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I finally have an Arkansas data set ready for Dave's Redistricting App. To put it mildly, sorting out the 2008 election data for the state was a nightmare. In any event, I'll be forwarding it to Dave after I take a last glance over it tonight. I don't know when it'll actually get uploaded, but here are some relevant notes while it's fresh in my mind.

[Edit] The 2010 precinct data is an average of the votes for Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and Commissioner of State Lands. These were the three closest statewide races and all three went narrowly Republican.[Edit]

A few relevant notes.

1) There is a scattering of voting districts where the 2008 figures add up to more than the 2010 voting age population. These are all in the Delta and appear attributable to two reasons. First, the Delta has been losing population, up to a quarter in some areas, with much of the loss toward the end of the last decade. Second, I had to do early vote distributions in a number of counties and it's clear that in several Delta counties these were heavily concentrated in urban areas. In any case, I only decided to 'tweak' the figures for two counties (noted below) where the deviation was systematic. In general, I avoid making arbitrary adjustments to my standard methodology. The number of votes affected are ultimately trivial in the broad scheme of things.

2) Pine Bluff: I used the list of precincts and polling locations to do the initial vote assignment. However, in many cases where neighboring precincts used the same poll location there would be one precinct with way too many votes and the other with way too few. I don't know if this is a reporting issue or a mapping issue (it seems to be a combination). I redistributed these precincts by VAP. In a few cases, this involved a heavily black and a heavily white precinct. I further adjusted these figures to match the partisan breakdowns of nearby precincts with the same racial composition. I did the exact same distributions for both 2008 and 2010.

Precinct 212 was double counted by the state (but not the county) in 2008. I excluded the duplicate votes. That's why my statewide total is different from the official total.

3) Russellville: In 2008 all of Russellville voted at Tucker Coliseum, so I just distributed those votes to the 32 relevant voting districts by VAP. In 2010 the precinct counts were reported separately but the precincts did not remotely match the census voting districts. I got a precinct map and distributed votes by VAP on the block level.

4) West Memphis & Helena: For the 2008 election, Crittenden County (W. Memphis) and Phillips County (Helena) did not assign early votes by precinct. When I did my standard distribution, the rural precincts ended up with far too many votes. In short, I reweighted the early vote distribution to put most of the early votes in the urban/suburban voting districts.

5) Hot Springs: The election precincts and census voting districts also don't match up very well at all in Garland County. I had to use a street file to find the sub-precinct boundaries and distribute the votes accordingly based on VAP.

And a general note: Arkansas has made an impressive move to standardize its election reporting, which is now quite orderly. Sadly this was not the case in 2008. Some counties distributed all votes by precinct, some did absentees but not early votes, some did early votes but not absentees, some did neither. In 2010, almost all counties did a full precinct distribution. If in doubt, go with 2010, which is probably the more useful data set in any event, since those were actually close elections and the precincts more consistently matched the census VTDs (meaning far fewer adjustments were required on my part).

Finally, I'll be forwarding minor fixes for New Hampshire (Hampton and Hampton Falls are currently flipped) and for Oklahoma (the boundaries for precincts 201 & 202 in Logan County are wrong on the census maps, so I needed to do a distribution).

I also did a data set for 2012 Puerto Rico governor. I don't know how it'll be labelled on DRA, but Padilla (Popular Democratic Party) will be blue and Fortuño (New Progressive Party) will be red, because Padilla is a registered Democrat and Fortuño is a registered Republican.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Nice, let the gerrymandering commence! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Just for reference, while I think Lt. Gov was the best one to do, Broadway's base was in Saline County IIRC and anyway he performed much stronger there than any other Democrat that year except for Beebe and even then did nearly as well as him.

    •  Broadway's overperformance in (0+ / 0-)

      the Little Rock suburbs though, means that averaging the SoS race into the average partisan results may have balanced out the regions a bit, since the SoS candidate did much worse in the Little Rock suburbs, but substantially better in the southern part of the state.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Jul 19, 2013 at 07:51:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nothing like a woulda, coulda, shoulda map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Thanks for this; good to see you back around.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jul 19, 2013 at 04:43:35 PM PDT

  •  Great news! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Should allow some nice, ugly-as-hell gerrymanders to be made. Thanks!

