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The Four Tops -- "I Can't Help Myself"

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Comment Preferences

  •  RRH had this question (8+ / 0-)

    but I think we can do it too.

    Who are your favorite and least favorite Senators, Governors, and Representatives.  Try to limit it to one if possible, although I'll admit I can't do that.

    Governors: Jerry Brown, Rick Scott/Paul LePage (tied)
    Senators: Sherrod Brown, James Inhofe.
    Representatives: Too many good Democrats to distinguish between them and pick one, but my five least favorite are the Fanatical Four of Gohmert, Bachmann, King, and Broun, and I'll add Mark Sanford onto the list because he's horrid.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:37:54 PM PDT

    •  Easy (0+ / 0-)

      Governors: Hickenlooper v. Deal
      Senators: Landrieu/Heitkamp v. Cruz
      Representatives: Norton/Sinema/Lewis/Castro v. the same people you mentioned.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:45:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Governor (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, betelgeux, Alibguy

      Martin O'Malley/Phil Bryant (class A douchenozzle)
      Senator Bernie Sanders/Jim Inhofe
      Representatives Barbara Lee/Steve Stockman

      Governor was the hardest choice, but it seems as of late that O'Malley has done the most to advance a liberal policy agenda when nobody was forcing him to and even if it's to burnish his presidential credentials, that's still worth a lot in my book.

      I'd say my least favorite Democratic governor is Andrew Cuomo for reasons that should be incredibly obvious to any regular DKEr, while my least disliked Republican governor is probably Brian Sandoval for being quite open to compromises with his state's Democratic legislature. Sherrod Brown wins my MVP vote considering he's a genuine liberal who locks down a swing state with Mark Begich a close second, but on policy I gotta go with Sanders who at least has the courage (and political ability) to call a spade a spade. Lee wins hands down in the House for being probably the most liberal member overall and for voting against things like the AUMF.

    •  Answers (6+ / 0-)

      Governors: Jerry Brown, Scott Walker
      Senators: Elizabeth Warren, Ted Cruz
      Representatives: Lois Capps, Steve Stockman

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:52:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is a pretty hard one (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GloFish, Zack from the SFV, Sylv

      Governors: I'm inclined to agree with your choices of Jerry Brown as the best and Rick Scott as the worst.  I'll add a tie with Bobby Jindal for worst (surprise surprise).

      Senate: Mary Landrieu's voting record isn't my favorite but I have a ton of respect for all she's done for the state and her willingness to take tough votes.  Least favorite is Ted Cruz, with James Inhofe a close second.

      House: There are also a ton I like and hate.  But for this week's antics, Trent Franks gains the bottom spot.  For favorite I'm going with my old Congressman Mike Honda.  His voting record is great and his office has always been very quick and responsive when I've dealt with them in the past.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:56:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Danny Ricci, skibum59

      Governor: Jerry brown v. Corbett (by a mile, his initiative to massively defund all the poor school districts in the state while not touching suburban districts or raising taxes is one of the most execrable actions taken by any American politician in recent memory IMHO)

      Senators: Reid v. Inhofe (what a tool)

      House: would be Periello if he were still there v. Steve King (Gohmert is probably the dumbest member of the House but at least he's amusing rather than purely malevolent -- plus I wouldn't want to cast aspersions on his Asparagus).

      27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:58:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's just no shortage of terrible GOP governors (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, Sylv

        Govs. Scott, LePage, Walker, Corbett, Kasich, Bryant, Haslam, Deal, Kasich, Brownback, etc., are just awful, horrible chief executives.

        •  Even the better ones would be horrible (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          with a GOP legislature. I'm talking about folks like Christie, Martinez, and Sandoval who seem pretty unoffensive, but so would Pat McCrory had he beaten Perdue in 2008 until the GOP won the legislature in 2010. Then he'd have signed all of their batshit crazy stuff like he's going to do now. For example, they're going to drastically cut the personal and corporate income tax and raise the sales tax on things like groceries so it fucks the poor the most. While Christie might not have signed that in particular, a GOP trifecta in New Jersey still would have been very bad news, particularly on anything labor related.

          •  Are they doing that? (0+ / 0-)

            I heard Pat McCrory endorsed the much more moderate (albeit still conservative) House tax reform plan, for which I give him credit.  I don't know the details of the bill but I didn't think it raised sales taxes.  If Bob Rucho is throwing a tantrum and resigning his chairmanship it must not be that bad.

    •  Selections (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, RVKU

      I'll do one of each from each party.
      (favorite, least favorite)
      Democrats:
      Governor: Jerry Brown, Mark Dayton
      Senator: Barbara Boxer, Bob Menendez
      Representative: Carolyn Maloney, Sheila Jackson Lee

      Republicans
      Governor: Jan Brewer, Nathan Deal (what a sorry lot Republican governors are. I guess I picked Brewer as my favorite because she's at least 10 notches less crazy than most of her fellow Arizona republicans)
      Senators: Lisa Murkowski, Mike Lee
      Representative: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Tim Huelskamp

      •  Gov. Dayton is indeed bad (0+ / 0-)

        I'm rethinking whether I think he's worse than Gov. Cuomo, who is a craven political opportunist who screwed over his own party. They're both not great.

        I'm not terribly impressed with Gov. Inslee, either. Compared to his veteran counterparts in Salem and Sacramento, he seems to be in over his head.

        •  What happened with Dayton? (0+ / 0-)
          •  Others can explain this better than me (0+ / 0-)

            but the last session in which the Democrats controlled the whole legislative process was far messier than it should've been. And Dayton's first budget proposal was almost universally panned as unworkable and undoable and it played very perfectly into the stereotype that all Democrats want to do is tax, tax, tax! spend, spend, spend!

            Not to pile on Dayton, but he also isn't very personable. He comes off very stilted, gruff, and awkward in person and I've had the (dis)pleasure of interacting with him a few times a couple of years ago. His senate career (does anyone even remember that) was also basically a total and complete dud.

      •  They tend to change every minute, but for now: (7+ / 0-)

        Best Dem Governor: Jerry Brown. Shumlin and O'Malley may have better policies, but holy crap, Brown can govern like no one else right now. Kudos.

        Worst Dem Governor: Pat Quinn, probably. I tend to think that horrible numbers seldom are completely without merit.

        Best GOP Governor: Sean Parnell, maybe? Has he done anything extraordinarily bad? Otherwise Christie by default.

        Worst GOP Governor: Scott Walker is dangerous. A big bench to choose from...

        Best Dem Senator: Ron Wyden, at least right now. Sanders also has a place in my heart.

        Worst Dem Senator: Baucus gets a pass. He's horrible but he's going. But the great state of Delaware is stuck with Tom Carper - probably the Least Valuable Player in the Democratic Senate Caucus by far right now.

        Best GOP Senator: Lisa Murkowski. The Miller-smack justifies a lot, frankly.

        Worst GOP Senator: Mitch McConnell. Some people are just owners of dark hearts.

        Best Dem Representative: Zoe Lofgren. She's been excellent at handling the net issues, and she knows what she's talking about.

        Worst Dem Representative: Sheila Jackson Lee. Unseat the Queen! Long live Emperor Napoleon!

        Best Rep Representative: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. It's okay to be a conservative if you're a decent person, which she seems to be.

        Worst Rep Representative: Let's go with Paul Broun. But frankly it's a toss-up.

        As a side not, I lost my Kos and DKE virginity. Yay me.

    •  Looks like a lot of us (0+ / 0-)

      like Jerry Brown.

      Governors: Jerry Brown, Rick Perry
      Senators: Jack Reed, Ted Cruz
      Reps: hmm, yeah, a lot of choices. John Lewis, Elijah Cummings, Carolyn McCarthy. If we are talking about former reps, I'll add Patrick Murphy.

      For those I dislike. Probably Bachmann and Sanford. Bachmann especially after the way she went after Huma Abedin last year.

    •  Hmm, good one (0+ / 0-)

      Governors: John Kitzhaber of Oregon vs. Rick Scott of Florida. (Runners-up: Jerry Brown of California vs. Scott Walker of Wisconsin; Martin O'Malley of Maryland vs. Paul LePage of Maine.)

      Senators: Ron Wyden of Oregon vs. James Inhofe of Oklahoma. (Runners-up: Christopher Coons of Delaware vs. John Cornyn of Texas; Mark Udall of Colorado vs. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia.)

      Representatives: Meh, I agree with you.

      I propose a variant -- most/least favorite from each party!

      Democratic Governors (least favorite): Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii. (Runners-up: Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia; Andrew Cuomo of New York.)

      Democratic Senators (least favorite): Max Baucus of Montana. (Runners-up: Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Bob Menendez of New Jersey.)

      Republican Governors (favorite): Gary Herbert of Utah. (Runners-up: Chris Christie of New Jersey; Bob McDonnell of Virginia. Jeez, that's slim pickings.)

      Republican Senators (favorite): Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. (Runners-up: Jeff Chiesa of New Jersey; Tom Coburn of Oklahoma. Again, slim pickings.)

      •  Whoops, meant Sen. Ted Cruz, not Sen. Cornyn (0+ / 0-)

        Though I dislike Cornyn nearly as much. Sen. Chambliss edges him out for his brutal scorched-earth defamatory campaign against then-Sen. Max Cleland, an American patriot and hero.

      •  I like your varient (0+ / 0-)

        For Dems:

        Best Gov: Jerry Brown.  Worst Gov: Pat Quinn.

        Best Sen: Mary Landrieu.  Worst Sen: Max Baucus.  I can't really forgive him for how he made health care reform so difficult.  

        Best House: Mike Honda.  Worst House: Bobby Rush.  

        For GOP:

        Best Gov: Susana Martinez.   Worst Gov: Rick Scott.  Narrowly beats out Jindal due to the latter's usual competence during a disaster.

        Best Sen: Lisa Murkowski.  Worst Sen: Ted Cruz.

        Best House: Frank LoBiondo.  Worst House: Trent Franks.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:42:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Baucus (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skibum59

          Baucus really slowed down the health-care process, didn't he. It's really hard to comprehend why the very people who had the most to lose by a drawn-out painful process were the ones who made it so drawn-out (see Ross in the House as well).

