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Comment Preferences

  •  I would like to see polling out of Texas (0+ / 0-)

    As far as Congressional races.  I'm doing Tweets via Twitter and I'm seeing quite a bit of retweets from Texas Democrats and groups on Congressional races where a GOP incumbent is being challenged (including Neal Marchbanks who is running against Park Ranger hater Rep. Randy Neugebauer).

    I recognize it will be tough to unseat these GOP incumbents but I would like to see at least some polling going on to see the progress of the races, even if they're nowhere close to being neck & neck.

    •  Ehh, not sure what the point is (6+ / 0-)

      Dems could probably pickup 30 or so seats in 2014 but not flip a single Texas congressional seat, barring some scandal.  I mean is there any GOP-held House seat with a PVI under R+10?

      Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

      by ChadmanFL on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:13:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not sure what the point is? (0+ / 0-)

        Is this a serious question or just simply snark?

        I'm looking for DATA, not excuses to all of a sudden say a Texas seat is in play.

      •  Pardon... Let me clarify (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RandomNonviolence

        Ignore the first line of my previous comment.

        I'm not trying to suggest anything will happen if I have polling data or that Democratic candidates in Texas will pickup seats this election cycle.

        However, there are lots of Democratic groups in Texas and based on the Twitter feed my group, Knowledge Democrats , continues to get, folks in Texas are fired up.

        Now the next step for me is to dig into days irrespective of what the outcome will likely be November 2014.  People keep telling me Neugebauer's district is deep red and that's fine.  They can tell me that Gohmert's district is deep red and that's fine.

        However, polling information does give me insight as to where folks in Texas view their Representatives at this point in time.  I need a starting point of data to work with.

        •  Here's your problem (5+ / 0-)

          Polling costs money. Of course it would be academically interesting to chart the approval rating of every member of congress, but that would cost a significant amount of money.

          No one if voluntarily polling those districts because it wouldn't be interesting, except in passing to political junkies. When most polling firms (like, for example, PPP) do free, voluntary polling they do it for publicity (since they maintain themselves using the money from paid clients.)

          Heck, back in 2009 PPP did a series of polls in some of the most competitive districts in the country, and couldn't attract significant interest to justify continuing doing so.

          The only way you're going to see approval ratings for people like Neugebauer and Gohmert is if you pay for it yourself (keep in mind, this would be upwards of a thousand grand per poll, even if you only were polling for approval rating.)

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:51:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  *is (0+ / 0-)

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:13:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Well, yes, it does cost money but (0+ / 0-)

            Whether it's done on one side or the other, that doesn't matter to me.  

            My point is, I have a hunch Wendy Davis's candidacy for Governor in Texas may be affecting the Congressional races one way or another.  However much effect, I would be interested in seeing how the mood of incumbent representatives changes over time.  However or whoever does the polling doesn't matter as long as the pollster is credible.

            •  I've said it before, but... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I think Wendy Davis is actually a fairly weak statewide candidate, and I don't expect her to have much in the way of coattails at all, except for maybe in her home base of Fort Worth.

              Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:10:36 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Even though the polling suggests otherwise? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew
                •  The most recent PPP poll shows Davis losing by 15 (6+ / 0-)

                  That's one point better than Obama, who is reviled by many Texans. That she's 15 points behind shows that she's not a superstar politician that can overcome the fundamentals. The Lieutenant Governor's race is half the margin with the Latina behind by 7. Davis doesn't come off as too strong. I don't know if she's weak but losing by 15 like Obama, like Sadler, like myriads of other candidates before her shows she's not special. I hope I'm wrong and her benefits will be in building the party long term but I wouldn't get my hopes up about Davis winning next year.

                  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

                  22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

                  by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:24:57 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  And there's a poll where she's down by 6 pts (0+ / 0-)

                    Is PPP all of a sudden considered the god of all polling firms?

                    http://thehill.com/...

                    Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) holds a 6-point lead over Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) in their race for governor, according to a new poll.

                    Abbott leads Davis 40 percent to 34 percent in the poll, from the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune.

                    That PPP poll you cite is the only poll I'm aware of where Wendy Davis is down by 15 points.  Otherwise, she's behind by five, six or eight points.

                    I'm not suggesting Wendy Davis can definitely win.  I'm saying it's too early to make premature judgments.  Texas Democratic Party and its base still has to continue voter registration drives and get folks fired up.  They have a lot of ground game to cover if they want Davis selected next November.

                    •  I bet if look at the undecideds (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, ChadmanFL

                      You'll find a ton of Republicans.

                      I don't expect these votes to go to the Democrat.

                      "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

                      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:53:25 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I don't doubt that at all (0+ / 0-)

                        Texas has got a pretty large base of Republicans and Democrats certainly don't have the voter registration advantage.

                        I think the consensus is though is that the Democratic Party in Texas needs to continue being persistent with the voter registration drives and firing up the base.  Irrespective of the outcome of November 2014 for Wendy Davis, her race is getting more national attention on the news and that's more than the previous two Democratic candidates who ran against Rick Perry.

                        Of course, Davis is running against Greg Abbott, not Rick Perry, but Abbott is an even bigger moron than Perry.  We'll see.

                        If the Democratic Party can't fire up the base in Texas, it won't win.  But there's also over 12 months left so there's time.  Texas though is a big state so the troops have to cover a lot of ground.

        •  It might actually be counter-productive. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sacman701, CF of Aus, ChadmanFL

          If you just get one polling firm to poll 36 races, they'd likely produce two or three wacky outliers. But those outliers would seem like the "interesting" results. (OMG, Culberson only up 4! Doggett in danger against generic R!) You'd need multiple polls of each district to overcome this sort of illusion.

          •  Why is it counter productive? (0+ / 0-)

            First off, we're talking about Texas here and so with Wendy Davis's candidacy for Governor plus additional down ticket races and Congressional races going on, as well as the Texas Democratic Party getting its base fired up (and from I've read on Daily Kos here and via Twitter, it certainly seems to be the case), I would expect there to be some kind of data coming out in races besides ones polling Wendy Davis vs. Greg Abbott.

            In fact, because there are quite a lot of local Democratic parties in Texas (especially Young Democratic Parties), that suggests the base of Democrats in Texas is larger than one might think.  It's also possible that Congressional races around Texas might get more coverage at some point.  

            You are right that multiple polls are needed to make a better assessment but my original comment was just out of curiosity what polling (if any) is out there.

  •  HI-SSM: State House passes marriage equality (20+ / 0-)

    The final vote was 30-19, with two excused.

    The bill now heads back to the state senate due to House amendments that broadened several exemptions for religious institutions.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:26:04 AM PST

    •  The roll call is posted here: (6+ / 0-)

      http://politicalradar.staradvertiserblogs.com/...

      Notable speeches:
      Jo Jordan 'crying' and falling victim to Stockholm Syndrome

      Karen Awame equating gays with child predators who use sex ed to teach children to have gay sex

      Karen Har screaming during every one of her rebuttals

      Kaniela Ing looking like a definite rising star. He just needs to become a better speaker but his poise, looks and charisma are all there

      Souki telling Mele Carroll that she had spoken for more than 1/2 hour and should think about shutting up soon (he said it nicely though

      21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

      by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:37:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and the end of Justin Woodson's (4+ / 0-)

        political career. He's no Obama, that's for sure.

        I should add that the amendments were mild and will shouldn't be enough to move the Senate much though. Is there any chance Donna Mercado Kim stalls the vote to run out the clock?

        21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

        by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:39:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ing definitely has future potential (7+ / 0-)

        he came into office in spectacular fashion last year, tossing out a scandal-free GOP incumbent by 25 points.  He got some positive visibility during this special session, and he's only 24 years old.  I see him going places.

        A number of other politicians did serious damage to themselves though.  The betrayals of Justin Woodson and Mele Carroll, the unhinged anti-gay ranting of Karen Awana and Sharon Har, the "worst coming out ever" of Jo Jordan, the endless obstruction of Marcus Oshiro, and of course, the Republicans...Gene Ward's mind-numbing non-sequiturs and obsession about male-male sex, Richard Fale's shouting and demagoguing to the crowd outside, and Bob McDermott's ranting about how poor cake-makers are going to get sued by gay people.

        I think McDermott has really risked his standing in a swing House district.  Fale and Ward represent the two safest GOP districts, but with them as the face of the Republican Party, they will continue to do plenty of damage to their party.  In an idea world, Woodson, Carroll, Jordan, Har, Awana, and Oshiro would all get primaried out...I am hopeful at least one of them loses next year.

        •  Fale's speech was a riot (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, MichaelNY, Skaje

          Basically it was, "I have experienced discrimination first-hand, so I am qualified more than anybody to do the same to others" Something about getting picked on for being half-Polynesian and that being somehow related to gay marriage. I missed Ward's and McDermott's speeches I think...

          To be honest, some in Hawai'i's legislature don't strike me as too bright. I'm shocked half of them passed law school. If you can't say your speech for more than 5 seconds without glancing down at your notes you wouldn't even make it on a 9th grade speech team, much less the deliberative body of a US State. Maybe they're just tired from deliberations. We only had like 30 recesses during the debate though.

          21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

          by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:10:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  seriously (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gigantomachyusa, geoneb, ArkDem14

        the number of HI Reps who embarrassed themselves is amazing. I don't think I remember this many lawmakers making such spectacular fools of themselves during the gay marriage debates in other states.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:35:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Props to Cynthia Thielen (5+ / 0-)

      for breaking from her party to vote for marriage equality!

      http://www.civilbeat.com/...

      "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:17:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  can dems take the house (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    in nov 2014 and what races do we need to focus on to do that?

    what is going on with this moderate republican stuff and this no labels stuff?  steve latourette?  

