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Leading Off:

MA-05: With the all-important Oct. 15 Democratic primary to fill now-Sen. Ed Markey's vacant House seat looming, candidates are starting to go up on the airwaves. The first to do so wasstate Sen. Katherine Clark, who  created two ads and is spending $60,000 on cable, but hasn't said which spot will actually air. One features her mother talking about how she was steered away from engineering as a young girl, to which Clark responds, "Some things barely change. Today, the Republicans in Congress opposed equal pay for equal work, deny birth control." In the second, Clark says her grandmother, "a machinist in World war II" would "be heartbroken how the Republican extremist in Congress treat women."

State Rep. Carl Sciortino quickly followed Clark, with a $100,000 buy backing a non-traditional minute-long ad. It's a cutesy back and forth between Sciortino and his tea partying father, to whom he "comes out" as a "Massachusetts liberal." With some exasperation, pops rattles off Sciortino's various progressive achievements, but grudgingly admits he's "kinda proud" of his son, and still loves him, too.

Senate:

NH-Sen, -Gov: PPP's latest poll of New Hampshire finds freshman Sen. Jeanne Shaheen slipping a bit, but luckily for her, Republicans haven't found a single candidate to run against her—not even a sausage. Here's how she does against a very hypothetical field:

• 48-44 vs. ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (Apr.: 52-41)
• 51-41 vs. ex-Rep. Charlie Bass
• 51-35 vs. ex-Sen. Bob Smith
• 50-33 vs. ex-state Sen. Jim Rubens
• 50-31 vs. conservative activist Karen Testerman
• 52-30 vs. UNH business school dean Dan Innis
Thanks to those very same GOP recruitment woes, the only person we have trendlines for is Brown, and while I very much doubt he'll actually drag his carpetbag up to the Granite State, Shaheen has seen her margin against him tighten by 7 points. Her job approval score has also fallen a similar amount, from 53-39 to 49-42. These are still good numbers, though, especially since it's almost autumn and Shaheen is still running unopposed.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, whose term lasts just two short years, also looks well-positioned for re-election. And she, too, faces nary a challenger and leads all the maybes:

• 49-34 vs. attorney Brad Cook
• 49-33 vs. state Sen. Chuck Morse
• 49-42 vs. state Rep. George Lambert
• 49-32 vs. state Sen. Andy Sanborn
If anything, this pile of nobodies is even less distinguished than the gang that might run for Senate. All of these Republicans have little name recognition, of course, but Hassan is right up against 50, and the GOP has a lot of other governor's races to worry about this cycle. (And as in Wisconsin, PPP also asked about the generic legislative ballot; once again, Democrats have only the tiniest of edges, 44-43.)

WV-Sen: As expected, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant made her campaign for Senate official on Tuesday, finally giving Democrats the big-name contender they've been desperate for to hold this difficult open seat. The establishment immediately rallied around Tennant, with Sens. Joe Manchin and Jay Rockefeller (the man she's hoping to replace) issuing statements of support, so she should have a clear path in the primary. (Tennant also has a welcome video.)

Tennant won't have an easy time against Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the likely Republican nominee, but she does give Democrats a fighting chance. And West Virginia may be one of the few places where Democrats can do better in a mid-term election, with Barack Obama not at the top of the ballot. Tennant should also be able to attract national money, and she wouldn't have gotten in if polling didn't show her with a chance, so this will, at the very least, be a serious race.

Gubernatorial:

IL-Gov: When the news broke late on Monday night that former White House chief of staff Bill Daley was dropping out of the Democratic primary for governor, my first reaction was, "Holy smokes!" My second was, doesn't anyone want to take on Gov. Pat Quinn? With approvals in the dumps and few friends willing to stick up for him, Quinn is as vulnerable as incumbents come, and if he's the Democratic nominee next year, Republicans will likely have a much better shot at a pickup than they would facing any other opponent.

Not that I have any love for Daley, who described himself as "maybe more of a moderate pro-business Democrat than some like today" and all but admitted he was in over his head in telling the Chicago Tribune he was quitting. (Quote: "Is this really me? Is this really what I want to spend my next five to nine years doing?") But his departure does open the door to other ambitious Democrats. One possibility might be state Sen. Kwame Raoul, who had considered a bid but recently decided against the idea. Another could be former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, who finished a relatively close second in the 2010 Democratic primary for Senate.

