Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe now has a 12-point lead over Republican nutbag Ken Cuccinelli, 51-39. Dems lead in both the lieutenant governor and attorney general races. And importantly for down-ballot races, the Democratic Party has a favorability rating of 50-48, compared to a woeful 32-65 for Republicans. I noted all that yesterday.
But there's more. Democratic conventional wisdom was that they needed to win white working-class Reagan Democrats to win elections, particularly in purple states like Virginia. There was also the obsession with winning independents (with both groups overlapping a great deal). So of course, the way to win those groups was by crapping on liberals.
Yet McAuliffe has run an explicitly socially liberal campaign: from marriage equality, to expanded abortion rights, to cap and trade, to an assault weapons ban. This was supposed to be anathema in Virginia, especially the gun stuff. Meanwhile, Cuccinelli has been running a muscularly teabaggy campaign, giving conservatives everything they've ever hoped for.
And a funny thing happened: Independents went from 35 percent for McAuliffe to 47 percent over the last month. Cuccinelli's support dropped among indies, from 39 to 36 percent.
McAuliffe also maintains a 58-34 lead among women, 85-12 among non-whites, 56-38 in Northern Virginia, 49-40 in the rest of Virginia, 51-40 among seniors, 52-38 among those under 50. Cuccinelli? He's winning whites 47-42. The path to victory no longer runs through Reagan Democrats. Or conservatism.
The Big Dog campaigned in Virginia yesterday, and now President Barack Obama is heading into town—not really to help McAuliffe, since TMac doesn't need the help, but to goose Democratic turnout across the state. Remember—if our people turn out, we win. And with 18 GOP-held House of Delegate seats won by Obama in 2012, Democratic turnout will determine whether we can retake the chamber over the next two cycles.
So it's an all-hands-on-deck situation. Lots of people are doing their part to build a Democratic wave in Virginia. Us too. Remember to chip in a few bucks to our mini slate of state delegate candidates and support the good work of our friends in Virginia. Nearly 3,000 have already chipped in, so if you haven't, now is a great time to do so!