The Senate Gang of Eight
Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he thinks there will be no trouble getting the all-important 60 votes for the immigration overhaul.
“I think we have 60 votes. Remember, we start out at 55 Democrats. I think the most I’ll lose is two or three. Let’s say I wind up with 52 Democrats,” Reid told the Nevada TV program “To the Point.”
“I only need eight Republicans, and I already have four, so that should be pretty easy,” the Nevada Democrat said in reference to the four GOP senators in the “gang of eight” that drafted the bill. He may very well pick up the vote of his Republican junior colleague from his home state, Dean Heller, as well.
Sen. Jon Tester is the likeliest no, and if Reid's whip count is accurate, we'll lose at least one of the following, if not more: Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu and Heidi Heitkamp. Four Republicans from the gang of eight (John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Jeff Flake and Marco Rubio) and Heller would get us to 57-58. Two to three more Republicans does seem reasonable at this point, likely drawn from the party's corporatist and establishment wings. The former wants cheaper labor, the latter wants to remain electorally relevant.
Utah's Orrin Hatch voted for the bill out of committee, though he warned he might still vote against it on the floor of the Senate if he didn't get additional concessions. On the other hand, the Mormon Church has been strongly pro-immigrant and has proven a moderating influence on this issue with the Utah GOP.
Other possible yes Republican votes are Susan Collins, Kelly Ayotte, Jerry Moran, Lisa Murkowski and Rob Portman. Even Rand Paul has expressed openness to voting yes.
Reports suggest that Sen. Chuck Schumer is willing to give away the farm in order to boost Republican support for the bill. The goal isn't to hit 60, but to get closer to 70 or beyond. The rationale makes some sense—there will be greater pressure on the House to pass the bill if the likes of Rand Paul are aboard. On the other hand, what kind of bill will we need to get Paul's support? It won't be pretty.
As Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voices, tweeted yesterday, it's better to have a good bill with 65 votes than a bad one with 75. Democrats have already made severe concessions on LGBT rights and labor in order to get this far. We already have the support of Republicans like Flake, Graham, Rubio and McCain. There is nothing left in this bill that should offend any other Republican on the correct side of the xenophobic divide.
At this point, it's on Republicans: Either they continue their path to electoral irrelevance by further obstructing, or they pass a sensible bill that will give them a future fighting chance. No need for Democrats to further sully this bill to try and get the bigots aboard.