The filing deadline is Dec. 2, so there's still time for a challenger to put a campaign together. The primary is in March, though, so anyone who wants to consider a run had best make up his or her mind quickly. And if no one takes the leap, Democrats may be stuck trying to prop up a very damaged candidate in 2014.

KS-Gov: State House Minority Leader Paul Davis, who formed an exploratory committee last month, has now made his bid for governor official. He's also getting help from the last Democrat to serve as governor of Kansas: HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is headed home to attend a "reception" for Davis on Thursday. (It's not clear if this event is also a fundraiser.) Davis is hoping to unseat GOP Gov. Sam Brownback.

PA-Gov: Former state environmental chief Kathleen McGinty is offering up an internal poll of the Democratic primary from Garin-Hart-Yang that shows her trailing front-runner Allyson Schwartz—even after candidate bios are read. On the initial ballot, Schwartz leads with 25, while McGinty is tied with businessman Tom Wolf and state Treasurer Rob McCord at 6 apiece.

On the informed trial heat, Schwartz still sits in first with 36, though McGinty zooms into a clear second place with 25, while Wolf only rises to 10 and McCord to 9. I never like to report these kinds of informed tests because they don't resemble anything found in the real world, but I'm doing so here because McGinty is evidently trying to position herself as the strongest non-Schwartz option. (Why else release a poll showing your own campaign stuck in second?) But we'll see if anyone bites.

VA-Gov: No wonder why Republicans are getting nervous. It's not just the polls showing Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the lead—he keeps dominating on the fundraising front, too. In July and August, McAuliffe raised almost $7.4 million, compared with $5.7 million for Republican Ken Cuccinelli. The difference is even starker when comparing cash on hand: McAuliffe has $5 million left in the bank while Cuccinelli has just $2.2 million. Both candidates have relied heavily on their party's gubernatorial committees, but it appears that the RGA has had to offer Cuccinelli a lot more support than the DGA has McAuliffe—and in spite of that, he's still well behind.

And, funny we should mention polling, because there's also yet another survey featuring T-Mac on top. Republican pollster Harper Polling, on behalf of the website Conservative Intelligence Briefing, finds McAuliffe ahead 42-37, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 10. Some other polls have shown Sarvis doing about as well, but it would be very surprising if he held on to such a sizable chunk of the vote come Election Day.

Finally, McAuliffe has a new ad featuring an OB-GYN who says she's "offended" that Cuccinelli "wants to make all abortion illegal." She finishes with a bit of a zinger: "I want a governor who's focused on schools and creating jobs, not someone who wants to do my job."

WI-Gov: PPP's new Wisconsin poll features GOP Gov. Scott Walker leading a quartet of potential opponents, though he hovers not far below the 50 percent mark in every matchup:

• 47-43 vs. Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (Feb.: 48-43)
• 48-42 vs. businesswoman & Madison school board member Mary Burke
• 47-41 vs. state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout
• 47-40 vs. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson
As you can see based on the Barca trendlines, nothing's changed here since February, when Walker's job approval rating was identical to the 48-49 score he receives now. Burke, the most likely Democrat to run, is little-known, with favorables of just 18-21. That gives her proverbial room to grow, especially if she's willing to invest part of her apparently considerable wealth on her own behalf. But a distressing 13 percent of self-identified Democrats say they're supporting Walker, so Burke would need to win back a good chunk of that contingent to have a chance.

PPP also ask a generic legislative ballot question—that is, would respondents vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for legislature from their district. Dems have just a 1-point edge, 44-43, showing how hard it will be for the party to make gains next year. (Republicans control both chambers.)

House:

AL-01: Former RNC official Wells Griffith offers up one last ad ahead of Tuesday's for-all-the-marbles GOP primary in the AL-01 special election. In the cheaply-produced spot, Griffith says that his parents taught him to "look to the Bible and the constitution for wisdom and guidance," but then, picking up a stack of paper ("Obamacare"), he explains that he's running to relegate "this document" "to the trash pile of history." He then literally tosses the sheaf into a garbage can. Good luck, buddy.

