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Leading Off:

3Q Fundraising: Though the federal government shutdown is, of course, sucking up most of the available political oxygen, some third quarter fundraising numbers have started trickling out from various campaigns. The real question is whether the FEC's website will still be functioning should the shutdown continue until the reporting deadline on Oct. 15, but for now, here's what the eager beavers are sharing:

NJ-Sen (July 24 to Sept. 26): Cory Booker (D): $2.85 million raised, $2.6 million cash-on-hand; Steve Lonegan (R): $1 million raised, $241,000 cash-on-hand

IL-Gov: Bruce Rauner (R): $1 million raised; Dan Rutherford (R): $1.2 million cash-on-hand

CA-52: Carl DeMaio (R): $325,000 raised, $700,000 cash-on-hand

MI-11: David Trott (R): $425,000 raised

Gubernatorial:

NJ-Gov: Monmouth's new poll has GOP Gov. Chris Christie beating Democratic state Sen. Barbara Buono 56-37, which is actually one of the smallest margins ever seen in this race. What's more, that 37 percent is the highest mark Buono's ever achieved and offers some hope that she'll at least break into the 40s.

But to offer a note of caution (on a topic I've raised before), Monmouth's sample size for this poll was 615 likely voters, while their new Senate poll—the one that put Cory Booker up just 13—had 571 respondents. The two polls have the same field dates, so I can only conclude the Senate portion piggybacked on the gubernatorial survey. But does anyone really believe that the special election for Senate, which is taking place on a Wednesday in mid-October, will really see 93 percent of the turnout of the normal November election for governor?

As I've said, I think trying to poll both races at once is queering the numbers. My suspicion is that the heavily pro-Christie electorate we're bound to see next month is contaminating the data for the Senate race, which is apt to be a low-turnout affair. Then again, this kind of special election has typically been a recipe for Democratic underperformance, so it may well be that Booker will post an Ed Markey-like win regardless of how Christie may be affecting the polls.

TX-Gov: What a weird poll.

House:

AL-06: Somewhat surprisingly, state Sen. Cam Ward has already decided that he won't seek the seat being left open by his old boss, Rep. Spencer Bachus. Ward would have been a strong contender in the GOP primary in this ruby red district, but he cited both Congress's dysfunction and his desire to care for his autistic daughter as reasons for standing aside. Another Republican, state Rep. Jack Williams, also says he won't run, though like Ward, he plans to seek re-election to the legislature.

NH-01: Conservative radio host Jeff Chidester says he's considering a bid for Congress but says he doesn't expect to decide "for several months." Ex-Rep. Frank Guinta is already running in the Republican primary, and outgoing UNH business school dean Dan Innis is also likely to join once he steps down from his current job next month. They're all trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who won this seat back from Guinta following her loss in 2010 after two terms in office.

NY-01: Former SEC attorney George Demos just announced that he'll run for Congress for the third cycle in a row next year. Demos first sought the GOP nomination in 2010, losing 45-30 to businessman Randy Altschuler. In 2012, Demos once again ran in the primary but dropped out just weeks before Election Day, claiming he had to focus on his wedding (as if he didn't remember when he was getting married), handing the race to Altschuler a second time. The GOP is eager to challenge Rep. Tim Bishop, but Demos isn't likely to be the answer, with one unnamed Republican saying he's "as welcome in CD 1 as head lice."

Other Races:

FL State House Last month, Democrats suggested via internal polling that they had a shot at nabbing a Republican-held state House seat in a special election set for Oct. 15. Now, there is independent polling that confirms it. The poll, taken by the local firm St. Pete Polls, has Republican Bill Gunter and Democrat Amanda Murphy tied at 44 percent. (The earlier Dem poll had Murphy up 40-39.)

This Pasco County-based district was held previously by Mike Fasano, who has pointedly refused to endorse Gunter. In fact, Fasano this week blasted an outside group for invoking his name in a pro-Gunter mailer. Gunter would love to pretend that Fasano is on his side—the St. Pete poll shows that, by a 49-18 margin, a Fasano endorsement would help more than hurt the endorsed candidate. (Steve Singiser)

NYC Public Advocate: On Tuesday night, New York City Councilwoman Letitia James defeated state Sen. Dan Squadron in the Democratic runoff for public advocate, 59 to 41. The public advocate, who is pretty much a civic ombudsman, is first in the line of succession to the mayoralty in the event of a vacancy. James had led Squadron 36-33 in the first round of voting, and she seemed to have more of a natural base in the low turnout runoff. James, who is African American, did extremely well in predominantly black areas and also performed strongly among Hispanics. (WNYC's precinct-level map is very illuminating.)

James also had extensive backing from the city's labor movement, including the Working Families Party. Indeed, James was first elected to the city council in 2003 on the WFP line alone, making her the first such person in all of New York state. She has subsequently run on the Democratic line, as she did in this race, and she'll join a Democratic ticket this fall that includes the current public advocate, Bill de Blasio, who is running for mayor, and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, the party's nominee for comptroller. No Republican is on the ballot in the public advocate's race, so James is all but guaranteed victory in November.

