. Foxx, who is African-American and 41 years old, was first elected in 2009. He's gotten mostly good notices as mayor, so it's not a question of being endangered. Rather, recent scuttlebutt has him on the short list to become Transportation secretary in Barack Obama's second term, so an announcement on that may be forthcoming soon.

Possible Democratic candidates here include Jennifer Roberts, the Mecklenburg County Commissioner who acquitted herself well in the open seat NC-09 race last year; City Councilor and Mayor-pro-tem Patrick Cannon; City Councilor David Howard; and state Sen. Dan Clodfelter. On the Republican side, ex-City Councilor and 2009 loser John Lassiter may try again, and City Councilor Edwin Peacock could also run.

Grab Bag:

House: Maybe it was last week's Quinnipiac poll (which had a generic ballot of D+8) that suddenly got everyone to realize that polls are showing the Democrats hovering around the point where, if the numbers hold up, they might retake control of the House in 2014. (Rasmussen, weirdly, has been putting up those kinds of numbers routinely for months now, though I certainly won't fault you for not wanting to hang your hat entirely on Scotty's predictions.)

Think Progress's Ian Millhiser concludes, based on 2012 margins in individual House races, that Democrats would win a five-seat majority if this D+8 margin held, while other pundits have looked instead at Alan Abramowitz's model, which would require an ungodly D+13 on the generic ballot to flip the House.

The New Republic's Nate Cohn came out with a characteristically judicious piece on Friday, skeptical of whether the outlier-ish Quinnipiac poll of registered voters is that reliable, but also supposing that it would take significantly less than D+8 to flip the House. That's based on the role of open seats but also more generally on the lack of a uniform swing (as seen in the general trend that seats on the cusp mostly tend to fall in the same direction amidst a wave year).

However, as a final splash of cold water, there's also the wee matter, of course, of whether the Dems can actually sustain a D+8 for the next year and a half. Kyle Kondik points out that at this point in 2009, the generic ballot was running at D+4! (And we know how that movie turned out.)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  They may like Brown's politics (11+ / 0-)

    in New Hampshire, but he's got to be at a disadvantage as being from Massachusetts and having been born in Maine.

    About those New Hampshire taxes: what they lack in sales and income tax, New Hampshire more than makes up for in property taxes.

    What is truth? -- Pontius Pilate

    by commonmass on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:07:03 AM PDT

    •  As anyone who bought a waterfront McMansion (6+ / 0-)

      in Florida will tell you, all the shiny "no income taxes" don't mean shit when you can't afford to stay in your house.

    •  Was just looking at (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      viral, commonmass

      some NH paper on-line comments about another matter*, and downtown Scotty is being mocked to a fair-thee-well.  

      Excepting of course, some died in the wool NH conservatives.  

      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
      *A tanker was not well tied up at a Portsmouth pier on the Piscataqua River, and drifted out with the tide, banging into the Mildred Long Bridge which was under construction/renewal.  Repair est for the damage to the bridge starts at $2.5 million.  No word on visible damage est for the Portuguese tanker.  

      Somebody won't make that mistake on his next job ---  if he gets a next job.    

    •  Double the taxes on a home worth 50% less (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      viral, fenway49, Odysseus, commonmass

      I live on the North Shore of Mass. Why? My wife and I originally  looked in NH and came to the conclusion that the no income tax status would cause us to pay more in taxes.

      Ten years ago, homes that were around $300K had property taxes in excess of $10K. The home we bought in Mass. for $450K had taxes around $5K.

      •  Only place to get revenue (5+ / 0-)

        if you have no income or sales tax in NH, but want a functioning school system and local government, as most border towns do. Propaganda to the contrary, the basic rule that public services have to be paid for continues to apply, even within the sainted boundaries of New Hampshire.

        About 2 years ago I was stuck with a guy from Wakefield at a party. He kept telling me how Obama was a socialist and he was moving to NH to get away from taxes in Mass. I asked if he was planning to give up his job two blocks from North Station as part of this plan. "No," he says, "I have a great job in Boston. Why would I do that?"