    Ted Kennedy: “The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die…”

    by jlms qkw on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:46:40 AM PST

    •  I'll give my own response to this (7+ / 0-)

      At this point, I'd say a flip of the House is possible but pretty unlikely. There are several variables to consider:

      (1) Republican gerrymandering has been quite effective. We just saw an example of this in Virginia legislative races in which several Democratic challengers lost races by 2% or less. We also saw this inasmuch as the Democratic House vote in 2012 was, if I'm remembering correctly, about 3% more (or at least 2.something% more) than the Republican House vote, nationwide, yet the Democrats gained only a few seats.
      (2) There are some really high-quality Democratic candidates who've been recruited to run both in potentially swingy open seats and against some incumbent Republicans. How many more will there be? And how many more Republicans will retire in potentially winnable seats vs. Democrats retiring in such seats?
      (3) If the House Republicans shut down the government again, especially close to the election, they'll make more people angry.
      (4) How soon will healthcare.gov be working well, and will the electorate be mostly happy with Obamacare by November, 2014?

      My feeling is, if the Republican in the House shut down the government next fall, they ought to and might lose the House, but otherwise, we shouldn't expect that, as despite the unprecedented public disgust with the Republican Party, gerrymanders are powerful and it's a lot to ask Democrats to overcome that kind of hurdle in an off year.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:00:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The ones I'm optimistic about: (3+ / 0-)

      CA-21 (Renteria), CA-31 (Aguilar), CO-6 (Romanoff), FL-2 (Graham), FL-13 (Sink), IL-13 (Gollin/Callis), MI-2 (Cannon), NE-2 (Festersen), NJ-3 (Belgard), NV-3 (Bilbray), NY-19 (Eldridge; would be more optimistic without Eldridge tbh), NY-23 (Robertson)

      In the end, I think about half of those win and most likely: Aguilar, Belgard, Cannon, Gollin/Callis, Graham, Romanoff, Sink

      I think we lose Barber, Shea-Porter, and a surprise (a Ben Chandler-type loss like Tim Bishop)

      So as I see it right now we win 7 and lose 3 for a 2014 Congress that's 205D-230R

      21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

      by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:02:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You think CSP is going to lose? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV
        •  New Hampshire is fickle (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I think she's more likely to lose than McIntyre or Matheson, yes. And with Guinta I think she's probably more likely to lose than not.

          22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

          by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:25:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Their fickleness depends on the (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa, lordpet8

            mood of the country.

          •  I totally disagree (5+ / 0-)

            Those two guys are much more likely to lose because they're in heavily Republican districts.

            CSP will win unless the country generally turns against Democrats. If Republicans are still generally more unpopular than Democrats, I give her at least 75% odds of winning again.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:49:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I would also be fairly surprised (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              if NH-01 flipped and NH-02 didn't.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:01:54 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  but Matheson and McIntyre both survived (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen

              with Obama on top of the ticket and both are personally strong candidates. Yes, they are in red states but they have survived a long time highlighting their political acumen. Plus I think both Mia Love and David Rouzer are overrated candidates who failed to win during a high turnout year when those turning out in their respective districts overwhelmingly voted against Obama. With Obama off the ticket, it will be harder to link McIntyre and Matheson to the National Democrats. Not to mention both Love and Rouzer have weaker campaigns this time around. I don't sense the energy for either candidate that was present last year and fundraising shows that.

              I think Carol Shea Porter has a strong chance of winning but as of right now I don't see New Hampshire turnout equaling that of 2012 which benefits Guinta, who is a much stronger candidate. She won by less than 4 points when Obama was on the ticket and the Obama campaign was milking Democratic turnout. I don't think 2010 will occur again when she lost by 11 but I think a 4 point dropoff in a midterm is likely. She will have to win based on her own prowess as a campaigner and she doesn't strike me as particularly solid on the stump. The same can't be said for Annie Kuster who has a bluer district (by a tiny bit), a weaker opponent and better charisma.

              22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

              by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:51:37 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Good analysis (2+ / 0-)

                But I think the record shows that CSP is underrated.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:54:48 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Or incredibly lucky :) n/t (0+ / 0-)

                  22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

                  by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:58:45 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Luck doesn't get you very far (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Swamp Cat

                    in multiple elections.

                    •  multiple elections being 4 (0+ / 0-)

                      and three were waves and 2012 she received a boost from Obama's New Hampshire operation. She's never won in a neutral year without major tailwinds. She might, she might not. I lean more towards not but if the cycle leans towards Dem in NH I can see her holding on.

                      22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

                      by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:32:16 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Are you predicting a neutral year? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Zack from the SFV

                        I'm not. I think it is likely to be at least slightly anti-Republican.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:41:14 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I think it will be a neutral year with a slight (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, James Allen

                          dem hue. I just think it's a safer decision to take than saying the strongly Dems will be ahead with 1 year to go. I made that same mistake in 2009 and had egg on my face when 2010 turned into a wave.

                          22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

                          by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:41:15 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  We're saying almost the same thing (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            gigantomachyusa

                            I'm saying "at least slightly anti-Republican"; you're saying "neutral with a slight Dem hue." I guess if I had to translate that, I'm suggesting about a Lean-D environment and you're suggesting a Tossup/Tilt-D environment.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:26:04 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yeah Tossup/Tilt D seems right as of now (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            If the Generic Ballot doesn't change then Leans D is probably closer to the mark.

                            22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

                            by gigantomachyusa on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:28:29 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Note that a Lean-D environment (0+ / 0-)

                            nets only a few seats in this heavily gerrymandered situation. We'd need a Likely-D environment, effectively, for a flip, and even that might not do it. Basically, the question is whether we need a 5% Democratic lead or maybe a 7% lead or more. "Lean-D" is maybe 3-4%.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:36:24 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Right on (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701

                An additional factor in favor of Matheson and McIntyre (moreso in favor of Matheson) is that they are both very talented politicians who know how to use incumbency to their advantage. In addition to facing the election year headwind with Obama, they were each running for reelection in quite a bit of new territory in 2012. Now that they are incumbents for all of their district voters, they have an additional advantage that will be make it more difficult for them to be dislodged.

                That said, they are certainly in the top 10 or so of vulnerable Democrats with McIntyre being quite a bit weaker, in my opinion than Matheson. The Romney-Mormon juggernaut was a Cat-5 hurricane in Utah. Survive that and a re-gerrymandered district, and you can survive anything. Plus Matheson is very personable and knows how to be a conservative Democrat without totally pissing off the base. McIntyre, meanwhile, is a bit rustier as a campaigner. Additionally, though Obama didn't perform well in his district, the Obama machine in NC was in overdrive and McIntyre can expect a drop in minority voters in 2014. That could put him at serious risk if he doesn't entrench himself and if he faces a better opponent than Rouzer.

                I love me some CSP, but she is what one might call an accidental politician. If she were in a safe district, she could do fine, I'm sure, but she will lose NH-01 one of these days, whether in 2014 or 2016 or 2018.... and from a Machiavellian perspective, better to have her lose to weak sauce Guinta and retake the seat in 2016 than to a stronger GOPer...

                •  I'd say they still have their work cut out for (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, BeloitDem

                  themselves. They will still need to give it their all to hold on.
                  Let's not forget that for every Matheson and McIntyre there was an Edwards(D-TX) and a Marshall (D-GA).

                  "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

                  by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:07:56 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  That and they both just barely held on. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              McIntyre by like 500 votes and Matheson by what 1%?

              D in FL at the SSP.

              by Avedee on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:58:53 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  maybe more than Matheson (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            McIntyre is on a knife's edge.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:25:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Gerrymandering makes it difficult (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      NC, PA, OH, MI, TX.  Very difficult to overcome.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:54:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Republican David Joyce (OH-14) is vulnerable (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        He managed to slip into Steve LaTourette's balanced district when LaT decided not to run again after the filing deadline. So there was no reasonable Democrat on the ballot. Democrat Michael Wager seems to have a chance to defeat Joyce.

        •  Liberal? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gigantomachyusa

          I thought I read him described as a "solid progressive."
          if he is, I think he'd have little chance to win a R+ district unless there's a pretty big wave.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:13:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Wager has been the lawyer for the Cleveland Port Authority and seems to be pretty tied into the Democratic Party establishment. I don't know what his politics are like.

            OH-14 is a moderate district. It has the rich communities of Gates Mills, Moreland Hills, etc., but also lots of working class communities along the railroad tracks like Mentor, Painesville, Ashtabula. The Rs didn't skew it Republican very much because they assumed LaTourette was a lock on the seat.

            I assume a Sherrod-Brown-type populist Dem could win here as long as the labor unions support the Democrat (many supported LaT in the past). I assume that SB-5 is still rankling labor and will help them shift towards getting rid of all Republicans.

            •  As I recall, it's about R+2 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              so potentially ripe for a moderate Democrat to win, but not an aggressively liberal one.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:52:52 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Romney won OH-14 50.9% to 47.6 Obama (0+ / 0-)

                http://www.dailykos.com/...

                But I bet Sherrod Brown won this district. Is Brown "aggressively liberal"?

                When Obama reneged on his commitment to renegotiate NAFTA and instead pushed for more terrible trade deals, labor stayed home in 2010. That might repeat again this time since Obama is pushing for TPP.