IA-04: Biden Alert! The vice president is headlining a D.C. fundraiser next week for Iraq vet Jim Mowrer, who is waging an uphill fight against GOP Rep. Steve King. Mowrer, it turns out, worked for Biden's presidential campaign in Iowa in 2007, then became tight with Biden's son Beau when the two later served in Baghdad together. Maryland Rep. John Delaney is also hosting the vent.

IL-17: Conservative pollster We Ask America, on behalf of local tipsheet Capitol Fax, just polled the race in Illinois' 17th Congressional District, where ex-Rep. Bobby Schilling is attempting a comeback against the Democrat who beat him last year, Rep. Cheri Bustos. Bustos is up by a single point, 45-44, in WAA's one-day robopoll. However, WAA did not have a good record polling House races in Illinois last year, consistently overestimating GOP chances. In fact, in IL-17, they found Schilling up 52-48 in the final week. He lost, 53-47.

Other Races:

Minneapolis Mayor: Mayor R.T. Rybak's retirement has created a very crowded and competitive Nov. 5 race to succeed him. The Star Tribune has commissioned a survey from Pulse Opinion Research (Rasmussen Reports' pollster-for-hire) and they find a very unpredictable contest. Here is a quick guide to who's running, with their percentage in parentheses:

Dan Cohen: Former city Council President, former Republican running as an independent (16)
Don Samuels: City Councilor, only prominent black candidate, Democrat (16)
Betsy Hodges: City Councilor, Democrat (14)
Mark Andrew: Former Hennepin County Commissioner, former state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party chair, Democrat (10)
Cam Winton: Attorney, Republican running as independent (9)
Jackie Cherryhomes: Former City Council President, Democrat (7)
Stephanie Woodruff: Accountant, Democrat, endorsed by Independence Party (5)
Bob Fine: Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board member, Democrat (1)
Other: A bunch of Some Dudes including this guy (6)
Undecided: (16)
Despite leaving the City Council in the early 1970s, Cohen's media blitz has tied him for first at least for now. Andrew's camp is countering this poll with a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner internal, which has Andrew leading Hodges 27 to 18 percent, with Samuels in third with 10.

Making this race all the harder to handicap is the presence of ranked-choice voting, a seemingly simple concept that's surprisingly tough to summarize. But if you'd like to learn more about how it works, the Star Tribune offers a good explanation. It looks like a certainty that this race will be up in the air until all the votes are fully counted. (Darth Jeff)

Grab Bag:

Polltopia: It's been a long while since we've encouraged folks to vote for a particular state in PPP's weekly "where should we poll?" poll, but for the first time all cycle, the firm is offering West (by God!) Virginia as an option. Political analysts are keenly aware of the lack of quality polling out of the Mountain State this year, and it seems that PPP's obligations have precluded it from going into the field here. But evidently that's changed, and what's more, Natalie Tennant's entry on behalf of the Democrats makes this a race worth polling now. So please, for the love of data, pick West Virginia!

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  VA-Gov (8+ / 0-)

    Quinnipiac says 44-41. Not sure why they have Cuccinelli so close since they also find his favorables tanking and McAuliffe winning on the issues. Paleo will no doubt have the link shortly.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 05:09:21 AM PDT

    •  You rang? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, LordMike, itskevin

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 05:23:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Libertarian getting 7% (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, Amber6541, LordMike

      You'd think those would be Republican voters, but who knows.

      TMac's unfavorability, although lower than Cooch's, is what's keeping this race competitve.  

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 05:32:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Sarvis vote is split pretty evenly here (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, Amber6541, LordMike, itskevin

        Same as McAuliffe's favorables. Yet Cuccinelli is at -17 so I don't really understand how they find him this close. The undecided is slightly more favorable to McAuliffe as it was in the Harper poll yesterday.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:01:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  some of them may decide not to vote at all. (0+ / 0-)

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 07:24:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hahaha. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Stude Dude

      Voters think that McAuliffe is more honest then Cuccinelli! I agree, but the right-wing explodes in fury as a smooth-talking, sleazy businessman runs laps around a hypocritical cultural warrior.

      McAuliffe actually has run a more earnest campaign, while Cuccinelli tries to hide from his background colored by 19th century social values to bow to Virginia's relatively socially liberal electorate.