        Because, dumbass, if you continue to work in Mass. you'll pay Mass. income tax ANYWAY, plus double the property tax, and you'll triple your commute. But otherwise, good plan.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:17:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  One Way or Another You Pay Taxes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, commonmass

        In CA we  have just about the lowest property taxes in the US with most homeowners paying just 1% on the purchase price, plus a tiny raise each year if the house appreciates. We also have among the highest sales and personal income taxes in the nation. Ideally there should be balance, because as it is low incomes are way over paying in sales and income taxes while the rich and businesses shield their valuable property from taxes.

      •  That is exactly why my dad lives (0+ / 0-)

        in the Amesbury area, and not across the border in NH. Same story as yours: they looked in NH and were appalled at the property taxes compared to a couple of miles away in Massachusetts.

        What is truth? -- Pontius Pilate

        by commonmass on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 04:38:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe when that fails, he'll run in Aruba (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass

      where he owns a timeshare.

      But seriously, the "truck drivin' everyman" owns two houses and 4 condo units (not counting his timeshare unit).  His NH "vacation home" is currently valued at $512K, FWIW.

      Water which is too pure has no fish -- Ts'ai Ken T'an

      by mik on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:09:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Margaret Thatcher passed away this morning (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aggou, Adam B, thomask

    Apparently she had a terrible stroke. My thoughts are with her family.

    •  My thoughts are (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thomask, Gygaxian

      with my family, who are still caring for a son her thugs paralyzed in Belfast in 1981.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:18:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dude's already got the pension and (5+ / 0-)

    lifetime health care. Why's he so hot to get back in the Senate?

    Kings and queens not taking his calls these days?

    Republicans represent both sides: the insanely rich and vice versa.

    by Crashing Vor on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:16:42 AM PDT

  •  Kevin Strouse Not Ready. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Gygaxian

    OK...so we learned last week Kevin Strouse is a candidate for PA-08. And today we learn he is still doing research to form opinions on the issues.

    First of all if he was not ready to formulate opinions in the issues, maybe he could have waited 6 months before announcing his candidacy and giving an embarrassing interview to the Washington Post. Of course WaPo is in love with the centrist gobbledygook; apparently Democrats' new branding strategy is "polite problem-solvers" (gag!), so this is all framed as a positive for Strouse.

    As I have said repeatedly here, moderates are fine and centrists are shysters. It is legitimate for congresscritters to genuinely hold moderate beliefs (moderates),  but it is not OK for congresscritters to compromise for the sake of compromising whatever the policy consequences (centrists).

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:19:05 AM PDT

  •  Poor Steve King. Perhaps Iowa will show (0+ / 0-)

    some real introspection and reverse its tendencies to embrace those who keep embarrassing them, like that brief Iowa fling with Michelle Bachmann, King's chief competitor for the title of Midwest Maniac and Bell Curve Bender.

    Building a better America with activism, cooperation, ingenuity and snacks.

    by judyms9 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:25:00 AM PDT

  •  Brown would have trouble winning the primary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PinHole, viral, JBraden

    NH republicans are some far right crazies but luckily independents and democrats offset them. If it's a closed primary he would never win the nomination and Shaheen would pulverize him in a general.
    Warren was an unproven politician and Shaheen is a veteran who would probably embarrass Brown in a general.I doubt this will ever happen.

    •  about my state's primaries (0+ / 0-)

      My home state of New Hampshire has a semi-open primary: independents (whom we Granite Staters call "Undeclareds") can vote in either primary.  An undeclared has the right to join one party or the other for at least the few minutes it takes to fill out the ballot. Sometimes they forget to change back to Undeclared (which they can do after they hand in their ballots) and end up being stuck for two years in a party they only wanted to join for those few minutes.  In 2014, we will probably have more accidental Republicans than accidental Democrats, thanks to the 2012 Presidential Primary (although the Democratic state primary did feature a lively governor's race.)

      NH is famous for the First in the Nation Presidential Primary, but it has one of the latest state primaries.  Unless the legislature changes the election laws (unlikely though not inconceivable) the primary date is the second Tuesday of each even-numbered year, i.e. September 9, 2014.  This makes for a rather short general election campaign: usually eight weeks (and every 14th year we have a 7-week general election campaign.)