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:

South Carolina SD-42: Not surprisingly, this was a blowout for Democrat Marlon Kimpson. He won with 80 percent of the vote, while Republican Billy Shuman got 19 and Libertarian Alex Thornton received 1.
As we noted, this is a roughly 78 percent Obama seat, so it's nice to see a special election with no Democratic dropoff for once, especially in a heavily minority district. But that said, we're still talking about an election with fewer than 8,000 votes cast.

Grab Bag:

Census: With the Census Bureau website (along with many others) offline thanks to the government shutdown, researchers looking for an alternative will want to check out Census Reporter, a project funded by the Knight Foundation to make census data more accessible. Note, though, that the site does not appear to include the newest batch of data from the 2012 American Community Survey, and the available congressional district breakdowns use lines from before the most recent round of redistricting.

Maps: If you've been following the whip counts on which members of the House GOP are in favor of a "clean" continuing resolution to fund the federal government, you've probably noticed that it's heavy on Virginians. It even includes people like Randy Forbes and Rob Wittman who don't appear on anybody's list of moderate squishes. If you're wondering why, take a peek at this Washington Post map of the nation's largest concentrations of federal employees, by metropolitan area—and thus where the effects of the federal shutdown will be felt the hardest. The Norfolk/Virginia Beach area is number two in the nation, thanks in large part to a big Navy presence.

Interestingly, number one isn't Washington, D.C., as you might expect, but rather Colorado Springs, home to a number of Air Force facilities. (D.C. clocks in at number four.) In fact, almost all of the top 10 metro areas on the list have a large numbers of military, like Honolulu, San Diego, El Paso, and San Antonio. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  BLS probably won't report jobs numbers tomorrow (0+ / 0-)

    due to government shutdown. is it possible that there won't any number for October?

  •  The shutdown has reduced Jennifer Rubin to begging (4+ / 0-)

    This is too funny: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    "Please, Democrats, save us from ourselves!!!"

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 05:31:43 AM PDT

  •  Walsh a go in MT-SEN and Rep Jones gets primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Good news, as of now we can't get anyone better and this gives us a shot:
    http://www.politico.com/...

    And one of our more favorite Republicans, Walter Jones, is getting a primary challenger:
    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  Reposting this result... (3+ / 0-)

    It has to be an outlier.  I can't imagine DeBlasio is doing this well (71-21):

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 05:53:43 AM PDT

  •  Montana Senate (6+ / 0-)

    Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Walsh has announced his bid for Montana's open U.S. Senate seat, currently held by Max Baucus (D). Walsh has a website splash page and announcement video at http://www.johnwalsh2014.com

    I pledge allegiance to liberty and justice for all.

    by childers moof on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 05:54:43 AM PDT

    •  Finally, a step up from Some Dude (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      micsimov, LordMike

      prospects! It always mystified me that Brian Schweitzer was so uninterested in the job. I know he's not a great fan of Washington, but he has to know as well as anyone that absent his candidacy, any Republican is favoured.

      "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

      by Australian2 on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 07:28:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gov Schweitzer was so awesome at DNC last yr, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Odysseus

        and with all the teabag craziness crippling the nation right now, I really wish he would reconsider.  I don't know anything about John Walsh but am heartened that he at least has a record as a D of winning statewide.

        The Democrats care about you after you're born. --Ed Schultz

        by micsimov on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 08:40:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  If you thought that the NYC Mayoral polls (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin, Aquarius40, micsimov

    were a little too optimistic, there is a new Quinnipiac poll out.  Whereas the prior Q poll (right after the primary) had DeBlasio leading Lhota 66-25, this new poll, following the McCarthyite attacks by Lhota on DeBlasio, shows DeBlasio 71 Lhota 21.   A 50 point lead!

    With the Decision Points Theater, the George W. Bush Presidential Library becomes the very first Presidential Library to feature a Fiction Section.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 05:58:27 AM PDT

  •  Good for the corn. (3+ / 0-)

    State Senator Kent Sorenson has resigned from the Iowa legislature (10/2/13).  The GOP senator was all but done after his run-in with the law.
    The current party breakdown in the statehouse (before yesterday) was 26-24 Democrat in the State Senate. The GOP held a comfortable (but not insurmountable) lead in the House.
    Now lightning has struck just south of Des Moines.
    As of today (10/3/13), this appears to be a wide-open race. "Bugs Bunny" could have beaten Sorenson, even in as red a district as #13...but now?
    It will be a challenge to both parties to come up - fast - with a candidate, as the seat will probably be filled by - or soon after - the opening day of the legislature. Nobody knows what will happen.
    The stakes:  Republicans will be going all-out (again) to flip the state senate to their side...and if they do that and keep the house, look for a LOT of the same crappy results here as in Wisconsin.  Democrats could win this, and if they were to ride a crest of resentment(or whatever)next fall to take the House AND governorship, it would make for very interesting times around the statehouse.  

