I happen to think that attacking Syria, even in a very limited way, is a much worse idea than the invasion of Iraq in 2002.
Now this reports in the New York Times confirms my fears.
From the link above:
Iranian lawmakers and commanders issued stark warnings to the United States and its allies on Tuesday, saying any military strike on Syria would lead to a retaliatory attack on Israel fanned by “the flames of outrage.”
An attack on Syria could result in:
1. Involvement of Iran who sees Syria as its major ally in the region and has a defense pact with them.
2. Massive war in Lebanon where there are supporters and opponents of Assad.
3. Involvement of Israel in the war if Iran or Syria attack Israel.
4. Involvement of Turkey in the war, if Syria retaliates by attacking Turkey where most of the rebels have been based and receiving support.
5. Unpredictable reactions by Russia and China. One cannot exclude with absolute confidence the possibility of a military reaction by Russia. It may be unlikely, but no one knows for sure except Putin.
6. Collapse of the US economy again. See what happened yesterday just with the anticipation of an attack: U.S. Stocks Drop on Syria Tensions.
Is that what the neocons and the likes of McCain want? It is unfortunate that Obama and the democrats seem to finally give up and getting ready to go to war.
War for what? We dont know who used the chemical weapons and the UN investigative team has not concluded their work. Assad had no motive to use chemicals. He has been winning big time the last 2-3 weeks with conventional weapons. The only ones who had the motive are the rebels. One possible scenario is that one rebel group used chemical weapons against another one (they have been already internal fights with killings between rebel groups) during a time of an attack by Assad, so Assad is incriminated and an outside intervention takes place.
But even if Assad had done this (and I again I dont believe he did), there should still not be US intervention, unless the US Security council approves.
Obama was elected president and won a Nobel Peace Price because among other things had promised to respect the international law and the US constitution. If he believes war is necessary, he needs the approval of the UN security council and the US congress. Any other war would not be legal. This war has the potential to become something much bigger than Iraq and respect for international law should be in place before any attack starts.