      •  IL has no party registration. (0+ / 0-)

        You are allowed to request any party ballot when you show up to vote.  Which ballot you choose gets recorded as your "party".

        Effectively, it's an open primary, and concervatives can most definitely crash liberal campaigns.

        -7.75 -4.67

        "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

        There are no Christians in foxholes.

        by Odysseus on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:00:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  34 (or more) races (0+ / 0-)

          There are 33 regular Senate elections next year plus at least one special election: Scott Brown could theoretically enter all 34 races.  He can only hold one seat at a time, but all he has to do is pick one state as his domicile in November 2014 once he he sees which states (if any) have elected him.

  •  Flipping the House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    will be no small task. But how would it affect the political calculus if the GOP was reduced to a very slim majority? Say the hold the House by just 3 or 4 seats. Would the GOP dig in deeper and fight even harder or would it give the few remaining "moderate" Republicans a reason to start acting rationally? Either way, I think Boehner loses the speakership after 2014, either to a Democrat (who will not be Nancy Pelosi, IMO) or a more conservative Republican.

    •  Not as difficult as it seems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bruorton, viral

      unless Obama fucks up their chances with a real push to cut Social Security and Medicare.  Right now he's not doing them any favors.  

      As it is, Obama has effectively taken Ryan's Couponcare off the table because the GOP can counter with the Dems are cutting Medicare while they want to 'reform' it.  I just don't get his strategy unless it really is to fuck the middle class over in favor of the wealthy.  He doesn't have to kowtow to the 1% any longer yet here he is pushing their policies.  He really is the dumbest mother fucking smart person out there (apologies to Will Smith).  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 05:55:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why not Pelosi? (0+ / 0-)

      I'm really curious how you do the math such that a Democratic recapture of the House in 2014 would somehow prompt the caucus to shove Pelosi aside after she's led them back from the wilderness.  Why?  And for who, Hoyer?  Noodles above, I hope not.

      •  It's not so much a shoving aside (0+ / 0-)

        As a realization that pretty much the same Democratic leadership has been in place for 10 years.

        •  I think she would serve 1 term and THEN retire (0+ / 0-)

          She would then be Hillary's chief of staff :)

          -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

          by dopper0189 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:20:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  12 come 2015, but who's counting? (0+ / 0-)

          She's been the Democratic leader for a while, sure, but she doesn't lack for energy, hasn't made any big mistakes, and I don't see any agitation in the caucus that her time is up.  Right now, it seems like the job is hers until she decides.

          But if she didn't step aside after this last election, let alone after 2010, is she really likely to do so just when she'd have the chance to be Speaker again?  (...and with a Democratic Senate and President! I'm pretty sure she would like to finally get a climate bill signed, for instance.)

          I completely agree with you about Boehner, though; this is the end of the line for him.  Speaker or no, if they lose seats in 2014 he will not be keeping the wolves out any longer.  Maybe if they gained seats (avert), but I'd be doubtful even then.  

    •  To really take back the House we need the National (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kleinburger, Bruorton, JBraden

      Democrats or a few rich liberals to push the same anti-gerrymandering initiatives that California, Arizona, and Florida have in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Without that I don't know if we can do anything other than a 6-8 seat pickup in 2014.

      I'll take that 6-8 seat pick up, it just isn't enough to win back the House. But I think Hillary has a shot at creating a wave election in 2016.

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

      by dopper0189 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:23:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Carpetbagger (0+ / 0-)

    The guy lives in Massachusetts and now because he lost there he wants to move to another state and run, fear the thought should a democrat ever move to a state where they have never lived to run for an office,  the right wing controlled media would never stop talking about it.  Lets turn up the heat and out this guy

    •  Hillary and RFK did it successfully (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      and both served honorably in the US Senate. Let the media rant all they want -- but they won't, because the Manchester Union Leader would be just delighted to have a Republican defeat Jeanne Shaheen. They'd support a more reliably right-winger in the primary (assuming there is one), but they'd go all-out for Brown in the general.