                •  Brown won 48-47 here (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lordpet8, MichaelNY

                  Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                  by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 03:18:43 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Brown is very liberal (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Zack from the SFV, Swamp Cat

                  but he's also a superbly talented politician. Sometimes, as in New Jersey with Governor Christie, people vote against their ideology if they find a politician super-impressive.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:21:11 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  is he? (0+ / 0-)

                    I think it depends on what liberal means.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:09:37 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  What we mean in the US (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      fearlessfred14, Swamp Cat

                      is a strong supporter of the social safety net, policies that benefit the poor and working class and use taxation and government investment (public works projects, etc., etc.) to do so, and someone who believes in strong environmental, workplace safety, product safety, etc., regulations, supports union rights, raises in the minimum wage, etc. - do I really need to go through this with you? You're a very reasonable person, so I don't understand what your point could possibly be.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:19:33 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I don't (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        borodino21

                        use the colloquial definition of liberalism.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 01:01:44 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Then you're confusing the issue (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          borodino21, fearlessfred14

                          Today's Republicans aren't classically conservative, either.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 02:08:05 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Americans are confusing the issue (0+ / 0-)

                            everyone else uses the right definition.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:41:23 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  who decides what's "right"? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            nobody with any authority. 'murrica, yo.

                            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                            by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:01:16 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't understand what the point of this is (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

                            Everyon here understands that liberal means something different in Europe (ie center right on economic issues typically center let of social ones) than it does in America (where it means the non-radical left). Clearly MichaelNY was using the American meaning to make a point about Sherrod Brown. I don't understand the point of initiating a derail to make a point we all already know.

                            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                            by okiedem on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:28:22 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I expressed my opinion (0+ / 0-)

                            and don't feel a need to discuss it further.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:30:12 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Words are subject to changes in meaning (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            sapelcovits

                            or to differing meanings in different places. "Fag" and "fanny pack" don't mean the same thing in Britain as they do in the US, either. We need to speak the same language (English, with some US-specific words and meanings) to understand each other. I could post in Malay, but insisting that the Congress should be called "Dewan Rakyat" wouldn't be very useful, now, would it?

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:37:04 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  This is all boring to me (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            okiedem

                            What ideologies advocate is specific to their context.

                            Say, for instance, that the true location of "liberal" (what follows will be an oversimplification), is the following on left to right scale, with the positions of average governmental policy placed on that scale as well of the two governments we're discussing (the US and the UK):

                            left ------- UK ------- liberal ------- US ------- right

                            What the liberal in the UK is going to advocate for is going to be entirely different given their institutional context than what the liberal in the US will be advocating for, because their starting institutional contexts are entirely different. It just so happens that the context throughout Europe is much more similar to the UK than it is in the United States, thus meaning that what here in the US we call "classical liberalism" is probably simply a function of the fact that most countries there are way overregulated and overburdened by taxes. Here in the US, however, that isn't the case. Facially, Republicans advocate the same policies, but contextually, they're advocating something entirely different. Democrats, really, want to pull the US left to the same ideal point as European liberals do for their own countries. But it requires entirely different policies to do so because of the starting context.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:45:12 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Interesting but don't totally agree (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Possible Liberal

                            For example the US Democratic party is almost certainly to the left of the German Free Democrats (the closes thing to a true traditional liberal party in Europe). Although the Lib Dems are probably to the left of the US Democrats that is largely the legacy of their merger with the Social Democratic Party. More traditional historical liberal parities such as the historical liberal party in the UK, or the Radicals in France would be more free-market oriented than the US Democratic Party.

                            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                            by okiedem on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:59:22 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That may be true (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            There may be differences, but we're talking, really, less about specific parties and their exact placements on a scale and more about broad ideologies (e.g. "liberal") and only then after that the parties which might fit under that umbrella term. Liberal isn't an exact point, it's a scale of points on a broader scale.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 01:14:07 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                •  But what's your evidence (0+ / 0-)

                  that "labor stayed home in 2010"? Do you have any data to back that claim up with?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:21:45 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I can't remember (0+ / 0-)

                    There may have been a study at the time or it may just have been what I was hearing from people at the time in Cleveland - I can't remember. But trust me, there was a lot of disappointment in Obama when he didn't follow through on his promises to labor and that translated into a lot less energy in 2010. The Tea Party was making populist arguments about how Obama bailed out the bankers and did nothing for homeowners losing their houses to foreclosure in Ohio. It was hard to argue against that since that part of their rhetoric was true.

                    Brown is a very talented politician, but he is also a strong populist and people trust that he will stand up to the banks and fight for working people because he has done that consistently for decades.

                    •  The reason I ask (0+ / 0-)

                      is that I distinctly remember seeing actual figures demonstrating that Democrats and liberals turned out at a normal percentage in 2010, and the problem was that Republicans and conservatives turned out way more than usual. So if what you're remembering is anecdotal, I'd completely discount it. Disappointed voters count just as much as enthusiastic ones, if they show up.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:25:42 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I'm not sure that the data is definitive either (0+ / 0-)

                        Studies of Democratic/Republican and liberal/conservative turnout doesn't account very well for "Reagan Democrats" (and Ross Perot Republicans) who vote economically populist but social issue conservative and swing back and forth depending on whether economic or social issues are more compelling (or don't vote at all when insufficiently roused). The Tea Party was able to energize and capture a lot of that segment since they were promising jobs and trashing bailouts for bankers (as well as making racist dog whistles against Obama). In 2008 and 2012, a lot of those folks swung to the Democrats based on concern about economic issues. As I said, Sherrod Brown captured a lot of those folks by making economic appeals (and Obama did in 2008, with Bruce Springsteen standing by his side).

                        I think Obama lost a lot of those folks in 2010 by not doing enough economically for working class whites in Ohio and backing up his populist rhetoric with clear Presidential action. But maybe it was all due to the racist dog whistles.

      •  Can't agree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        With three legitimately competitive races in Michigan, alone, and in gerrymandered districts, no less, it seems like a weird state to include with the others listed.

    •  It'll be tough (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But we essentially need to focus on places where we are able to win senate elections, but not house elections. Focusing simply on Obama districts doesn't get us to 218. Places like AR-2, WV-1, MT-AL, IN-2, etc. Obviously need need to win some Obama districts in places like New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, but we need more than just the low hanging fruit.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:51:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon's HD-20, R-held but open (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Swamp Cat

    Two-party vote, Dem percentages
    2012
    Pres: 52.3% Obama
    US House: 52.48% Schrader
    SOS: 53.38% Brown
    Treas: 58.24% Wheeler
    AG: 55.48% Rosenblum

    Pre-redistricting
    2010
    Gov: 50.7% Kitzhaber
    US Sen: 57.06% Wyden
    US House: 53.27% Schrader
    Treas: 53.94% Wheeler
    State Sen: 33.85% Pierce

    2008
    Pres: 56.2% Obama
    US Sen: 46.79% Merkley
    US House: 58.13% Schrader
    SOS: 51.41% Brown
    Treas: 49.94% Westlund

    2006
    Gov: 56.16% Kulongoski
    US House: 57.9% Hooley
    State Sen: 49.58% Evans

    2004
    Pres: 50.11% Kerry
    US Sen: 63.7% Wyden
    US House: 55.88% Hooley
    SOS: 56.62% Bradbury
    Treas: 54.93% Edwards
    AG: 55.95% Myers

    The district got a little tougher in redistricting, but its obviously open to voting for Dems. It will be tough if they nominate a moderate R, as their moderate rep here and senator were able to win easily outside of 2006, and Gordon Smith won it in 2008. But absent that it will vote Dem. 2006 state sen candidate Evans will be our candidate.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:15:05 AM PST

  •  If you could move any border county (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alizarin Indigo, Tayya, bfen

    to an adjacent state to benefit Democrats which would you choose? Complete fantasy of course. The only rule is that you can't move a county that would bysect a state (ie moving Worcester County into New Hampshire) or a county that has a state capital (ie moving Trenton into Pennsylvania).

    I think the best choice would be moving Shelby County into Mississippi. Wouldn't it make Mississippi into a swing state?

    We could also shore up states by moving
    1. Omaha/Douglas County, NE to Iowa
    2. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY into Indiana OR;
    3. Butler County, OH into Indiana
    4. Essex County, MA into New Hampshire
    5. Prince George's County, MD into Virginia
    6. Walworth County, WI into Illinois
    7. Escambia County, FL into Alabama
    8. Weld County, CO into Wyoming
    Any other good ones?

    22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

    by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:40:10 AM PST

  •  CA-SD-23 Special election (5+ / 0-)

    State Sen. Emmerson(R) throws in the towel and retires.

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    Governor Brown has yet to call a special election

    "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

    by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:28:29 AM PST

    •  I will add this looks like pretty safe GOP (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:36:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  His resignation is effective December 1 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      So Brown can't call a special election until then.

      The two biggest names in the candidate mix are incumbent assemblymen Mike Morrell and Tim Donnelly.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:56:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lol, Tim Donnelly. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV
      •  Emmerson's district is 46-52 Romney (3+ / 0-)

        Would be much redder than any state legislative or Congressional seat we hold in California. Because it's an odd numbered district the election will be held under the new (post 2010) lines, unlike some even numbered Senate districts held under the 2000-lines.

        Morrell's Assembly district is interesting. It actually voted Obama 53-45 and Morrell only narrowly won last year. Morrell is only eligible to run for one more term. We have only one seat more than 2/3 right now so picking it up would be good for us. I assume there would be time for a special election if Morrell's district became vacant which would present some turnout challenges for us, but given how thin our 2/3 majority is, it would be very worth competing there.  

        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:35:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The special general election would most likely (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff

          be consolidated with the statewide primary on June 5, allowing the special primary to be held on March 25 and April 1.

          California Elections Code §10703

          10703.  (a) A special election to fill a vacancy in the office of Representative in Congress, State Senator, or Member of the Assembly shall be conducted on a Tuesday at least 126 days, but not more than 140 days, following the issuance of an election proclamation by the Governor pursuant to Section 1773 of the Government Code, except that the special election may be conducted within 180 days following the proclamation in order that the election or the primary election may be consolidated with the next regularly scheduled statewide election or local election occurring wholly or partially within the same territory in which the vacancy exists, provided that the voters eligible to vote in the local election comprise at least 50 percent of all the voters eligible to vote on the vacancy.
          180 days before the June primary is December 5, which is within the two-week time period after a vacancy when the Governor must proclaim a special election.

