Skip to main content

Shutting down the government may end up costing two Florida Republicans their seats in Congress  – and with it GOP control of the House of Representatives.

A series of polls released Sunday show just how damaging the shutdown has been for the GOP, including incumbents Steve Southerland (FL CD2) and C.W. Bill Young (FL CD 13).

The Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling compiled two dozen surveys from House districts around the country, taken from Oct. 2 through Oct. 4. Sample sizes were between 600 and 700 voters in each district.

The results for Southerland and Young should be enough to sound warning bells in each of their campaigns.

In Southerland’s North Florida district, his approval rating is upside down 41 to 44 percent. In a ballot test of Southerland vs. an unnamed “Democratic opponent”, Southerland trails by four points, 43 to 47 percent.

Democrat Gwen Graham, the daughter of former governor and U.S. Senator Bob Graham, is already running a spirited campaign against Southerland.

The government shutdown — framed by the poll as shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place — is opposed 60 to 32 percent of Congressional District 2 voters.

Southerland’s numbers get worse once respondents are told Southerland supported the government shutdown. Under that scenario, Southerland trails the unnamed Democrat 41 to 50 percent.

(Quick caveat: 51% of  the respondents in this poll self-identify as Democrat, 34% Republican, and 16% Independent.)

In Congressional District 13, the Tampa Bay Times‘ John Romano framed Young’s dire situation in a must-read Sunday column in which he criticizes Young for ‘abandoning’ John Boehner in order “to fall in step behind the smug tea party frat boys.”

The poll numbers bear out Romano’s assessment, suggesting that Young, indeed, is in electoral trouble.

Young’s district opposes the shutdown 67 to 28 percent, while disapproving of the 42-year member of Congress’ job performance 46% disapprove to 33% approve. In a ballot test between Young and an unnamed Democrat, Young trails 43 to 48 percent. The margin is 42 to 51 percent when respondents are told of Young’s support for the government shutdown.  

Young is currently opposed by Democrat Jessica Ehrlich, whom Young easily dispatched in 2012.

For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party’s favor.

Originally posted to SaintPetersBlog on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:54 PM PDT.

Also republished by DKos Florida.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Click here for the mobile view of the site