Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
Everything you’ve read about the Chiefs’ schedule to date is true. KC has faced the lightest schedule of any team in the NFL; none of its nine previous opponents rank in my top ten. That said, it’s always impressive to win nine out of nine, even if those wins included squeakers by 1, 1, and 6 points.
The Chiefs have their bye this week, but then the schedule turns challenging in a hurry with two games in three weeks against Denver. This is an interesting matchup; the Chiefs’ unimpressive offense and stout defense against the Broncos’ high-scoring offense and suspect defense. The schedule also includes two games against the dangerous Chargers and one against the Colts.
(Continued below the fold. Figure in parentheses are the likelihood of winning that game based on prior data.)
A Denver (35%)
H San Diego (70%)
H Denver (46%)
A Washington (70%)
A Oakland (76%)
H Indianapolis (60%)
A San Diego (60%)
Expected wins: 4.15 out of 7
Probability of winning all seven: 2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)
The Bucs are undoubtedly the unluckiest team in the NFL this year. Three of the Bucs’ first four losses were by 1, 2, and 3 points. Most recently, the Bucs blew a 17-point lead against Seattle and lost in overtime. This team is clearly better than its record, but it has yet to break the ice.
H Miami (42%)
H Atlanta (53%)
A Detroit (25%)
A Carolina (20%)
H Buffalo (48%)
H San Francisco (28%)
A St. Louis (40%)
A New Orleans (21%)
Expected wins: 2.77 out of 8
Probability of losing all eight: 3%
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8)
It’s a shame Tampa Bay and Jacksonville don’t play this year. Then at least one of these teams would be spared the ignominy of a winless season, barring the remote possibility of a tie.
Jacksonville has faced a brutal first-half schedule, including my top five teams in the NFL (Kansas City, Seattle, Indianapolis, Denver, and San Francisco). There have been no close calls; the Jags have lost every game so far by at least 10 points. At least the second half of the season appears more manageable than the first half, with only a trip to Indianapolis appearing outside the realm of realistic possibility. (Actually, this game might bear watching if the Colts have clinched their postseason position by then; the Colts typically rest key players late in the season thus giving teams that would normally be heavy underdogs a real shot at a win.)
A Tennessee (11%)
H Arizona (18%)
A Houston (18%)
A Cleveland (14%)
H Houston (25%)
H Buffalo (22%)
H Tennessee (17%)
A Indianapolis (8%)
Expected wins: 1.33 out of 8
Probability of losing all eight: 23%