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It's become increasingly obvious to me, as I watch the GOP's shifting tactics, that they plan to take us into default.  You can tell by their every move.  They pass legislation that has no hope of being approved by the senate, they support forming committees that wouldn't even be able to agree on conferees by October 17th, their public statements are now completely devoid of actual demands.  They're now doing a PR blitz to insist that any default wouldn't be bad, and if it is, it's Obama's fault.  It's an attempt to control the story they know is coming, because they plan on making it happen.  They want a default.

And when you sit down and think about it, it is a completely logical position for them.

See, it's literally the last real move available to them in the Grand Game of US Politics. Defaulting is the only hope they have left to save their party.

 They see the polling numbers we see, they can read the demographic trend data, and they do know how elections are trending.  The GOP is in a death spiral, and the leadership knows it.  It can't re-position itself as less (insert insane right wing position) without losing the lunatic fringe that only cares about that issue.  They can't gain any more support by embracing those issues either, because any right wing fringe element that isn't voting GOP now will never vote GOP for pathological reason.  And the base they do have is becoming outnumbered and surrounded.  Eventually, they will splinter into a couple new parties, and one of them will become the second 'Major' party in US Politics.

The problem is the current people in the GOP leadership will not get to be in charge of that.  And everyone associated with the Old GOP, with the few exceptions of those who choose the right successor party, will be forced to the back bench, if not out of politics.  And so we come to the crux of the issue.

The GOP's leadership is taking a page from the McCain playbook.  They need a 'game changer'.  They need to take politics to a place where it's never been, because all other paths take them to extinction.  They need to Default.

We all assume a default will be bad on a lot of levels, because we can make logical inferences.  However, since we have never been to the land of Default before, we don't know what the political ramifications are.  It might reset political views.  It might nuke all the political parties approval ratings to 0%, thus making them even again.  The public might blame the president and democrats for not caving.  Who knows?  The only thing the GOP is sure of is they are doomed, politically,  if they follow any form of political conventional wisdom.  

The only move left is to flip the board across the room and let the pieces land where they may.

Please tell me I'm wrong, because I have never wanted to be convinced I am wrong more in my life.  God help us all if I'm right about this.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Plus, god is on their side. (10+ / 0-)

    It's all about christian solidarity. Until we crack that nut, the nation is finished.

    What is so unnerving about the candidacy of Sarah Palin is the degree to which she represents—and her supporters celebrate—the joyful marriage of confidence and ignorance. SAM HARRIS

    by Cpqemp on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 12:42:00 PM PDT

    •  I Hate Karl Rove (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sharman, IreGyre, mookins

      ... and he loathed the fundies that the R's courted.  Another dysfunctional subculture, with much in common with the Teahadists.

      Without music to decorate it, time is just a bunch of boring production deadlines or dates by which bills must be paid. ~ Frank Zappa ~

      by NCTim on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 03:36:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good diary. (9+ / 0-)

    And I completely agree with your assessment. The whole "debt limit isn't important, which is why we're using it to stop Obamacare!" nonsense is a direct result of trying to please everyone at the same time, instead of, ya know, doing the right thing and pleasing the majority of the country.

    Sometimes, I wonder why I consider myself a Democrat. Before too long though, dumb Republicans saying dumb things come along to remind me.

    by LnGrrrR on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 12:49:40 PM PDT

  •  Oh for the good old days of the Cold War (10+ / 0-)

    When mutually assured destruction was a deterrent.

    Now? The House is ruled by madmen.

    "He who fights monsters should see to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."

    by Hayate Yagami on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 12:50:38 PM PDT

    •  Not a deterrent to the House (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      viral

      which focussed like a laser not on government departments, but on hundreds, perhaps thousands of ordinary citizens. My father and many others lost their jobs, and some ended up in jail for contempt of Congress, because of their political beliefs and affiliations even decades before.

      It didn't destabilize the world economic system, but it destroyed families and lives and organizations (which were pressured to purge all their "communist" and "commie-sympathizer" members -- or else).

      Let us not remember those days as some sort of equilibrium. For our family and many others, it was a nightmare.

