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can be seen in The ARIS 2013 National College Student Survey done by Barry A. Kosmin and Ariela Keysar, who are public policy research professors and the authors of the renowned ARIS survey series since 1990.

I received a press release on this several days ago, from which I quote several things:

The surveyed students, ages 18 to 29, attend 38 colleges and universities from across the U.S., including so-called Red and Blue States. Twelve of the institutions are located in the South, 12 in the Northeast, eight in the West and six in the Midwest. Fourteen of the colleges and universities are private; 24 are public. A random sample of emails was taken from each school’s list. The sample is fairly representative of today’s four-year college students. Fifty-nine percent of the respondents were women and 28 percent were members of minority groups, including African Americans, Latinos, Asians and some who described themselves as “other.”

Asked their political party affiliation, 42 percent said they are Democrats, 26 percent said independent and 19 percent said Republican. Thirteen percent said other or don’t know. However, when asked their ideological philosophy, 32 percent identified themselves as liberal, 17 percent said conservative and an identical 17 percent said moderate. Twelve percent said progressive, 6 percent said libertarian and 15 percent said other or don’t know.

In an email exchange with Professor Kosmin, I sought clarification on how students participating were selected.  In the following, TK is my question, BK is his answer:
TK -did the colleges/universities make a selection from their lists of student emails, or did those doing the survey?

BK - WE MADE SELECTION from lists in public domain

TK -What if any procedures were in place to ensure true random selection?

BK - 2 stage - we chose colleges stratified for type & region with lists in public domain We created 4 lists- General, Asian surnames, Hispanic surnames, African-Am surnames True random might need to be random so a trade off.

TK - what refusal rate if any was there among those who were contact?  And did that vary by institution?

BK - Response was remarkably uniform 12-14% across waves - rate based on those opening message.
We had right balance of women & year of study We were more concerned at getting diversity i.e. representativeness- than randomness

BK - These days in most surveys given declining response rates  there's more of a psychological than a demographic skew.

So why do I say the future for Republicans is bleak?  Well, consider some of the results from the survey (below the cheese-doodle):

On question if statement "Economic inequality is a major issue in the U.S, today" is true or not,

    Very True           54.5%
    Somewhat True  30.9%

Remember, most Democrats want to at least acknowledge this, where as any hint of attempting to address is is usually labeled "class warfare" by Republicans

On whether "Woman must defend their reproductive rights"  is true or not

    Very True            53.0%
    Somewhat True   26.9%

We know where the two parties stand on this issue, and the problem is being made worse for Republicans with the bevy of new state legislation restricting choice

Please note a phenomenon - that the distribution of answers that are at least somewhat true on both of these questions versus what you will see as either somewhat or very untrue creates a ratio that is GREATER than the Democratic v Republican or Liberal v Conservative ratios in the sample, so it is NOT being distorted by oversampling of Democratic/Liberal students.   And also remember this - I explained the selection process so that you can see it is a representative sample of students at the institutions surveyed, which include geographic diversity, as well as diversity of types of institutions, from elite liberal arts colleges in the Northeast (for example, my alma mater Haverford) to large state universities in more conservative areas (University of Arkansas, Utah State).

Continuing with some of the results:

On this next I will give the complete distribution:  "Affirmative action in college admissions should be abolished"

Completely Agree       15.0%

Mostly Agree              19.3%                 agreement totals 34.3

Mostly Disagree          24.6%

Completely Disagree   17.1%                 disagreement totals 41.7%

Not Sure                    23.9%

While responses on this are proportionally closer to the Democrat/Republican and Liberal/Conservative ratios,   this is an issue that still demonstrate that despite the heavily white percentage of respondents is not conducive to the ways Republicans have been addressing issues of race and immigration.

