Mitch McConnell: Still unpopular, but now less unpopular
A new PPP poll (PDF) of the Kentucky Senate race, conducted on behalf of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, shows Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, the woman that Democrats are most eager to see take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, moving into a tie with the incumbent.
April trendlines are in parentheses:
Grimes (D): 45 (41)
McConnell (R): 45 (45)
Undecided: 10 (14)
But the difficulty for Democrats, as ever, remains getting over that hump to 50 percent. In a state as red as Kentucky, those undecided voters are going to lean to the right, and even if they have to hold their noses to do so, they're more likely to pull the lever for the Republican name than the Democratic one. That hurdle might explain why Grimes, despite months of courting and cajoling, still hasn't made a decision. Indeed, another question in this poll, asked right after the McConnell-Grimes matchup, gives me further pause:
In general, who would you rather support for the United States Senate: Mitch McConnell, a Republican who's been in Washington for 30 years, or a Kentucky Democrat who has not worked in Washington, DC?
Even in this dream scenario, which frames the race exactly as the Senate Majority PAC might wish it to be framed, this Platonic ideal of a Democrat only prevails by a 47-44 margin. But as I say, this is best-of-all-worlds framing. McConnell is already extremely well funded, and he'll be able to outspend his opponent and attack her every which way until two Novembers from now. By that point, the contest won't look like "crusty Beltway Republican versus untainted Kentucky Democrat."
It's also worth noting that McConnell's job approval rating has rebounded sharply. In April, he was mired at an abysmal 36-54. Now he stands at 44-47—still mediocre, certainly, but much improved. It certainly would not be impossible to beat him, but it would require raising a ton of money, running a hell of a campaign, and probably catching a few lucky breaks.
Grimes is young (just 34) and has had the "rising star" label attached to her name for some time already. Senate Majority PAC is probably trying to convince her to get in, but does she want to potentially risk future advancement for a bruising, uphill race, and potential loss, now? I honestly can't say how I'd act if I were in her shoes. As I said the last time PPP polled this race, it's a high-risk, high-reward gamble. Beating the GOP Senate leader would turn Grimes into a giant-killer and a national sensation. We'll find out soon enough how tempting that prospect is for her.