  •  You've got it on the nose (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CupaJoe, chantedor, ZedMont, Matt Z, Ree Zen

    This is a truly a Hail Mary for the GOP. Attempting one last blowout to make a lasting impact in the country, they resort to unfettered tribalism. Those of us who have seen the GOP's dark metamorphosis to its present state have seen the writing on the wall, and it's only fitting to the trend that the next threshold of extremism would be a sovereign debt default while a minority party. It's a struggle to reach a coup if I had to summarize this.

    "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." ~Edward Abbey ////\\\\ "To be a poor man is hard, but to be a poor race in a land of dollars is the very bottom of hardships." ~W.E.B. DuBois

    by rovertheoctopus on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 12:54:55 PM PDT

    •  And they still don't have a plan B. (0+ / 0-)

      The one thing that most Americans do know is that if the Rs break this, they have no way of reversing what they did and its consequences even if they do win in 2014, anymore than they did in 2008.

       In a way, if they default us all, they need to lose in 2014 so they can complain endlessly until people forget, that the horrible mess the Dems will then have to clean up is the one the Rs created, just like the last time.

  •  Remember Grover Norquist drowing the government (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chantedor, tofumagoo, RichM

    quote:

    My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.

    Grover Norquist

    I don't know, if the Republicans can't have their way, maybe the plan all along is to destroy the country (privatization, destroying democratic institutions, dismantling the government, destroying the environment etc...),,

    ...and it will only be habitable for the very rich which is their base anyway...or am I just looking at the glass half empty
    ?

    •  Yup... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dianna

      I commented earlier that we are in the 'Drowning in a bathtub' phase.

      “Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” - John Steinbeck

      by RichM on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:46:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Actually, they do have another choice.. (10+ / 0-)

    Pay attention and become relevant to a majority of the electorate.

    This is all very, very avoidable for them, but they have to become something other than frothing extremists.

    I know - democracy is hard.

    Howard Dean will always be my president.

    by 4democracy on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 12:58:51 PM PDT

    •  To become relevant to the country (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Linda1961

      is to them a horror because they see this country slowly becoming one which is not controlled by old white men. That is what they cannot abide. If they cannot retain control as they always have then this form of government no longer serves their purpose. If they can't win, let it burn. Classic abuser mentality.

      Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell. --Edward Abbey

      by ricklewsive on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 04:26:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You may have it right (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ZedMont, Matt Z, jennyp, Linda1961

    To raise the level of chaos in Washington may be the Republicans last hope of regaining their grip, but it may be equally likely to accelerate the decline of their party.  Time will tell, but given the factors in the post, I see the latter as more likely.

    Canem Praeteri, Cave Modo Hominem. (Never mind the dog, just watch out for the human)

    by T C Gibian on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:04:48 PM PDT

  •  They're winning!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, RichM

    the race to the bottom.  The sun will still rise the morning after and it will be more evidence that we don't really need the government.  You'll still be here...your retirement savings, not so much.

    Day after day, day after day, We stuck, nor breath nor motion; As idle as a painted ship, Upon a painted ocean. The Rime of the Ancient Mariner

    by JustBeKos on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:20:07 PM PDT

  •  Some, maybe. But only some (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ree Zen, bluebrain, Linda1961

    Don't forget, the wealthy make their money by having the current system remain more or less the same.  The board is tilted their way, and they want it tilted their way some more.  Knock the board across the room and they don't know what will happen to their position either.

    The problem is that Republicans have no grand strategy.  No real cohesion.  They are an angry, drunken giant lurching left and right, not really sure where they are going and destroying so much along the way.  Some people think they can drag the giant one way to their advantage.  Others think they can trick the giant into going another way.  The result is a huge amount of damage, no real direction, and everyone else has to live in fear of them.

    •  Forgot to mention (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Neon Mama, Christy1947, Linda1961

      I'm also wondering if there is a faction who want the default to make the stock market collapse, knowing that it will recover a few years down the raod.  People will panic and sell, and they will carpetbag and scoop it all up and make a fortune.  Just like a lot of people did with the last stock collpase.  Just like a lot of people did with the housing collapse.

  •  Good diary and comments. Don't worry, though. (5+ / 0-)

    There will not be a default.  What has become obvious to you has not escaped the attention of the president and democrats.