And in case you are wondering about how many college students want to follow the thinking of the likes of Paul Ryan and other aficionados of Ayn Rand, when asked about agreement to the statement "I have  a personal responsibility to help those worse off than myself"  note the responses

Completely Agree           39.2%

Mostly  Agree                 43.9%     total agreement 83.2%

Or perhaps, given Newtown, you might be interested in their response to the statement "the federal government should do more to control the sale of handguns" -

Completely Agree       45.4%

Mostly Agree              23.9%                 agreement totals 69.3%

Mostly Disagree          13.0%

Completely Disagree   11.8%%             disagreement totals 24.8%

Not Sure                     5.8%

On this, there is little doubt that Republicans and their NRA supporters are on the wrong side of an issue that has real potential to be exploited.

And on a matter of current interest:  "Do you believe that same-sex marriage should be legalized nationally?"  there were only 3 possible responses, which broke out as follows:

Yes         76.6%

Maybe      6.9%

No          16.5%

Yet Republicans still keep trying to fight this losing battle, legislatively and in the Courts, thereby further alienating young people

You should read the entire survey.

Students are not hopeful about either the economy as a whole or their personal economic futures.  That is the warning sign for Democrats, because the real question will be whether we can get these young people to vote.

But if we can, the troubles for Republicans are going to get much worse.

Look at the entire survey.

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Comment Preferences

  •  There is one thing of interest to those here (95+ / 0-)

    and I will present it by quoting from the press release:

    ...asked whose opinion the students trust concerning social and political issues, the answers they gave in descending order were: themselves, family members and academics, professors and academics, friends, the president of the U.S., religious leaders, local political representatives, national political representatives, political commentators, and political bloggers/Internet forums.
    We are at the bottom of the heap!

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:15:11 AM PDT

  •  Teacherken, and if the Republicans rig the system (19+ / 0-)

    so much that it doesn't matter what the demographic trends are in the upcoming decade?  

    The information you lay out here is encouraging, and yet there is all that cheating and gerrymandering, vote suppression and demagoguery going on to counter the positive demographic trends.

    That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

    by concernedamerican on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:35:03 AM PDT

    •  several comments (25+ / 0-)

      1  Gerrymandering CAN protect SOME legislative districts

      2.  Gerrymandering has no impact on statewide votes

      3.  Keeping students from voting at college may force them to vote absentee from home, but does not per se stop them from voting

      4.  recent experience suggests that attempting to suppress the vote leads to people being more determined to vote

      one still must remember that if students continue to believe their own economic future is not good, they may simply choose not to vote

      the argument from the data is that strong progressive positions on the issues is popular among young people of college age, who because they will be better education will be more likely to vote, and if voting, more likely to vote for the more progressive candidate

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:39:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, that is the argument, and it is indeed (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betson08, JanL, historys mysteries, elwior

        encouraging in discouraging times.

        That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

        by concernedamerican on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:43:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A caveat . . . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lostboyjim

        young people, for all of my life, have tended to be progressive, but many of them become more conservative as they grow older. Hopefully there's a cohort effect in here as well as an age effect, but I'm pretty sure if you'd surveyed college students in any recent era they would have seemed left of the center at the time.

        •  That is starting to change, mostly because (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          elwior, Odysseus

          the conservative movement has nothing to offer  young people. They are not focused on jobs they are focused on abortion and banning gay rights. When kids grow up and look at Republicans, they are not trying to make things happen for them that is beneficial to their lives.

          At least that is what I have been seeing with that age group.

          "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny. Free men pull in all kinds of directions.” --Lord Vetinari

          by voracious on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:40:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, that is not true (0+ / 0-)

          See here:
          (PDF)http://www.gwern.net/...

          People do not necessarily get more conservative when they get older. In fact, many that are conservative when younger gain more experience at how life can treat you and turn more liberal.

          The idea that people become more conservative is a myth put forth by the right wingers to try to say that you "mature" into being more conservative, as if being conservative is a more mature way to see things.

