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The Supreme Court didn't overturn the whole of the Defense of Marriage Act, focusing rather narrowly on the question before it: could federal benefits be denied to same-sex spouses. But states are still free to refuse to recognize marriages granted in the thirteen states and D.C. where there is marriage equality. That's where the big fight now turns.
Now the two sides of the marriage wars are gearing up to resume the costly state-by-state battles that could, in the hopes of each, spread marriage equality to several more states in the next few years, or reveal a brick wall of values that cannot be breached. There is wide agreement from both sides on where the next battlefields will be.

Proponents of same-sex marriage were already energized by victories in six states over the last year, bringing the total number authorizing such unions to 12 states, before California, and the District of Columbia. They are hoping for legislative victories this fall or next spring in Illinois and possibly New Jersey and Hawaii.

Twenty-nine states—not including California—have constitutional amendments defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Some advocates expect that in the November 2014 elections, Oregon and perhaps Nevada or Ohio could become the first states to undo their amendments. At the same time, a court case in New Mexico could extend marriage rights. [...]

“These court decisions could be a real boon to our fund-raising,” said Frank Schubert, a conservative political consultant and vice president of the National Organization for Marriage. “People tend to react when the wolf is at the door.”

Goal Thermometer
Energized by the desire to discriminate, NOM will definitely use these decisions to rake in as much money as possible. The good news is that all their hate-fueled money can't do anything to stop the fact that public opinion is rapidly changing, that the majority of people in America aren't threatened by thought of every American sharing the same fundamental rights as every other American.

That doesn't mean, though, that we don't need to keep countering NOM and the other marriage bigots in every state, but particularly those where it's going to be on the ballot. Right now, the early effort is in Oregon where overturning the state's constitutional amendment—adopted by popular vote in 2004—will be on the 2014 ballot. Every dollar Oregon United for Marriage raises now will be a dollar spent to buttress against the very big money NOM will pour into the state.

Please contribute now to Oregon United for Marriage to help organize for 2014.

Originally posted to Joan McCarter on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:13 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (15+ / 0-)

    "The NSA’s capability at any time could be turned around on the American people, and no American would have any privacy left, such is the capability to monitor everything. [...] There would be no place to hide."--Frank Church

    by Joan McCarter on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:13:01 AM PDT

  •  IL, NM (4+ / 0-)

    definitely.  I'm nowhere near enough of a political wonk to tell you where to go after that.

    Pennsylvania?  (feels ground)  Hell hasn't frozen over yet even though the maps imply it's a logical choice.  Maybe in 2015 or 2016.  At least any state-wide Constitutional amendment wouldn't go anywhere now, and I wouldn't give us a high probability of passing a national amendment.

    (-6.38, -7.03) Moderate left, moderate libertarian

    by Lonely Liberal in PA on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:31:02 AM PDT

    •  Here's Rich Miller's take on IL (2+ / 0-)

      Rich Miller runs the Capitol Fax Blog -- an indispensable site for those following Illinois politics. Here's his column, which ran in today's Chicago Sun-Times: Boo the Opposition, Not Your Friends.

      It'll happen here, but marriage equality's lead House sponsors will have to be much smarter than they were in the spring session.

      •  Married in Las Vegas (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        alwaysquestion

        We live in Michigan.  Michigan accepts our marriage as legal as does all the other states.  Won't that be the same for gay couples?  If they get married in CA and then move to Michigan won't they still be married in the eyes of the law?  If so, marriage equality is now throughout the land.
        What am I missing?

        •  Marriage equality = same sex marriage (0+ / 0-)

          I'm referring to the bill that would legalize same sex marriage in Illinois. It was approved by our state Senate on Feb. 14, but then stalled in the House just before the end-of-session deadline. Gov Patrick Quinn has promised to sign it as soon as the bill reaches his desk.

          Whether you call it marriage equality or same sex marriage, it'll be legalized in Illinois. Hopefully before the U.S. Supreme Court takes up the question you're raising.