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

    by General Goose on Fri Jul 19, 2013 at 04:45:15 PM PDT

  •  I wonder if GOP had controlled AR Leg in 2010 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    would they have drawn a Democratic vote sink from West Memphis to Little Rock and Pine Bluff.  It certainly would have helped us.  I guess we shall find out what that district would've looked like. :P


  •  Has Dave not uploaded it yet (I'm assuming) (0+ / 0-)

    or am I the only one not seeing any elections data?

    •  No (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      I haven't even sent it yet. I will tonight after I look over a couple things. Also, it depends on Dave's schedule, of course, and the past couple years he was on vacation in July. I'd say just look to the front page. Dave pretty reliably updates the list of states with election data whenever he uploads new ones.

  •  about Puerto Rico (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, roguemapper

    it really is ridiculous to pretend there is a Democrat or Republican division over there, there is none whatsoever in the puerto rican general elections. Yes, García Padilla sympathizes with the Democrats (So does Hondura's president Porfirio Lobo) but he is not a ''democrat'' because there is no US Democratic Party registered in Puerto Rico's general elections, the same goes to Fortuño, the Republican party is not registered and people over there do not know the difference between the US parties and people do not care because it is a non issue, it is foreign.
    Garcia Padillla's party, the ruling party, is pro Puerto Rican nationhood, is social-democrat, a center-left party Fortuño's party wants annexation with the US and believes puerto rican identity and culture can be protected under statehood, is a conservative right wing party. the left wing parties are pro puerto rican republic. People vote for who is going to move Puerto Rico towards US or who is going to keep Puerto Rican nationhood safe, or move it towards a republic.

    •  by the way (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Garcia Padilla's party is the Partido Popular Democrático and their colors are red as in socialist red (in Spain the ruling party is also called Partido Popular) and Fortuño's party is the Partido Nuevo Progresista with a symbol of a palm tree and their color is a palatinate shade of blue.

    •  I thought the PPD was pro-commonwealth (0+ / 0-)

      i.e. autonomy, but ultimately a US territory

      and the PIP was pro-independence, but is more of a fringe party

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 21, 2013 at 09:51:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        nobody in Puerto Rico supports territorial status, if you look at the 1998 plebiscite that option (Ela territorial) was not supported by the PPD and got 0.1%. The PPD supports a non territorial and non colonial option. The PPD is divided between those who believe PR achieved nationhood in 1952 with the Estado Libre Asociado (a country freely associated) and those who believe PR needs to be officially sovereign, these last group got over 25% in the last plebiscite.

    •  Wait, the PNP has mixed domestic policy (0+ / 0-)

      They run the gamut from conservative to social democrats.  You have Fortuno, sure, but you also have Pierluisi, who is also an ardent Democrat.  I believe the ex-Mayor of San Juan was rather liberal and a PNPer.  So was the Secretary of State (or whatever the position is there).

      What happened in 2012 elections?  The PNP, despite having an apparent iron grip on power, were wiped out.  They lost their majorities, their president, and a majority of mayors (including the San Juan mayor).  Heck, even Pierluisi had a surprisingly close race with a PPDer.  Was it the economy or was it Fortuno's national politics (i.e. trying to couple the PNP with the US Republican Party).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 21, 2013 at 09:57:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PNP lost because (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, roguemapper

        they tried to shut down or  damage all the pro sovereignty outposts: they tried to destroy the university of PR's autonomy (which is a latin american tradition), they tried to dissolve the Colegio de Abogados and belittle all the cultural institutions, they tried to create bilingual schools like it was 1901, they tried to diminish puerto rican industries in favor of US industries. they tried to shrink government to resemble US states and fired almost 25,000 gov. employees. they shut down PR international representation in the United Nations and other international organizations like Caricom.
        Enters the PPD in 2013 and stops the bilingual schools, moves PR into the international scene (already has signed bilateral treaties with Colombia, Peru and Dominican Republic), incorporates PR back into international organizations like UN, Caricom and others, makes national industries (puerto rican) as a priority, agriculture moves again to the forefront...the difference between both parties is very visible.