      •  Least favorite Dems/favorite Republicans (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, SaoMagnifico

        Least favorite Dems:
        Gov: Andrew Cuomo
        Sen: Bob Menendez
        Representative: Alcee Hastings

        Favorite Republicans:
        Gov: Chris Christie
        Senator: Lisa Murkowski
        Representative: Richard Hanna

        I think I just picked the least conservative from each category.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:33:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I love me some Lisa Murkowski! :) (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, R30A

        27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

        by IndyLiberal on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:24:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I, too, like your variant: (0+ / 0-)

        Least favorite Dems -

        Governor: Chafee
        Senator: Pryor
        Representative: Hastings, Cuellar, Jackson-Lee, Bernice-Johnson

        Most favorite Reps -

        Governor: Haslam, Herbert, and Brewer are the only decent ones
        Senator: Graham, Collins, and Corker
        Representatives: Cotton, Ros-Lehtinen, Fortenberry, Gibson, Hanna, Sensenbrenner

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 08:52:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Congressfolks (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        okiedem

        Favorite Democrats: Reps. John Lewis, Sean Patrick Maloney, and Earl Blumenauer.

        Least favorite Democrats: Reps. Corrine Brown, Lacy Clay, and Bob Brady.

        Favorite Republicans: Reps. Richard Hanna, Frank Wolf, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

        Least favorite Republicans: Reps. Eric Cantor, Darrell Issa, and Paul Ryan. (Sure, Reps. Louie Gohmert, Michele Bachmann, Trent Franks, Mark Sanford, Scott DesJarlais, Steve King, Virginia Foxx, and Steve Stockman are despicable people who say foolish and hateful things, but think about who is really screwing America with their ill-deserved positions in Congress.)

    •  I like this question! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, Alibguy

      I think that it says a lot about how individual people think.

      Governors: Peter Shumlin/Sam Brownback
      Senators: Elizabeth Warren/Ted Cruz
      Representatives: Ed Markey/Louie Gohmert

      I'll briefly defend each of these. Governor Shumlin has been, in my mind, the most progressive governor in the country. On a personal level, I'm much more partial to Martin O'Malley and I would like him to run for President, but I think that Shumlin should be recognized for the stands he's taken on issues and for his legislative accomplishments. They may not be as plentiful as O'Malley's, or as well-publicized, but they are far-reaching and are progressive gold that should be duplicated in other states. Governor Brownback has just been the most extreme governor in the country, and the most detrimental to LGBT rights, women's rights, education, gun policy, and just about every issue on the table.

      Senator Warren is a no-brainer. It's amazing to finally have a Senator on the Banking Committee who thoroughly understands the ins and outs of the issues that are put before it and who balances that fluency with the fact that she is not in the pocket of the banking industry! She is a solid progressive and I cannot think of any issue with which I disagree with her. Senator Cruz enrages me. He has a holier-than-thou constitutional approach and he's been extremely inappropriate and disgusting with his conduct thus far.

      I have loved Congressman Markey for a long time! He is an expert on energy and climate change issues and has pushed forcefully on them. The fact that he opted to address the 2007 climate convention in Bali through Second Life rather than flying there himself shows that he knows how to walk the walk. Congressman Gohmert, on the other hand, is likely the most ignorant and belligerent member of Congress, and makes the most outlandish claims out of any of them--and for a Congress that includes Michele Bachmann and Steve King, that speaks volumes.

      Actually, that wasn't a brief defense at all. Please forgive me!

      19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

      by tqycolumbia on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:46:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Steve Beshear/Scott Walker (0+ / 0-)

      Jeff Merkley/Rand Paul
      Good question/Darrell Issa

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:46:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Let me try: (0+ / 0-)

      Govs: Jerry Brown, Paul LePage (he's acting like a Branch Davidian since Democrats won bak the legislature)
      Sens.: Gillibrand, Ted Cruz/Mike Lee
      Reps.: George Miller/Rush Holt, Broun/Bachmann/sure there's someone else

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:55:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why did I choose George Miller? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        He's like a kindly old uncle in appearance and he was my dad's Congressman when he was in high school.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:57:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Let me add in Gohmert and Franks (0+ / 0-)

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:25:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'll just re-post mine. (0+ / 0-)

      Favorite
      1. Mike Lee
      2. Scott Walker
      3. Renee Ellmers (biased)

      Least
      1. Harry Reid
      2. Martin O'Malley
      3. Alan Grayson

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:08:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here is mine (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      Governor- Jerry Brown (favorite); Haley (least), but if you count who is really in charge in North Carolina- Art Pope
      Senate- Jon Tester (favorite), also have to give an honorable mention to Al Franken; Cornyn, aka Post Turtle (least)
      House- Alana Grayson (favorite); Issa, following closely with Virginia Foxx (least)

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:23:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ok (0+ / 0-)

      Governor: Hickenlooper; Scott
      Senator: Schumer; Inhofe
      House: Conyers; Westmoreland

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:44:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  here are mine (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Governor: Jerry Brown/ Rick Scott

      It's nice seeing CA back in the black and prove that the state can run a surplus with a Dem trifecta.

      Senate: Jeff Merkley & Joe Manchin(a close 2nd)/ Rand Paul

      In regards to Manchin I like that he's started having a better track record, and with Rockefeller retiring he'll be the most progressive senator we will get out of West Virginia in a long while.

      House: So many choose from but I'll go with Steve Cohen/Louie Gohmert  

      “Herbert Hoover once ran on the slogan, “Two cars in every garage”. Apparently, the Republican candidate this year is running on the slogan, “Two families in every garage”.” ~Harry Truman 1948

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:49:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've mocked California long and loudly... (0+ / 0-)

        Here and elsewhere. But I really have to hand it to the Democrats in Sacramento. Since Gov. Brown took office, the state has turned around so fast it's given the Carson Valley whiplash.

        •  The California Dems do have their shit together (0+ / 0-)

          I thank God that Indiana Repubilcans are not nearly as organized or efficient, or the recently finsihed legislative session here could have been much, much worse than it was.

          •  As a California Democrat; I disagree. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            The state's Republican party has been off its med's for so long and been so deeply insulting to such a large part of the population that gravity and the various other laws of physics have finally kicked in.

            •  I almost tossed my lunch at a compliment (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              skibum59

              for CA Dems.  Any recent success is despite the party, not because of it.

              For example Brown just strong-armed the leg Dems into relatively sane behavior that they did not want to do.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:21:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  yeah, in Oregon too (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              skibum59, lordpet8

              our success is mainly because enough voters have determined that they simply cannot support Republicans. Any amount that is caused by the strength of the Dem party is just in being able to get those fed up people to vote.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:27:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  While I do agree that the GOP Obstruction (0+ / 0-)

              played a huge part in the Democrats gaining 2/3rds.

              I still think we need to give a little credit to the Dems.
              Darrell Steinberg made some excellent recruitments (Richard Roth has to be favorite), Efforts by the Democrats to register voters online padded our support to win races like Steve Fox's upset.

              The general reason why the CA Dems appear weak is due to their inability to win cross over seats. Every seat that Dems hold in the legislature was carried by Obama. The CA GOP on the other hand not only holds every Romney district but manages to win even a few Obama seats. Honestly I'd be just happy if the dems could hold ever seat that was carried by Obama.

              “Herbert Hoover once ran on the slogan, “Two cars in every garage”. Apparently, the Republican candidate this year is running on the slogan, “Two families in every garage”.” ~Harry Truman 1948

              by lordpet8 on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:37:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Hard for me to decide (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, IndianaProgressive

      but I'll try (couldn't keep it at one for most):

      Favorites:
      Governors: Jerry Brown, Peter Shumlin.  Hon. mention to Andrew Cuomo, who would rank higher still if he'd quit bending over backward to accommodate the Republicans.  (I excluded Martin O'Malley due to home state bias.)
      Senators: Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Mark Warner,
      Reps: Nancy Pelosi, John Dingell, Lloyd Doggett, John Lewis, and many more...

      Least Favorites:
      Governors: Sam Brownback, Scott Walker
      Senators: Jim Inhofe, Ted Cruz, Jeff Sessions
      Reps: Eric Cantor (a smarmy little hack who more than anyone else I blame for the debt-ceiling crisis, near-fiscal cliff, and continued drag on the economy.  Not the worst rhetorically, but more consequential in terms of policy impact than Bachmann, Gohmert, etc.)

      And partisan crossovers:

      Favorite Republicans:
      Governor: Chris Christie, Brian Sandoval
      Senator: Susan Collins(one of a few moderates), Lisa Murkowski (write-in revenge on the Tea Party--awesome), Tom Coburn (not a hypocrite on the deficit).  Prior to 2008, I would have said John McCain, but not since.
      Reps: Charlie Dent, Richard Hanna (definite moderates), Frank Wolf (was my Rep. in the 1990s)

      Least Favorite Democrats:
      Governor: Pat Quinn (not awful, but not too effective or competent-seeming, except on redistricting)
      Senator: Max Baucus (screwed up health care), Bob Menendez (foreign policy stuck in 1960)
      Reps: Alan Grayson, Raul Grijalva

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 09:03:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree w/ most of you (0+ / 0-)

      Dem Governors:
      Beebe v. Cuomo

      I like what Jerry Brown has done in CA but I admire Beebe for taking liberal stands recently in conservative AR.

      GOP Governors:

      Christie v. Brewer/Haley

      Despite Brewer's recent moderate streak I still think she's off her rocker.  Haley has the worst "Us vs. them" mentality of any Gov, aside from maybe Walker, but he's not as annoying.

      Dem Senators:

      Kaine/Manchin/Bill Nelson vs. Baucus

      Kaine just seems like a nice guy.  Manchin's a good politician.  Nelson seems cool.

      GOP Senators:

      McCain/Collins vs. Cruz

      McCain has moments of greatness.