          Women create the entire labor force. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sympathy is the strongest instinct in human nature. - Charles Darwin

          by splashy on Fri Jul 19, 2013 at 11:44:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Gerrymandering is also a 2-edged sword (5+ / 0-)

        The more a given population (us) is gerrymandered, the less of a built-in advantage contained in each 'for' district. This is basic division. If you put 100 hard-core supporters into one district, you have an advantage of +100 in that district. But split your 100 reliables into 10 districts and each one has only a +10 advantage.

        So when a Party gets greedy they slit the advantage so fine they are open to massive losses across the board, should some event come by to change public opinion. Or in the case of today's GOP, they have to split themselves thin because they simply cannot win otherwise.

        So should some event come along, oh let us say Obamacare turns out to be successful and popular, we can push the GOP right over the brink into a minority party. Suddenly the gerrymandered house of cards falls.

        How do we get there? We win elections. That part is not complicated. Now it is up to each of us to decide if we are going to help make this happen or if we are going to sit in the peanut gallery.

        •  I've been trying to explain that (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          elwior, Quicklund, fumie, MKinTN, VTCC73, Mokurai

          To GOPers who don't think it's cheating and wonder, angrily, why we are "allowed" to do it or some crap.

          I always point out that Gerrymandering is playing with fire, and that when it stops working, it is generally quite unexpected to the poor bastards depending on it.

          Gerrymandering also ruins the party doing it, because it makes their candidates lazy and extremist, thus leading to wave elections to remove them.  This is so obvious I can't believe nobody thinks of it.

    •  The Seeds of Fascism are Sown From Despair (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pvasileff, Jimdotz, elwior, Odysseus

      We're seeing it in action right now with SNAP, Medicaid refusal, union busting, and more.  All basically core GOP policies they're embracing and implementing while they hold positions of power.

      Plunge a majority of the population into desperate misery, seed with a carefully tailored blend of targeted hatred, and Voila!  A repeat of post-WWI Germany and the possibility of some unintended consequences.  I'm not saying the outcome would be the same, but the outcome might not be pretty.

    •  The most impressive edifice falls... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior

      when it is built upon a foundation of sand. Gamesmanship works in the short run but it is no substitute for doing the job well.

    •  I completely agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mattc129, concernedamerican

      The future for republicans isn't bleak until it starts becoming bleak. Right now republican approval is at historic lows yet across America the GOP is passing anti-women, immigrant, voters, worker, science laws with nothing standing in their way. On the national level they are more than 50-50 to take the US Senate in the next election. At that point they will hold majorities in more state legislatures, governors mansions, and the US House and Senate.

      Restrictive voting laws and gerrymandering will almost permenantly lock in these gains for a generation or more. Demographic changes only matter when democrats can win elections because of them. To this point they haven't done it enough to turn the tide.

  •  this is I believe important information (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betson08, Caneel, elwior

    so do what you can to ensure others see it, either indirectly through this diary or directly at the survey site  (although I note I give some information that is NOT at the survey site itself but was part of the press release)

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:41:37 AM PDT

  •  Personally, I think pre-natal and peri-natal (18+ / 0-)

    health care makes the major difference.
    I used to think that if children were wanted, they'd develop into more socially engaged individuals, but that didn't take into account that exploiters certainly want their victims/kids.
    Now I suspect that much of the antagonism directed towards contemporary youth arises out of jealousy -- the perception that young people today are getting advantages that the older generation, brought up in an atmosphere of abuse and intimidation, were denied. Abused people tend to console themselves with the notion that, "if I could survive it, so can you," as they pass on the abuse.
    Then there's the "what doesn't kill me, makes me stronger," mantra. It's not true. Many people just get warped by abuse.

    We organize governments to deliver services and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 05:01:06 AM PDT

    •  Always perceptive, hannah ... (7+ / 0-)

      and here you have defined for me the kernel about The Silent Generation (mine). I railed about them (never defining myself as "us") since college in late 1950s (a female who wanted to be editor of college newspaper????). What you describe has been my lifelong burden, stunningly laid out by watching the raising of my grandchildren.

