Washington State has a bipartisan commission that draws the congressional districts every 10 years. In 2011 they drew a 6-4 map, which is pretty fair since the Dem presidential candidate wins 55-60% of the vote here. While this is the fairest practice, most states don’t have such commissions and the partisan state legislatures draw plenty of maps like the ones I have below. This is a hypothetical scenario which won’t happen because of the way Washington draws its districts.
I have drawn two egregious Democratic gerrymanders. The first one is perhaps what Democrats might draw but the second is a complete bacon-mander, where Seattle gets split 8 times and King County gets split 9 times. I think it’s totally possible to draw a 10-0 Dem map if you ignored all rules, such as COI. I admit I don't know Washington too well but my real objective was only to maximize Democratic strength.
I use 2008 Obama and 2010 Senate numbers.
State View
1st District (blue)
Rick Larson lives and would run here.
58.1% Obama, 52.4% Murray
Safe D
2nd District (green)
Open seat but maybe Reichert would run here
60.6% Obama, 53.2% Murray
Safe D, Likely D with Reichert
3rd District (purple)
Jaime Herrera Beutler lives here. She’s in trouble, as this district cuts out red areas of Clark and Skamania Counties and takes in relatively blue areas east of the Cascades. Her current district was 51% Obama in 2008.
54.1% Obama, 47.9% Murray
Toss Up (maybe Tilt D?)
East Washington
4th District (Red)
The big east Republican vote sink. Doc Hastings lives here, I think. His town of Pasco is actually split between the vote sink and the swingy 5th but he’d run here for sure.
36.2% Obama, 32.7% Murray
Safe R
5th District (Yellow)
Bluer areas of eastern Washington. McMorris Rogers is only 44 and unfortunately would probably survive here but you can’t really draw a safe Dem seat east of the Cascades. In an open seat situation, totally different story.
49.7% Obama/47.8% McCain, 44.7% Murray
Likely R with McMorris Rogers, Toss Up in open seat
West Washington
6th District (Teal)
Derek Kilmer’s district takes in most of western Washington and none of Olympia or Tacoma. Soaks up blood-red Lewis County. Kilmer is fine here but this would be swingy if open. As Kilmer is only 39, there probably won’t be an open seat.
54.4% Obama, 49.8% Murray
Safe D with Kilmer, Toss Up otherwise
Seattle-Tacoma Area
7th (Grey)
Northern Seattle and western suburbs. McDermott is fine.
71.2% Obama, 67.1% Murray
Safe D
8th (slate blue)
DelBene and Reichert both live here and it could be an epic battle but DelBene is the favorite. As I mentioned before, Reichert could run in the 2nd, but that district is still quite blue. Adam Smith lives here but he could run in the 9th.
69.1% Obama, 63.6% Murray
Safe D
9th (Cyan)
Southern Seattle and Tacoma, this is an open seat but Adam Smith represented much of the area before and should run here.
64.0% Obama, 59.1% Murray
Safe D
10th (pink)
Olympia and then dips west and south to pick up very red areas to give us a shot in the 3rd. Denny Heck performed a little better than Obama in the current 10th and I think he’s fine here. It probably leans D in an open seat but given Heck was just first elected, he’s fine here.
54.7% Obama, 50.0% Murray
Safe D with Heck, Lean D otherwise
The map is 7-1-2 in an all-open seat situation. With current incumbents taken into account, it’s 7-2-1.
Part 2 is the Washington State Baconmander. Given how blue and populous King County is, I thought I’d try to do an outrageous gerrymander (moreso than the example above) to give us a good shot at getting a 10-0 map. It appears completely doable. The map assumes any district that is at least 56% Obama in 2008 stands a great chance at being a Dem hold. I also tried to get all districts as close to 50% Murray in 2010. Given it was such a strong Republican year that year and Dino Rossi was probably the best they could put forward (which isn’t saying much!), I think if Murray won or almost won it, Democrats would have a very good chance at holding it. I started with east-west districts that eventually became north-south in order to absorb all the red areas with parts of King County. One district, the 10th, doesn’t go into King County. It’s the only district that Murray lost and Obama won only with 55%. While splitting Seattle I tried to use interstates or major roads as guides to “confine” the districts.
State View
Spokane Area
Central Washington Cities
1st (blue)
56.5% Obama, 50.3% Murray
2nd (green)
56.1% Obama, 51.5% Murray
3rd (purple)
57.0% Obama, 51.8% Murray
4th (red)
56.3% Obama, 50.1% Murray
5th (yellow)
57.0% Obama, 52.1% Murray
Seattle Metro
Inner Seattle
6th (teal)
57.9% Obama, 51.8% Murray
7th (grey)
62.0% Obama, 57.1% Murray
8th (slate blue)
60.8% Obama,56.9% Murray
9th (cyan)
57.9% Obama, 52.8% Murray
Western Washington
10th (pink)
55.4% Obama, 49.7% Murray