Without Michelle Bachmann, I can no longer campaign.
It seems to be pure coincidence in timing that Democratic candidate running in Minnesota's 6th congressional district, Jim Graves, decided to drop out of the race just a day or so after Michelle Bachmann decided to chicken out and not run for re-election. This comes one month after Graves announced he was running again after nearly defeating Bachmann last November. One might wonder if Graves really did run in 2014 because of the wicked witch of the west for the Tea Party.
However, Graves' decision to drop out of the race may have been a smarter decision than Bachmann's. Whereas Bachmann is admitting her decision to leave Congress has nothing to do with any thinking of her viability or pending ethics investigations (when we know these factors are really the case for her leaving), Graves barely went into much if any campaigning.
Given now this is almost June 2013 and it's still, by tradition, very early to run for Congress when running for a seat in the House is nothing compared to running for the U.S. Senate, Governor or President of the United States, it appears there still may be time for Democrats to group up together and get behind a Democratic candidate besides Graves who can run in the 6th Congressional District of Minnesota but with a different campaign than Graves might have run.
http://erstarnews.com/...
Democratic leaders expressed disappointment that hotelier Graves, who came within about 4,200 votes of defeating Bachmann in 2012, is quitting the race.
“While I am disappointed that Jim Graves has dropped out of the race for Congress, he ran a good campaign in 2012 and has laid the groundwork for another DFL candidate in 2014,” State DFL Party Chairman Ken Martin said in a press release.
“Although it’s a conservative district, with the right candidate, this is a great opportunity for Democrats,” Martin said in part.
Even Republicans in the district have argued that Graves' momentum was shot because of Bachmann's decision not to run for re-election:
Local 6th District Republicans immediately spoke of Bachmann’s departure from the race as hurting Graves’ campaign. Without the celebrity Republican, campaign contributions Graves otherwise might have counted on would dry up, one Republican speculated.
By reading further into the article whose quotes I've cited, it's clear Jim Graves really ran in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District race mainly because of Michelle Bachmann. In that aspect, because Graves, a successful business leader himself, ran a campaign last year that almost defeated Bachmann and brought more votes into Democratic territory than before, there's been more pressure on her than ever before.
So if you really think about it, Jim Graves did defeat Michelle Bachmann. He just didn't do it in November 2012.
So as a result, we have Graves to thank for firing up the 6th Congressional District of Minnesota. Now we just need to figure out what the next step will be in the race.
Because Graves’ withdrawal was a surprise, DFL district officials had not been searching for other candidates, Usher said.
There are not a lot of DFL officeholders in the district, Usher said. So he suspects the a candidate could come from the business community.
“There’s plenty of time,” Usher said of finding a new candidate.
The Democratic 6th District Congressional Endorsement Convention is next March.
I've been reading arguments on Daily Kos and on news outlets on Minnesota's 6th Congressional District being R+6 or even R+8. I really don't know how you can make this kind of assessment anymore given the November 2012 election voting data:
http://ballotpedia.org/...
U.S. House, Minnesota, District 6, General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Michele Bachmann 50% 179,240
Democratic Jim Graves 49.3% 174,944
NA Write-in 0.3% 969
Total Votes: 355,153
In fact, I believe these R+6 and R+8 codes are really nothing more than to indicate voter registration, not so much attitudes of constituents living in Congressional Districts like Minnesota's 6th. Sure, there are quite a number of Republicans in the 6th district but unlike other Republican-occupied districts in the U.S., the 6th district is less red compared to say a Congressional district in Alabama, where nominating someone to challenge Rep. Jo Bonner would be like pulling teeth.
And by the way, Jo Bonner just recently announced he was jumping ship and not running for re-election by taking a university job in Alabama. Difference is, he already had another job lined up. Bachmann's plans are uncertain as of yet (although we could argue she would easily find work at Fox News). Funny how the big news outlets like CNN, Fox News and MSNBC cover Bachmann's decision to drop out but not Bonner's.
Of course, with a district like Alabama's 1st Congressional District, you'd think Michelle Bachmann's district is a swing district. Observe last election voting results in AL-01:
http://ballotpedia.org/...