      Dem Congressmen:

      John Lewis v. Bobby Rush

      GOP Congressmen:

      Walter Jones v. Steve King

    •  OGGoldy's (0+ / 0-)

      Fav/Least
      Senator: Tester / Vitter
      Governor: Hickenlooper / Kasich
      House: Walz / Sanford

      Opposite Parties (Fav / Least)

      Senator: Hatch / Feinstein
      Governor: Branstad / Quinn
      House: Reichert / Rangel

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 10:51:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hm (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, tqycolumbia, askew

      Gov: Shumlin, Corbett
      Sen: Sanders/Warren, Cruz
      House: Too many to name, as you said, but Rush Holt! and Gwen Moore get special mention. Least favorite? Lacy Clay. Republicans are stupid and evil but betraying your own out of self-interest is a special kind of badness.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 03:23:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll stick with Democrats. (0+ / 0-)

      Favorite, Least Favorite:

      Governor: Martin O'Malley, Andrew Cuomo
      Senator: Jeff Merkley, Max Baucus
      Representative: Matt Cartwright, Ron Kind.

      Freshman Matt Cartwright is the most liberal Congressman from Pennsylvania, and he's from Scranton! Ron Kind is conservadem in a relatively liberal district and isn't the backbencher that Dan Lipinski is.

      Our governors, by and large, are nor great. We need to do better. On the other hand, we have lots of great senators.

      Hickenlooper almost edged out Cuomo for worst Democratic governor. I think they have similar governing strategies, it's just that Hickenlooper is pulled left by the legislature.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 05:57:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kind is the worst Congressman in your eyes? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        I am curious as to why. He really isn't that conservative at all.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:34:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He's only conservative on guns (0+ / 0-)

        He voted for Obamacare and stuff.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 12:19:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Answers (0+ / 0-)

      Favorite Senator: Mikulski.
      Least favorite: Coburn.

      Favorite Governor: O'Malley.
      Least favorite: Walker.

      Favorite Representative: Schakowsky.
      Least favorite: Amash.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:15:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good answers from everyone -- I'll add mine (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy

      Favorite Governor -- Probably Martin O'Malley (Brown and Shumlin are good, too).

      Least Favorite Governor -- So many to choose from, but I'll go with Rick Perry.  Scott Walker a close runner up.

      Favorite Senator -- Sherrod Brown.

      Least Favorite Senator -- No contest for me, David Vitter.  Probably my most hated elected official.  Go wear a diaper.

      Favorite Rep -- Lots of good ones to choose from, but I'll go with John Lewis.  What an amazing life lived.

      Least Favorite Rep -- Again, hard to pick just one!  I'll go with Steve Stockman.

      Least Favorite Democrat -- Probably Max Baucus right now.

      Favorite Republican -- Hmmmm ... I'll chose Illena Ros-Lehtinen.  She was ahead of most Democrats, and many liberals, on gay rights (no doubt influenced by having a transgendered child).

    •  Favorites: (0+ / 0-)

      Governor: Jerry Brown, for showing, for the second time in his career, that no one turns a state economy around quite like he does.

      Senator: Bernie Sanders

      Representative: Ed Markey

      Least Favorites:
      Governor: Rick Snyder.  
      Senator: Tie between Cruz and Coburn
      Representative: I was originally going to say Gohmert, but at least he's entertaining.  I have to go with Issa.  

    •  ok (0+ / 0-)

      governor: yay Jerry Brown (I guess), boo Paul LePage
      senator: yay Ron Wyden, boo Ted Cruz
      rep: yay Jim Matheson, boo Paul Broun

      Matheson's voting record is well to the right of where I would be if I were in a purple or blue district, but I like him because he's the gopher the GOP can't kill.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 10:12:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Favorites are easy, least favorites are harder (0+ / 0-)

      Governor: Hickenlooper, either Walker or Scott
      Senators: Sherrod Brown, either Cruz or Paul
      Reps: Sinema, either Gohmert or Bachmann

    •  I'll try to give some people who (0+ / 0-)

      haven't been mentioned much yet.

      Best Dem Gov: Tie between O'Malley and Hickenlooper.
      Worst Dem Gov: None terrible, but I'm not too fond of Cuomo.
      Best Rep Gov: Christie (best of a bad lot)
      Worst Rep Gov: LePage (I'm surprised he hasn't been mentioned more). LePage is probably the worst governor any New England state has ever had (and yes, that includes Mitt Romney).

      Best Dem Rep: I know I'm biased, but I have to give a shout-out to my Congressman, Joe Courtney. He's solidly liberal on almost all issues, and yet he is extremely popular in Eastern CT (he outperformed Obama by >10 points).
      Best Republican Representative: One of the few House Republicans who I have any respect for is Richard Hanna. As for Walter Jones, he occasionally votes with us but for the wrong reasons (he is a libertarian, and I am an anti-libertarian).
      Worst Dem Rep: I care more about votes than temperament, so I'll have to say Jim Cooper.
      Worst Republican Representative: Wow, so many to choose from. Probably Paul Broun, but many others are close behind.

      Best Dem Sen: Before the gun vote, I might have said Begich, but now I'll have to go with either Durbin or Schumer. However, I think that Schatz has the potential to be a great Senator.
      Worst Dem Sen: None really stick out.
      Best Rep Sen: NOT Susan Collins (a state as liberal as Maine shouldn't be represented by any Republican, no matter how "centrist"). Murkowski isn't bad. Also, I must admit that Toomey's  sticking his neck out for the background-check bill was brave.
      Worst Rep Sen: Any of the few who are completely unqualified: Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 12:17:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My Picks (0+ / 0-)

      Governors: Peter Shumlin/Paul LePage
      Senators: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren/Ted Cruz, Jim Inhofe
      Representatives: Jim McGovern, Jared Polis/Paul Broun, Joe Barton

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 12:58:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Cross Posted from RRH (0+ / 0-)

      Favorite...
      Dem

      1. Senator - Mark Warner
      2. Governor - Andrew Cuomo
      3. US Representative - John Lewis

      Rep

      1. Senator - Lisa Murkowski
      2. Governor - Chris Christie
      3. US Representative - Ilena Ros-Lehtinen

      Least Favorite...

      Dem

      1. Senator - Barbara Mikulski
      2. Governor - Pat Quinn
      3. US Representative - Sheila Jackson-Lee

      Rep

      1. Senator - Ted Cruz
      2. Governor - Robert Bentley
      3. US Representative - Steve King

      A few notes...I felt it necessary to do a little more than the OP asked for, hope thats ok.  I should add some of these I don't feel THAT strongly about.  Like least favorite Dem Senate, I put Mikulski because shes been around forever and I feel like shes never at the forefront of anything.  I don't really dislike her or anything.  

      The ones I feel most strongly about are Christie being my favorite Republican Governor.  I have really grown to like him over the past 6 months.  I don't know if I could vote for him still, but against Buono it would certainly be a possibility.  I've always been a huge Mark Warner supporter and I continue to be.  I was torn between Deval Patrick and Cuomo.  I almost put Patrick because I feel home state bias has me picking Cuomo, but I figured might as well go with who I wanted to pick.

      31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 03:09:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd like to point out something (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, jncca

      Many people on DKE have wondered aloud why Christie does so well against Clinton vis-a-vis other Republicans. This question, and the answers that people have supplied, should point to exactly why: Many Democrats, and not just hardcore partisan Democrats like us, and Independents view him as the best GOP governor out there.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 04:18:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  that's like saying (0+ / 0-)

        "Many people have wondered aloud why this brand of toilet paper costs $100 a roll. It's because people view it as the best brand of toilet paper." Sure, but that only goes so far.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 06:41:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My favorites/least favorite (0+ / 0-)

      Gov: Jerry Brown, Rick Perry
      Senator: Al Franken, Lindsay Graham (I used to not mind him but I've really grown to dislike him due to his views on immigration and Benghazi)
      Reps: Jared Huffman, Michelle Bachmann

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

      by Alibguy on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 04:28:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Favorite, least favorite (0+ / 0-)

      Governor: Jerry Brown, Chris Christie (only because he gets too much credit for doing what he SHOULD have done in Hurricane Sandy)
      Senator: Kay Hagan (God damn does she have some figurative balls for a purplish-red state Dem), Ted Crus
      Reps: Kyrsten Sinema, Lou Barletta

      Gay suburbanite in NJ-11 Rush Holt for Senate!

      by interstate73 on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 06:07:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What if Mitt Romney had won the 2008 nomination? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, HoosierD42

     photo Obama-Romney2008_zps7264f91b.png

    So I've been wondering just how much better Obama might have done against Romney that year, who was the establishment and Bushes' choice. I'm guessing he'd have won by about 10-12% and 392-146 EVs given how personally popular McCain was compared to Romney who was underwater, how much less conservative he was than Romney, how badly Romney's issues like Bain Capital would have hurt in the brunt of the financial crisis, and how much of a general douche he was. In this map I've had Alaska narrowly flip, Arizona flip due to no home state boost, and then Missouri and Montana flip as well though not by huge margins. Romney does better in Appalachia by running against doing anything regarding greenhouse gases, but other than that and Utah runs worse more or less everywhere else, particularly in blue collar areas and states such as Michigan. What do you guys think, does this seem plausible?

    •  I think Obama could have won Georgia (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      as well against Romney in '08

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:48:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah I was undecided about that one (0+ / 0-)

        which is why I had it at just a plurality Romney win. It could really go either way, but I don't think it would have been better than R+6 or R+5 at the greatest, and with Obama winning by 10-12 it's in the gray area. Same with Alaska, but I think it was going to be contested by Obama given how close polling was there pre-Palin and how bad of a fit Romney is for the state compared to a McCain/Palin ticket. I think those two would have been the closest states.

        Either way, we're looking at Obama's EV total being between 389 and 407 and a good deal higher than it actually was. In particular I have little doubt Arizona would have flipped without McCain as Obama almost certainly would have contested it.