      I love that the GOP thinks they can win a race in Virginia by attacking our candidate as an unethical businessman. You can't do that when the electorate knows your party's main power base is sleazy businessmen!

      Think about this: we are about to elect a second DNC chairman to statewide office in the swingiest of swing states. Suck on that, GOP.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:04:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm going to take a guess and say that it is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Odysseus

      because McAuliffe is such an uninspiring candidate that he is only marginally better than a right-wing lunaticwith a 17th century mentality. If the goopers had nominated a more acceptable moderate to conservative business type, McAuliffe would probably be toast.

      If there is no accountability for those who authorized torture, we can no longer say that we are a nation of laws, not men.

      by MikePhoenix on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:57:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI Senate: Rep. Amash declines run (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, Amber6541, LordMike, Odysseus

    Looks like the last major GOP candidate declined to run for the open Michigan Senate seat:

    Cascade Township — A Republican congressman from western Michigan has decided not to run for the U.S. Senate seat opening with the retirement of Democrat Carl Levin.

    Justin Amash of Kent County’s Cascade Township confirmed on Twitter Tuesday night that he won’t run. The libertarian conservative has gained a higher profile in the House with a challenge to the National Security Agency’s collection of Americans’ phone records.

    Amash’s announcement further clears the way for former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to proceed with her campaign.

    Land is the only declared Republican candidate. Democrats have coalesced behind U.S. Rep. Gary Peters of Bloomfield Township. The other known Republican still interested in running is Ypsilanti cardiologist Rob Steele, who’s had backing from the tea party.

    Amash’s decision was first reported by the National Journal.

    MIGOP, you're stuck with Terri, so you better make the best of it.
    •  Here's the question: (6+ / 0-)

      Given that the publicly-available polling to date shows Terri Lynn Land making the race competitive, why is the GOP establishment so hesitant to come behind her?

      What do they know that we don't?

      "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

      by Australian2 on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:40:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because no one believes those polls (0+ / 0-)

        The poll showing the race even was done by Steve Mitchell, a Michigan Repub hack that had Romney up in Michigan a week before the election last November. Few people take his numbers seriously.  The EPIC-MRA poll had some sample issues (equal number of repubs and dems in a Michigan sample is not credible).

        Privately, most state repubs are conceding the Senate race.  They'll make Gary Peters spend money (and raise money that could conceivably go to other Dems, i.e. Mark Schauer) but they aren't really serious about winning the election.

        •  Sorry about the delay; (0+ / 0-)

          Just followed up. It's not just Mitchell finding the race competitive.

          EPIC-MRA has Peters up by 1 point (38-37), Denno shows a tie (39-39) and PPP shows a five-point gap (41-36).

          I'm not saying it won't be an uphill slog for Land, but the fact remains that those are the numbers of a competitive race.

          "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

          by Australian2 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:48:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  CA-AD45 special election results (0+ / 0-)

    Last night, we had a free-for-all with 7 Democrats and 3 Republicans and 1 no party preference candidate all running to replace Bob Blumenfield (D), who resigned after he won his election to the Los Angeles City Council.

    It's a heavily Democratic district, and I thought we'd see two Democrats make the top two.  Instead, Rep. Brad Sherman's (D) district director Matt Dababneh (D) finished first with 24.6% of the vote, and some Republican named Susan Shelley finished second with 21.4% of the vote.  (She ran for Congress in CA-30 in the infamous Berman-Sherman fight, and got 4% of the vote in the top two primary last year.)

    Two other Democrats that had been getting some attention in this assembly race were Damian Carroll (6.6%) and Jeff Ebenstein (13.9%), who are both staffers to L.A. City Councilmen, but they finished far behind those two.

    So Dababneh will face off against Shelley, most likely on November 19th, it seems.  And given the blue tilt of the district, you'll most likely see a Dababneh win.

    The DKE people who were at Netroots Nation know how I feel about this.

  •  CA-SD26 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    There was also a special election runoff for our state senate last night, with Assemblywoman Holly Mitchell (D) crushing Mervin Evans (D) 80.6%-19.4% in this very blue district as well.  No big surprise, but it does open up yet another state assembly seat as we continue to play musical chairs here in California with all these special elections.  She replaces Curren Price (D), who also resigned after he won his race to the Los Angeles City Council (just like Blumenfield in my comment above).  We already have the 27 seats out of 40 necessary for the 2/3s supermajority; Mitchell makes it 28 Democrats, so she provides what I've termed the "Lieberman buffer".