U.S. House, Alabama, District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Jo Bonner Incumbent 97.9% 196,374
Write-In N/A 2.1% 4,302
Total Votes: 200,676
Yes, that's correct: Jo Bonner got approximately 98% of the votes in Alabama's 1st Congressional district. 98% of everyone in the district. If a GOP Congressman in a red district gets 98% of votes, then that's a certifiable deep red district. And if you go back to every election cycle since Bonner first got elected as Congressman in 2002, you'll note the following:
1) Not a single Democrat has challenged Bonner since 2006.
2) The largest percentage of the votes any Democratic challenger to Jo Bonner had was in 2002 was 37.8% and the Democrat running in the AL-01 race then was Judy McCain.
3) Since 2002, every additional Democratic challenger to Jo Bonner has drawn less votes than the previous challenger. Whereas Judy McCain got 37.8% of the votes in 2002, Judy Belk got 36.8% when she ran in 2004, Vivian Sheffield Beckerle got 31.8% of the votes when she ran in 2006. Since then, no Democrat has been daring enough to run against Bonner.
4) Minnesota's 6th District may be the reddest region in the state but Minnesota at large is becoming increasingly more blue, will likely continue the trend in the years to come and the Democratic Farmer's League/Democratic Party there is fired up. Alabama on the other hand is a deep red state and the Alabama Democratic Party is hurting for cash and has low morale.
What does this mean for Minnesota's 6th Congressional District? Well, simply put: If anyone wants to make the argument that the district is not winnable by Democrats in 2014, what's the basis for that?
Jim Graves got almost 50% last November against Michelle Bachmann. The votes could have come from any of the following:
a) Democrats
b) Moderate Republicans (arguably there are quite a number of moderates in the 6th Congressional District
c) Conservative Republicans
d) Tea Party Republicans
e) Independents
Now me personally, I'm inclined to say Graves got votes from a, b, and e. Not so sure about c but I know d is a no-brainer and doesn't apply because knowing Tea Party folks, they have a one-track mind.
But if anyone wants to argue that no Democrat can win in 2014 without Michelle Bachmann, that's a preposterous argument considering no one in the GOP is currently running in the race after Bachmann and Graves dropped out. Is the concern about 2014 simply about winning or serving your constituency? What's it going to be naysayers?
Furthermore, the Tea Party still has leaders in the House of Representatives and even stronger leaders in the U.S. Senate. Ted Cruz remains and so does Tim Scott, Louie Gohmert, Steve King and Joe Wilson. Whether the GOP runs a moderate Republican or not in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, there's going to be a lot more scrutiny on the GOP candidate than on the Democratic candidate because of how much the national GOP party depends on the Tea Party, evangelical Christians, the Christian far right as donors and supporters, as well as shooting itself in the foot on issues such as the environment, economy, gun control and so forth.
So basically put, whoever the GOP eventually nominates in 2014 won't necessarily cruise for re-election. We also don't even know that the person, he or she, will be a moderate or Tea Party Republican. It's also May 2013 so let's not get ourselves too worked up just yet.
Also, more information on why the DFL is wasting no time in getting its base to emerge candidates to run in the 6th Congressional district:
http://www.startribune.com/...
As soon as the conversation with Graves ended, Martin and other DFL leaders started making calls to other potential DFL contenders – former politicians, business leaders, anyone who might be able to win over voters in the most conservative congressional district in the state. Open congressional seats are rare, and he hasn’t given up hope that the right Democrat might have a shot at the Sixth.
“Seeing (Graves) decide not to run is a big disappointment, but certainly not a fatal blow,” Martin said. “It’s a great opportunity for the DFL to win in this district.”
“I think you’re going to see a competitive race on both sides of the aisle. It’s a great opportunity for the DFL to win in this district. That hasn’t changed. Clearly, we had one strong candidate. In the days and hours ahead, we’re going to have other strong candidates enter in the field."
So bottom line: Let's move on. Jim Graves is going back to the private sector and it's very unlikely he'll come back in into the 2014 race.
Now does anyone want to run for Minnesota's 6th Congressional District? Or do you want to voice your opinion on who should run? Democratic Farmer Labor Party information below:
Website: http://www.dfl.org/
Address: 255 East Plato Blvd. St. Paul, MN 55107
Phone: 651-293-1200 or 1-800-999-7457 (toll free)
Fax: (651) 251-6325
Contact DFL Staff: http://www.dfl.org/...