This is just a short diary with very little substance, but given that I've failed on the stock market, failed at sports betting, and failed at pretty much anything that requires a combination of shrewd judgment and luck, people who are against shooting missiles into Syria on a nebulous rationale may find some comfort in my Syria predictions.
1. We'll hear "disturbing and rancid oratory" (to borrow a phrase from Meteor Blades' diary) all over the media on Sep 11. They'll pull no punches in injecting Syria into the national Sep 11 conversation. This won't have any observable effect on what's to follow, but it'll be there nonetheless.
2. House votes no.
3. Senate votes yes.
4. Admin runs with Senate vote. Shoots shit into Syria. Middle Eastern turmoil.
5. Iran, acting on defense pact, gets drawn into war.
6. I get underwear again this year for Christmas (briefs, in case you're wondering).
Trust me, I hope this is nothing more than a brain fart. But, hey, if I end up right, I guess I'll be more than a little smug about my 0-dimensional chess prowess -- that is, after I get over the whole "real people are really dying" footnote.
What I'm undecided on is whether the administration would ignore Congress in the case of two no votes. I'm also not completely clear on the availability of Congressional deadlock tactics and how the administration might play in the event of a deliberate deadlock.
8:11 PM PT: The evil beauty of a House no vote + Senate yes vote is that it can be engineered to avoid 2014 blowback. A quick check reveals that there are, at most, only a few dozen senators up for reelection in 2014, and a bunch of them undoubtedly have a secure spot no matter which way they vote.