        •  Married in the eyes of the federal government (0+ / 0-)

          but NOT married in the eyes of the Michigan state government.  No state has to recognize a same-sex marriage performed in another state.  That's the part of DOMA that wasn't struck down (it wasn't challenged in the case that went to SCOTUS this year).

  •  Forget NOM -- focus on our own party (4+ / 0-)

    NOM is a sideshow.  I want to focus on those Ratfucking Democrats who keep voting against Marriage Equality in states with a strong Democratic Majority.

    We have a new Dixicrat wing in our party... we should call them the "Homocrats".  They call themselves Democrats but refuse to vote for Marriage Equality.  We saw this in Illinois, and Rhode Island.  Until we either get these guys on board, or replace them, it is going to be a slow slog indeed, regardless of public opinion.

    Minority rights should never be subject to majority vote.

    by lostboyjim on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:31:21 AM PDT

  •  Another Key Tactic: Tie Them To The GOP (4+ / 0-)

    Both the bigots and the party will make it easy, despite the efforts of the more savvy people in party leadership to jettison that particular albatross.

    On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

    by stevemb on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:48:46 AM PDT

  •  There's a state senator in Alabama (3+ / 0-)

    who is working to change the law there.
    http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/...

    "Labor was the first price, the original purchase - money that was paid for all things" -- Adam Smith

    by HugoDog on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:58:48 AM PDT

  •  International Couples (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge, bythesea

    Is it now possible for a non-US citizen who marries a same sex spouse in a state with marriage-for-all to stay in the US with the same rights that mixed-sex couples have?

    •  Probably, but we'll need much more (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dave in Northridge

      guidance.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:11:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes. (0+ / 0-)

      The only question is whether that's still true if the couple resides in an anti-equality state (but it likely will still apply).

    •  The first such court case was in progress (0+ / 0-)

      when the decision was announced. The spouse was in a deportation hearing in Federal court in NYC when a courier ran in with a dead-tree copy of the decision. Featured on Rachel Maddow.

      The Supreme Court does not release PDFs of decisions. Tom Goldman of SCOTUSblog claims that SCOTUS is working hard to enter the 19th century.

      The decision grants Federal marriage rights to same-sex couples, and 13 states plus DC agree on offering full state or local marriage rights. But if they live in or visit one of the 36 states which ban gay marriages, they do not get state marriage rights while there. Some states will recognize their marriage as equivalent to their own civil unions, and grant some rights. (Note: New Mexico is the only state that neither bans nor supports gay marriages.)

      That will be the very next case that the movement pushes upward to SCOTUS, while the state-by-state battles continue. Scalia has predicted that the DOMA decision means that the Court is planning to grant marriage equality everywhere, and is only waiting for a case to "ripen" in order to do so. He predicted ten years ago that the court would strike down DOMA, in a dissent in a "sodomy" case.

      This is the only issue that I know of where I want Scalia to be rightcorrect.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 01:30:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  All the coverage saying "DOMA overturned" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007, Dave in Northridge, RichM

    is a little frustrating that way.  We need accuracy:  FEDERAL provisions of DOMA overturned.   After all, there's no legislation that I know of that explicitly authorizes or encourages states to decline to recognize "regular" marriage solemnized in certain other states.  

    But, the dam is breached now, and the waters will pour through the crack and become a torrent.

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:03:30 AM PDT

  •  Michigan 2004 gay rights ban (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge, evilstorm

    looks like if we took another vote, we could flip the 2004 vote a mere 10 years later.  Hope this can be done.  The thing that will be so evident is that our MI population can poll to have over 50% support for gay rights http://www.equalitymi.org/...
    and have a legislature that is so conservative.  Shows gerrymandering in MI.  Same for women's reproductive rights.

    Fine if we have to go state by state.  Not optimal, but fine.  One way or another, get the job done.  The country is so backwards for so many things.  So many injustices.  This one change to sweep a nation one state at a time will be uplifting when we finally get to 50.

  •  Its the Economy Stupid!! (0+ / 0-)

    We are closing in on a demographic tipping point where more than half of all Americans will live in equality states.  I predict those states that embrace marriage equality will also experience better economic growth than non-equal states.