    President Obama will not tolerate a default.  He will unilaterally stop it.  I don't know how exactly, but he has a number of options.  He may have to do something that gets him impeached or that goes to the Supreme Court, or both, but he will do it.

    And what position will the Republicans be in then?  It will be undeniable that the president does NOT want default and WILL NOT tolerate it.  When he is attacked by Republicans it will be equally obvious that they DO want default, just as you say.

    And the Senate will never convict the president of anything.  Their rationale will be that this is a legitimate Constitutional conundrum, and the president was simply making the most rational decision to uphold his oath under the circumstances.

    His oath is to uphold the constitution, and if obeying the debt limit law results in violating the constitution (it will), he will disobey that law.

    To the business community and most average Americans, he will be the hero that saved the country.

    Do you think President Obama does not know what he is going to do?  Of course he does.  He's slowly but surely letting out more line, and the wacknuts are taking the bait.

    Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity -- George Carlin

    by ZedMont on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:26:09 PM PDT

    •  Obama could annex Canada by force if necessary (0+ / 0-)

      adding a bunch new progressive leaning Senators and Congressman.

      Push through a shitload of reforms- including real universal, single payer health care.

      Once it's all finished they can grant Canada it's independence until such time as another deranged band of fascists try holding the people as hostages to push through a doomsday agenda.

  •  I actually think you're wrong. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christy1947

    I think they figure if they breech the debt limit that means Obamacare will automatically be defunded and they'll then vote to re-fund everything but that...that way they'll be able to say "Is Obamacare worth economic collapse?" which, actually is what WE'RE saying now, but that's how they roll -- and they might get away with it...

    To let understanding stop at what cannot be understood is a high attainment. Those who cannot do it will be destroyed on the lathe of heaven.

    by PBJ Diddy on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:40:13 PM PDT

  •  I wrote a comment similar to this... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoregon, jennyp, sharman, Linda1961

    The other day.  Paraphrasing, I said they know they are losing.  The country will never be any whiter, never be more racists, never be as adverse to socialism, never be more religious as it is right now.  A caged, wounded animal is the most dangerous.  You may be right - they may see this as the only 'logical' choice - country be damned.  But I think it will go over worse than picking Palin - which may be one of the worst political blunders this nation has ever scene.

    “Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” - John Steinbeck

    by RichM on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:45:14 PM PDT

    •  No plan B. No Fed $ for any of those Red states (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Linda1961

      which historically get more Fed money than they give in, for a long long time, but no Fed money now to continue to do that. And those are poor, poor states. No Fema. No drought relief. No guaranteed incomes for farmers. No customers for Koch brothers Brawny towels or anyting else. And the blue states will have no incentive to give them any.

      What they're looking at is more of the money and the power devolving on states and cities they do not control - even Snydar can't remove ALL local government.

  •  I wouldn't be too surprised (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoregon, nchristine, Mage11an

    if they are looking at the default as a means to impeaching the usurper.

    The better I know people, the more I like my dog.

    by Thinking Fella on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:48:42 PM PDT

  •  I think if they continue to say, (0+ / 0-)

    "we can't borrow anymore money" the response should be, "tax the rich" borrow or tax. It cannot be any other way.

    Shut down due to Republican intransigence.

    by blueoregon on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:53:58 PM PDT

  •  They didn't have this gamed out right.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Linda1961

    mostly cause they guessed wrong about Obama and his poker skills..they never thought he would really go "all in" when they made their big bluff..

    They believed the debt ceiling was their leverage ..that shutting down the govt beforehand left them the additional threat of the default that would surely cause the President to capitulate.

    Well.. they got that wrong!

    Now, the Koch's and the rest are watching their huge portfolio wealth erode and be put in serious jeopardy over this situation.

    They will not do the default.. but they will keep the government shut down throughout ...

    sadly they have miscalculated - when the default is avoided, the market will not snap back and hold higher levels.. precisely cause of the economic damage of the continuing shut down.

    that is their error - they think there is no real cost to them for shutting down the govt whereas a default would cost them hugs sums..

    watch and see - debt ceiling crises will be avoided but the shut down will continue, and then their precious stock market wont give them the snap back they expect.