        •  Interesting. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          I remember reading how Fortuno was pushing bilingual schools to make statehood more palatable to DC Republicans.  BTW, how is the PPD doing after winning back control?

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 21, 2013 at 11:55:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because one main concern of mine (0+ / 0-)

            is that the PPD returns to the corruption that got them swept out of power in the first place.

            One more question.  PR approved the pro-statehood plebiscite with no poison pill.  When do they present it to Congress for their consideration?

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 21, 2013 at 11:57:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  yes (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            that was Fortuño's plan.
            I think the PPD is moving slowly but doing a good job overall. the only thing i do not like is the gas tax, 4 cents.

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      Your post pretty much summarized the extent of my knowledge about Puerto Rico politics and I didn't mean to imply much otherwise.

      The point I was making though is that DRA has to assign a color and that's how the colors will be assigned. Beyond that, I think it's quite clear that if Puerto Rico does become a state this is how the major parties will realign into the mainland party system. I realize that current voting patterns are heavily influenced by statehood politics, but it's also worth noting that at the precinct level having the PPD as blue and the PNP as red seems to set up a fairly neat urban/rural divide similar to the D/R divide seen in most of the current states.

      But, regardless, the issue I was addressing is how DRA applies labels. I vaguely recall that it has to give non-2008 elections a Dem/Rep label, because of the way the application works, but that might have changed. I'm just not sure. My point was simply that if the labels end up being "Democratic" and "Republican" then D will represent Padilla and R will represent Fortuño. Beyond that technical issue of labeling, I figure that anyone who decides to do a Puerto Rico map will be familiar enough with the island's politics to take it from there.

      •  i dont think that would be the realignment (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        since the PPD is founded as a pro puerto rican nation party (and its founder is the creator of the Estado Libre Asociado status) therefore an anti annexation party,  i do not see the PPD metamorphosing into a US party if PR becomes another US State. The party would simply dissappear along with Puerto Rico's present politcal reality and national identity, national flag and national anthem. You are talking about a major change in Puerto Rico and therefore a complete different political game.

        Also, the pro independence party has only one senator, Maria de Lourdes Santiago, but it is the fourth most voted senator islanwide, that tells you how complex puerto rican politics are.

        •  Puerto Rico can keep its flag. (0+ / 0-)

          Texas kept its flag from when it was briefly a republic of its own.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 21, 2013 at 03:22:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Do you oppose statehood? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          casals, KingofSpades

          That's the impression I get from your comments and I'm just curious as to why you oppose statehood, if that's the case.

          Fortunately, ignorance of local politics doesn't prevent me from prepping data for DRA. For instance, I could care less why the county clerk and the election coordinator in one Arkansas county have refused to speak to one another since 2011. I just needed their maps and precinct lists.

          Of course, I'm vastly more interested in the question of Puerto Rican statehood, I just don't know much about the local politics of the issue.

          •  yes, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, roguemapper

            we are a different nation, we are latin americans, our language and history is totally different and statehood can change what we are and turn us into some hybrid,  the way it happened in Hawaii, i would not like to see puerto ricans becoming a minority in their own country or end up speaking broken spanish or losing our identity as a country in the world. i voted for sovereign commonwealth (ELA Soberano) in the past plebiscite and all my family voted also for it and in the general elections i voted for Garcia Padilla and the PPD,
             i would not mind becoming a republic either. we can have a very good relationship with the US like Costa Rica has but once you become a state you can't go back, it would mean the end of Puerto Rico as we know it today, we would dissapear as a country.

        •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

          Reading over that, it probably didn't come out right. All I'm saying is that for DRA purposes what matters to me is putting numbers in their correct position on the map. While a three decade history of VRA lawsuits in a given county might be fascinating (which is why the county clerk and election coordinator in said county refuse to speak to one another) it's irrelevant to my working with election data.

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