    It also means I (and I think frontpager Dante as well) will be looking for a new person to represent us in the Assembly.  (Fran Pavley's my state senator, so nothing's changed on that front.)


    Oh, and next Tuesday we get another special election runoff in CA-AD52 to replace Norma Torres (D), who moved up to the state senate earlier this year.  The two candidates are Freddy Rodriguez (D) and Paul Leon (no party preference).  Rodriguez should win that one, and give Democrats the supermajority again in the Assembly as well.  We currently have 53 with the two vacancies in safe Dem districts.  We need 54 for the 2/3s supermajority.

  •  McGinty (0+ / 0-)

    Wasn't McGinty going to try to paint herself as a "pro-business Democrat"? How does that maker he different from New Dem Allyson Schwartz?

  •  What has Quinn *done* that makes him such (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, askew

    damaged goods? You'd think that in a State where the last however many Governors are behind bars, Illinois people would actually be happy at the idea of a reasonably honest Governor.

    Although I do concede that the tax increases have been pretty steep since Quinn took office.

    "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

    by Australian2 on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:35:44 AM PDT

    •  Didn't balance the budget. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Australian2

      If you want the ongoing story, read CapitolFax.  It it probably the best Illinois Political blog.

      The fundamental issue is that citizens were told that the tax increases would balance the budget and fix the pension shortfall.  However, they didn't.  When you promise something like that, you had better DELIVER.

      TIME: Why Illinois is Going Bankrupt

      It’s not quite fair to say that Illinois officials are doing nothing to defuse the most threatening pension time bomb in America. Darn close to nothing, that’s fair...
      [...]
      More to the point: awareness of the pension mess is not really the problem in Illinois. Everyone has known for years that the state is a fiscal wreck, with Exhibit A being the smoking crater in the pension fund. Thanks in large part to the rapidly growing slice of state spending that goes to pensions, Illinois has gone ten years without a genuinely balanced budget, and the state was essentially broke even before the Great Recession hit. Now it is roughly 300 days behind in its payments to vendors—despite having tried every accounting trick in the book to hide the red ink. In fact, awareness of the problem inspired the state legislature to raise taxes and deposit some actual money in the pension fund last year, rather than toss in the usual IOUs.
      [...]
      Quinn and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel both urged the legislature to tackle the crisis during last year’s session. “The day of reckoning has arrived,” Emanuel warned. All sorts of repairs were floated: raising the retirement age for public employees, increasing employee contributions, freezing cost-of-living increases, shifting younger workers into 401-(k) style savings. Quinn even proposed that responsibility for teacher retirement plans should be shifted to local school boards.  You can guess what the locals thought about that.

      Even after Squeezy’s debut, the result was nil. Public employee unions are a powerful force in heavily Democratic Illinois, and they have not only clout but the law on their side. The contracts that grant retirement benefits to public employees are guaranteed by the state constitution, the unions argue. Such promises must be kept. Stymied by so many unpleasant options, the legislature stalled during its regular session, dodged Quinn’s call for a special session, and punted during a lame-duck session that ended early this month.

      So much for the day of reckoning.

      There are a lot of other people Quinn is busy pissing off too.  It's disappointing, and it didn't have to be this way.  But it is.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 08:12:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, if the money's not there, it's not there. (0+ / 0-)

        Unlike the Federal Government, Illinois is genuinely limited in what it can do to source extra revenue....and it seems that Quinn has done his damnedest to do so. But frankly, thanks to the profligate spending of the previous two decades which underfunded the Constitutionally-guaranteed pension funds, he's left with little choice but to either go to Washington for the money (not gonna happen without a D House, and probably not then) or start cutting back lots in order to balance the books.

        I hate it, but those are the options. Can the public sector unions be persuaded to make some concessions to avert the disaster?

        "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

        by Australian2 on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 08:34:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They pay more than most now. (0+ / 0-)

          Inquiring minds want to know about teacher pensions and Quinn's reforms

          Q: Who pays that share now?