  •  How is it not sedition? eom (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LuvSet

    If debugging is the process of removing bugs, then programming must be the process of putting them in.

    by kharma on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 02:16:51 PM PDT

  •  I hope you're wrong (0+ / 0-)

    but I don't think you are.  And that scares the crap outta me.

    For quite some time (since Saint Ronny) seems that the GOP has catered to dumber and dumber people.  

    I am not a financial wiz, but one thing is apparent - the banking/credit/debt structure this country (and the whole world) relies on is very very complex.

    And the GOP right now, by saying hitting the debt limit won't hurt anything, is appealing to idiots (and end of timers).  Nobody with any business sense or intellect at all is buying that.

    But the sad fact is, Boehner and his crew CAN make default happen.  As others have commented here, Obama may be able to sidestep it for a while, but I don't think any of the tricks I've heard about will keep this country from economic collapse if the GOP persists.  

    And I believe, as the diarist does, that they see default as the only way "out".

    God, I hope I am wrong.  I hope the diarist is wrong.

  •  You're mostly right, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bluefin
    it's literally the last real move available to them in the Grand Game of US Politics.
    Not quite. It's the second to last thing.
    If they default, they put Obama in a position of having to break one of two conflicting laws.
    That's when they pounce with their real final move: Impeachment.
    They haven't been able to find anything illegal in his history or in his administration that is actually scandalous. So, force him into a situation where he either breaks one law or another or does nothing, allowing US to go down the tubes. Obama will not allow US to go down.
    Even if they lose, having a viable issue to impeach over will allow them to grind down the rest of Obama's term. And they are willing to destroy the world economy to do so.
    I sure hope their sponsors are working the phones, because Big Business is going to be hurt bad by this.

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 03:32:09 PM PDT

  •  A more likely explanation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ageing Hippie, Bluefin

    The wealthy people who fund and control the GOP understand that the government is the last barrier between them and absolute control of the US.

    The United States has always had a minority of Tories, people who believe that only the better sort of people ought to have a say in things.

    The American system is based on the shocking and counterintuitive idea that the more voices that are included, the better the process of decision-making (and execution) becomes. But at the inception of the country, Tories were able to limit the definition of "people" to white, property-owning males. The criterion of property was quickly eroded, then skin color, then gender. The addition of new voices has indeed improved the quality of governance, and--following the New Deal--it became clear that a middle class that did not live in economic fear of the wealthy was vital to good decision-making. People felt they had a stake in the good of the nation, and they sacrificed their time and talent for the betterment of the whole.

    Since 1980, all this has been eroded. The American people sold their birthright for cheap gas and false sense of national pride through militarism.

    But I wouldn't blame the modern Republican Party for much. As they have proven, these better sort of people are awful decision makers, embroiling us in unnecessary wars, squandering our national talent in recessions and relentless reductions of wages and job security, and letting the physical plant of the country weaken and crumble.  

    •  But what will happen to that better class when (0+ / 0-)

      there is no one to buy their goods and services? The Rs surely do not intend to rely on Southern white yeomanry supporting them - those folks are as a group among the brokest in the nation already. You can't just command folk to buy when they have no money and their jobs don't pay money sufficient to support the better sort. Issa lives off car alarms. The Koches live off paper towels.  De Mint and his live off the Koches. And most of the stuff people buy now is not even made here, but by people who have to get paid for it or they won't make and ship it.

      •  Doesn't matter how much they earn (0+ / 0-)

        What matters is now much richer than you they are.

        A person with food enough for two absolutely controls a person with no food at all. Give that person food for just him/herself, and s/he's completely independent. The first person isn't poorer in the second case, but s/he's way less powerful.  

        The rich intend to retreat into their gated preserves and let the rest of humanity starve.

  •  And then Impeachment. /nt (0+ / 0-)

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    —Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 06:56:13 PM PDT

  •  What if . . . (0+ / 0-)

    the establishment GOP does want to default but for a very different reason? What if the GOP realizes that the only way to become a relevant party and remake itself again is to get rid of the crazy? And what if the only way to get rid of the crazy is to go off the cliff with them?

    Kind of like having to cut off the arm to prevent further infection.

  •  succession option (0+ / 0-)

    Gippertopia

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