      The "Silents" raised the Boomers. But my mother, who had started work in the textile mills at age 13, raised me, and I think I was radicalized by the immigrant experience(my grandparents).

      This ...

      Abused people tend to console themselves with the notion that, "if I could survive it, so can you," as they pass on the abuse.
      Then there's the "what doesn't kill me, makes me stronger," mantra. It's not true. Many people just get warped by abuse.
      underscores the Far Right (of any generation).

      If children are wanted ... ah, the crux of the matter.

      Thank you, hannah.

      In a room where people unanimously maintain a conspiracy of silence, one word of truth sounds like a pistol shot." ~ Czeslaw Milosz

      by Caneel on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 06:44:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You made an addition error (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betson08, elwior, Robert in WV

    "Affirmative action in college admissions should be abolished"

    Completely Agree       15.0%

    Mostly Agree              19.3%                

    agreement totals 24.3

    15 + 19.3 = 34.3, not 24.3

    Please correct your diary.  Thanks.

    •  thank you eom (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betson08, elwior, Robert in WV

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 05:25:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Similar mistake on gun control (0+ / 0-)
        Or perhaps, given Newtown, you might be interested in their response to the statement "the federal government should do more to control the sale of handguns" -

        Completely Agree       45.4%

        Mostly Agree              23.9%                 agreement totals 78.3%

        Should total 69.3

        Intriguing numbers overall.  I like where this is leading.  I just hope we survive long enough for it to take root.

    •  Which proves that 10 out of 4 people (0+ / 0-)

      are less gooder at math than the other 3 or less. Well, something like that....

      Time makes more converts than reason. Thomas Paine, Common Sense

      by VTCC73 on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 02:24:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Surprised that only slightly more than half (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elwior, Odysseus

    think women must defend their reproductive rights (i.e. control of their entire lives), with no mention of abortion I would think it would be higher.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 06:24:23 AM PDT

  •  This is all well and good, (0+ / 0-)

    but when it comes time to vote, many people don't pay attention to the details of the platform but instead vote an ideology, label or affiliation.

    Certainly this is true today.

    In addition, the politicians are not necessarily legislating or governing according to what their constituents believe. Take gun control - polling today has most people supporting background checks. Is the government bowing to the will of its people? Not exactly.

    Until lots more changes beyond demographics, we're stuck with a corporatocracy that is not interested AT ALL in advancing people's needs or desires.

  •  Thanks for the diary, teacherken (7+ / 0-)

    In the aftermath of the Zimmerman verdict and resultant theatrics of bigotry (e.g., Richard Cohen at WaPo), I find this extremely heartening:

    And in case you are wondering about how many college students want to follow the thinking of the likes of Paul Ryan and other aficionados of Ayn Rand, when asked about agreement to the statement "I have  a personal responsibility to help those worse off than myself"  note the responses
    but then, I have six grandchildren, five of college age and I have been heartened throughout all of their lives so far ...

    ... and your teaching career.

    Peace and love
    Caneel

    In a room where people unanimously maintain a conspiracy of silence, one word of truth sounds like a pistol shot." ~ Czeslaw Milosz

    by Caneel on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 07:10:12 AM PDT

  •  Thanks, Ken, but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    linkage, fumie

    While I appreciate this at a time when uplift is especially necessary, color me skeptical.  For every ’08 there seems to be a ’10.  A few days following the ’12 elections I wrote:

    “After the '08 election, those on my leftist blogs repeatedly laughed derisively or at least chortled at the demise of the PulicanT Party. Having witnessed the '64 and '68 elections, I cringed and wished to be able to kick sense into them. That impulse is stronger still now. While the PulicanT Party remains the party of the rich white male only and still couldn't win an honest popular election, such an election is not possible. More alarming is that by cobbling together enough special interests willing lemminglike to vote against their own interests in pursuit of the vindication of their single or extremely limited issues, that organization still could claim 48% (and dwindling) of the vote. With money, the nutwing blat machine and time, it can exert its will as witness the control of the gerrymandered House of Representatives (total Democratic votes for Representatives exceeded theirs). Worse, they continue to pursue means of diminishing the expression of the majority will through the ballot.
    -----------------------------
    In short, the ride will be only bumpier. The fascist element reloads; it only appears to change; and it has no recessive gene.”