    •  I don't believe Obama would have won Alaska (0+ / 0-)

      Alaska's PVI, from 2012 alone, was about R+9.  And since that was an Obama-Romney election as well, PVI should be basically the same between 2012 and the hypothetical 2008 election you're describing.  And Alaska is if anything trending D, so it may have been R+10 or R+11 in 2008.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:02:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, Alaska is not there yet (0+ / 0-)

        Give it time, but it's not ripe for Democrats yet and it still has a way to go.

        •  what exactly is fueling Alaska's D trend? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian

          is it the youth population?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:01:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  At a guess... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            It's partially the urbanization of Anchorage and partially the GOP having really been maxed out in the Mat-Su and Kenai. Those areas, particularly the Mat-Su, saw a big evangelical influx in the 1970s and 1980s that transformed them from sparsely populated hippie haunts into sort of Alaska's "circle of ignorance" surrounding already-reddish Anchorage. I'm not sure I would point to a clear Democratic trend, but the state was artificially Republican-inflated because of that '70s/'80s boom (the population in some places nearly quadrupled), and I think the pendulum might be coming back the other way again with President Obama's big gains there from 2008 to 2012.

            It's worth noting that if rural Alaska (including coastal Alaska, which doesn't include Anchorage or the Mat-Su even though they technically have shoreline) were a state, it would be light blue.

            •  Additionally (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              Alaska has a very large minority population, and a growing one at that. It is forecasted to become minority majority sooner than the country as a whole is IIRC.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 08:57:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Native Americans (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            in Alaska shifted strongly toward the Democrats last year.  Boroughs in rural Alaska that voted narrowly for Bush and McCain voted 65-35 for Obama last year.

            •  Republicans in rural Alaska... (3+ / 0-)

              Are an endangered species. However, this comes with a huge caveat. Rural Democrats in the state legislature tend to caucus with Republicans, although they don't always vote with them on controversial bills.

              On the flip side, rural-district Republicans tend to be more moderate than their fellow Republicans. Coastal Republicans joined with Democrats in an attempt to block Gov. Parnell's oil tax cut earlier this year and fell one vote short of killing it in the Senate.

            •  The Native Americans in Alaska (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              Seem to have an interesting political history.

              They seemed to be more Republican previously, maybe due to the oil industry providing jobs. They seem to be shifting back toward the Democrats though.

              The Juneau area is interesting too though because they are traditionally Democratic but recently were shifting rightward because most of the Dems there were blue collar.

              For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

              by Alibguy on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 04:18:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Assuming Romney wouldn't have picked Palin (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59

        We probably would have flipped AK-AL and Begich probably wins by a larger margin. Though AK-AL would have flipped back in 2010 anyway.

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 03:30:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I didn't follow the '08 GOP primary much (0+ / 0-)

      was Romney really below water in favorables?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:50:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not then, but if they were in 2012 (6+ / 0-)

        I have to think that Obama and the financial crisis especially would have driven them underwater in 2008. Romney would have run the entire campaign on his business experience and September 2008 would have turned that entirely on its head with Bain Capital and his absurdly low tax rate. You can bet anything that Obama would have nuked him with ads on that and in the face of a skyrocketing unemployment rate I think that would have just been toxic enough to drive him to at least 45-50 in terms of fav/unfav. IIRC he was roughly that to around 47/47 in the more accurate pre-election polls last year, which still makes him the least popular Republican challenger since Barry Goldwater. I believe McCain was over 60% in terms of favorable opinions and that disparity has to be worth 2-3% or so in terms of vote share when the economy is falling apart. It's a shame from a political science standpoint that we can't run simultaneous elections, but Mitt Romney was really the worst possible candidate the GOP could have realistically nominated in 2008 while McCain was one of the best.

        •  Ah, that's right. (0+ / 0-)

          His ties to the finance sector would have been a heavy burden after the crash.

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:58:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  A couple of things. (0+ / 0-)

      1) For a lot of different reasons, I disagree with your decision to give Alaska to Obama and Georgia to Romney. If anything, it should be the other way around. It's not entirely incomprehensible to me that Obama could have won Alaska without some serious campaigning there. If you're going to flip any of the western states, I would consider North and South Dakota. Obama's performance there in 2008 was surprising, to say the least. There was a huge deterioration from 2008 to 2012, but I could believe that a midwestern Senator could have an appeal in those states when the other choice was an out-of-touch New England businessman.

      2) Your map is based on the assumption that Romney would have underperformed McCain. I'm not entirely sure that this is true. For one, Romney likely would not have picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. Obviously, since we're discussing an alternative universe, it's difficult to evaluate theoretical actions in hindsight (to say the least), but I think that Romney probably would've chosen someone else. I think that a lot of McCain's deterioration can be attributed to his decision to pick Palin. Additionally, I think that McCain performed particularly poorly, relatively speaking, because he was not well-versed in economic matters. The Obama campaign had a field day with reminding voters of the fact that McCain said earlier in the campaign that he would rely on his running mate for expertise on economic matters because he was more fluent in foreign affairs and defense policy. Romney would not have had that problem. While I agree that Romney would have been particularly vulnerable to attacks on Bain given the 2008 recession, what I remembered from the 2008 election was that there was not very much digging up of dirt on McCain by the Obama campaign. Maybe it's because there was none, but I find that hard to believe for a guy with such a notoriously awful temper. I'll attribute that to the fact that, for most of the campaign, from early 2007 to mid-2008, the Obama campaign was focused on attacking Clinton, not his potential Republican rivals. In 2012, the Obama campaign was almost singularly focused on digging up dirt on Romney from the moment that the campaign began to the moment that it ended. Therefore, a lot of stuff emerged. I honestly do not think that the Obama campaign would have had the time to dig up the dirt that they did last year in 2008 in the incredibly limited time that they had to gear up for the general election. Obviously, this is speculative, and I agree that even surface-level attacks on Romney's Bain record would have hurt him in 2008, but there would not have been as hard-hitting of ads in 2008 as there were in 2012.

      Wow, I wrote more than I intended to. Feel free to respond to anything and everything that I said, and if anyone else has insight on this that I don't, I would welcome it!

      19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

      by tqycolumbia on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:55:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thoroughly disagree with your second graph (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        though I'm totally open to the Alaska vs. Georgia thing since I'm of the belief that if Obama did carry Alaska it would come down to the unknowable effect of campaign investment which I'm assuming is high. Anyway, I think Romney would have been significantly worse for Republicans to nominate particularly on economic issues because his entire claim of expertise on them would have been on exploiting people in the way that made the Great Recession so damn harmful in the first place. There were almost endless swing and blue collar voters who had quite a favorable view of McCain in 2008 yet strongly disliked Romney in 2012. I also don't think that Palin mattered all that much because at the end of the day, people voted for or against the top of the ticket. Otherwise Obama would have won by much more than 7.4% as clearly less than 45% of people would have thought Palin competent to be president; I think you're overestimating the percent of people who were even aware of her disastrous CBS interview. If there's polling that showed Palin at something like 35/62 then obviously that's a difference maker, but I don't recall any polls showing her drastically unpopular or showing enough swing voters thought badly enough of her to make a difference.

        So it's for all of those reasons that I think Obama could have broken the 10% barrier against Romney that year. McCain was at over 60% favorability and that's incredible for someone who was essentially a conservative Republican their whole career. There's little reason to believe that Romney would have run as moderately as McCain did either as he staked out the conservative establishment choice in the primary and would have been a good deal to McCain's right on issues like health care, the environment, and taxes as well as a bevy of social issues. I also doubt that Romney would have picked someone like Tim Pawlenty as a running mate as, even though he wouldn't have picked Paul Ryan, he'd still have picked someone who was much more solidly conservative and who was willing to hop on board a sinking ship. At the end of the day though, I just don't think the VP choice matters that much in this day and age, especially if the top of the ticket is doing a whopping 20% worse in favorability among the electorate than the alternative. I also think that at the end of the day, Romney's background and economic policy platform would have just killed him among swing center-right voters and they'd have abandoned him in droves or worse not turned out at all.

        •  And I think that those are valid points. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, skibum59

          I'm not necessarily saying that I disagree with you, because looking something theoretical in retrospect is a challenging thing to do, and debating it is even harder! I'm saying that perhaps there should be a more substantive discussion as to whether Romney would have underperformed McCain in 2008.

          I'm of the opinion that we aren't going to get a Reagan 1984, Nixon 1972, or Johnson 1964 landslide in a presidential election in the near future. Presidential elections are going to be tighter in the future as the country gets more and more polarized. Therefore, I'm immediately not necessarily inclined to agree that Obama could have expanded too much upon his 2008 election, which was clearly decisive.

          I agree that most people didn't base their vote on the vice-presidential nominee. But considering the fact that Palin displayed blatant ignorance on a lot of issues, and that she was the running mate of a 72-year old presidential candidate in a time when the office of the President has increased in terms of the stress associated with it and the responsibilities gave credence to those concerns. I would argue that a statistically significant portion of the population voted for Obama on the basis of Palin's candidacy, though I'm really not sure what the size of that portion is.

          19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

          by tqycolumbia on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:26:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  if Palin had any effect it was in taking Alaska (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        off the table. Prior to her selection it looked competitive.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:12:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Really glad you did this (0+ / 0-)

      I also wonder who Romney would have picked for his VP candidate.

      I doubt he would have picked Palin which would have hurt his numbers if she were on the ticket.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

      by Alibguy on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 04:16:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Pawlenty or Daniels.  Romney is weaker with blue-collar Whites than McCain, so he'd have needed someone with at least a Midwestern, non-1% upbringing.  Of course, he could've gone the energize the base route and picked an evangelical as well.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 06:29:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't agree with a lot people here, because... (0+ / 0-)

      ...I think Romney would've done about the same as McCain, no worse.

