Sam Wang is developing a prediction model about the effect of the shutdown. He self-effacingly calls what he has come up with so far his "toy model."
But he says:
Right now, the model is saying: as long as the GOP stays on its current path, where the House goes next fall is an even-money bet.See the October 11th and 12th posts at the Princeton Election Consortium: http://election.princeton.edu/
He addresses Nate Silver's take on this as well. Worth the read. This shutdown has truly changed the playing field for 2014.
That is all.