          If Morrell decides to run and wins, there will be no special election for his seat.

          California Elections Code §10701

          10701. (b) When a vacancy occurs in a legislative office after the close of the nomination period in the final year of the term of office, no special election shall be held.
          The nomination filing deadline is March 7, or if incumbent is not running, March 12.

          Essentially, the best case scenario is for Morrell to win this seat. The 2012 PVI for SD-23 is R+4, which is still out of reach for Democrats. His current seat AD-40, which as mentioned by Darth Jeff is 53-45 Obama and D+3, would be a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, especially as an open seat.

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 04:31:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  How should I respond (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, LordMike

    to people who are apathetic towards politics?

    I've never been able to figure out how to respond positively to that

  •  NC CD 3 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    jones's district.

    there was already a dem in the race:  http://www.marshall4congress.com/...

    and Thigpin, a recent GOP convert, is also running.  

    Please don't dominate the rap, Jack, if you got nothin' new to say - Grateful Dead

    by Cedwyn on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:07:03 AM PST

  •  VA-AG (5+ / 0-)

    I'm feeling really good about winning here, between provisionals and further re-tabulations now that the difference is 130 votes. Question: Is the 2000 vote machine error in Mason included in the votes added from the Seven Corners Surprise? If it isn't, then I would say Herring is better than even to win.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:14:04 AM PST

  •   I'm following this closely too. But (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Swamp Cat

    I think there is VA-AG twitter fatigue right now. Also, I don't know about the machine you are referencing, but I did read on Arlington Elections Board twitter feed that they accepted and counted 79 provisionals last night out of 121 and posted them to the SBE. HOWEVER, these are not reflected on the SBE yet. I would assume those would have broken something like 50-19 for Herring bringing his lead down to around 80. Does anyone know for sure if there are still 493 provisionals from Fairfax County that will be counted tomorrow? If so, I think Herring squeaks by.

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:52:17 AM PST

  •  Random thought (10+ / 0-)

    Now that de Blasiovich has won, assuming we can hold onto San Diego, Dems will control the mayoralties of the 12 most populous cities in the country. given that NYC has been under Republican control for so long, I wonder when the last time that happened was.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:18:49 AM PST

  •  My diary is published (6+ / 0-)

    about the House of Delegates and how much money was wasted. I was honestly astonished by how much of their money was squandered once I totaled it up.

  •  ME-Sen Shenna Bellows (5+ / 0-)

    DK Elections has ignored her run against incumbent Republican Susan Collins - I'm not sure why. But there have been many other recent diaries including one by me. Bellows is the former Executive Director of the Maine ACLU and fought for marriage equality and voter rights. Her campaign launch looked very good from where I sit far away: visits to every county and lots of Maine media coverage. She is very progressive on civil rights issues (gay rights, drones, NSA) and seems to be pretty progressive on other issues. She's the daughter of a carpenter and a nurse so I assume she is sympathetic to the 99%.

    I'd like to know how she stands on issues other than civil rights, especially environment, labor, wealth/income inequality, abortion, guns, and the military-industrial complex (especially given the large role that General Dynamics' Bath Iron Works plays in Maine). Is she really worth progressives fighting for?

    I'd also like to know how much of a long-shot her candidacy is. Will she be able to raise money (she's raised $100,000 so far), hire good staffers, mount a credible campaign? If we launched an Elizabeth-Warren-style netroots support effort for her would it make her viable?

    And how vulnerable is Susan Collins? Collins is pro-choice and reasonably good on environmental issues, but also votes with Republicans most of the time, especially on crucial votes. How popular in Maine is Collins really?

    •  Why? (9+ / 0-)

      Because no-one has a chance against Collins in a general election. She pasted Congressman Tom Allen last time, and he was a damn good candidate.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:53:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Times change. Is Collins still invulnerable? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Illegitimi non carborundum

        Maine voters repealed marriage equality in 2009, but then reversed themselves in 2012.  Since 2008, the recession has taken a big toll on everyone but the elite 1%. How have these and other changes affected Maine and how Mainers perceive Collins?

        •  Very little (11+ / 0-)

          Recent polls have shown that she's more popular among Democrats than among Republicans, as I recall. It's important for the Democrats to run a credible candidate, on the off-chance that one of the two teabaggers running against her suddenly catches fire and upsets her - but there's no evidence of that happening - or she suddenly decides to retire, but if she is in the general election, she will almost definitely win.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:25:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Tea baggers? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SouthernLeveller, abgin

            We haven't seen any credible primary candidates come forward against Collins. If you know something I don't, do tell! The likeliest suspects are busy fighting in the Republican primary for the CD2 seat which Michaud's entry into the Governor's race leaves open.

            On the other hand, we have a Dem candidate who is more than credible. Shenna Bellows is the former director of the ACLU of Maine, where she played a key role in passing marriage equality in 2012 and restoring same-day voter registration in 2011. She's sharp, articulate, personable, hard-working, and has been a go-to person for the media here for years when they need a good sound bite on civil liberty issues. She's got both fundraising and grassroots activism experience.

            Breaking through the Collins "cloak of invincibility" will be a challenge, but it's possible. Collins reputation as a moderate is largely based on her generally pro-choice and pro-environment record, but on most other issues she's as bad as the rest of the R's, and far worse than even Blue Dogs like Manchin and Heitkamp, who tend to get a pass because they're from red states. Maine and the country deserves better.

            Support a Progressive Dem from Maine for US Senate! www.bellowsforsenate.com

            by Illegitimi non carborundum on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 03:15:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  PPP gave Collins a 57% approval in August (5+ / 0-)

          She destroyed Rep. Chellie Pingree in a hypothetical match-up. If Collins were primaried things would get interesting but no reasonably strong opponent is stepping up.

          Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

          by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:44:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Collins has taken some positions that folks here (0+ / 0-)

          on dKos think is an anathema. Collins on 'tax reform'

          Collins stated:

          “Our nation’s tax code needs to be overhauled, from top to bottom. The tax plan offered by the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson Commission – a commission the President himself created – offered a proposal a year and a half ago that should have been the foundation for a serious debate for such an overhaul."

          on CISPA:
          More than 30 privacy, free market, civil liberties and open government groups have issued a letter calling on Senators to oppose the Lieberman-Collins Cyber Security Act and support amendments to address privacy and civil liberties concerns.  
          ...clip...  
          Signatories to the letter span the political spectrum and include CDT, the American Civil Liberties Union, the American Conservative Union, the Free Press Action Fund, FreedomWorks, Consumer Federation of America, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Democrats.com and the Republican Liberty Caucus.  
          Collins is not bad as far a Republicans go these days ( despite her votes against cloture on many of Obama's nominees, or her support of both Alito and Roberts to the SCOTUS), but I thought we were all about more and better Democrats.

          Since there will be no Tea Party candidates in this race, we have a free shot at trying to improve the overall balance in the Senate. There really is no down side here.

      •  No excuse (2+ / 0-)

        DKE has often covered races where 1 side or another has no chance.  It SAYS how bad the chances are, but it covers them, anyway.

        "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. http://www.kynect.ky.gov/ for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

        by SouthernLeveller on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:01:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ME-Sen has been mentioned on here (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, BeloitDem, gabjoh

          I specifically remember posts relating to Bellows' campaign announcement.  There really haven't been many day-to-day developments in the race to cover, and we do tend to focus on competitive races more, but this one has definitely come up.   It's been mentioned a lot more than other races anyway, like Idaho or Alabama or Delaware.    

    •  I think if we couldn't beat her in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      in fact we didn't even get close, we're not going to now.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:28:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  To be honest, (4+ / 0-)

        Tom Allen ran an absolutely awful campaign, and the out state areas all saw him as a creature of Portland politics (and not a very beloved even there). Had say, Michaud run in 2008 rather than Allen, and actually ran a campaign that went after Collins' votes and posturing aggressively, who can say what would have happened.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:44:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Investing a bit in Maine might not be a bad idea. (6+ / 0-)

          At the end of the day I think this seat is safe for the GOP as long as Collins is running but it would not hurt to test her popularity by mentioning some of her worst votes. This is the only GOP senate seat up in a state Obama won no reason to completely ignore it yet.

          D in FL at the SSP.

          by Avedee on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:54:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes and no... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, abgin, ArkDem14

          Tom Allen is a nice guy, but he ran a listless campaign that ignored much of the state.

          It probably didn't help that Allen made the environment one of his key issues. Not because it isn't important, but it's one of the few areas where Collins is better than most R's and a few D's in the Senate. Getting any traction there was a lost cause. There are much better issues to use for contrast, like labor, health care, and civil rights.

          As for going negative, Allen tried to near the end of the race, but it backfired badly. Mainers are perhaps less used to, and more adverse to negative campaigning than voters in some states. (I remember being shocked and amused the first time I was in Texas during an election season, and saw some of the ads for even minor races.) Collins has an aggressive PR team, and it's risky to go negative on her. On the other hand, for the first time a few in the Maine media have gotten bold enough to question her votes on the shutdown and on her filibustering of Obama's nominees.

          Support a Progressive Dem from Maine for US Senate! www.bellowsforsenate.com

          by Illegitimi non carborundum on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:07:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Calling bullshit (6+ / 0-)

            on the "Mainers aren't susceptible to negative ads" thing.

            People claim this about everywhere, but even though people don't like them, they work. Especially when used early on a relatively undefined candidate.

            •  This should have a stock standard DKE meme (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, wwmiv, Skaje

              Response anytime it comes up... Somebody generally talks up their area as being too nice, where every hates nasty attack adds... No one likes negative adds... But they sure must be effective if everyone keeps using them.

              Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

              by CF of Aus on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:10:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Nathan Gonzales put it well in his loserspeak (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, CF of Aus, Skaje

                column:

                “I’m not going to run any negative ads.” This is one way to virtually guarantee defeat. We can argue about the definition of “negative,” but campaigns are about contrasts. And successful campaigns rarely let the opponent run unscathed and define himself or herself only on their own terms. The caveat to this is if outside groups run negative ads on behalf of a candidate. But if you’re a candidate who wins without running negative ads, then you were probably going to win anyway.
                Also in the followup:
                10. “My district is different.” This is related to Nos. 8 and 9, but is a common refrain. Some candidates believe that time-tested campaign tactics don’t apply in their home area. It’s usually an excuse to shun negative ads, polling and fundraising. Candidates who don’t do those three things are setting themselves up for a loss on Election Night.

                Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:17:30 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  It seemed to help Hickenlooper (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Darth Jeff

                  in 2010. His shower commercial rebuking the idea of negative advertsing and criticizing won both awards and proved to play very well with voters.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:41:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It did help that Hickenlooper was going to win (5+ / 0-)

                    If you have two opponents nuking each other and spiting the vote like Hickenlooper did, than it's often tactically smart to go completely positive. But that's usually a rarity in a general.

                    If we have a close Hickenlooper vs. Tancredo fight next year I'm pretty confident we'll see a lot of Hickenlooper ads hammering Tancredo as an extremist (or at least allied groups doing it for him).  

                    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                    by Jeff Singer on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:49:28 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  I didn't say they were "less susceptible." (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              nimh

              Obviously they can be effective. Unfortunately they can also backfire.
              The comment about Tom Allen's experience with them came first hand from someone very close to the campaign, who watched his internal numbers climb and then dive as soon as he went negative.
              I guess you could argue this was due to the successful negative campaigning the Collins camp did in response. My point is that going negative against a candidate with high favorables, especially an incumbent woman whose campaign team isn't afraid to play the victim card, is not necessarily the smartest strategy for a challenger.

              That is not to say that a challenger can't point up contrasts in positions, etc., just that it has to be done with some caution and without appearing to be a personal attack.

              Support a Progressive Dem from Maine for US Senate! www.bellowsforsenate.com

              by Illegitimi non carborundum on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 11:19:25 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Allen lost by over 20 points (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, nimh

            Are you really going to tell me that if he had only run a better campaign it would have made that much of a difference?

            And bad campaign or not, he was still a top-tier challenger, and she still destroyed him. Why exactly would we have any better luck with someone who is very clearly not a top-tier challenger in a race where it is still very clear to most of us that Susan Collins is still popular.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 27 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:21:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Top tier candidates who run (2+ / 0-)

              crappy campaigns can get destroyed. See: 1. Hoekstra, Pete, 2. Kennedy, Mark.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:40:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Response... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, nimh, MichaelNY

                Hoekstra also ran one of the most offensive ad campaigns (and stuck to it for a pretty decent amount of time), that's not merely running a poor campaign, that's on par with the crap Todd Akin pulled. Hoekstra wasn't even that great of a candidate, he was a conservative Republican who had only ever ran in a heavily Republican district; even without the "Debbie Spend-it-Now" bullshit, Hoekstra would have still lost and likely by worse than Mitt Romney had done.

                Mark Kennedy may well have run a poor campaign, but there were other things at play as well. Minnesota is a state that Democrats, all other things being equal, start off with a small but real edge over Republicans, Amy Klobuchar herself was a top-tier recruit on the Democratic side (and ran a strong campaign), oh and it was also 2006. Those things alone made it pretty much a given (in hindsight of course) that even with a competent campaign, Klobuchar would have easily won by double-digits.

                And no one is addressing the main thing that most of us are talking about, Collins didn't just over-perform, she got more raw votes than Barack Obama did! Allen may well have run a poor campaign, but that alone doesn't enable an incumbent to absolutely romp in a state that is naturally hostile towards their party.

                All of this is to say that it doesn't change the fact that Collins is genuinely quite popular in Maine and we can't beat her (nor will any top-tier challengers try).

                Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 27 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                by NMLib on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 02:57:30 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Her campaign seems largely centered (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, RandomNonviolence

      around base issues (i.e. Patriot Act, marijuana legalization etc.) that get progressives and some libertarians very excited about her (which is why she's so popular here) but are not issues that the average Mainer decides an election on.  I have seen her speak very little about issues that actually appeal to more than the base (jobs, education, healthcare, etc.) and she can actually come across as out of the mainstream.  I would even be concerned about her electability in an open seat race much less against an electoral powerhouse like Collins; I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion among those who want all of our candidates in every race to be like Shenna Bellows but the only people who are going to vote for her are the people who were never going to vote for Collins to begin with.    

      •  Some problems with this analysis. (0+ / 0-)

        While it's true that Bellows has gotten more press over NSA/privacy issues so far, that's largely due to those issues being in the news right now. Ditto marijuana legalization (thanks in part to the vote in Portland, ME this week). Those are not going to be the sole, or even primary focus of her campaign. The Portland Phoenix did a very good interview piece which goes into some of the other issues, like healthcare:

        I think the Affordable Care Act is an important first step. I think that covering young people on their parents’ insurance benefits both those young people and the employers who are employing younger people. Requiring insurance companies not to prohibit people from getting coverage because of pre-existing conditions I think is an extraordinarily important principle. I think treating women’s health-care as health-care and not as something separate is important. But I think there are challenges in the Affordable Care Act and it falls short of universal health insurance. I support universal single-payer health-care.
        I don't think you're going to see her taking stands that are way out of the mainstream for Maine.

        As for "people who are going to vote for her are the people who were never going to vote for Collins to begin with"- Collins has gotten re-elected twice largely thanks to votes by Democrats. Allen was unable to make much headway beyond the yellow dog base. Frankly, I think part of this was because Maine women liked the idea of keeping a woman in the Senate, even if they otherwise voted for Democrats. And the minute Allen went negative on Collins, she played the victim and Allen's numbers took a dive and never recovered.

        There were some lessons learned by Maine Dems from that campaign. The state party and the activist base here is excited about this race and our candidate. Skepticism is to be expected, but cynicism is not required.

        At the very least, having a progressive challenger may move Collins to do the right thing more often in the coming year. (We may have already seen some evidence of that.) Support from the national grassroots can only help.

        Support a Progressive Dem from Maine for US Senate! www.bellowsforsenate.com

        by Illegitimi non carborundum on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 03:49:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you're making my point (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sacman701

          I don't think there are too many people who wouldn't already be Bellows supporters who read the Portland Phoenix; in the mainstream Maine press (which is mostly how I've followed this race) she is portrayed as primarily being about civil liberties and uses rhetoric like "constitutional crisis" to describe the NDAA (not trying to debate the merits of that statement, but that's speaking only to the base).  The people she needs to be talking to are people who voted for Collins in the past, and convince them that she would be a better Senator than Collins is, enough so to kick Collins out of office, and I haven't yet seen much of her trying to do that (her being a Democrat and a woman isn't going to be enough).  I hope she proves me wrong and she's a great candidate.

          •  Of course- Former Collins voters (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            will absolutely be a key demographic.

            Please keep in mind here that Bellows only publicly launched this campaign on Oct. 23. Energizing the base is step one, not the entire game plan.

            And I hope she proves you wrong, too. ;-)

            Support a Progressive Dem from Maine for US Senate! www.bellowsforsenate.com

            by Illegitimi non carborundum on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 11:22:35 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Not so sure about that. Bellows has deep roots in (0+ / 0-)

        the state and comes from a working class background. Collins has been caught up in the DC bubble for years and thinks moderation is somewhere just slightly to the left of the rest of the GOP.

  •  The slippery slope of gay marriage... (13+ / 0-)

    One of the more humorous things about Rep. Awana's floor speech against gay marriage was that she compared it to marrying your cousin. What she seemed blissfully unaware of throughout her speech, is that it's already legal to marry your cousin in Hawaii. So she's now been justified in that paranoiac fear, in a certain sense, in that they're now both legal. Just not in the order I think she was fearing.

    Congratulations Hawaii.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:12:47 AM PST

  •  VA-AG Herring (7+ / 0-)

    Started the day -130

    38 vote net gain from ATown

    -92 Herring

  •  Trivia.... (8+ / 0-)

    What is the nation's only Kerry-McCain-Obama county, going Democratic in 2004 and 2012 but Republican in 2008?

  •  Here's a map related to last Tuesday's election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, psychicpanda, CF of Aus

    What does it represent?

  •  Just finished watching Caprica (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    Was wondering if anyone else here watched it and what they thought. I know it gets badmouthed a lot, but I actually liked it. I think its biggest (and probably fatal) crime was taking too long to really get going, but the last 2/3rds and especially the second half of the show was pretty darn good IMO, and while it's not a Firefly-level tragedy, I think it deserved a second season.

    •  I have some mixed-feelings on Caprica (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem

      On one hand I did like the characters and was really interested in seeing where things went. The last episode was really good and I do regret that we didn't get to see more.

      I had two main problems with Caprica. Things definitely moved too slowly. I think towards the end of the show they got a better handle on it and sped things up, but the first half was pretty agonizing at times.

      I also hated the constant fake-outs. It would look like something really interesting was happening but it would always turn out to be a test or illusion or something. At times it got hard to really care about some big events because I was sure it would be fake (And I was often right).  

      I think Caprica had potential and I was sorry to see it go. I think all the problems I had with it were fixable and judging by the "Next season on Caprica" preview they had some really good ideas in store.  

      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:41:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  i remember seeing the "next season on Caprica" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff

        preview and thinking, "That looks pretty cool. Why didn't they make that show?"