  •  Charlie Pierce (8+ / 0-)

    consummate MA reporter has the "final word" on Brown's candidacy in NH vs Jeanne Shaheen:

    Scott, baby, she's enormously popular and used to be governor up there, and she started out organizing the state politically 40 years ago. You're a one-term loser who got elected in a fluke and then lost to a woman who never had run for anything before because you ran the worst campaign in the history of man. You took a pass on both the Massachusetts Senate and gubernatorial races, and now you're going to carpetbag your way north to take on a woman who's been wiring that state politically since she ran McGovern's operation from her kitchen table in 1972?
    http://www.esquire.com/...

    Thirteen men can't tell The People what is Constitutional and what isn't

    Conservative "constitutional scholar" referring to SCOTUS

    by jam on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:21:52 AM PDT

    •  Nicely succinct summation (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, jam

      though he's obviously exaggerating in calling Brown's 2012 run "the worst campaign in the history of man".  I don't know who has that title, but it seems that Martha Coakley after winning the special election primary comes closer than Brown's effort.  With a better Coakley campaign, we probably wouldn't even be talking about Brown now.

      And nice that Pierce pointed out that Brown got the NH idea in his head after attending a dinner honoring Martin Luther King, Jr.  I'm sure we all agree with Pierce that "when I think of Dr. King's legacy, the first person I think of is Scott Brown."  ROTFLOL.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 10:00:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Huh. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jam

      Didn't know that about Shaheen, the early stuff in her career and running McGovern's campaign.

  •  Thatcher's death upsets me as much as Reagan's, (5+ / 0-)

    Atwater's, and Generalissimo Franco's.

  •  Nude centerfold ex senator turns carpetbagger (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    viral, The Caped Composer

    It is true that NH has many former Mass. residents. However, Snottie Brown will be making a serious miscalculation that he is electable in the Granite State. For one thing, the guano crazy Ron Paul wing of the GOP is strong in NH (see NH GOP lawmakers attempt to base laws on the Magna Carta). People in NH don't like pathological liars either witnessed by Brown claiming he was born at the Portsmouth Naval Yard, which BTW is technically in Maine and not NH. Really? Your mother was some kind of worker at the PNY and you were born on its premises. Yeah right. It's not like Snottie hasn't told whoppers like this before like when he said in a debate with Elizabeth Warren that he had been defending women since he was six years old.

  •  Brown would be an ideal candidate... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer

    ...for Democrats, that is. After all...the ad practically writes itself for hte Democratic nomineed:

    Former partial-term Senator who was fired by his constituents after just a couple of years in office...wants New Hampshire voters to hire him.

  •  one word (0+ / 0-)

    carpetbagger!

  •  Just for curiosity's sake (0+ / 0-)

    why exactly is Governor Quinn so unpopular?

    "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

    by Australian2 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:43:42 AM PDT

    •  Many different reasons. (0+ / 0-)

      The biggest single issue is the budget, and that feeds multiple side issues.

      Quinn championed doubling the corporate tax rate to 7% and increasing the Illinois personal income tax rate from 3% to 5% to balance the budget.  That passed the legislature.  Guess whether the budget is balanced?  People are rightly pissed off that a big promise was not delivered.

      That leads into the second biggest issue - his fight with AFSCME over the state worker contract.  IMHO, AFSCME is not covered in glory here either - they struck for and got guaranteed 4% raises in 2008 - a year when people were pretty raw over losing jobs left and right.  This fed a "unions suck" mentality.  Quinn by any standard has deeply fucked up the renegotiation.  Remember how the budget wasn't balanced?

      The state pension plan has been explicitly underfunded by all governors for decades.  The fact that this policy is bipartisan and longstanding does not stop it from crushing the current occupant of the seat.  Illinois is short 97B from what they should have.  Notice how the SEC also called them out for misleading bond incvestors.

      So the short answer is that on the one thing that he HAD to do - balance the budget, he deeply fucked it up, and that shit is splashing everywhere.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:19:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It would set up Brown to run for President. (0+ / 0-)
  •  newsworthy? (0+ / 0-)

    So many articles on Scott Brown...he replied to a question about running in NH saying that "he would not rule it out". Is that really worthy of front page articles in Boston Globe, NY Times, Washington Post, and Daily Kos?
    Seems like kind of small potatoes to me.