    It is a well know FACT that education drives economic growth.  Better education generates better paying jobs.  As people move up the wage scale they consume more and that in turn generates even more economic activity.  

    Marriage equality is like investing in infrastructure - the pay off is years away but when it happens it is exponential, not linear.  On the flip side, it could take decades for "non-equal" states to recover even after they change.  And when you combine the backwards policies in health care, women's rights, infrastructure and education that normally follow in non-equality states the economic impact 10-15 years form now is going to be dramatic.  

    Look at last years election map.  15 years form now the blue states will be where the GOOD jobs are and the Red States will be manual labor.

    It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

    by ksuwildkat on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:14:36 AM PDT

    •  Easy when it's not YOUR civil rights (0+ / 0-)

      Structurally you may be correct but this is not an issue where we all get to think with our heads. It's visceral for some of us.

      I'm not going to go back to look at your comments in gun diaries but I have a feeling where you'll come out on those too. Not now. Infrastructure.

      -7.75, -8.10; . . . Columbine, Tucson, Aurora, Sandy Hook, Boston (h/t Charles Pierce)

      by Dave in Northridge on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:43:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ???? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dave in Northridge

        Maybe you misunderstood what I was saying - States that embrace equality will be rewarded with well educated high earners moving there.  States that reject it - and sadly many will until the bitter end - will be punished by a brain drain.

        Despite Prop 8 California is decades ahead of many states because same sex partner benefits have been the norm at many large companies for a long time.  I wish I could say they all did it to be on the right side of history but the truth is they did it to compete.  Any Silicone Valley company that failed to offer same sex partner benefits was going to miss out on a lot of talent they needed.

        As mentioned below the wedding industry is going to get an immediate boost and since we are talking additional weddings vs a zero sum situation, its an even bigger impact.  Real estate, large appliance, everything that is part of making a home will get a boost.  

        All of that is good.  And its good because it means people are happy.  Happy because they can be open and honest.  

        As for guns - and I dont know how this even matters - I am a gun owner who is pro registration, pro restrictions on ownership and absolutely pro magazine limits.  If it takes you more than 3 rounds you need to go to the range and learn to shoot.  And anyone thinking their little personal arsenal could really stop the federal government from "coming for their guns" is stupid.

        It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

        by ksuwildkat on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 02:36:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The economic impact will be felt immediately (0+ / 0-)

      in the wedding industry. Gay weddings will be all over TV, in the newspapers, on YouTube, everywhere.

      Immediately after that, the impact will be felt via insurance, Social Security, Medicare, military housing, and much more in every state where Federal employees get moved to, and every state where people are now planning out-of-state weddings.

      My cousin Alexa and her partner have let it be known since the decision that they are going somewhere outside Indiana to get married. They own a catering company, and the reception back home is going to be fabulous.

      The number of out gay married couples is going to skyrocket in every state, now that the Feds are ready to provide real money benefits. The number demanding rights from recalcitrant states, and joining in lawsuits, likewise.

      As to your sig, Lee was in several important respects a consummate jerk. It is precisely because war is so terrible that people like it. What else is there to like about it? See also Stephen Crane, War is Kind and Other Poems.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 01:48:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Tyrants have decided upon a strategy of delay. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge

    You can see that in the Roberts decision to punt on the merits  in Prop 8.  You see it it the Court's decision to not grant review in Nevada.  Would be interesting to see who is in the lineup to decide which cases to review.  BEcause it is hard to see how you get 5 justices to sign up for any measure which violates the 5th and the 14th in light of DOMA.  SO it is to be delay, delay, delay in the courts and in the legislatures.  THey are going to drag this out as long as humanly possible.  BUt in the end it is also difficult to see the court wanting to adjudicate this in 35 states.  SO they will probably take one or two states to set the template and overturn its ban.  Then it may decide for an entire circuit and then for the entire US.  That is about the best timeline we can hope for now.  But each day with our  rights just out of reach is excruciating.