      I don't see why he would've done any worse.  Or better, for that matter.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 06:55:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Stephen Wolf's point that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59

        Romney was uniquely unsuited for the 2008 election (same foreign policy as McCain combined with being the face of the Big Banks and the 1%) is one that is logical.  I believe that McCain and Romney would have done similarly should they have been nominated in 2012 (and McCain were Romney's age), but 2008 is different.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 06:58:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm skeptical that would've mattered (0+ / 0-)

          McCain absorbed all the anti-GOP hate that existed in the electorate that wasn't also scared of Obama being too inexperienced (or, in a few places, black).  I really don't think there would've been any difference in voting behavior based on Romney's resume.  I think McCain voters pretty much would've stuck with Romney.  I don't think anti-big bank sentiment in the country was any bigger in 2008 than in 2012...the big banks' image hasn't recovered.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 07:20:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think the bailout fight would have hurt him (0+ / 0-)

            Remember how the first vote failed, so the bailout stuck around in the news longer than it should have?  I think that depresses blue-collar Republican turnout.  I think it only flips Missouri and maybe Montana, but it still hurts some.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 07:51:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. Romney would have done about the same (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        .... at least in the popular vote. McCain may have been personally popular, but the conditions of 2008 meant he really couldn't take advantage of them. Obama largely maxed out in support from Democrats and independents, and it's hard to see him doing any better overall, even against a weaker candidate like Romney. Plus, McCain himself made tons of unforced errors  - his erratic reaction to the financial crisis, the Palin pick - which squandered his appeal.

        I do think against Romney Obama might have done somewhat better in the Electoral College. Missouri probably goes to Obama - even against McCain, it barely held, and this was probably a place where Palin's presence helped. (Romney's Mormonism would have detracted slightly as well.) And Obama probably contests Arizona, which could possibly fall. Montana would have been close, but I don't see any particular reason why Obama would do any better there vis-a-vis Romney than McCain. As for Georgia, Obama might keep contesting it post-August, and it'll probably be somewhat closer, but likely still sticks with Romney by about 3 points.

        So give Obama Missouri and maybe Arizona. Somewhat bigger Electoral College win, but overall a similar popular vote margin.

  •  The most important thing learned from elections (5+ / 0-)

    As observers and sometimes participants of campaigns and elections, we've seen a lot.  I'm wondering: what's the most important thing you've learned from elections?

    For me it's somewhat personal: don't believe your own hype.  I helped some people run for a very local office in NOLA and frankly I believed I was better at this than I was at the time.  People often seemed to think I was a political genius because I could name random Congressmen off the top of my head and after a while I kind of believed them.  When I ran this campaign I was caught by surprise by all the mistakes I made.  I didn't look up important details ahead of time and almost always felt I was in over my head.  

    Overall I'm happy with the job I did but I really needed this race to knock some sense into me.  I believe that next time I'll do a lot better of a job sorting out what I know and what I need to learn early.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:04:01 PM PDT

    •  For me the overall biggest lesson I've learned (4+ / 0-)

      is polarization. In 2012 in particular some of my biggest misses were because I overestimated ticket splitting and even though we only narrowly lost them, I never saw us coming as close in races such as NE-02 or NY-23.

      I can see myself doing this until I die so hopefully I'll get more accurate, but for 2012 the further you go downballot the less accurate my predictions were. I nailed the presidential race with the EV and PV margins, got all but one senate race, but missed 12 House races and they weren't all in Republicans' favor either as I didn't see Sean Patrick Maloney or John Tierney winning. Nor did I see Keith Rothfus or Andy Barr winning, so again the message I took away from elections such as 2012 and in greater retrospect 2010 was polarization. People are voting straight ticket at probably the highest rate we've ever seen in American elections.

      All of the above leads to reinforce my notion that the media/civics class version of politics is complete bullshit where Americans vote for the candidate and not the party. People tell themselves that, but it just doesn't happen in practice for the overwhelming majority of the electorate. It also leads to my ranking races like GA-12 in 2014 as a tossup despite all of Cook/Rothenburg/Sabato having it as Lean D simply due to the partisanship of the district and CA-31 being the reverse as Likely D whereas they all have it as tossup (how many highly conservative Republicans win districts Carly Fiorina couldn't win? Zero). In general when it comes to race ratings I try to be as definitive as possible without venturing into the absurdly confident because I feel like tossup is a total cop out for a race where you should absolutely should know which way it will go in the end, such as CA-31.

    •  canvassing will always make me (6+ / 0-)

      rethink preconceptions about people and the places they live.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:07:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't worry (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, gabjoh, Swamp Cat

      Campaign effects are limited, most of what happens matters in only a marginal way. My first real staff job was working as a field director on a state rep race. I made so many mistakes, similar to you, thankfully (I guess?) we lost by 24 points. If I'd been perfect, maybe we could have goosed that to only losing by 22.

      Point being, a world class GOTV operation can move the needle a few point. TV moves things about 5%, maybe 10%, if you run up a ridiculous GRP advantage. A strong mail program is, maybe, a point or two. The parade of scandals, stupid press releases and media sillyness is like four votes.

      So, build a field program, build a paid communication program, build an earned media program and relax. There'll be enough to actually stress about.

  •  Comment on Kentucky this weekend (4+ / 0-)

    Issue 1- Redistricting. Legislators have agreed that the maps will be consistent in whether to count federal prisoners or not. There is even the possibility of reopening Congressional maps if needed to make them consistent. Jack Brammer predicts the special session on redistricting sometime between mid August and late September. The special session will last only five days at a cost of $65,000 per day. One day to keep in mind is November 4. Legislators must live in their district for one year prior to Election Day. Legislators want to keep a session outside of summer vacations.

    Special House Election (HD-56), which is made of all of Woodford County, plus a few precincts in Southern Franklin and Western Fayette. Ferrell Wellman has noted this race is attracting a lot of attention. The GOP thinks that this a precursor to trying to take over the House in 2014. Carl Rollins won the 2012 race with about 53%. The next round of campaign filings is Monday. James Kay has raised about $90k, and the GOP candidate Lyen Crews has raised $40-50k. A GOP SuperPAC has already spent $150k here, mostly through mailers. They have attacked Kay being only 30 and is even running a mailer showing James Kay in a jockey outfit he wore to a Halloween Party that he had put on Facebook. Wellman lives in the district and has now received 18 mailers. He says Crews is on the attack, while Kay has been positive until now. He is running a television ad against Crews for business issues. The panel notes that the district is 60% registered Dems, with a lot of state employees. This race will be a lot about turnout on June 25. The Fayette County Clerk moved some voters in an apartment complex in Lexington into the district. They were mostly Democrats. Dems are in a full court press here. Beshear is making robocalls and several state officials will campaign for Kay next week. There will be a forum on Tuesday between the candidates. If the GOP wins, the House will be 54-46 Dem.

    Senate Race- Grimes Watch. Jack Brammer thinks it is to her advantage to wait until after July 1 due to campaign finance reports. He says she is getting well prepared in the case that she does run so that she will not get tripped up on any issues. Right now she is making calls trying to lock down financial commitments, making a lot of calls. The GOP is worried- they are sending trackers following her everywhere.

    Education- The State Board of Education approved new science standards. The far right is concerned about teaching of evolution and climate science. The standards still have to go through the legislative regulatory committees. The head of the Senate Education Committee is Mike Wilson (R-Bowling Green), who runs a Christian radio station, who is concerned about teaching that evolution can lead to new species.

    Other Issues- Does Kentucky have too many boards? They have more than any state but North Carolina. And Kentucky keeps adding more boards. There is scrutiny of the Commissioner of Fish and Wildlife. They also discussed the national publicity Rand Paul has been getting over the NSA issues and immigration reform. The state budget looks better than expected.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:32:23 PM PDT

    •  Grimes is doing it right. (4+ / 0-)

      She'll be very well prepared for McConnell's onslaught.

    •  I read that about the St. House race (0+ / 0-)

      about how the GOP PAC has spent over 140K on attack and saw a pic of some of the mailers.  They're pretty crazy and reminds me of the Aqua Buddha attacks of 2010 and that it seems to be oversaturation.  Do you think so as well?  I read also that SoS Grimes and a number of Dem female legislators will canvas and march with Kay.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:48:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I also read on Politico that Grimes met with Reid (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, SaoMagnifico

      no doubt about potential committee assignments and DSCC support.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:48:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The panel were sure talking about Grimes (4+ / 0-)

      that it is when she announces rather than if she runs.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 06:26:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Was her rhetoric at the Wendell Ford Dinner (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        what made people think she's going to run?

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:15:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Still No Results in Iran (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, tommypaine

    An official from Qalibaf's campaign has posted congratulations to Rouhani and his campaign on twitter.

    Both Speaker of the Majlis Ali Larijiani and his brother the head of the Judiciary are at the Interior Ministry.

    Lots of rumors seeming to split between a Ghalibaf/Rouhani runoff and an outright Rouhani win.

  •  Potential future headline (7+ / 0-)

    Should Michelle Nunn run for GA-Sen

    "Dems choose Nunn of the above."
    Or it could be used for primary night. Someday we need to beat the headline "Panic! At Tedisco"

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

    by trowaman on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 05:45:48 PM PDT

  •  Wow, it looks like Tehran may have given up... (5+ / 0-)

    On preventing Rouhani from being declared president-elect. He's running way ahead of Qalibaf right now, according to vote counts I'm seeing reported on social media.

  •  Races I'm interested in: (6+ / 0-)

    FL-02 I think is one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.  

    But really for me its all the NJ Democratic primaries, I've pretty much sold my soul on Twitter constantly promoting everything I've written on it.  But I'm really excited to have a local primary.

    My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com My new Twitter: @RushHolt4Senate

    by RVKU on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:04:36 PM PDT

    •  What's that twitter account about? (0+ / 0-)

      Are you working for Rush Holt?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:32:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd love to (0+ / 0-)

        but its an unofficial/fan/citizens page.  Figured the more people who are aware of his campaign, the better.

        My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com My new Twitter: @RushHolt4Senate

        by RVKU on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:33:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I think we need a comprehensive guide to DKE memes (7+ / 0-)

    Bob Massie, Lori Compas, Jerry Tetalman, Ralph Northam, babka, the fact that we're all gay Jews from southern Indiana, Panic! at Tedisco...

