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Take the most recent poll about same-sex marriage in each state that I know of (some are as far back as 2011). If the percentage in favor of marriage equality is four or more percentage points higher than those opposed, score an emphatic YES! If the percentage against is at least four percentage points more than those in favor, score an emphatic NO! Otherwise we'll tally up an ambiguous MAYBE!

Here's the results. The bolded entries are for those states which have legalized same-sex marriage.

  YES! MAYBE!    NO!
AZ 55-35 FL 43-45 AK 43-51
CA 61-32 IA 46-43 GA 27-65
CO 51-42 NM 45-43 KS 42-55
CT 55-33 TX 48-48 KY 27-65
DE 54-37 WI 44-46 LA 29-59
HI 55-37 IN 45-45 MS 13-78
IL 47-42 MO 36-52
DC 56-35 MT 43-49
ME 53-43 NC 34-58
MD 55-39 SC 21-69
MA 62-30 TN 28-62
MI 57-38 UT 30-63
MN 49-45 WV 19-71
NV 47-42 NE 36-54
NH 56-34
NJ 62-30
NY 55-37
OH 48-44
OR 49-42
PA 54-41
RI 60-26
VT 58-33
VA 56-33
WA 60-33
No polling: AL, AR, ID, ND, OK, SD, WY. (I would expect all of these states to be strongly against legalizing same-sex marriage, and they are so tallied below).

The results: In twenty four states the latest polling shows same-sex marriage in the winner's circle, compared to twenty states shown or assumed to be in opposition. Six states straddle the question.

Tied for the highest support are two states, Massachusetts (no surprise there) and New Jersey (a state which obviously should have marriage equality, but doesn't because of stubborness on the part of all concerned), at 62% support.

The state with the lowest support is Mississippi, with 13%, but that poll was taken in 2011; we can assume some increase in support over two years - yes, even in Mississippi. We're probably looking at the high teens today. The West Virginia and South Carolina polling was also done in 2011 so I think it's fair to assume that Mississippi still holds the title, at least among states that have actually been polled.

The states with the oddest results are Arizona and Virginia, showing much stronger support than one might expect; both of these polls might well be outliers. They probably are more realistically put in the middle column. That still gives marriage equality a lead in states 22-6-20.

Maggie and Brian are having a sad.


Warning! Don't try to publish a scientific paper with these results!  They're a totally random sampling (the most recent poll in a state, not an average) and some polls from two years ago were used because that's indeed the latest in that state.  I just thought it might be amusing to lay out the data I have this way.

Originally posted to jpmassar on Mon May 27, 2013 at 08:12 PM PDT.

Also republished by Kossacks for Marriage Equality, Progressive Policy Zone, Milk Men And Women, and Angry Gays.

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