    GOP Wars against: Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Immigrants, Mexicans, Blacks, Gays, Women, Unions, Workers, Unemployed, Voters, Elderly, Kids, Poor, Sick, Disabled, Dying, Lovers, Kindness, Rationalism, Science, Sanity, Reality.

    by SGWM on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:16:26 AM PDT

    •  Nevada... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HugoDog, bythesea

      Is absolutely stupid for not having marriage equality.  They have been on the cutting edge of marriage law - and have profited handsomely as a result.  Now they are going to fall behind California.  Stupid.

      'Where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost' - Ronald Reagan, Communist

      by RichM on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:14:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IMHO the weasly SCOTUS decision (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge, Utahrd

    totally wreaks of a scam to keep a whole bunch of lawyers busy for the foreseeable future.

    Not that I'm at all cynical about that highly useless part of the US government or anything like that!

  •  a few thoughts (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge, bythesea

    1.a 38 state front will deplete NOM'd dwindling resources by spreading out their funds to defend it all...38 fires to put out.
    2. Gay groups in the battle states should also talk to the Pot Initiative people in those states to get pot on the ballot in as many states as possible.. this will get more liberal people to the polls in those states....
    3. Ditto for the womens groups. coordinate a planned attack in those Red States.. come at them from all angles..
    4. Ditto for taking on the Voting rights violations with Minority groups.
    Gay Marriage, Women's protections, Legalized Pot, minority voting rights.-all need to coordinate their battle plans depending on which State they are taking on.....
    Perhaps some combo ads to include all of them in one "Coalition"

    •  Except that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      in many states, NOM won't have to lift a finger; they could literally sit out half of those.

      •  In the REAL conservative (0+ / 0-)

        ones start a petition to ban divorce... or define marriage as " the first marriage only, which is the real promise to God". All others have to be defined as civil unions, since they broke their promise to God. Play with their heads, and split them apart LOL....

      •  True as far as holding an election today (0+ / 0-)

        or in 2014, but Nate Silver ran a model when Iowa was the first to grant marriage equality. It says that the public will tip even in Darkest Mississippi, most likely in 2024. Long before that the national legal and political battle will be over. I don't give it more than five years. Not with people in Red states going elsewhere in droves to get married and cash in on some of those 1100+ Federal benefits, and get a wide range of social and family rights, and join in state-level lawsuits for complete equality.

        Nate's model was a linear one, simply extending trends in public opinion that were active at the time. But at every step forward we take, the social and political forces on our side grow stronger at a faster than linear rate, because they are self-reinforcing.

        Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

        by Mokurai on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 02:11:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The numbers here are interesting. (0+ / 0-)

      IIRC, it takes thirty eight states to amend the Constitution. HOWEVER, with California now in, there are thirteen states plus DC who have adopted marriage equality. Leaving only thirty seven. Hmmmmm. That sounds promising.

    •  36 states (0+ / 0-)

      13 have marriage equality now, and New Mexico never banned gay marriage or refused to recognize gay marriage from other states.

      Given the state of the Republican War on Everybody, we should be talking to everybody. There are LGBT Blacks, Latinos, Asians, youth, retirees, union workers, environmentalists, and so on, in every group that Republicans attempt to demonize and oppress. And much to their chagrin, also in every group they attempt to butter up or terrorize with the threat of the rest of us in order to extract money from them.

      There are even businesspeople, such as George Soros and Warren Buffett, who don't want big business wrecking the economy. Adam Smith was quite forceful on this point.

      Everything for ourselves, and nothing for other people, seems, in every age of the world, to have been the vile maxim of the masters of mankind.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 02:04:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nevada update for 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave in Northridge, Mokurai

    One of the things the Dems pushed through this last session was putting the question of whether or not to repeal the same-sex marriage ban to a referendum in 2014.

    I really think we might be able to get that ban repealed this go-around!

  •  Reconciled with the 14th Amendment? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    I don't quite fathom how a State can deny the rights of others when the Federal law applies to all. Notwithstanding, these battles in State legislatures will forever mark the Republicans as the backward, contumacious, obstructionist fools they are. History will not look upon them generously. Let's hope history overtakes them sooner than later.  In the meantime, let them speak and remember never to interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.  Apply the Bonaparte Rule.