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

    by kurykh on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 07:19:40 PM PDT

  •  who voted against fluoride? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    the Oregonian has a map showing support highest on the on the west side and a wealthy neighborhood on the east side, while the east side was mostly uniformly strongly against, especially in the outer east side. That area is lower income and less white, and I'm guessing had lower turnout than much of the rest of the city. I'm going to check on that now that I see results are up.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 08:36:23 PM PDT

    •  and indeed (0+ / 0-)

      North, Outer Northeast, and Outer Southeast had the lowest turnout. Those are the poorest/least white parts of the city, aside from a bit of inner NE.  Turnout ranged from above 49% in SW and Inner Northeast to under 37% in Outer Southeast.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 10:15:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY CD-11 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Keep your eyes on this one, 1 1/2 years to go and they're already nasty.  This is what Dominic Recchia had to say this week about Congressman Grimm (who I hope loses big time - he's such a phony).

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011)

    by Rosalie907 on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 08:53:07 PM PDT

  •  ENDA now has 50 co-sponsors in the Senate (9+ / 0-)

    including Harry Reid, who has now promised to bring up the measure. ENDA (the employee non-discrimination act) would ban private employers from firing an employee on the basis of the employee's sexual orientation or gender identity. The DADT repeal bill also had 50 co-sponsors when it was brought up for a vote in 2010.  (Although with Senator Lautenberg's death the number has dropped to 49). ENDA has never been voted on before by the Senate although a somewhat similar measure was debated and voted down in the mid-90s as part of the DOMA debate.

    Two Republicans have signed on so far (Collins and Kirk), while Bill Nelson, Tom Carper, Joe Manchin, Jay Rockefeller, Tim Johnson and Mark Pryor are the Democrats not yet on board. I believe Nelson, Carper, Rockefeller and Johnson would eventually vote for cloture on the measure. Manchin and Pryor are probable no votes.

    To get to 60 votes will be a struggle. What other Republicans will vote for ENDA? Murkowski and Portman will probably vote yes. Who's left Toomey, Chiesa, Burr, Heller, Flake, McCain, Hoeven, Ayotte, Fischer????? Most are probably no votes, but Richard Burr surprised just about everyone (and probably himself) when he voted for the DADT repeal. It seems like a long shot, but its a necessary vote to take.

    LINK

    Senate Co-sponsors

    Of course, ENDA will never become law in any form whatsoever if the House of Representatives is controlled by the Republican party (next week they're voting on a nationwide abortion ban after 20 weeks! What happened to the focus on jobs?). And only 3 republicans have cosponsored the house version (IRL, Richard Hanna and Charlie Dent) so far.

    How many votes do you think this will get (if and) when it is brought up in the Senate?

  •  Iran update: Reports on twitter that Rouhani (6+ / 0-)

    has more than 50%, according to the Iranian media. Some even saying he has won outright. Probably wont for sure for several hours.

    Obviously, it's hard to say how much will change with a moderate president since Khamenei is still in charge, but certainly we can hope it leads to progress.  

    •  Looks like his own campaign has tweeted (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      they are at 52% with 5.2 million votes counted, confirming news accounts. So his lead could change, for better or worse.

      But there seemed to have been whispers for a few hours that he has won. Supposedly a rival campaign congratulated Rouhani on Facebook.

      Anyway, we'll see how it plays out.

    •  Indeed. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      The Council of Guardians will still be supreme, but the President plays a very important figurehead role it seems.  They also build the cabinet that the Supreme Leader relies on.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 09:56:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can you imagine what would happen... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      If supporters of the president-elect -- assuming he is the president-elect -- take to the streets the moment Ayatollah Khamenei tries to overrule him?

      Of course, if Rouhani is the winner, the fact that Tehran seems to be allowing the result suggests to me that there may be an understanding between Rouhani and Khamenei that the former isn't going to try to do anything radical.

      •  Disraeli, in his diary, said that Rouhani (0+ / 0-)

        is friends with Khamenei, though I may have misread that.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 10:04:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  election results? (0+ / 0-)

      Is there a website where we can follow the vote count?

  •  Jeb Bush hinting at a run for president (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, lordpet8, askew

    Jeez, can you imagine Bush vs. Clinton again? Story here.

  •  Not diary pimping (9+ / 0-)

    but behold, a(n incomplete) list of DKE memes!

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

    by kurykh on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 02:07:44 AM PDT

  •  Iran: Rowhani elected with 53% (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:56:45 AM PDT

  •  NJ Gov: Stockton College: Christie 64-24 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Darth Jeff

    741 likely voters.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    South Jersey school that usually polls South Jersey legislative and congressional districts.  Usually pretty good, but not too many forays statewide.

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 09:11:58 AM PDT

  •  I'm feeling impatient waiting for (0+ / 0-)

    Utah legislative candidates for next year to start announcing. I know it's really early, and that most of them won't have a chance anyway, but I'd at least like to know who they are. All I know so far is Jim Matheson and Mia Love, but that was a given from Election Day 2012.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 10:46:01 AM PDT

  •  FL-09: article on the "new" Grayson (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.tampabay.com/...

    I've notice ever since his comeback, he's been less brash and I'm your face. He's close to quite. I never hear anything out of the dude. Guy is rearly on TV, if at all.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 01:32:22 PM PDT

  •  Canvassed Terry McAuliffe's house today (20+ / 0-)

    Yes, really.  He was on my walk list, a coordinated one with Delegate/Gov/LG/AG.  I went to his house as my first, it actually made sense geographically to do so.  He, his wife, and their oldest son were on my list.

    I've been to his house for fundraisers, so I knew the place, and sure enough I went to the door!  No one was home, which I realized would have to be the case on a Saturday morning 5 months out.  Maybe if it was Creigh Deeds he would've been there, hanging out in his pajamas, sipping coffee, reading the paper......it wouldn't been any worse than what happened.  But a competent candidate it out and about.

    But still, it would've been cool to catch TMac there and ask him who he would vote for in the Governor's race.  This is a story I can always tell anyway, that McAuliffe himself was on my list!

    My list also included a woman I know as our vice-chair of the local Democratic committee, and an elderly guy and his wife whose house he had on sale 5 years ago when my wife and I were house-hunting and we looked at his place.  The neighborhood included a second house my wife and I seriously considered, but that house wasn't no my walk list (others were on the same street).

    I ran out of lit, which pissed me off because I couldn't finish and this is the 2nd year in a row this is happening, that I'm never being given enough lit to drop at the doors when no one is home.  And since it's a state legislative race where our challenger, Kathleen Murphy, has no name rec, even people who are home are interested in having it as they've never heard of her.

    This was my first day canvassing this year, and I'm planning on going out again next weekend.  This canvassing has been for our local Delegate race but, as I noted above, coordinated walk lists with all races being queried.  I might ask to do my own neighborhood, and take my kids for at least part of it as I like to do to teach them about daddy's politics.  They're usually good for at least a half-hour of walking with me.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 07:11:43 PM PDT

    •  LOL, cool! (6+ / 0-)

      For the sake of your stories, it's too bad he wasn't there. That would have been one for the grandkids.

      Reminds me of when I volunteered for the West Hartford Town Dems in '10 to help get Malloy over the finish line. We called for the whole ticket, so I made sure to reference the new candidate who was running for the state house. Turns out I was calling his family's home! His wife assured me they would definitely be voting for him - and no, they didn't need a ride to the polls. :)

    •  too bad he wasn't home (9+ / 0-)

      guess you'll never know who he's voting for now.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:13:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Awesome. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      What's canvasing like months ahead of election day?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:20:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cause it's my impression (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        that people are pretty turned off to it all until later.  How was your reception to canvasing?

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:38:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your impression is correct (5+ / 0-)

          These were Dems and Dem-leaners on my list, they're targeting low-hanging fruit at least for now.  The field guy, who I worked with last year, too, when he was a local OFA field guy, said there are some persuadables, but mostly the friendlier of the usual suspects.

          And even most of these loyal Dems said they haven't given the election one whit of thought.  But when pushed, they said they vote Democratic as a rule.  So I found myself a bit torn whether to mark them as 1s, 2s, or 3s, but I based it on how strongly partisan they seemed based on what they said.  Some of them made clear they would vote Democratic even if they initially weren't willing to commit to our candidates by name, and some them hedged more.  There are plenty of good Democrats who don't want to promise to vote for someone they haven't even Googled or bothered to read about in WaPo yet, but are certain to do so as long as they don't find anything appallingly bad about them.  This would be if we nominated some weird lefty version of E.W. Jackson, that's what it would take to lose these people.  But Democrats never nominate anyone like that, since we're a center-left coalition, much more ideologically diverse than the GOP.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 07:11:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Carville was once on my canvas list (5+ / 0-)

      I ran into him before I got to his house.  He'd already voted but I got his autograph on our campaign lit.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:57:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's what we call a 1. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, DCCyclone, KingofSpades

      (assuming 1 means "Strong Dem" for the gov. race.)

      But my closest brush with something like that was on the Lower East Side (for a Congressional primary), getting Sheldon Silver's apartment. It was in the heavily Orthodox section, which before I went down there for our campaign I didn't know still existed in Manhattan. I couldn't really blame him for not being there; it seemed like kind of a drab place.

      (And by the way, as someone who used to do vol recruitment for such things, I LOVE it when people post reportbacks of their time volunteering for candidates. Not only does it give me a look into how other campaigns do things, and how they're perceived by the volunteers. For example, the "not enough lit" thing surprised me, but I remembered low level campaigns take lit a lot more seriously than any of the ones I worked for directly; probably a function of the fact that lit matters more for them and they have less money to spend on it.)

      Keep cool; never freeze. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05/NY-?? - Oh, how I missed you, pizza | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:10:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Same system everywhere (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        Yes, I put the McAuliffes all down as 1s even though no one was home.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 07:24:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Manhattan apts always did seem drab to me. (0+ / 0-)

        A cousin of my dad's lives a quarter block from Central Park in a lovely flat, but outside of her lively home (decked out with modern and retro art) it feels drab and old.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 11:14:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We've been out canvassing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, DCCyclone, itskevin

      For a month and a half now, I like that we're out early and trying to set ourselves up for decent margins in SWVA.