    Obama 2012...going to win it with our support!!!

    by mattinjersey on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 06:58:06 AM PDT

    •  It's definitely worth the ink . . . (0+ / 0-)

      . . . because it gets our side motivated and willing to donate our money and time, which could either scare him out of running or, should he end up the nominee, vanquish him more easily. We've learned from the Coakley debacle, so any rumblings of a Brown candidacy have a galvanizing effect on the left, to make sure it never happens again!

      30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

      by The Caped Composer on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 09:03:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If Brown moves to NH and wins I may move to Mass (0+ / 0-)

    don't know if I could live here and listen to that clown for 6 years.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:16:36 AM PDT

  •  Remember when the Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    were outraged at that carpetbagger, Hillary Clinton, moving to a different state than the one she was from to run for office, because that different state is more receptive to her party than the one she was from?

    Seems like a good time to remind them of that.  

    "Optimism is better than despair." --Jack Layton, the late Canadian MP, liberal, and Christian.

    by lungfish on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 07:34:02 AM PDT

  •  I don't think it's unprecedented (0+ / 0-)

    State political machines tend to follow state lines, which is why this doesn't happen more frequently.  With big money politics, my guess is that this will start to become more common, especially in places like New England, which is becoming close to one big media market.

    •  I beg to differ. (0+ / 0-)

      New England is small geographically, but media markets be damned.  If you're from down-country, you don't just get a free pass because we follow the baseball team from your hometown.

      Trust me, this trial balloon has already landed.

  •  I don't know why... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer

    People speculated about Scott Brown for governor. They actually have to work and govern. It is obvious that Scott Brown wants to be John McCain type. Do some interviews with Fox Morning, grab breakfast with a king or queen, and then spend the afternoon calling in to Boston Sports radio.

    The Republican Party: The Bridge to Nowhere

    by flounder on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 08:31:19 AM PDT

    •  Because Massachusetts is MUCH more receptive (0+ / 0-)

      to a Republican Governor than a Republican Senator. Between 1991 and 2007, literally every Governor of Massachusetts was a Republican. Before Brown's victory in 2010, the last time a Republican won a Senate election in MA was Ed Brooke in 1972.

      There is a theory that many in MA like the idea of a Republican Governor to balance out the heavily Democratic legislature. Scott Brown being a supposed "moderate" would fit that perfectly.

      That's why he has been speculated for Governor.

      •  Problem with that theory (0+ / 0-)
        There is a theory that many in MA like the idea of a Republican Governor to balance out the heavily Democratic legislature.
        is that our nominally heavily Democratic legislature is close to useless for progressive purposes.

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 01:11:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not questioning that, (0+ / 0-)

        But it is pretty obvious that Scott Brown isn't really a nose to the grindstone governor type. He's more celebrity Senator. I think he knows that.
        Was this all just a case of, "hey the governorship will be open; Scott Brown isn't doing anything, I bet he'll run"?
        Pretty lazy speculation there that can really be made only by someone who hasn't watched Brown in action.
        Given the choice of running a state or being a Fox celebrity and part-time celebrity lawyer, my analysis always said Brown would take the easy way out.

        The Republican Party: The Bridge to Nowhere

        by flounder on Mon Apr 08, 2013 at 03:37:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Scott Brown's career is OVER (0+ / 0-)

    I've mentioned this MANY times already.  Brown really screwed up when he was attacking Elizabeth Warren for her Native-American heritage.  And he hasn't apologized since.

    This evidence is going to dog Brown no matter what office he runs for so long as he doesn't apologize.

  •  regarding Brown... (0+ / 0-)

    ...has there ever been a U.S. Senator who lost reelection in one state and later was elected to the Senate from another?

    To the best of my knowledge that has not occurred. Not that it matters, per se.

    However, as a New Yorker who supported Hillary Clinton's run for Senate, despite charges against her of being a "carpetbagger," it seems to me that Brown has a lot more to overcome than just being called a "carpetbagger."
    He would also have to overcome the additional baggage that he was a carpetbagger who was fired from office by his own constituents.

    In fact, the ad makes itself (for the Democratic candidate):
    Why would New Hampshire want to send someone to the U.S. Senate who was fired from his job as Senator by his previous constituents? Maybe he thinks our standards are lower here?

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site