    •  the "fighting 14th" was a key (0+ / 0-)

      part of Judge Walker's ruling. While that ruling isn't precedent setting in other districts, you can be sure it will be referred to in the flurry of lawsuits that will be coming in the next few years.

      "Labor was the first price, the original purchase - money that was paid for all things" -- Adam Smith

      by HugoDog on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:51:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I laid out the fundamental problem (0+ / 0-)

      in my Diary

      The Constitution as Catch-22

      We have a right to do anything you can't keep us from doing.
      Briefly, it doesn't matter what a Constitution says if all of the available political will and court precedent say that you can't assert those rights. See the entire century of Jim Crow for a particularly blatant set of examples, most notably Plessey v. Ferguson at SCOTUS. You have to create a combination of political forces to counter those other forces, and get courts to say you are right, and even then you get to deal with the deadenders who refuse to abide by the court decisions because they are abominations before God.

      Thus LGBT rights, women's rights, rights of minorities and immigrants…whatever the forces of racism, misogyny, More Guns More!!, Mammonism, and so on can gang up on. Fortunately, they are now clearly in the minority on all of those issues, a steadily shrinking minority. For some time we have had to pry the levers of power from the cold, dead hands of the oldest, angriest, richest, Whitest politicians, pundits, and pseudo-religious leaders in what are now swing states, and put in, as we say here on dKos, More and Better Democrats.

      Now, as you say, we must take Napoleon's advice and follow the Obama mantra:

      Please proceed, Governor.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 02:26:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  good luck with that (0+ / 0-)

    The Court did a real old time carney stunt this week.

    Show them the shiney new toy, whilst pocketing the real valuable goods.

    The repeal of DOMA will mean nothing - in fact, it probably will make life worse for a whole lot of gay Americans.

    Why?

    Because the day before, the Court basically killed the Voting Rights Act.  Since the repeal of DOMA put the power to discriminate in the hands of the states, and the killing voting rights will increase right wing agenda at the state level - guess what?   Those states will likely be (and already are) moving anti-gay legislation into effect.

    •  Firstly, VRA is not dead (0+ / 0-)

      It is in critical condition and will require major surgery. I am not referring to Congressional action, which I do not expect to see. I mean using the bail-in procedure that is still in the law to create a new list of states and counties under preclearance, without reference to the formula SCOTUS struck down.

      Secondly, with Federal benefits now available, a mad rush is already starting for couples in Red states to go elsewhere to get married and then to come home, hold fabulous receptions, and announce it in the papers. My cousin Alexa in Indiana is apparently going to marry her long-time partner somewhere. The Red states have no idea what is about to hit them in the national news and in social media, and just among everybody's friends and families.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 02:34:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes, yes, we will fight the good fight (0+ / 0-)

        however, in the meantime - how many potential voters will be discouraged, intimidated and just stay home?

        How much time, money and energy it take to mount these court challenges?

        Time, money and energy that could be used to champion other issues - stop the fracking, end the wars, etc etc etc.

        Just like the repeal of DOMA will lull some percentage of the liberal base into taking it a little easier, the added hurdles etc sap our organized opposition to the overall corporatist agenda.

        Which, by the way, has plenty of resources and allies to keep pushing on all fronts.

        Yes, it is HARD.  Made harder yet by Obama and his ilk who masquerade as liberal while compromising away the foundations of the nation.

        In case you can't tell, I am sick at heart with the current political landscape.

        Obama had the backing, the optimism the hope and dashed it all.  That is potentially even more destructive than the overt neo-con cabal of the Bush junta.

  •  Always was a state issue. (0+ / 0-)

    Aside what the USSC ruled on, and aside from the "Full faith and credit" aspect that they didn't consider,

    Marriage has always been a state issue. I don't want to sound like a state's-rights emphasizer, but the DOMA was an overreach by Congress from the beginning, They should have left it to the states.

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