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I love it when Scientists try to break down the data, to make it more understandable to us more "average humans."  Here is very good example of that:


By 2047, Coldest Years May Be Warmer Than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say

by Justin Gillis, NYTimes.com -- Oct 9, 2013

[...]
The Mora paper is a rarity: a class project that turned into a high-profile article in one of the world’s most prestigious scientific journals.

Dr. Mora is not a climate scientist; rather he is a specialist in using large sets of data to illuminate environmental issues. He assigned a class of graduate students to analyze forecasts produced by 39 of the world’s foremost climate models. The models, whose results are publicly available, are operated by 21 research centers in 12 countries, and financed largely by governments.

Thousands of scientific papers have been published about the model results, but the students identified one area of analysis that was missing. The results are usually reported as average temperature changes across the planet. But that gives little sense of how the temperature changes in specific places might compare with historical norms. “We wanted to give people a really relatable way to understand climate,” said Abby G. Frazier, a doctoral candidate in geography.
[...]


So the idea here is, that a non-climate scientist is crunching the data, to show what Climate Change will mean for individual locations across the globe, and also across local historical norms. In other words, what Climate Change will mean in your backyard.

Since many of us tend to reside in individual locations, over time, this could be interesting.


Here's the main 'techie concept' that Dr. Mora uses, which is as colorful in its imagery, as it is useful in its diagnosis ...

"Place your individual grid locations into their upright positions, and prepare for their inevitable 'climate departures.'"


[...]
So Dr. Mora and his students divided the earth into a grid, with each cell representing 386 square miles. Averaging the results from the 39 climate models, they calculated a date they called “climate departure” for each locationthe date after which all future years were predicted to be warmer than any year in the historical record for that spot on the globe.
[...]

To put it another way, for a given geographic area, “the coldest year in the future will be warmer than the hottest year in the past,” said Camilo Mora, the lead scientist on a paper published in the journal Nature.


So your individual “climate departure” is kind of reminiscence to "a point of no return" -- you know like when a plane is "open throttle" down the runway, with wheels about to leave the ground. That kind of departure -- except it's with respect to your local temperature norms, instead of our normal "grounded" state.

The New York Times article is very good. It gives the "expected departure times" for various cities across the globe.  Dr. Mora and company seem to imply humans may "adapt well" to these "new flight conditions" (some humans); but the Ecosystem critters without A/C -- not so much, since most of them haven't seen these kind of local Climate Liftoff conditions, often in millions of years.



       File: Purobeach plane takeoff.jpg -- From Wikimedia Commons


"This is the Captain speaking, multivariate species. On behalf of all of us at 'Head in Sand' Airways -- We hope you enjoy your flight!"



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Comment Preferences

  •  Saw that in Honolulu paper on Thursday (7+ / 0-)

    Say aloha to balmy weather, study says

    Need to register to see full article.  Teaser here

    From the article with login: (Little different from the NYTimes link)

    By 2043, 147 cities — more than half of those studied — will have shifted to a hotter temperature regime that is beyond historical records.

    The first U.S. cities to feel that would be Honolulu and Phoenix, followed by San Diego and Orlando, Fla., in 2046. New York and Washington will get new climates around 2047, with Los Angeles, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Austin and Dallas a bit later.

    Mora calculated that the last of the 265 cities to move into their new climate will be Anchorage, Alaska — in 2071. There’s a five-year margin of error on the estimates.

    Ref. link:http://www.staradvertiser.com/...
    •  simple math says I'll be 95 in 2047... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jamess

      ...exponential population growth v. the earth's finite capacity to sustain it says I'll be dead way before 2047. The margin for error? It depends on who you believe and on whose star to hitch your wagon to. The sun, wind, and geothermal energy alternatives make the most sense. But time to act before the frog comes to a boil is a luxury, the sense of urgency being lost in the translation. I've always said the dinosaurs would get the last laugh. They saw the meteor that ended their reign coming and couldn't do anything to save themselves. We see ours coming but stubbornly refuse to adapt and overcome the obstacles standing in the way. We cling to old ideas and refuse to think out of the box. And we scoff at-even ostracize and banish to outer darkness those brave souls who dare to defy conventional wisdom. "For the glory of the empire".

      "I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast, for I intend to go in harm's way." John Paul Jones

      by ImpeachKingBushII on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 11:57:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I've long wondered about the strange culture (6+ / 0-)

    ...of denial with which humans approach sound predictive mathematics that determine profound, and probably unsurvivable change.

    And I'm not talking about the climate deniers. Quite the opposite, in fact.

    We know that vast and destructive overpopulation of the human species has caused -- and will continue to cause -- the looming crisis of climate dislocation. (There is no other root cause.) And any intellectually honest scientist will tell you we need to immediately lose billions of people; perhaps half of the existing population on earth. (We will, in any event.)

    Projects like this one -- showing the crisis spots on earth -- spots that spell great consequence for the planet as a whole -- the field of climate science is dominated by reports with this perspective.

    But I know only a handful of scientists that quietly discuss the spots of likely survival.

    The tipping point was reached more than a decade ago. All US intelligence assessments (along with open source intelligence) describe the coming climate catastrophe as the single greatest national security threat facing this or any nation.