    While I haven’t read What’s the Matter With Kansas, I knew a man in the ‘60s who’d written a master’s thesis explaining how Kansas could be made Democratic.  After all the impressive documentation, his solution was simple:  get out the vote.  Today Kansas is a red laughing stock, and if memory serves has had no more than one Democratic Representative at a time since that period.

    Perhaps the nihilism of the right can produce the kind of attitudinal response and energy necessary; time will tell.  While I’d love to be convinced, it just doesn’t seem likely.  Even among the educated, Koch bumper sticker arguments take so much less consideration than does reason thus are more persuasive.

  •  Thank You - N/T (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elwior

    "Upward, not Northward" - Flatland, by EA Abbott

    by linkage on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 08:17:11 AM PDT

  •  This is good news I think, but... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisVoter, ammasdarling, linkage

    This survey only covers those attending college.  I believe about 2/3 of high school graduates attend college.  The survey, therefore, excludes about 1/3 of this age group (perhaps more because a certain percentage of kids drop out of high shcool).  It would be interesting to see the rest of the story.

    Fascism: The conservative notion that killing people makes them work harder

    by madtowntj on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 08:32:10 AM PDT

  •  Their reaction to the Martin verdict (4+ / 0-)

    As sickening as it is, is also revealing to how conservatives view their role in America's future, as a regional white rights party. They may not even conciously realize it, but their sudden legislative antagonism in the last few years against women and minorities displays a devil may care attitude regarding their future on a national level (and yes, I know they've always hated women and minorities, gays too, but they've really kicked it into high gear since 2010). More to the point, Republicans are turning to kamikaze style politics to slow downthe advance of progress, because they know the empire is one day lost with growing latino tide...and can't be stopped.

    They are evolving in reaction to the demographic shifts in teacherken's diary, the only question is how much damage they can do to the system before Republicans face final irrelevancy, as they do in California.

    I've seen some hardboiled eggs in my time, but you're about twenty minutes

    by harrylimelives on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 08:40:41 AM PDT

    •  yea (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, harrylimelives

      The harder they push, the harder the pushback.

      I've started telling them quite gleefully that if they don't get their racist attack dogs like Zimmerman under control, they'll end up convincing the public to take their guns away for real, permanently.  

      In the shadow of the demographic up-ending that is happening right now, I find that prospect all too likely.

      •  The reality is (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior, fumie, Odysseus

        Anti-gun legislation is bound to happen as a punitive measure, when given enough time to build sufficient legislative majorities based on Latino population growth. This will be hastened more by Republican behavior and racism more than anything else.

        Every vote to legislate a woman's body, every vote to punish minorities, every attempt to restrict voting rights and crackdown on labor has a corrosive effect on the voting public, and they have long memories. When the roles are reversed, and Republicans are vulnerable, I would bet good money that guns will be at the top of everyone's legislative agenda.

        I've seen some hardboiled eggs in my time, but you're about twenty minutes

        by harrylimelives on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:51:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  My generation can't grow up fast enough. (4+ / 0-)

    Yay for Millennials.

    "Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

    by mconvente on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 08:50:49 AM PDT

  •  Want to reform the Democratic Party? (4+ / 0-)

    Then help destroy the Republican Party.

    Many people who are not 'Blue Dog' Democrats would be Republicans today, if only there was a healthy GOP exists to offer them an alternative.