      •  Yeah, for me (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff

        The real breaking point in the show when it went from "meh" to "this is pretty interesting" was the Apotheosis demo. Before that, while there were a few signs of promise and interesting characters that kept me watching, there wasn't as much of a sense that there was a major threat that extended beyond the characters we were dealing with. I also agree that there were a lot of fake-outs, although that was subverted somewhat with the scene with Sam, the Cylon, and the rival gang. Still, overall, a much better show than people tend to give it credit for.

        •  I think a problem it had was too different frm BSG (0+ / 0-)

          The fact was most of its audience members were going to be fans of Battlestar Galactica and giving them something much different was going to be problematic.

          It's always a tricky balance: They couldn't just repackage the stuff that worked on Galactica and hope it worked again without being repetitive. But having something really different was a bit too much.

          I wish Blood and Chrome had succeeded. It could have been the winning formula: a show set in wartime in a familiar setting but with a different spin (12 colonies fighting the Cylons as opposed to one rag tad fleet). I didn't really like the webisodes that much but they had a potentially very good premise.

          Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

          by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:06:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Where the AG race stands right now (15+ / 0-)
    Situation: Obenshain's lead has melted to 82 votes, and red counties have mostly counted their provs. We now wait for the bluest counties.
    @Taniel

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:26:00 AM PST

    •  This comes down to provisionals in Fairfax (5+ / 0-)

      If there are no more big errors, this race could literally be in the single digits... of voters.

      Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

      by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:46:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My guess here (5+ / 0-)

      is that Herring will gain between 65-80 in Fairfax due to provisionals.  Hopefully there are enough in Richmond and other places to put Herring over the top.

      But I really see this being really really close, barring anymore big canvass errors.  Within 20 votes either way.  This is one election that there is a serious possibility of being overturned in a recount.

       

      Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

      by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:11:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Recounts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        In my view usually favor Dems but not always.

        In both FL in 2000 and MN in 2008, we made gains (even though it wasn't enough in FL.) Same with WA GOV in 2004.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

        by Alibguy on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:35:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  In VA-AG in 2005 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, lordpet8

          the R McDonnell expanded his tiny lead in the recount.   I have no idea how the recount would turn out.

          Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

          by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:39:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's really the only recount (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, TrueBlueDem

            I can think of when it went more toward the Republican.

            I'm still surprised the provisionals are not breaking for us as strongly as they usually do. In 2008, Obama netted 50,000 votes or something from votes counted after Wednesday.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

            by Alibguy on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:32:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Wasserman said something about the (7+ / 0-)

          importance of being ahead in the State Board of Elections tally. The Cooch under law has to represent and defend whoever is in the lead in the SBE results. If Obenshain is ahead, I'm sure Cooch will send the entire Virginia bar to vouch for Obenshain's argument. If Herring is in the lead, the Cooch recuses himself and Obenshain has much fewer resources to use during a recount trial. So it's very important that Herring comes out ahead, if only by one vote. It determines who has the legal footing to win the election.

          22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

          by gigantomachyusa on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:41:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It would have been enough in FL (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, TrueBlueDem

          if they had recounted the entire state, as ordered by the FL Supreme Court.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:44:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  There are more provisionals from elsewhere (13+ / 0-)

        Alexandria has 78 provisionals deemed legitimate votes.

        And now Ben Tribbett reports that there are rumors the City of Richmond, heavily Democratic, has not only uncounted provisionals which we know, but perhaps also other missed votes.

        Cross fingers, we have reason to be very cautiously optimistic.

        The big thing is to have the lead going into the recount.  A recount can flip an outcome that is less than 100 votes, but you're always better off ahead than behind because as a rule a recount just doesn't reverse the lead.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:45:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Gov poll (4+ / 0-)

    A little more detail from the Inside Michigan Politics poll released earlier this week has come out.  Snyder narrowly leads Schauer 36.4% to 33.6%.  One other piece of interesting info is this poll has Snyder getting 21% in the city of Detroit.  That seems a little high to me.  I could see him maybe getting 10% but not 21%.  

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...    

    •  Might be 313 area code (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, DCCyclone

      which includes Grosse Point and a few other inner suburbs that aren't as Democratic.

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:08:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  huge undecideds (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome

      why are MI pollsters so weird?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:37:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rule (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, blueonyx, Skaje

      Isn't the rule not to trust a poll with decimals? lol  Anyway, not having been a subscriber of newsletter, I was only able to get some numbers from the Michiagn Democratic Party and called that Snyder couldn't have been ahead more than three since they called it a dead-heat.

      What I was interested and heatened about is Schauer is leading in bellweather Oakland County.  The Detroit number for Snyder is a bit high, and it would be high even if Detroit turns out to be a huge success story (which won't materialize before the election, anyway).  Schauer is also up 11 in Northern Michigan (includes UP).

      All and all, a better-than-crappy poll with a few regional outliers.  But, so long as Schauer keeps his leaders in Oakland County and Northern Michigan, I feel fairly good about this.  I wonder what the leads are like in the capital region where I live?  It looks like Schauer will have to run up the score in the other urban areas outside of West Michigan to be safe.  West Michigan will be hopeless, though.  Though not very religious, Snyder's business credentials make him the perfect kind of candidate for that part of the state, like, right up their alley.

      I'm still waiting to see who jumps in the AG and SoS races, because I think that's going to mean something, this time.

      •  I've heard the thing.... (0+ / 0-)

        about not trusting polls with decimals but I'm not sure it really matters.

        I'm looking forward to seeing who runs for AG and SOS too.  If Jocelyn Benson runs in the 11th, Barb Byrum has been mentioned as a possible SoS candidate.  I think she would be a good candidate.  Mark Totten is the only person I've heard mentioned for AG.  I don't know much about him so I'm not sure how I feel about his candidacy.  

        •  I thought (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I thought polls with deicmals was a running gag, on here.  Anyway, aside from that, as has been said, a lot of Michigan polls seem to have a really large number of undecideds, when you should be pushing people to make a decision to see which way the "undecideds" and/or independents really lean.  Otherwise, these kind of polls are kind of useless.  

          I mean, on the ground and in my gut, there does seem to be a very slight tappering off of the Right-to-Work anger that happened nearly a year ago, now, so I'd probably put this at a toss-up but with a "tilt R".  That said, I don't think Snyder has yet opened up a legitimate lead.  We're still  in this really odd holding pattern.

          •  Toss-up (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen

            I would consider it a toss-up with no lean/tilt.  The fact that Snyder has already run ads more that a year before the election is very telling.  An incumbent shouldn't need to be spending money that early if the race was even slightly leaning his/her way.  

            •  I don't really agree (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              Early ads can help define an opponent, as witness the usefulness of President Obama's early anti-Romney ads, while the primaries were still going on.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:23:10 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I don't know (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              In a tied race, you always air on the side of the incumbent, usually, no matter how horrible a politician they are.  Now, if Schauer had been leading through the fall, I might thinking differently.

              There have three polls since Schauer lead in a PPP poll in late May-early June.  Admittedly, all three polls have been less than stellar pollsters in the past, but they are all we have to go on.  Denno Research had Snyder up 43%-37% in late July.  EPIC had Snyder up 44%-36% in early September.  And a particularly ridiculous outliar by Mitchell Research in early October had Snyder up 50%-36%.

              The problem is that this is all we have to go on.

              •  It's early (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                If it were right before the election, I could understand why a toss-up would favor the incumbent.  There's, however, plenty of time for the race to become a lean dem race.    

                I'm pretty skeptical of most MI polls.  I have no confidence in that Mitchell poll.  The political breakdown of the poll was 29D/28R/44I compared to 40D/30R/30I in 2012.  

                •  While (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  While I hope you've seen that I'm bullish on the Dems in demeanor for all things Michigan politics, next year, realisitically, I don't see how anyone could argue that this thing isn't tilted for Snyder since the summer.  It may be barely a tilt, but Schauer is very clearly not leading anything, if even they are still statistically tied.  And, really, this is to be expected since Schauer has done very little to get his name out there.

                  Until Schauer is able to bring his name recognition up to at least as well as Snyder's, I don't see why you're pushing back so hard against the idea that Snyder's leading.  Just because you're so many months out from an election doesn't mean it doesn't have a lean, and I think the lean is fairly clear, here.  People will lean towards the devil they know, until someone else is prominent enough to present and alternative.  

                  I live in Lansing and haven't seen Schauer hold any event a major significance here since he's been running.  A year is shorter than a year when you're running againt a self-fuding, multi-millionaire incumbent and his national business buddies.  Just sayin'.

                  •  You can't expect him to be everywhere (0+ / 0-)

                    I know since September has has done 3 or 4 events in the Ann Arbor area. He has been all over the state. His media team has been doing a good job pushes stories out there like the NERD fund story and now the Court of Claims story. That is all they should be doing now. This far out from the election his main job is fundraising. Not burning through that money is critical.

                    That being said he should be down now in polls because the incumbent's name recognition. Any time he is up in the polls, you probably can think of it as Snyder vs Generic Democrat. As a result, most of Schauer's support is soft. Basically all these polls just tell us that Snyder is weak and that is all Schauer needs to keep fundraising.

                    The numbers will change. Snyder tried to get his numbers back up with an ad. I personally don't think he can really improve his numbers that much. The main thing he can do is tank Schauer's. The key to this race will be what the polls look like once Snyder goes negative.

                    M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

                    by slacks on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:04:53 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  VA-AG official counts of FFX (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gigantomachyusa

    Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Did some time at a super PAC focused on NJ lege races. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:54:22 AM PST

  •  What do you guys think about the polarization in (5+ / 0-)

    this most recent Virginia election?  Virginia politics is now east vs. west, something it has really never been before.

