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Those who remember the issues that allowed a young upstart from Illinois to outpace the Clinton machine way, way back in 2007 might recall that war was a chief concern. Specifically, Hillary’s refusal to apologize for her vote on the authorization was a lightening rod around which activist gathered before many of them knew who Obama was.

But, Hillary has nothing to do with Syria. She’s not Secretary of State. She’s not involved.

I know. Please, bear with me.

The polling on a conflict with Syria is rather clear. Americans don’t like the idea.

Senator Rand Paul, who is considering whether or not he will consider to consider a run in 2016 clearly knows how to consider a poll. His statement released today calling for a dialogue sets the stage for an, ‘I told you so,’ a little ways down the road.

Remember, there are no good options on Syria. The likelihood that things will go badly, no matter what, is rather high.

Another reminder, young people like to think of themselves as Libertarian, like Rand Paul.

As a very recent former Secretary of State, I believe Hillary has no choice but to agree with the administration’s stance or hold a strategic silence. Both positions allow an opening for someone like Rand Paul to exploit. He can always claim to have voiced opposition first.

I notice a bragging around these parts that our coalition of young people, women and minorities can beat all the old folks Republicans can muster in a National election.

My question is, and I really don’t know the answer, can a coalition of women and minorities beat a coalition of young people entranced by Libertarianism and expressing an anti-war stance with their vote, and all the old people Republicans can muster?

Because if things go badly in Syria (and they likely will), Rand Paul has a shot of putting that coalition together.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Baloney (5+ / 0-)

    Hillary would eat Rand Paul for lunch, no matter what happens in Syria.

  •  Young people do not want to (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atana, bluezen, highacidity, Game Theory

    consign the governance of their uteri or the uteri of their wives, lovers, sisters and daughters, to any "Libertarian" such as Paul I or Paul II.  Both of them are in favor of a constitutional amendment that would grant personhood to every fetus.  

    So No.  Just No.

    It's the Supreme Court, stupid!

    by Radiowalla on Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 04:31:16 PM PDT

    •  That's a good point. (0+ / 0-)

      I very strongly feel that women may collectively decide to aggressively grab hold of the levers of history in a way that shocks the establishment in 2016.

      There's some anecdotal evidence that it is already beginning to happen.

      Example. I grew up in the Lutheran church. Although I am no longer involved I hear the news from time-to-time. The ELCA recently elected its first female leader in history. As it was explained to me, the previous Bishop was well liked and expected to be re-elected. Very little campaigning was done. No one saw this coming. It just happened.

      Not going to go so far off subject as to dig for links, but the same thing may be occurring in the Jersey's Gov election. Chris Christie is not the lock many assume and women voters could be the deciding factor if he is defeated.

      But, I'm still worried. War does unexpected things.

  •  I think there is a lot to think of here. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Game Theory

    The NSA and Syrian strike issues can be used by Libertarians to siphon off support from the Democrats.  This is what Greenwald (in my estimation) is working to achieve.  He has stated before he wants a third party.

    Rand may not stand a chance against Hillary, but if its a Hillary/Christie/Paul election enough votes may be taken away from Hillary to give the GOP the presidency.

  •  paul will not win young voters (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bluezen, Game Theory

    any more than his dad did. that dog simply won't hunt.

    the problem is more of disillusioned young voters sitting the election out than of them actively voting for someone like rand.

    •  Yes, and Rand gives them (0+ / 0-)

      the social cover to sit the election out without feeling guilty about it.

      •  do you actually talk to any young voters? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Game Theory

        republicans are positively radioactive in that demographic, especially tea party types. noone young listens to wingers like rand for political cues. they have the ability to see what's happening and get disillusioned about democrats all on their own, because what's going on is really fucking obvious.

        •  Yes, I do, and... (0+ / 0-)

          ...many mention being curious about Libertarians when they express disgust with both Republicans and Democrats.

          I wasn't attempting to express a sure thing, like, 'This will happen...' It was an open question. Will they listen to an anti-war pitch from a Libertarian? If they listen, can they be swayed?