    There is too much money to be made from carbon spew to expect policy change in anyones' lifetime, not that it would help. As the article states -- it will only delay the catastrophe for a decade or so.

    Then again, I suppose one wouldn't want to announce the most likely survivor locations to put down roots for the future -- before those gates slam shut to outsiders. But, that information is out there for those who decide to give their descendants a leg up into the future of the species.


    [ O Recommend   O Hide   O Bitch about this at the Help Desk ]

    by Pluto on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 05:01:45 AM PDT

    •  Much bigger than denying science papers (5+ / 0-)

      ...and news articles is denying our own experiences.

      I've spent all but a few months of my life on a 300 or-so mile strip of the U.S. East Coast.  My personal evidence of climate change is roughly 50 years of my own memories.  The written information just provides context for my own experiences.  For the past 30 years, the climate has changed in ways the science predicts.

      1. Longer stretches of hot weather, including extreme weather.

      2. Rain mainly in stormy bursts instead of fairly regular rainy days.

      3.  Warmer nights in all seasons, especially winter.  This one is most noticeable.  

      4.  Rare, very large snowstorms with long snowless winters in-between.

      The most basic tenet of science is to USE YOUR OWN SENSES!

    •  The problem is men controlling women (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ladybug53, jamess, Pluto

      When it comes to population growth. When women are educated, and allowed to use all forms of birth control freely, including abortion, they stop the growth.

      They see the basic practicality of controlling reproduction, it seems that men just don't for some reason. They appears to prefer forcing girls/women to give birth over and over again. Why? You tell me.



      Women create the entire labor force.
      ---------------------------------------------
      Sympathy is the strongest instinct in human nature. - Charles Darwin

      by splashy on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 09:31:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Humans are just agile mammals (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jamess

        Unfortunately, we developed technology before we evolved consciously into enlightenment. The presence of outward-directed religion is a pretty good predictor of trouble ahead for this particular species.

        This type of skewed deadend happens on billions of planets where life is evolving.


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        by Pluto on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 06:45:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  To put this within more human terms (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WarrenS, the fan man, jamess, Bronx59

    This occurs close to the time you have just finished  paying off the thirty year mortgage you are taking out TODAY.

    This happens within our lifetimes! This is no "out there so far we don't have to worry about it anymore" cocoon that deniers buffer themselves with.

    This goes in conjunction with the astronomic increase we are going to see in flood insurance rates since the Congress so kindly removed the ceiling on the rates to expire in 5 years.

    We will also see insurers simply refusing to insure properties in many areas which they started doing years ago since they work out probably of payout and pay attention to relevant stuff like this even when our LEADERS are asleep at the wheel except for the ones buying up aquifers.

    Climate crisis will simply have to smack us all in our collective face before we will wake from our stupor.

    This is the scariest article I have read this year aside from the ones about the spiraling methane releases.

    It's On The Beach Time for many if not most.

    “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR

    by Phoebe Loosinhouse on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 05:29:45 AM PDT

    •  Even for Baby Boomers (4+ / 0-)

      This information needs to be a part of decisions on where to live in retirement, and taking care of where we live now.

      Living within 20 feet of current sea level seems unwise, and a lot of traditional retirement spots in the Southeastern and Gulf Coast U.S. sound like they will be really hazardous places to live.

      •  Yes, my siblings all live on the east coast (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bronx59, ladybug53, jamess, Pluto

        Of Florida, and I know they think that I'm the one that doesn't plan ahead. I live in the mountains, because I thought of this long ago when the scientists first started talking about it.

        Who knows, they may end up moving onto my 40 acres in the future. There's plenty of room! :-D



        Women create the entire labor force.
        ---------------------------------------------
        Sympathy is the strongest instinct in human nature. - Charles Darwin

        by splashy on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 09:34:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Temperature's not the biggest problem (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    the fan man, jamess, Bronx59, splashy, RWood

    What's going to disrupt agriculture is the increased variability in rainfall -- the longer dry periods, punctuated by periods that are too wet.  

    It will be interesting to see crop production reports for this year; too dry in the Great Plains and too wet in the South.

    Adapting to a couple degrees of temperature difference is possible for farmers.  Adapting to completely different rainfall patterns isn't.  I can find seeds and plants for a climate zone warmer, that's not too difficult.  But we no longer get an average 1" of rain a week.  Now we get 10" in one month and go for two months trying to scrape up 1".

    I would like to see Dr. Mora's follow-on project be an analysis of precipitation patterns, and when the "departure point" for that will be -- if it hasn't occurred already.

  •  From what I've read, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jamess, Bronx59, ladybug53, Pluto

    when Greenland finishes melting into the Atlantic, the plunge of fresh water that it supplies will cease and that will stop driving the Gulf Stream. That will result in New England entering an Ice Age while those around us fry.
    The rise in ocean levels will wipe out Long Island, turn it into a chain of short islands and since my house is at 27 feet about current sea level (currently three miles inland), I will have ocean front property. I am considering building the seawall and wharf now and waiting, you know, if you build it, they will come.....

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 07:54:23 AM PDT

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