    The Republican Party has moved ever rightward until we arrive at today's utterly dysfunctional national embarrassment. Things cannot go on forever like this, so they won't. It looks like the GOP leaders have painted themselves into a corner. They need to convince a large demographic to vote against their own self-interest and today they are welded by the hip to the religious right.

    Now the RR is a national drag on overall GOP popularity, but they can't shake from of the co-dependence. Not willingly, at least. Not while the current GOP leaders are in power. So we should help push them over the edge into total collapse. Call it tough love. Call it winning elections.

    The GOP needs to be broken so it can re-from itself as something other than the exploiter of the religious right. This will happen when the GOP gets pummeled at the ballot box. When tis happens, young politicians will decide they do not want to throw away their 40 years of future career just to prolong the careers of their current leaders. In short, they will want to win elections. They will then push aside the old guard and with them the old worn-out Southern Strategy.

    When this happens many young conservative-leaning Democrats will decide they have a better shot at winning a GOP primary than they would of winning in the dominant Democratic Party. They will decide to get in on the ground floor of the new GOP, so to speak.

    When this process runs its course American will find herself with a GOP broken from its extremism, and with two major parties each more ideologically consistent throughout their relative memberships.

    This will be a good day for America. We get there by hard work and winning elections. We get "better Democrats" in the long-run when our tough love sends todays GOP to the canvass for a full 10-count.

    We do not get there by bitching or by claiming there is no difference between the parties. There is, today and much more so in the future. Speaking for myself, mark me down for being part of the solution.

    •  I hope you are correct - N/T (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Quicklund, elwior

      "Upward, not Northward" - Flatland, by EA Abbott

      by linkage on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:10:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Always will be a party for the national elites (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior, prishannah

        Hard to be elite w/o one after all. So I am not predicting Xanadu here. But the elites are too few in number, so they need to coax someone along their side. For the last 50 years that's been the religious right. Now they've thrown them so much red meat the tail is starting to wag the dog. It is not sustainable, and whatever comes along to replace this version of the GOP is bound to seem sane by comparison.

  •  That entire survey is an excellent read. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, elwior

    Thanks for posting the link.

  •  And thankfully the number of college students... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teacherken, elwior

    ...is increasing.  As is the number of high school graduates.  The more educated the citizen the greater the chances he/she (mostly she nowadays) will be liberal, progressive or  Dem (or at least less Repug and more independent).

    http://nces.ed.gov/...

    About 3.4 million students are expected to graduate from high school in 2012–13, including 3.1 million students from public high schools and 283,000 students from private high schools (source).

    The percentage of high school dropouts among 16- through 24-year-olds declined from 11.8 percent in 1998 to 7.4 percent in 2010 (source).

    In fall 2012, a record 21.6 million students are expected to attend American colleges and universities, constituting an increase of about 6.2 million since fall 2000 (source).

    Females are expected to comprise the majority of college students: 12.3 million females will attend in fall 2012, compared with 9.3 million males.

    Now those student loans...

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 09:34:52 AM PDT

  •  Reagan got 59% of vote, and many predicted.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    prishannah

    ..demise of Dem party in 1984.

    If Dems don't enact policies which lead to an increase in median real wage, the country will elect a GOP administration.

    Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. www.hamiltonproject.org

    by PatriciaVa on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 09:52:07 AM PDT

    •  umm, no (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      linkage, elwior

      if Republicans in House block any action on jobs bills and the like, it will be they who take the blame for the American people.

      And Presidentially what they are doing in the House is killing them, especially their refusal to deal with immigration reform.  That may well take off the table the following otherwise battleground states in a Presidential election

      NM, CO, NV, FL, VA

      and eventually will also do the same with TX

      simply put, if Repubs lose those 5 states, there is basically no path to 270 EVs for them unless they can totally suppress Dem votes in either OH or PA

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:02:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It wasn't the Republicans who increased the FICA.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior

        ......tax by 2% points this year, resulting in a tax hike of 120B, mostly to households earning less than 100k per year.