          We may view Rand Paul as a Tea Partier, but he has his brand well established as a Libertarian thanks to dear ol' dad.

          What I'm getting from the comments, generally, is that, yes, they may listen, but, no, they won't be swayed.

          Okay, but I'm still not convinced.

          •  and that's why ron paul did so well in 2012, eh? (0+ / 0-)

            i keep hearing pundits talk about these libertarian youth voters, but their voting behavior is increasingly liberal, not libertarian. young republicans might be swinging that way, but they're a shrinking part of the youth vote as well.

            sure, young voters are anti-war, hate police brutality, dislike the NSA surveillance, and are sick of the drug war, but that doesn't make them libertarians, those are all standard-issue liberal/progressive dem positions.

            •  You're Right. Ron Paul Crashed in 2012 (0+ / 0-)

              The Youth vote also broke for Obama and many other Dems, and did so overwhelmingly.

              That's also because of Romney. Unlike Rand Paul, he didn't say anything any young person could really get behind.

              Can Rand Paul actually pull-off beating Christie and Santorum? That's going to be a really fun question to see answered, but no one really knows.

              It's still dangerous to make the assumption that Democrats can rely on the anti-war vote once Democrats start getting the US into un-winnable wars in the Mid-East too. I view the anti-war vote as mostly young. They have the most to lose.

              •  if you think rand paul is going to move the youth (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Game Theory

                vote, you're utterly beyond help.

                and i agree with you that dems take the anti-war vote for granted, and that the youth are the most anti-war out there (a function in of their being the most left generational cohort at the moment). but this assertion that rand of all republicans can appeal to the youth vote is absurd to the extreme.

                for starters, the youth are the least white, least religious, least fundamentalist christian, least conservative generational cohort around. just because a libertarian happens to agree with them on an issue doesn't mean they'll overlook all the other crap those guys believe. the kids aren't stupid.

          •  "dear old dad" isn't much of a libertarian either. (0+ / 0-)

            Ron Paul's been in politics on and off for about 37 years, and was a Libertarian for what appears to be about four of them.  The rest of his career he's spent as a Republican.

  •  We don't know whether there will be a war, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Game Theory

    how serious it's going to be and what will be the outcome. Hillary is not directly involved right now and if things go very badly all Dems will be blamed and then it won't matter who the nominee is.

  •  It's a long time to 2015 elections and lots can (0+ / 0-)


    Doing something or doing nothing in Syria is wrong, it's lose lose.

    It is for the UN NATO to decide and for the UN or NATO to pull the  trigger on missiles if they choose.  They may be our missiles from our ships but let NATO or the UN bear the weight of the outcome.

    And let them damn well bear the expense of this fool's errand.

    If we just have to throw billions that way let it be in aide for the refugees.  They will be causing their own issues of unrest in other countries who don't want them.  Maybe we could help with that instead of killing more brown skilled people and creating more anti American terrorists.

  •  i work with younger voters, & while their (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, Game Theory

    political thoughts/feelings might run in a libertarian bent, there's no way in hell the ones i work with will ever vote for rand paul -- they think he's too weird. the best thing that could happen to the d's would be for rand  paul to end up as the r's nominee in 2016 -- well, actually, rand paul would be the second best thing. if sarah palin got the nomination, that would be the best thing.

    •  Ha! Palin Would Be Awesome. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Part of me loves her because she's a classic Grifter. Most of me loves her because she's crazy. I think we'd have a shot at all 50 States if she ran.

      It's nice to hear from someone who works directly with Youth. Seriously. Thank you.

  •  You think youth will vote Repub, huh? (0+ / 0-)

    I'll look for you after the election.

    •  LOL, Not Exactly (0+ / 0-)

      I'm saying they could pose an electoral risk if they're being shipped off to war.

      As someone else pointed out, simply sitting the election out could have an impact.

      We've got a strong three-legged stool right now. Youth, Women and Minorities. Kick one of those pretty hard, and what happens?

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