It was more than predictable. The GOP has been saying ever since they capitulated on the taxes. They have been planning to shut down the government and threaten to default on the country’s bills if they don’t get what they want. They have said it over and over and over again. Anyone who is not expecting it has either been a) not paying attention to politics, b) totally naïve or c) brain dead. It’s like a man who tells a woman he is never going to get married at the beginning of a relationship. Deep down most women believe they can change his mind and are surprised when months/years down the line they still aren’t married. This is no surprise.
My last post talked about the Republican knight in shining armor that will ride to the rescue, and solve the crisis being the next GOP nominee for POTUS in 2016. This of course presupposed a shutdown which today is a reality. It should be noted that in order to be a hero, there has to be a crisis. There is no need to act precipitously or it will minimize the momentum of the heroic achievement. The longer the government is shut down the more pressure there is for a solution. And the closer we get to October 17 with the government shut down, the more pressure there is for a DUAL solution. It is coming to the rescue, riding in at precisely the right time with that solution that creates the moment and the momentum that goes along with it.
What is the solution? Well, there are a limited number of solutions that can play out.
1) Neither side caves and the government stays shut down indefinitely and the bills don’t get paid. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Do I need to say that again???? OK, IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! This scenario is not sustainable. Calmer heads will prevail eventually.
2) POTUS Obama gives in to the GOP Demands. AGAIN….NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! POTUS Obama has said since the beginning of the year REPEATEDLY he would not negotiate over the very things the GOP wants to negotiate over. If we are to believe the GOP when they say they would shut down the government, it is reasonable to believe the POTUS. He has right on his side and the longer the GOP is the problem, more and more of the people are going to support him. After all, the GOP would be the first to say that the USA does not negotiate with terrorists. In many people’s minds, the GOP is not much different.
So here is REALITY……….EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A VOTE TO REOPEN THE GOV’T AND PAY THE BILLS and it will eventually play out one of the scenarios below.
3) The majority of the House GOP will come together with the Dems and vote to reopen the gov’t and fund it. Rep Boehner has this insane rule that he won’t bring a bill to the floor for a vote unless the MAJOIRTY of their caucus will support the bill. So eventually there will be a majority who will no longer be afraid of a tea party challenger because the tea party will be seen as the crazies who held up government. The moderates will be seen as the heroes who put their politics aside and did what is right.
Now this takes a leader and this still remains to be seen. Rep Peter King seems to be the obvious front runner but I won’t be surprised if a dark horse jumps out from the shadows to craft a solution that the majority of the GOP and DEM can live with and force Rep Boehner to bring the bill to the floor. By his own rules, he would then be forced to bring it to the floor and the House could move forward.
Now, this scenario may be playing out even as I write this. I will not be surprised if this option happens. But don’t look for it to happen anytime soon. I suspect you will start hearing more about this option in about a week to 10 days. Remember that the longer the government is shut down and the closer to the debt ceiling date the more pressure is building towards a crisis. Crises that must be solved by a heroic leader who can bring together two parties….or at least appear to. I’m curious who the politically savvy ones left are in the GOP.
And of course this means the end of Speaker Boehner as speaker. But seriously, I’m sure he knows that his tenure as speaker is questionable at best no matter which way he goes. But at least he can adhere to two things…….a)he is a man of his word when he said he would only allow a bill to the floor that was supported by the majority of the GOP and b) he was not the one who capitulated to either reopening the gov’t or the debt ceiling issue.
This scenario is the most likely solution.
4) Prominent and very rich members of the GOP media/fund raising machine will put pressure on Boehner to allow a vote without having the majority of the GOP support. They will make it apparent to Boehner that the longer he waits the BIGGER THE FAILURE and the more the GOP $$$ will dry up for next year. GOP candidates who are not tea partiers will be seen as spineless and helpless to stand up to the crazy element in their party and will not get funding to even run a primary challenge against a tea party candidate.
This is serious because the GOP was primed to perhaps win control of BOTH HOUSES of Congress and this is doing SERIOUS DAMAGE to both voting and fundraising. GOP pollsters understand that Congressional districts have been crafted on have the majority of existing voters being GOP voters even though those voters are not in the majority of that district. If the GOP’s efforts motivate the nonvoting population to vote Dem in 2014, POTUS Obama most likely will end his tenure with both houses being controlled by the Dems.
Of course, this option finishes Boehner’s career as speaker as well. Because he a)isn’t a man of his word when he said he would not allow a bill to be voted on unless it had the support of the majority of the GOP and b)he will be seen as part of the capitulation to the enemy (i.e. POTUS Obama) and heavily challenged next time it comes to a vote.
It will be interesting to watch the fight over this. It will define the direction the GOP takes toward the 2016 election cycle.
Most likely this scenario is being played out in part with the first solution. Key players in fundraising and strategy most likely are talking behind the scenes to moderate GOP members trying to put together a strong and sane majority to move forward. Because standing still will hurt the economy much the same way the financial collapse hurt the party in 2008. Remember the 2008 election gave the Dems the presidency and control of both houses in Congress. The results of their insane strategy will create pain and pain creates anger. And anger brings people out to vote when ordinarily the stay home. The longer their insane strategy to hold the country hostage to their demands, the more angry people they will be motivating to vote in 2014 that most likely would have stayed home and not voted. This can present some serious challenges to the GOP reelection even in districts they consider safe.
In the end, the government will reopen, the bills will get paid, and perhaps the country will have a new perspective on all the good things that government does. And once the country starts liking the Affordable Health Care Act, the GOP excuse for all the damage they are inflicting on people will no longer be valid and sustainable.
Again, the question remains: Who is going to be the NEW leader in the GOP? One hint…..ITWON’T BE A TEA PARTIER! The conclusion of this story will be played out and in a way it will be very interesting to watch even though it will come at a high cost to the country. But again, they don’t see it as doing damage to the country. They don’t care about that. They just want to do damage to POTUS Obama and the Dems.