        Dems have an advantage, but you can't ignore the median wage.

        Where is the Dem proposal to enact a wealth tax, on households with net worth over 50M?

        Where is the Dem proposal to increase the Earned Income Tax Credit by 2,500 per year, so as to ameliorate the wage decline the middle-class has seen over the last 6 years.

        Immigration will be a factor in 2014/16.

        But so will wages and income concentration.

        Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. www.hamiltonproject.org

        by PatriciaVa on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:10:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Has their ever been a time since WWII (0+ / 0-)

    when a majority of college students were Republicans?

  •  The Republicans are two parties now (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slippytoad, elwior, Odysseus

    much as the Democrats became two parties after 1965/1968.

    The Democrats then had a moderate/conservative wing that vastly exceeded the liberal wing.  But the liberal wing was the one that constantly added new voters in the years after.  Whereas the moderate wing has diminished as it aged and one conservative faction after another has walked away and ultimately 'realigned' to the Republican Party in 1966-72, 1978-80, 1992-96, 2000-04, and 2010-14.  (We still have one pretty large one to go, maybe.)  The liberal wing became majority within the Party in the 1990s and early 2000s- but the small number remaining centrists/conservatives hold highly disproportionate power as they diminish.  In five to ten years the liberal (post-1968) wing will have all the Party.

    The present Republican Party has a libertarianism-identified wing which is small but its future.  The vast majority of its base and cadres forms a race and religion-correlated coalition based in a pre-social democratic worldview.  

    The Republican situation is like the Democratic situation around 1970.  The conservative or reactionary wing of the GOP is very dominant now internally and its elites (the corporate interest sorts) tolerate no serious competition.  But its base is old and net dying and horribly angry, jealous, reactionary, and cantankerous; there's little reason for young people to join.  That wing consists of people who grew up in a pre-1968 (in the Midwest and South, pre-1980) America and wish to restore it to that condition.  But this is an alien and brutish land to everyone born/raised thereafter.  That wing will relentless diminish.  And the rightist sorts of young people will largely sign up with the libertarian wing.

    Around 2018-2020 the country will have a true post-1968 cultural majority.  This will take a few years to firm up and also break the 53% mark, which is the psychological turning point where public perception becomes that it's majority outside any sampling error or voter turnout disparity.  And then the country will change fairly abruptly.  The pseudo-European and pre-Modern white qua Christian-centric concept of America that was its imposed definition prior to the late 1960s will suddenly be realized as truly lost, as long ago, as irrecoverable.  And maybe worst of all for contemporary conservatives, its relevance becomes doubtful and it becomes justifiable in the public culture to not even bother to be informed about it.

    Relative to that, most American developments of the past 20 years or so are pretty small (though important also, notably in West Asia).  The huge social and economic sort-out into the socially stable/ascendant and the socially falling and dying is perhaps as great.

    •  That is an excellent analysis (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, killjoy, Odysseus

      And it jibes with my thinking as well.  Demographics is inexorable, time is inexorable, progress is inexorable, and standing in the way of those things is futile.

      I've said to people that Bush was the last GOP president.  I still think they have no chance to field a candidate post-Obama.  Not one that could survive even a cursory smell test.

      Another factor driving this change is that the conversation is moving away from pundits and TV shows, where it can be controlled by the elites, and into places like this, where it cannot.  And that conversation is happening in forms, and venues, that conservatives are so clueless about that they don't even realize they're missing the important stuff.

      They see the most popular of a thing, and try to emulate it often with hilarious, ham-fisted results.  Think Romney's "I'm Gonna Pick a VP" app, which would have done something just once, and which he ignored anyway.  

      Ordinarily social inertia keeps big changes from moving too fast.  But we've finally gotten technology to a watermark where it is lubricating those changes so fast, people whose mentality is used to keeping a lid on things are out of their depth, and barking with panic and fear.

