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about which you can read here (press release with data included, and also a link to PDF of entire poll).

A couple of key takeaways

Horserace  McAuliffe 43   Cuccinelli 39

McAuliffe has a 30 - 19 favorability rating, with 50 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Virginia voters give Cuccinelli a split 31 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 36 percent offering no opinion. Voters approve 47 - 34 percent of the job Cuccinelli is doing as state attorney general.

Since May 16, McAuliffe's net favorability has improved 6 percentage points while Cuccinelli's net favorability has dropped 6 points.

In the matchup, Cuccinelli carries Republicans 83 - 3 percent, while McAuliffe takes Democrats 87 - 3 percent. Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for the Democrat and 38 percent for the Republican. McAuliffe leads 48 - 32 percent among women and 73 - 7 percent among black voters. Cuccinelli leads 46 - 38 percent among men and 48 - 36 percent among white voters.

Q polled Virginians on same-sex marriage.  And remember, this is a state that a few years ago voted comfortably for a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage

Virginia voters support 50 - 43 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry in the state. Support is 68 - 26 percent among Democrats and 52 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans are opposed 68 - 26 percent. Women back same-sex marriage 55 - 39 percent while men are opposed 49 - 43 percent. White voters support it 51 - 43 percent while black voters are opposed 48 - 42 percent.
Several other items of note

Bob McDonnell's troubles so far are having no impact upon the race.

The down ballot (Lt. Gov and AG) candidates for both parties remain largely unknown by the voters.

Originally posted to teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:54 AM PDT.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 04:54:12 AM PDT

  •  Back and forth, but I'm more hopeful today (10+ / 0-)

    Three points:

    Nutjob Jackson has again screwed up his campaign finance disclosure forms, for the second month in a row. If he can't even file a form correctly, how does he expect to become Lt. Governor?

     Kookinelli's military (non) service has come up again.  He has always maintained that the Marines over-recruited for the program he was in, which is why he was discharged after only going through OCS. The Marines, however, have formally notified his campaign that they do not agree with this characterization.

    It's a tough one to pin down exactly what happened as the Marines won't give a specific reason.  However, reading between the lines, it appears to me that they basically rated Cuccinelli at the bottom of the pile and didn't think he was worth keeping in the program.  That is to say, the Marines got it right - a worthless pile of dung not worthy of consideration.  

    And third, one of my right-wing neighbors has a sign up for Mark Obenshain. Why is this a good sign, you ask? Well, in the past, he's always had signs up for all the Republicans in the race.  When I saw he had one up only for Obenshain, I asked why.  You got it - even he can't bring himself to support Cuccinelli or Jackson.

    Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone, 1866

    by absdoggy on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 06:14:03 AM PDT

    •  we need to defeat Obenshain (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eyesbright, VirginiaBlue

      as soundly as Cooch & Jackson. He's just as crazy right-wing and dangerous.

    •  That is the best news (0+ / 0-)

      I have no love for McAuliffe because he one of those toxic moderates sell outs but I would prefer just about anyone to Kookinelli.  

      If conservative Republicans think Kookinelli is too crazy for them, it could be a sign that the electorate is shifting faster than we though.  It also might mean its possible to treat crazy.  

      On the other hand, wining because the other guy needs a strait jacket and padded room is not a long term route to victory.  

      I'm a 4 Freedoms Democrat.

      by DavidMS on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:26:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  there is also a libertarian candidate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        absdoggy

        and in Virginia he will take multiple votes from the hide of Cooch for each one he takes from Terry

        further, Bill Bolling was the favorite of the banking, law and corporate types in Richmond, most of whom do not like Cooch or his history on social issues, and some are least comfortable with Terry b/c he is a businessman.

        And Cooch really pissed off the UVa network, which can also have some consequences to the tune of 1-2% net in the popular vote.  A lot of this stuff has not yet kicked in to what you are seeing in the polling.

        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

        by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 10:34:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  doggy, thanks for the news ...... (0+ / 0-)

      ..... and your comment appears in the Top Comments diary for this evening.

      "We should pay attention to that man behind the curtain."

      by Ed Tracey on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 07:15:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Still too close (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eyesbright

    And it's absurd that the issues with McDonnell has had no impact so far. Virginia Democrats need to do a better job of informing people there about this and that Cuccinelli is also involved!

    •  I think you are misreading (3+ / 0-)

      Cuccinelli has already run and won in a statewide general election

      McAuliffe has only run in a low-turnout primary

      even if top line numbers have not changed, what is important is change in net favorability

      Terry +6

      Cooch -6

      or overall a 10 point swing

      in general, the more people learn about Cooch the weaker he becomes

      the more they learn about Terry, so far they seem inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt

      Also, there is a Libertarian candidate in the race who will draw at least 3 votes from Cooch for each vote he draws from Terry

      As of right now, Terry has more money on hand and has raised more, by a significant margin on both counts.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Thu Jul 18, 2013 at 06:19:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  we need this one (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eyesbright

    Christie's going to win by 20 points min. in N.J. Looks like we should win back the NYC mayor's office for the first time since 89. This would give us two of the three big races and a claim for off year election cycle momentum.

  •  Concerned. (0+ / 0-)

    Honestly, I'm concerned that Cooch's favorability is still at +1 and that McAuliffe still has 50% undecided. Those are really huge numbers and allow for a ton of variability in this race. It would be nice if Cooch really gets swept up in the McDonnell scandal, but barring that, this race is going to be too close for my stomach to handle.

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