Many comments and diaries have discussed whether the United States should launch cruise missiles against the Assad regime in Syria. The legality and morality of this has been discussed at length (I myself have written more than in several years). But it seems to me that the crucial issue is what the missiles are intended to accomplish.
If you follow below the orange croissant, you will see my analysis of the possible consequences of a strike. It may well be flawed and incomplete, but unless we think through the possible consequences of our actions, we have no hope of ever doing the right thing. We may do the wrong thing anyway. But we have to try to foresee the effects of what we do.
When the missiles stop falling and the dust settles to the ground, then one of two things is true: Assad is alive or he is dead.
I. Suppose Assad is alive
One of the following must be true:
A. He is shocked and awed by the missiles and refrains from using chemical weapons
1. The war is fought with conventional weapons and ends quickly with Assad winning, in which case it becomes even more mysterious why Assad would use chemical weapons in the first place
or 2. The war is fought with conventional weapons and ends quickly with Assad losing, in which case his stockpile of chemical weapons is grabbed by the rebels or by the U.S. (see below)
or 3. The war is fought with conventional weapons and continues as a bloody stalemate, with the death toll and refugee population rising day after day.
B. He is afraid that the U.S. will launch a ground invasion or that the rebels will win a conventional war, and decides to unleash everything in his chemical arsenal on the grounds "use it or lose it." In which case, one of the following must be true:
1. The war ends quickly with horrendous casualties and a contaminated landscape
2. Despite horrendous casualties, the stalemated war continues
C. Assad reacts irrationally, out of anger and fear, and impulsively launches all-out attacks using everything in his arsenal on what is left of the Syrian population; the result is a bloodbath (see section B above)
II Suppose Assad is dead
One of the following must be true:
A. Other members of his regime continue the war (see above)
B. The regime collapses, resulting in one of the following:
1. the rebels, a disparate group, many of whom are violent anti-Western jihadists, grab the chemical weapons when they encounter them in storage. These weapons can now be used in acts of terrorism in the U.S. and Europe, or closer to home against Israel or other states friendly to the U.S.
2. The United States sends in substantial troops to look for weapons while fighting off the victorious rebels attempting to grab the same things. This involves substantial casualties, both American and non-American.
So far as I can tell, most of the things that will happen if we shoot off the missiles are bad. About the only possible outcome which wouldn't be horrible would be Assad winning quickly using conventional weapons. Considering that he is the thug we are trying to punish and deter, this seems to be a peculiar thing to hope for.