      I love it.

      •  "...progress is inexorable..." (0+ / 0-)

        From the time agriculture was developed, almost always a tiny minority has lorded over an enormous majority. Most of "civilized" human history more closely resembles the antebellum South than today's America.
        There is no inevitability to the establishment of nation built for social justice. That's just wistful rhetoric. We may very well be witnessing right now the reestablishment of an aristocratic society built solely to maintain exclusivity and privilege that could last for centuries.

        On July 18, 1936, the Spanish Civil War began as Gen. Francisco Franco led an uprising of army troops based in North Africa.

        •  It always seems that way (0+ / 0-)

          but history says says otherwise.  We can doubt that the sun will rise tomorrow; so far it has never listened to our doubts.

          In the end we all have to trust human nature to have a significant consistency for the good.  Harsh pessimism about that is a pose that is belied by not committing suicide, by having children, by seeking and finding some society.  Even if that society is all about bitching and grumbling about society and human nature.  In the end we only have each other as company and don't want to be be alone.

          That being said, social justice is not necessarily what we think or desire it to be and it is often not compatible with our selfinterests.  And justice is in vain if people do not grow to where they stop perpetrating particular kinds of wrongs on each other.   We today are a significantly more fair and equitable and confident people than average Americans were 100 years ago, but we're probably going to look as crappy- violent, mean, prejudiced, selfserving, subservient, ignorant, and arrogant- in the eyes of Americans 100 years from now as our distant predecessors do to us.

          Truth is that the country is as wealthy and peaceful and socially decent as it has ever been.  What bothers us all is that it seems it could be so much more so- the gap between what it is and what it could quite realistically be is growing.  

          Honestly, I don't see the corporate honchos as all that different from what they were doing and the power and attitudes they had 30-40 years ago.  What has changed is that a bunch of other forces relatively protective and therapeutic to average people, such as organized religion and local government and unions and significant foreign enemies, have largely fallen away.   New technology is both boon and a new hostile force.

          I don't see any rationale for an aristocracy in this.  I see a collective unhappy agreement that the American working class is very large and its employment shrinking in a permanent way, and thus a reality that the working class has to shrink in numbers.  It has never done so voluntarily, children being its great consolation for its lot.  What has happened is that economic duress has been imposed on them.  In times past they would have used unions or partisan bloc voting to push back.  But as a class they've decided not to fight it much in general- there's not much solidarity there.  They will fight in particular industries but then vote for politicians who let mines and factories in other states close, family farms dissolve, etc.  And resulting profits, compensation, pension gains, and the like are basically not given them because no one sees much point to it.  To the effect that residuals default to management and investors, and from there trickle up.  In some sense the wealthiest are being given the wealth of the working class so that it shrinks at a maximal rate still compatible with social peace.  The wealthiest people convert this wealth into corporate capital or T bills, whereas the pretty squeezed middle class (which is also under some- but less- downward population pressure via economics) would consume it.  So it's being saved up, perhaps.

          That seems to me the basic story of economic inequality in this country at the moment.  Similar things are happening in e.g. Europe and in East Asia.  China, most obviously, is overtly burning up its huge 'migrant worker' population in construction work, mining, smelting, etc to create national capital (infrastructure) and a corporate capital base.  Every side generates a selfimportant and selfinterested narrative and politics from the same facts.  But a lot of people of all classes see the basic situation and don't see much of another answer to it  From Napoleon's to Hitler's times the standard solution was attrition of excess male population on the battlefields and excess female population to hunger/disease and low status manual labor- prostitution, nursing, housemaids.

  •  What makes you assume that the right-wing (0+ / 0-)

    plans to continue to operate within the legal political system?

    July 18th, 200 An unrepentant Eric Rudolph was sentenced in Birmingham, Ala., to life in prison for an abortion clinic bombing that killed an off-duty police officer and maimed a nurse.

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