The Data
Yearly data on fatal gunshot injuries came from the CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. We reviewed yearly counts of total fatal gunshot injuries, homicides by gunshot, and suicides by gunshot. For comparison purposes, we also included yearly counts of fatal bicycle injuries. Bicycles were chosen as a comparator because bicycles, like guns, are highly popular and ubiquitous in America, and unlike guns, bicycles are not design to injure and kill others.
There is no source of accurate reliable data on yearly gun sales. We used the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) as a surrogate marker of gun sales. Beginning in 1998, all federally licensed firearms dealers have been required to use the FBI NICS to determine if a prospective buyer is eligible to purchase firearms or explosives. The FBI maintains a database of yearly inquiries to the NICS. The FBI NICS data only tracks transactions taking place at federally licensed firearms dealers, and not those occurring through private sales, unlicensed firearms dealers, or illicit sales. It is important to note that a FBI NICS inquiry does not indicate that a gun was actually sold. I have chosen to use this data as a surrogate for gun sales because: 1) the FBI is a non-partisan and nationally recognized organization with extensive experience collecting accurate statistics; 2) the FBI NICS data covers the nation as a whole and is available every year back to 1999; and 3) I can find no better source for good reliable data on US gun sales. Because the FBI NICS data only involves prospective purchases at federally licensed firearms dealers, and not transactions made through non-licensed dealers and private sales, the NICS data is widely acknowledged to underestimate national gun sales and therefore provides a very conservative measure of actual guns sales. Linear regression was then used to look for trends and correlations in the data.
The yearly counts of fatal gunshot injuries, homicides by gun, suicides by gun fatal bicycle injuries, and FBI-NCIS inquiries are shown in Table 1. Not surprisingly, fatal gunshot injuries are far more common than fatal bicycle injuries, and suicides by gun make up a larger portion of fatal gunshot injuries than do homicides by gun. The yearly counts of fatal gunshot injuries, suicides by gun, and FBI-NICS inquires all show a clear and fairly steady increasing trend. The yearly counts of homicides by gun show a steady increasing trend for the years 1999 through 2006, but appear to decline after 2006. The yearly counts of fatal bicycle injuries bounce around between a low of 740 in 2000, and a high of 927 in 2005: no discernible trend upwards or downward in fatal bicycle injuries is apparent..
Table 1. Yearly counts of gunshot injuries and NICS inquiries.
Year - Fatal GS - Homicide1 - Suicide1 - Bicycles - NCIS*
1998 -- -- -- -- 9.138
1999 - 28,874 - 10,828 - 16,599 - 800 - 8.543
2000 - 28,663 - 10,801 - 16,586 - 740 - 8.910
2001 - 29,573 - 11,348 - 16,896 - 792 - 8.454
2002 - 30,242 - 11,829 - 17,108 - 767 - 8.481
2003 - 30,136 - 11,920 - 16,907 - 762 - 8.687
2004 - 29,559 - 11,674 - 16,750 - 843 - 8.952
2005 - 30,694 - 12,352 - 17,602 - 927 - 10.036
2006 - 30,896 - 12,791 - 16,883 - 926 - 11.177
2007 - 31,224 - 12,632 - 17,352 - 820 - 12.709
2008 - 31,593 - 12,179 - 18,223 - 893 - 14.033
2009 - 31,347 - 11,493 - 18,735 - 785 - 14.409
2010 - 31,672 - 11,078 - 19,392 - 793 - 16.454
Fatal GS – Fatal gunshot injuries
Homicide – Gun homicides
Suicide – Gun suicides
Bicycles – Fatal bicycle injuries
FBI-NICS – Inquiries made to the FBI-NICS (*in millions)
1 – numbers of homicides and suicides do not sum to total fatal gunshot injuries, because total fatal gunshot injuries also includes unintentional and other types of fatal gunshot injuries.
Measures of gunshot and bicycle injuries were regressed on the FBI-NCIS data. The data for fatal gunshot injuries, suicides by gun and FBI-NCIS inquires all showed a positive beta, that was significantly different from zero, indicative of a statistically significant increase in the yearly counts for these variables. The slope of the trend lines for fatal bicycle injuries and homicides by gun were not significantly different from zero, indicating no overall increase or decrease in these two measures. Values for r (the correlation coefficient), it's measure of significance, and r2 (amount of variance) were as follows:
- fatal gunshot injuries: r = 0.849 (p < 0.001); r2 = 0.720
- gun suicides: r = 0.917 (p < 0.001); r2 = 0.842
- gun homicides: r = -0.216 (p = 0.501); r2 = 0.042
- fatal bicycle injuries: r = 0.193 (p = 0.547); r2 = 0.037
Both total fatal gunshot injuries and gun suicides are highly and positively correlated with the FBI-NICS data, while neither gun homicides nor fatal bicycle injuries are correlated with the FBI-NCIS data.
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