    It's not just the dramatic dropoff for Dems in coal country; Terry McAuliffe performed terribly in the entire western half of the state.  Only four counties west of US-29 (basically cuts the state in half from Danville through Lynchburg and Charlottesville up to Winchester) gave McAuliffe more than one-third of the vote and only one gave him more than 40%.  Compare that with Tim Kaine in 2005 who, despite being untraditionally weak in the west, got over 40% of the vote in seventeen counties.  Western VA was never strongly Dem but the last few Democratic governors (Warner, Baliles, even Wilder) garnered significant support there.  It was a swingy area, but now everything west of US-29 is blood red except for tiny blue dots in Roanoke and Blacksburg.

    On the other end of the spectrum, you have the urban core in the eastern part of VA that rejected the GOP by unprecedented margins.  Cuccinelli was in the low twenties in Alexandria, Arlington and Norfolk and in the teens in Richmond.  Even in the exurban and rural parts of VA, only three counties gave McAuliffe less than 30% of the vote, thanks to the black population.

    Cue the secessionist movement?

    •  It's pretty interesting to watch (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, TrueBlueDem

      Also, I saw a map on David Leip's Election Atlas showing the swing from 2009 to 2013. Deeds actually performed better than McAuliffe did in quite a few western counties (and not just those in his State Senate district.)

      It may have been that McAuliffe was such an urban/suburban candidate so he overperformed in NoVA (I'm sure his performance there was helped by Cuccinelli's social issues positions.) As for Richmond and Tidewater, McAuliffe did a good job at turning out African Americans and in Tidewater, the shutdown may have had an effect.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

      by Alibguy on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:34:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Downstate suburbs are still swingy (7+ / 0-)

      The Richmond suburbs and big swaths of Hampton Roads are still winnable for the GOP.  So the "east" isn't so uniformly Democratic, even though it has been the past couple elections.

      What is happening otherwise is perfectly normal and reasonable.  It makes sense for conservatives to vote for Republicans and liberals to vote for Democrats.  So of course we're going to lose most western locales in the state.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:47:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It makes me appreciate just how much (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, James Allen

      the current shape of the states is a GOP gerrymander in one respect; can you imagine if the Appalachian region was just one or two states rather than West Virginia and then getting chopped to pieces by several others? Every single non-WV state would become considerably more Democratic and growing more so.

      I'll have to eventually revisit the diary I wrote about two years ago on the subject, but without Appalachian Virginia (Shenendoah Valley+everything west of and including Roanoke), the state is almost out of reach for the GOP, certainly at the presidential level.

    •  Western VA had been trending away from us for (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, TrueBlueDem

      quite some time.  Honestly its amazing how long Rick Boucher was able to hang on. Reagan was winning the area in landslides and yet Boucher held on. He even defeated a sitting incumbent Republican (by a mere 1000 votes) when he first took office. Bill Clinton was the last D presidential candidate to win it and he only narrowly won it 46-43 (in 1996)

      The only other Dem that has done really well there has been Mark Warner.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:48:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My big concern about VA-AG (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    is that some of these R counties are going to manufacture more "canvassing errors" for Obenshain if he trails after provisionals.  

    I personally have serious doubts whether the Bedford county error are real votes.    It smells like fraud to me.

    Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

    by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:16:26 AM PST

  •  VA-AG Alexandria accepting 78 provisionals (7+ / 0-)

    Herring got 74% of the vote there, so that could net him 38-39 if the votes break down in the same way.

  •  All this talk of recounts (10+ / 0-)

    has reminded me of one of the craziest elections I can remember, the 2012 Democratic Primary for the CT State House of Representatives' 5th District. The party-endorsed candidate was Windsor Democratic Town Committee Chair and Union official Leo Canty, while his main challenger was Hartford community organizer and Michelle Rhee acolyte Brandon McGee. Also in the running was Windsor Councilman Donald Trinks.

    The results of the initial election showed a perfect tie between Canty and McGee, who both received 774 votes. Trinks came in a distant third. After a recount, Canty was declared the winner by one vote. But the McGee campaign filed a complaint due to alleged discrepancies in the recount, so the Secretary of the State ordered a second recount, the first in CT's history. The second recount once again yielded a tie between Canty and McGee.

    Then, Windsor officials announced they had discovered an additional absentee ballot. It belonged to a 91-year old nursing home patient who had voted with an absentee ballot a week before the election, but died before election day, rendering her vote invalid. But election officials realized they were mistaken, and she actually wasn't dead. So they opened her sealed absentee ballot in a dramatic ceremony...and she voted for neither Canty nor McGee but for Trinks!

    So the SOTS had to order a second election (thankfully, Trinks decided not to run.) McGee narrowly won.

    Proud Progressive Social Studies teacher. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:11:42 AM PST

  •  Comet ISON (5+ / 0-)

    This is a pic of 2011's Comet Lovejoy taken from Roma, Queensland, Australia on Christmas Day, 2011. (You may remember that from the news back then.) Another comet, Comet ISON, is supposed to be visible over the next couple of months. ISON is scheduled to be closest to the sun on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 28), and then will have its closest approach to Earth (40 million miles away) on Dec. 26. If all goes well, it should be visible throughout this time. Also, ISON has the potential to be a better show than Lovejoy because ISON is estimated to be about 3 miles in diameter while Lovejoy was only estimated at 1600 feet in diameter.

  •  Y'know, on the plus side, if Herring wins (8+ / 0-)

    Then there won't be any qualified voter purging next time around. That's definitely going to help us.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:15:14 AM PST

    •  Well there will & should be some purging (12+ / 0-)

      Voter rolls legitimately should be scrubbed of voters who've moved out of state or otherwise might be legitimately removed.

      But the standard for removal should be very high, the evidence should have to be very strong.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:28:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Precisely n/t (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:40:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Sure, that's why I said "qualified" voter purging (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, MetroGnome, askew

        If they're not qualified and should be legitimately removed, then by all means remove them from the rolls. But nothing like the Republicans purging thousands of qualified voters.

        By the way, any news about Aneesh Chopra's future plans? I saw that Blue Virgina was proud of him helping the VA Dems even after his loss to Northam. It'd be a shame to just have him fade into the woodwork.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:52:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I haven't asked him, but... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, MichaelNY, wwmiv

          ...I think he ought to consider running again, albeit not statewide again until he gets elected to something smaller.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:00:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Does he live in your district? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            Get him to run against Comstock.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:57:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He does not, but... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv

              ...that would be a good race for him if he lived in HD-34.

              I'm afraid our failure to get her this time will discourage would-be recruits in 2015, when the turnout is the worst of the four separate Virginia cycles.  There is only the state legislature and county offices on the ballot, nothing statewide, nothing anyone considers sexy.  So it's the worst cycle of the four.  The Fairfax County Dems, including in Dranesville District where I'm on the committee, do great at voter ID and GOTV and crushed it in our county in 2011, and there's no reason we can't do the same again in 2015.  But Comstock is resilient......while 16 Democrats or Democratic-endorsed non-partisan candidates won their races on my ballot for various things (all the way down to the county Soil and Water Conservation Board), Comstock coasted to a 55-45 win over a very good recruited candidate.  She works her ass off, she's smart enough to emphasize nonpartisan work to the broader electorate, and she's conservative enough to energize the local GOP base into helping her in every way possible.  Not to mention she's a well-connected Beltway activist who has fundraising connections nationwide.  I didn't see the final numbers yet, but she was close to $1 million raised shortly before election day this year, and I bet she eventually hit that mark.  That's $1 million for a state legislative seat in the lower chamber.  And I'm pretty sure she'd be the first-ever $1 million candidate if she pulled that off.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:47:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  If my calculations are correct (0+ / 0-)

                McAuliffe won the 34th 52-42, so Comstock way overperformed Cuccinelli. That probably will scare off serious challengers in 2015.

                I also did the numbers on the 32nd, where Elizabeth Miller lost by 3. McAuliffe looks to have won by nearly 20 percent! He won by about 57-38 (there are three split precincts, so I can't be totally sure about these numbers, but it looks correct to me).

      •  Right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        Especially since voter rolls don't clean themselves with voters actually die or leave.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:04:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I actually have someone to scrub! (3+ / 0-)

          Long ago, some dude lived in our house who is still listed as registered to vote here.  I looked him up in the VAN, and his only vote listed was in 1994.  He wasn't the previous resident of this house, I know who that was and it was a different elderly couple (who, by the way, were Blackwater founder Erik Prince's in-laws......yes, really, that's a whole different fun story).

          I actually even got a new voter card for him a year or so ago.

          I want to stop getting anything in his name and want to contact the elections board to have him removed.

          The only hesitation I've had is that what if the guy moved overseas but is using his old address for voting purposes, but votes absentee?  But then I realized he hasn't voted in forever, so he should be purged.

          I just haven't gotten around to it.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:59:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  wouldn't happen here (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think if you don't vote in any of 4 consecutive elections you're purged.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:48:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  When (0+ / 0-)

      When someone clearly qualifies something, I don't think it's serves anyone else to be pedantic.  It comes off as concern trollish.  Just sayin'.  I only bring this up, because I keep seeing it happen.

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (8+ / 0-)

    Panel- Host Ferrell Wellman, Jack Brammer from the Herald Leader, Joe Arnold from WHAS-11 in Louisville and Laura Unger from the Courier Journal

    Issue 1- The Senate Race and Labor- Alison Grimes got an endorsement from the AFL-CIO. Not a surprise, but this is much earlier than usual and Brammer and Arnold note they were much more enthusiastic than in previous races. They have 220,000 members in Kentucky, not including other members of their households. Labor in Kentucky is very active and organized. Mitch has energized them even more by backing a national right to work law. Kentucky is the only non right to work state in the south. I can say that labor is very powerful in Louisville with the large block of UAW members at Ford, IBEW members at GE, Teamsters at UPS, and UFCW at Kroger, as well as the very politically active Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 502. Labor is also important with the Mine Workers, who have major offices in Madisonville and Pikeville. They can play a major force in helping Grimes in coal country. They did not endorse President Obama's reelection.