      •  Where are you out there? (0+ / 0-)

        Yeah, canvassing started quite awhile ago, but I wasn't able to do it earlier.  I've been the PTA Treasurer at my daughter's elementary school and that's been a hellish time suck.  But I'll be all done with that later this summer.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 07:32:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've spent some time throughout the state (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, gabjoh, DCCyclone, James Allen

          I've helped two FOs canvass in Blacksburg and Bristol, and then spent a few weekends on the coast. It looks like they're really trying to build excitement in SW in hopes of producing a respectable margin.

          •  I wonder what "respectable" is to TMac & Co.? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, skibum59

            I'm going to assume we lose all the western jursidictions from now on aside from the few Democratic pockets, mostly in the small cities that have black voters and a few white liberals.

            I can't emphasize enough how different this is from 4 years ago.  Deeds was invisible even into Labor Day.  And the state party is useless, Charnielle Herring hasn't done any better than Brian Moran.  But TMac knows how to do basic campaign mechanics and is carrying everyone, which is what we need every time to have a chance to win since we have no permanent competent statewide infrastructure beyond the VAN online which of course is a national system.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 07:00:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Good luck in SWVA (0+ / 0-)

        I worked there last year and it's not easy territory to crack.  

        I was based in Abingdon, but was the field director for the 9th district.

  •  MA-SEN: Markey leads 54-43 in new (10+ / 0-)

    Boston Globe poll.

    When they didnt push leaners, the lead was 54-41.

    By this point in 2010, I think Brown was leading a couple of polls, so if the dynamics of the race dont change looks like a solid Markey win.

    I've said before, in terms of expectations management, I think GOP really wants a Markey win under 8 points(Warren's margin in 2012).

    link

    508 LV, June 11-14.

  •  MT-Sen: Schweitzer laying the groundwork (16+ / 0-)

    he's spoken to DC labor and conservation groups and even some Baucus donors:
    http://www.ravallirepublic.com/...
    This was posted by his FB page.

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:42:19 PM PDT

    •  Great (0+ / 0-)

      He's running then.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 08:48:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He sounded on Friday like he's still (0+ / 0-)

        thinking through it, but yeah, he's seriously winding up for it.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 09:08:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He already ran for Senate once... (8+ / 0-)

          ...in 2000 against Burns, and barely lost.  That was before he ever ran for Governor.

          So it's something he's wanted for himself before.

          And therefore more reason to think he'll go for it now, when the path is clear.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 07:01:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bythesea

            though I wish he wasn't so coy.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 07:55:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Do you think his running (0+ / 0-)

            would dissuade any stronger Republicans from running?

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 09:25:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  absolutely (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone

              he's too popular for any of them to beat. Or for most to come within 10 points of, probably.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 10:37:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, for instance (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, DCCyclone

                Denny Rehberg said he'd run if the conditions were "right." Obviously, Schweitzer running would not be part of that.

                "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 10:40:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think he's stronger than Rounds is. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  And I expect Rounds to win comfortably. I don't expect Schweitzer to win by the same margin, but probably a margin that is still relatively good given that Montana is Republican-leaning.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 01:32:57 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Agree (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                Schweitzer would be unbeatable, and most importantly the national and state GOP know that.

                In fact he'd be stronger than Baucus running for reelection.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 08:01:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, that's why I wasn't upset (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, gabjoh

                  when Baucus called it quits.  Internal leaks saying that Schweitzer was definitely considering it very strongly more than offset that.  I knew that Schweitzer would be much harder to beat so this was going to be both a political and electoral upgrade.

                  "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                  by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 08:10:20 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  MY TURN (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, BeninSC, Tayya, bythesea, gabjoh

    Favorite/Least Dem Gov
    Jerry Brown-CA (That was a very fast turnaround.)
    Pat Quinn-IL (Completely inefficient)

    Favorite/Least Rep Gov
    Chris Christie (Why do Republicans not take notes from him?)
    Rick Scott-FL (Do I really need to add an explanation?)

    Favorite/Least Dem Senators
    Mary Landrieu-LA (I don't agree with all she's doing, but I feel that she truly stands up for her state despite the party majority)/Manchin, Franken and Warren deserve honorable mentions here.
    Harry Reid-NV (Just go. Just leave.)

    Favorite/Least Rep Senators
    John McCain-AZ (I like how he stands up to the Tea Party on a regular basis). Kudos also goes to Murkowski for defeating a TP as a write-in.
    Ted Cruz-TX (He completely embarrasses the state of Texas and has been completely out of line in his first few months in Congress.)

    Favorite/Least Dem Reps
    Lloyd Doggett-TX (Now this man, this man is a true representative of being liberal and I laugh at the fact that, no matter how much they try, the legislature can never get rid of him.)
    Sheila Jackson Lee-TX (On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have a rep who, like most minority Democrats in Texas, worked with Republicans to create gerrymandered districts just for the sake of being elected.)

    Favorite/Least Republican Reps
    Ileana Ros-Lehtinen-FL (I just am in love with this Floridian woman. Conservative without being obstructive. Did I mention that I love her?)
    Jim Sensenbrenner-WI (Has been a complete hypocrite regarding the NSA scandal.)

  •  Ann Callis launches Twitter account (5+ / 0-)

    She just joined Twitter, only has 27 followers so I thought I'd help her out by throwing it out there.

    https://twitter.com/...

    My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com My new Twitter: @RushHolt4Senate

    by RVKU on Sat Jun 15, 2013 at 09:37:03 PM PDT

    •  She has an excellent chance to win. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      Currently, I rate that our third most likely pickup after CA-31 and CO-6.

      I'd put it right ahead of FL-2 (Southerland), NY-11 (Grimm), and NY-19 (Gibson).

      22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Hoping for Richard Cordray or Ted Strickland for OH-Gov 2014.

      by liberal intellectual on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 05:24:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Those are definitely our top pickup options (0+ / 0-)

        I'd also include Valadao just after FL-2, but before NY-11. I'd put NY-19 before NY-11, though, as well:

        CA-31 (Aguilar or Baca)
        CO-6 (Romanoff)
        IL-13 (Callis)
        FL-2 (Graham)
        CA-21
        NY-19 (Eldridge)
        NY-11 (Recchia)

        I'd also add that those are probably our only legitimate pick-up options with a few more "potentials" scattered throughout the country, like NY-23, CA-10, and CA-25 among very few others. This list encompasses the only seats where we've gotten good or exceptional recruits (or where Republicans will just have a hard time period).

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 11:11:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Don't forget NE-02 (0+ / 0-)

          I think we could win that one with some money behind a credible campaign, considering how close underfunded and DCCC-snubbed John Ewing came to knocking off Rep. Terry last year.

          •  Disagree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, skibum59, ehstronghold

            That's pretty far beneath the targets listed above, and not only that: we do not have a credible announced candidate yet.

            Keep in mind that this is a midterm, and that this district will be much harder in a midterm.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:24:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree with your reasoning (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              but by that same logic why would CA-21 be so high up on the list? Nobody seems interested in running and our turnout plummets here in everything other than presidential elections. My guess right now is that Valadao wins by a decent amount, then gets destroyed by someone in 2016 when our presidential ticket wins the district by 15-20 points.

              •  Because for all the turnout loss (0+ / 0-)

                That district is still D+2 and was won by Obama both cycles. Obama improved voer 2008 from 53.63 to 55.65.

                NE-2 went from R+3 to R+6 and is R+4 overall, which is really out of contention in a midterm.

                Valadao only appears to be a strong incumbent because of his performance against perhaps the weakest Democratic candidate in a district which we should be winning. I doubt that he's actually as strong as that appearance.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 01:24:01 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Who do we have to run against Valadao? (0+ / 0-)

                  I haven't heard any candidate names mentioned yet.

                  22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Hoping for Richard Cordray or Ted Strickland for OH-Gov 2014.

                  by liberal intellectual on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 01:25:34 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think he's a strong incumbent at all (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca

                  I just think the midterm effect is magnitudes worse here than in NE-02 as we saw in 2010 when all of 90,000 people voted and Jim Costa, a Blue Dog who had cruised in every election prior won by just 3.5% despite not being a top tier target. Yes I know it won't be a 2010 repeat, but that was a much bluer district and it's still a midterm against a Republican incumbent. For now there seems little indication of any local Democrats being interested and I'm not getting my hopes up for flipping it this cycle, but there's no way in hell Valadao wins a D+8 district in 2016.

                  •  But that's just the thing (0+ / 0-)

                    If the district is on track to be D+8 in 2016, then it will be at least D+4 in the 2014 midterm... which is was in 2012, but with further trending demographically, even with drop-off it should realistically be maintained at D+4 in a neutral cycle (which this is almost certainly shaping up to be).

                    I think that what we're both saying aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. This seat is by all accounts one of the best pickup opportunities out there, but at the same time it isn't an exceptionally good pick-up opportunity (the only one of those that exists is CA-31). That speaks to the very few opportunities that we currently have, not to the strength of the few opportunities that we have.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 01:48:08 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Detroit Mayoral frontrunner removed from ballot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MetroGnome

    Mike Duggan, one of the two leading candidates to be Detroit's next mayor (and the man who would be it's first white mayor in decades) was removed from the ballot by a Wayne County judge.  The judge found that Duggan had not been a Detroit resident long enough to run.

    There's still a long way to go with this though.  Duggan is appealing the verdict and trying to get the state Supreme Court to reverse the decision.  

    If Duggan is successful he'd still face a tough fight from Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon.  What little polling there's been shows a close match-up between the two, with other candidates like State Representatives Fred Durhal, Jr. and John Olumba, former State Representative Lisa Howze, former city attorney Krystal Crittendon, and former Detroit Public Schools Superintendent John Telford afterthoughts so far.  If Duggan remains off the ballot, it would seem that this is Napoleon's for the taking (whether the new mayor will have any real power with the Emergency Manager in charge is another story).