          A: You, for the most part. And me. All of us who pay taxes in Illinois. The local districts chip in just a little more than half a percent. The teachers then pay 9.4 percent of their salaries into the pension fund.

          Screen shot 2012-04-27 at 12.07.58 AMQ: That’s a big bite.

          A: It is. And quite a bit larger than the 6.2 percent of income up to $110,100 that most of us kick into Social Security, a system in which our teachers don’t participate. But the payoff can also be big.
          [...]

          That part about teachers not paying into Social Security is important.  My four years spent working for UIUC and paying into SURS don't count for anything, because I didn't reach the five year vesting threshold.

          And I will not let the state off the hook for failing to properly pay matching funds.  Things cost what they cost.  Lying about the cost doesn't help anyone.

          -7.75 -4.67

          "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

          There are no Christians in foxholes.

          by Odysseus on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 10:12:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Marist has first poll our on NYC Mayor's race. (6+ / 0-)

    With the Decision Points Theater, the George W. Bush Presidential Library becomes the very first Presidential Library to feature a Fiction Section.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 06:45:21 AM PDT

  •  NY Mayor Trivia Question... (0+ / 0-)

    Bill De Blasio has been elected to prior office as a Democrat, but Joe Lhota has not been elected to prior office as a Republican (he in fact has never held elected office.)

    First, Who was the last Republican Nominee for Mayor of New York to have held elected office prior to being the Republican Nominee?

    Second. Who was the last Republican Nominee for Mayor of New York to have held elected office as a Republican prior to being the Republican Nominee?

    •  My guess... (0+ / 0-)

      ...is that John Lindsay was the last Republican nominee for mayor of NYC to have held elected office prior to being the Republican nominee, and the last one to have held elected office as a Republican prior to being the Republican nominee?

  •  is IL-Gov 2014 like NJ-Gov 2009 - a GOP win? (0+ / 0-)

    If IL Dem Gov Quinn is so unpopular and if Dems are stuck with him as the nominee in 2014, will this be like NJ-Gov race in 2009 with the unelectable Jon Corzine as the Dem nominee?  Everyone knew he could not win.  People tried to talk him out of running.  He refused to step aside - and sure enough he could not win.  NJ got a GOP Gov, Christie.

    Ugh.

  •  Clark seems to have money. (0+ / 0-)

    So far, here in the 5th: 3 mailings from Clark, one from Sciortino, none from anyone else.

    (leaning toward Sciortino, personally)

    The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

    by raboof on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 09:56:59 AM PDT

  •  Minneapolis polling (0+ / 0-)

    Even though it makes sense to be wary of an internal poll, it's also the case that campaigns need accurate information, and they're sometimes right. The results are very different from the Star Tribune poll, but Mark Andrew's pollster has the better record. The Star Tribune used Pulse, a subsidiary of Rasmussen, and I wouldn't believe their results without confirmation from somewhere else. The idea that Don Samuels is in first place with few other signs of support, and Dan Cohen is second when almost no one has heard of him, stretches credulity. I understand why the Star Tribune replaced Mason Dixon given their awful record last year, but they seem to have switched to the only worse pollster.

    My own take: the top tier is Andrew and Hodges. One of them will be the next mayor. Samuels has some real support so he's the second tier. There's a third tier o Cherryhomes, Winton, and Cohen, and then everybody else can be lumped together getting the votes of family and campaign volunteers, and that's pretty much it.

  •  Ranked choice voting (0+ / 0-)

    The ranked choice voting used in Minneapolis isn't all that complicated. It's a form of IRV. You pick the candidate you want most as your first choice, the candidate you want second as your second choice, and whoever you want third as your third choice. If no one gets a majority, the bottom candidate is out, and that candidate's voters get their ballots counted for their second choice. Repeat until someone has an outright majority. It's how we know we can have a situation where a bunch of Democrats split the Democratic majority's votes and let the only two Republicans through the primary. In other words, what happened in that one California congressional seat, where two Republicans got through the jungle primary in a Democratic district, can't happen here.

  •  Yep, West (by God) Virginia! (0+ / 0-)

    Thanks David and all of you other lovely Dkos poll decipherers!

    OWS (Occupy Pittsburgh) - REAL MOVEMENT of, by, for AND from the people!

    by waiting for lefty on Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 11:14:36 AM PDT

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