    It's about time I got off my lazy butt and do something...

    by NoStampTax on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 06:06:54 AM PDT

  •  Re the weird TX poll - I believe the Texas Lyceum (0+ / 0-)

    was formed over drinks at Bentwater Country Club in Dallas by folks who typically support the hateful RW agenda; the poll is suspect, in my view anyways.

  •  Is Booker playing rope a dope? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    micsimov, lonemorriscodem

    I haven't seen any adds for him but I have for Longegan. A few recent polls suggest that the race has tightend a bit. Just wondering if he's planning a big blitz at the end to put it away.

    •  -and why is he sitting on so much $? (0+ / 0-)

      Hey, Cory, the point of raising campaign money is to spend it on the actual campaign. I better not wake up the day after the special and find out you're the new Martha Coakley.

      •  saving it for 2014 (0+ / 0-)

        He has to run again next year and he may have a tougher opponent. No way he loses but he shouldn't be coasting this much.
        I don't see Any republican getting over 45% in a senate race but he should not take anything for granted.

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          He should be tryign to win big and putting it away early so as to scare off any would be challenger in 14. Plus a less than impressive win also damages him as a potential national star and just serves to encourage NJ Republicans to take other tough races.

  •  AZ-01: AZ House Speaker Andy Tobin (R) running (0+ / 0-)

    According to the Prescott Daily Courier:

    Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin, R-Paulden, says he will seek the 1st Congressional District seat in 2014. Tobin is likely to face at least two other Republicans in the primary, including another member of the Legislature who already announced, before the winner takes on incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick of Flagstaff.
    ...
    Tobin lives in the 4th Congressional District, although it's not far away from CD1. His Legislative District 1 included Flagstaff, Williams, Tusayan and all of the Verde Valley until 2012 when decadal redistricting took place. He has lived in Yavapai County since 1993 including Prescott, Prescott Valley, Dewey and now Paulden. He is serving his fourth term in the state House so he won't be eligible to run for the state House again.
    ...
    CD1 is the state's largest district, running from Flagstaff through eastern Arizona counties and then west into parts of Pinal County. It includes the Navajo Nation, where Kirkpatrick has strong support. "If they call a carpetbagger somebody that is as close to the line as I can be and was carved out, it is what it is. But I am the rural legislator with the most experience," Tobin told the Associated Press last month while he was considering a run for CD1. "Clearly I'm the only one with a record cutting taxes, growing jobs, fighting for a pro-life agenda."

    Tobin doesn't have to live in the congressional district he represents, but he does have to live in the legislative district he represents. He said when he wins CD1, he will have a second home there to better represent that huge district. Tobin doesn't have to quit his job as House speaker while running for CD1 because of a change in the state's resign-to-run law.
    ...
    First-term Arizona Rep. Adam Kwasman of Oro Valley and Springerville businessman and rancher Gary Kiehne, a political newcomer, already announced their candidacy for the Republican nomination in CD1. Republicans believe they have a good chance of wresting the district from Kirkpatrick, who was ousted after one term in 2010 but took back the seat in 2012 even though presidential candidate Mitt Romney won in the district. Of the district's approximately 374,000 registered voters, Democrats have 143,000 and Republicans 114,000. But there also are 115,000 independents, and the district can swing to either party with their votes.

    America is not 316 million individual boats afloat on an ocean; America is an ocean supporting 316 million boats.

    by Jimdotz on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 10:29:14 AM PDT

  •  re: Colo Springs: not just Air Force. (0+ / 0-)

    Fort Carson is one of the largest army bases in the country, too. In terms of Air Force, there's the Academy, Ent Air Force Base, Peterson Field, Schriever, and, of course, NORAD, whose most important task is tracking Santa's travels each Christmas Eve.

    A homo in a bi-national relationship - at 49, I had to give up my career, leave behind my dying father, my family & friends and move to Europe. And I'm one of the *lucky* ones: Immigration Equality

    by aggieric on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 12:39:47 PM PDT

    •  Deadline (0+ / 0-)

      So, according  tothis, the drop dead date for resolution of the CR and debt ceiling will be Dec24, noon?  Santa's progress cant be derailed, or a lot of legislators will find themselves in trouble with their children, or grandchildren

  •  Is anyone organizing phonebanking? (0+ / 0-)
    FL State House Last month, Democrats suggested via internal polling that they had a shot at nabbing a Republican-held state House seat in a special election set for Oct. 15. Now, there is independent polling that confirms it. The poll, taken by the local firm St. Pete Polls, has Republican Bill Gunter and Democrat Amanda Murphy tied at 44 percent. (The earlier Dem poll had Murphy up 40-39.)
    We need to make the most of our chances.

    -7.75 -4.67

    "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

    There are no Christians in foxholes.

    by Odysseus on Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 03:54:14 PM PDT

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