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 01:11:15 AM PDT

    •  My take (0+ / 0-)

      My guess is that he'll get back on the ballot (I hope so).  It actually came as a shock that he was pushed off the ballot.  I suspect either the Appeals court of the Supreme court will put him back on, but you never know.  I've come to learn that you never assume anything in Detroit politics.  This was actually pretty shocking as it seems that he abided by the spirit of the law.  I'm really hoping Benny gets his ass handed to him.  Quickly frankly he's a racist (as is Tom Barrow), and I'm tired of the racial politics in this town and the insidious rhetoric.  

      The good thing is that each has been trading the lead in the handful of polls done on the race.  Another interesting thing shown is that in what will be an inevitable run-off, all of the rest of the votes for the lower-tiered candidates don't automatically go to Benny.  

      BTW, the EM is there for 18 months before the city gets to decided what they wanted to do (continue an EM, consent agreement, etc...).  So, while the mayor will largely be ceremonial for the first year or so of his first term, the mayor could actually end up being consequential after that.

  •  AR 4: State Senator Bobby Pierce considering run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, James Allen

    With Cotton expected to challenge Pryor.

    http://www.thecitywire.com/...

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 03:00:04 AM PDT

    •  The article doesn't say it's expected (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin

      just that it's possible.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 07:54:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Everyone expects it to happen now (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Darth Jeff, DCCyclone

        That is the conventional wisdom in the Arkansas media.

        If Bobby Pierce can raise money, he'll be an adequate candidate. He is Gene Jeffress's direct successor in the State Senate. He ran about 15 points ahead of Obama in his State Senate election in 2012.

        •  If Rep. Cotton does run... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, skibum59

          Sen. Pryor is definitely the most endangered Democratic incumbent of 2014, except for maybe Gov. Chafee.

          It's good that Democrats are looking strong in Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska, and Montana, because I have a feeling we can't keep South Dakota, West Virginia, or Arkansas. Having longshot pickup opportunities in Georgia, Kentucky, and Maine (if Sen. Collins retires or does something really stupid) helps as well.

          •  Cotton or not (5+ / 0-)

            I figure Pryor is the most likely to lose. But he'll probanly put up more of a fight than Blanche. Nevertheless, Republicans still need a further three seats provided MA and NJ go as expected. The tea leaves seem positive on Schweitzer so it depends on a sweep of AK, LA and NC, probably in that order. I would say control tilts Democratic as of today.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:56:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think he'll definitely put up much more a fight (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, SaoMagnifico, skibum59

              and isn't nearly as caught off guard as she was.  That said, yeah, I think he's most likely to lose (50/50 if Cotton runs as the statewide races could go pretty well for Dems) with Begich in second.  I definitely think Schweitzer will run and Grimes will likely run in KY, which should make it Lean R.

              "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 04:25:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I'm nowhere near as pessimistic (5+ / 0-)

              Pryor is not Blanche Lincoln.  The Pryor name has a deep tradition in the state.  He won't be facing a primary challenge.  Cotton is a freshman congressman.

              I give the edge to Pryor.

              http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

              by Paleo on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 06:03:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Cotton (0+ / 0-)

      I don't really know much about Arkansas politics, anymore, but from what little I've seen of Tom Cotton on television, this guy is dumb as a box of rocks.  It would hurt my soul to see this guy take that seat.

      From his campaign facebook page:

      Tom Cotton is a candidate for Arkansas's Fourth Congressional District who will fight to repeal ObamaCare, cut spending, reduce taxes, and protect our Arkansas values.
      Protect "our Arkansas values" from what?  Progress?  The 21st Century?  Honestly, I've learned to begrudingly accept this type of bull from Southern old-timers, but I'll never except this crap from the youger ones.  In this age of ridiculous connectivity, there are fewer and fewer excuse for this, anymore, no more excuse for prideful and willful ignorance.  I'm tired of this.
      •  He may be the most overrated (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GradyDem, KingofSpades

        new member of Congress.  Less than half a year into his first term, and yet some are already figuratively appointing him senator and murmuring about a presidential run.

        There was a long feature about him in Politico recently which talked a lot about his foreign policy views, which appear to be that Bush 43 and Cheney weren't hawkish enough.  Not a particularly easy sell to a national general electorate, whether some in the Washington press corps or Arkansas might think of it.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 08:15:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Cotton is extremely intelligent (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, LordMike, skibum59

        That is why he is so dangerous. He is great at manipulating language like "protect our Arkansas values."

        That said, he has cast quite a few weird votes in the last few months that Pryor can hit him on. He is definitely not as perfect as the Arkansas media makes him out to be.

        •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

          If he's extremely intelligent, that does make him scarier and outsting him more difficult.  I'll tell you, if he's as smart as you say he is, then he should have gotten an Emmy along with his congressional seat, because he doesn't exactly come across as a highly intelligent man on television.

        •  It is in our interest to keep Pryor's seat (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, skibum59

          If nothing else to keep Tom Cotton out and damage his career. "Rising stars" should always be stifled.

          Sure, the generational shift will come anyways, but the other young Republicans - Schock et al - are not as touted for President as Cotton appears to be.

          19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

          by Tayya on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 01:19:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Politico's uber-fail (15+ / 0-)
    Another factor driving the change is an increasing number of Hispanic legislators, particularly in Nevada and Colorado. Nevada Senate Majority Leader Mo Denis, the chamber’s first Hispanic leader, repeatedly introduced driver’s license legislation only to watch it languish. That changed as the electorate sent more Latinos to Reno.
    http://www.politico.com/...

    Anybody in my 5th grade class could have told you Carson City is the capital, not Reno.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 10:04:46 AM PDT

  •  CA Dems exercise 2/3rds power: (10+ / 0-)

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 10:42:39 AM PDT

    •  This (9+ / 0-)

      budget also shows what happens when adults like Jerry Brown are in charge of state government.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:27:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, but it bugs me (0+ / 0-)

        that the morons at the Howard Jarvis Institute think it's a bad thing to let people VOTE on lowering the threshold to pass municipal bonds.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 04:21:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  On second thought (0+ / 0-)

          The Howard Jarvis group was irrational on taxes (even if put up to a vote) before it was cool.

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 05:19:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nassau County Executive Race, 2013 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Anyone following this race? It's a rematch between the current executive Ed Mangano(R) and former executive Tom Suozzi(D).

    Suozzi was a considered a rising star before losing to Mangano in 2009. The loss was narrow, but very surprising. I think many felt Suozzi was caught off guard, perhaps looking at higher office. Mangano's win was one of the earliest tea party victories too.

    Do Dems have a chance of winning back this seat this year?

    •  It is Nassau County (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades

      so I'm 90% sure it can't be worse than Tilt R. I think I might have a friend working on the race...

      Keep cool; never freeze. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05/NY-?? - Oh, how I missed you, pizza | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:17:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Any other county Exec races of note in NY state? (0+ / 0-)

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 04:27:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well (6+ / 0-)

      last time I checked Mangano managed to wreck the county finances enough to have the state have to intervene so I assume Suozzi has a good chance. But the takeover happened in 2011 so I don't know what's happened since then.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 12:19:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Definitely. (0+ / 0-)

      Mangano fucked up the county with his fiscal conservatism that he was forced to let state government throw the county a loop.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 04:26:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is an under-the-radar bellwether to me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, SaoMagnifico, jncca

      It won't get national attention, but we need Suozzi to win this.  It would be more telling about 2014 than NJ-Gov or any special election.  This loss in 2009 as a bad omen for 2010.  This and VA-Gov are big ones for us.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 08:47:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting article on GOP and Hispanics (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    about whether supporting immigration reform will really help the GOP with Hispanic voters. (spoiler: it's basically "inconclusive")  It uses numbers 'n stuff so I figured ya'll would like it.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 11:25:40 AM PDT

  •  Can anyone direct me to polling results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    concerning the popularity of things such as Medicare, the VA Hospitals, and Single Payer as a concept? I'm assuming the first two are wildly popular while the last one probably draws a "huh, what's that?" while 'socialized medicine' (aka the VA) is quite unpopular. I'm guessing that maybe the Kaiser Foundation or Pew has decent results on this, but I don't know how old they might be (pre-2010 is probably worthless).

    Also random aside on California, but it's awesome that state Democrats are actually trying to curtail some of Prop 13's horrible effects and that the Assembly already passed the bill to lower the bond referendum from 2/3rds to 55% for local governments. If only they could repeal Prop 13 entirely, the state could be made the very best in the nation in terms of quality of life. I was recently out there visiting family and it's always amazing how nice the weather is and how awesome the produce is year round. If it weren't ungodly expensive I'd apply to graduate school there in a heartbeat.

    •  law schools in California, even middling ones (0+ / 0-)

      are as expensive as the best in the country, or even more. That's why I didn't even consider them.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 01:39:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tell me about it (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, James Allen, Audrid, skibum59

        My brother and his wife went to UC Davis out of state and it had gone up to about 50k a year when they finished I believe. Unless you're going to graduate near the top of your class or practice corporate law right out of school and work 70-80 hours a week (which is insane) to make $160k why would that ever make sense? Compared to basically doing this for a living of being a political activist, elections nerd and teaching students about them while maybe making money selling books I wrote,  law school at that price was wholly unappealing as a way to get involved in politics. I can't ever see myself getting elected to office so why bother with the law degree...

  •  Minneapolis mayor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, SaoMagnifico

    There was no official endorsement last night. All the candidates are going on to November. This will be the first real big test of IRV (RCV). There are likely to be 7 serious candidates on the ballot.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 04:01:04 PM PDT

  •  Site Error (0+ / 0-)

    Are the pages not fully loading for anyone else, at the moment?

  •  AR-LG: Burkhalter and Ross endorse each other (3+ / 0-)

    I don't know if I posted this since I've been away for so long but John Burkhalter is running for Lieutenant Governor. Burkhalter is very conservative. Mike Ross just endorsed him - this is good. It should minimize the amount of crossover between Governor and Lieutenant Governor, something that was a problem in 2010.

    http://talkbusiness.net/...

    •  Wasn't Burkhalter the guy (0+ / 0-)

      who was previously running for Gov before regular Halter and Ross got in?  Is he strong enough and how conservative is he (just an example)?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 16, 2013 at 10:38:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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