    Issues in the Senate Race- Mitch and Rand Paul voted no on ENDA, but Grimes says she favors it. However, she has been quiet on same sex marriage, which is very unpopular in Kentucky. Mitch also got a Defender of Freedom from the NRA, as thanks for him blocking new gun laws this year. No endorsement yet, but he is likely to get it soon. Grimes, who is an NRA member, and gun control opponent, challenged Mitch to a shooting match, and even through out a photo. https://twitter.com/... Joe Arnold asked Mitch if he would take her up on that, but he got no answer. The Mitch people have countered that she has raised money from anti-gun people in Hollywood and Las Vegas.

    Matt Bevin- He says Mitch is continuing his "war on conservatives". His argument is that the ad agency doing the Senate Conservatives Fund ads were being blackballed by Mitch and encouraging all other GOP Senators to do the same. Jack Brammer notes that Bevin has reserved the Capitol Rotunda in Frankfort next Friday from noon to one. He is likely to file that day and make an official announcement. Joe Arnold notes that an even more right wing group, the Gun Owners of America, has backed Bevin.

    Rand Paul- Joe Arnold thinks this may reflect more on his management style, comparing it to the Southern Avenger story. Paul fails to nip stories in the bud, instead of his pushing back on the stories and giving them a life of their own, where by the time he admits mistakes, the damage has been done.

    Governor's Race 2015- GOP Ag Comm James Comer a group that if he was governor, "He couldn't be controlled" as a message to party bosses. Brammer thinks he was talking about some party bosses, including Sen. McConnell, Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Somerset), and St. Sen. Chris Girdler (R-Somerset), who may be backing former Louisville Metro Councilman and the near winner of the 2010 Metro Metro Mayor race, Hal Heiner, who is a wealthy businessman. He did this in Somerset, which is an in your face shot at the Rogers machine. Also, Jess Correll, a wealthy banker from Lincoln County, announced he was backing Heiner. There were also rumors that former Auditor Crit Luallen would announce for Governor this next week, but she has denied that rumor. Jack Brammer thinks she will say yes or no to a run for Governor by the end of the month though. He also notes her knee surgery went very well. He mentioned former Owensboro Mayor David Atkinson and former UK President Lee Todd as potential running mates. Other likely Dems for Gov are AG Jack Conway, former LG Dan Morgiardo, and Auditor Adam Edelen. Also, 2011 candidate Phil Moffet, will not run for Governor, but for the open HD-32 (vacated by Rep. Julie Raque Adams (R-Louisville), who is running for an open SD-36) in Eastern Jefferson County. He will face former County GOP Chair Shelly May.

    Health in Kentucky- Laura Unger talks about rates of cancer in Kentucky. Breast cancer is closer to average than lung and cervical cancer, where Kentucky is near the top of the country. There is hope the Medicaid expansion will help these problems, but I have to say people in the Bluegrass State will have to stop being the leading smoking state in American before those lung cancer rates go down. Kentucky also had the 3rd highest number of prescription drug overdoses in 2010, but this rate has declined thanks to closings of pill mills and other enforcement. Look for AG Jack Conway to emphasize this in his race for Governor.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:36:08 AM PST

  •  FL-Gov: The People's Rally! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, Gygaxian

    It's only a web video, but would have made a damn good first ad.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:05:36 AM PST

  •  SD Sen: Pressler in as an Independent? (11+ / 0-)
    RAPID CITY, S.D. – Former Senator Larry Pressler (R-SD) is considering running for the United States Senate as an Independent.
    http://nativetimes.com/...

    Vote Democratic. We're not perfect-but they're NUTS! - Barney Frank

    by Minnesota Mike on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:09:32 AM PST

  •  NJ-St. Sen: Good riddance to bad rubbish: (9+ / 0-)

    Former Sen. Pete Inverso is so sore that he lost to Sen. Linda Greenstein, that he won't congratulate or concede to her, saying she should be ashamed at herself for running attack ads: http://www.nj.com/...
    So glad she defeated this entitled chode.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:17:18 AM PST

    •  Lots of Republicans were sore over the super PACs (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      running against them.  To me, I see it as comeuppance for 2010-2012 GOP super PAC spending.

      One candidate, SD-02 GOP candidate Sheriff Frank Balles had his daughter narrate an ad pushing back at attack, but not by factually rebutting but by basically saying "for shame:"
      http://www.youtube.com/...

      Bharat said he worked for the NJ Dems biggest super PAC ally.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:22:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's waiting for provisionals (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      before he goes forward with anything.  And he partially blames Libertarian DeZarn for stealing votes (though even if all 1001 of DeZarn's votes went to Inverso, he'd still lose).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:30:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does anyone know (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    What the procedure is for ties in Virginia elections?

  •  VA State Board of Elections did something shady (13+ / 0-)

    Yesterday, the State Board of Elections changed the rules about provisional ballots.  Instead of allowing legal representation to be able to challenge and vouch for provisional ballots, they changed the rules and said that voters had to be there to get their vote accepted.  This may have huge implications for provisional ballots in Fairfax.  

  •  If you're on Twitter and don't follow Taniel (6+ / 0-)

    Follow Taniel.  He's doing a great job keeping track of the VA AG recount.  

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:26:36 AM PST

  •  This isn't really worth a full diary just yet (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Setsuna Mudo, Skaje

    Maybe if I finish the other states that cycle with really shitty Dem maps like Alabama, but I was thinking on the subject of just how crappy the 2002 map that Mississippi Democrats drew was. They didn't really even put forth a gerrymander, despite having total control of the process. The state went from 5 districts to 4 in reapportionment, but instead of protecting sophomore Rep. Ronnie Shows, they sliced and diced his district and locked in the 2-2 party breakdown by deathmatching him with Chip Pickering and only marginally improved Gene Taylor's conservadem seat, who didn't need it with his decade plus of landslide wins.

     photo MississippiAlternate2000sDem1-1-2StateView_zps66036539.png

     photo MississippiAlternate2000sDem1-1-22000Summary_zps40ab5c82.png

    Here instead of destroyed Pickering's district by dividing it 4 ways and preserved and strengthened Shows considerably. His district goes from 40% black to 46% black and while it voted for Bush twice, Obama carried it twice and Shows was reelected overwhelmingly in a much more conservative district in 2000. To make that possible, I fully vote sunk the 1st and weakened Taylor by about 2% and Thompson by about 3%. Both would have been fine and though Taylor would have of course lost in 2010 that's really unavoidable and unforeseeable at the time.

    The net outcome is that Shows wins handily from 2002-2008 and might have even survived in 2010 and if so in 2012 as well. We don't get Travis Childers, but that trade off is certainly worth it. Plus, the 3rd district would have been just shy of majority black in 2010 and Republicans would have run afoul of VRA Section 5 by dismantling it, prompting the DoJ to deny pre-clearance. Obama won the 3rd last year by 5% which means a Dem almost certainly would win it.

    •  Taylor's wasn't even conservadem really, though (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      was it? My understanding is that it has long been Republican.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:53:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're right: It's been GOP for a long time. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, James Allen

        I don't think the district or its predecessors has voted for a Dem POTUS since 1956. Trent Lott became its first GOP Rep. all the way back in 1972. Taylor ran in 1988 when Lott left to run for Senate and lost to Republican Larkin Smith; after Smith died Taylor won the 1989 special. Taylor's success seems to have been more of a Taylor thing than a Demosaur thing.  

        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:59:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think voters were still willing to ticket split (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf

          more back then.

          CSPAN still has the original debate from Taylor's special election.
          http://www.c-spanvideo.org/...
          It's pretty interesting to watch.

          Taylor actually highlights that he can do more for district as member of the majority party in congress (the D leadership had already promised him all the good committee assignments). He actually ran as a pro-environment, anti-drug, and even slightly anti-war candidate ( he said Vietnam was a mistake and that we shouldn't go to war unless we have the full support and backing of the people) "I will not waste the life of one American in war that the entire nation is not fully committed to"

          So it was a different Gene Taylor that ran in 1989 than who left in 2011.

          The GOP candidate came off as an outsider, who had not served in the military and comes as sorta a liberal today(since he believed in the importance of government in social security, medicare, etc).

          "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

          by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:31:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, this was a district that elected Trent Lott (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        from 1972 to 1988 and as you can see went for Bush in a massive landslide even though I only packed it a little bit more. Taylor was regularly winning with over 70% of the vote though and could easily take the hit if not much more. The first version I drew swapped out Hattiesburg for more of Rankin County which made his district just 16% black, but that wouldn't have been realistic.

      •  True though Democrats still dominated at the local (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        level when Taylor first ran for office. Despite the heavy GOP skew at the national level, it took many decades for the GOP to build up strength at the local level.

        "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

        by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:17:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  To elaborate further on the 2002 maps (0+ / 0-)

      My thinking at the moment is that in addition to +1 in Mississippi we could have netted 1-2 more in Alabama (1 black seat or 1-2 blue dogs), 2 more in Indiana (unpack the 1st/maybe use Ft. Wayne, put Lafayette in the 8th), 2 more in North Carolina (8th enters Charlotte from south instead of 9th, drops uber Republican Cabarrus, Stanly, 11th gets more aggressive), 1 in Georgia (11th gets more ATL), and god knows how many if they had bit the bullet of a shit budget for 2 years in exchange for solid control over the districts in the California congressional map and legislative map. Overall I'm getting 7-8 in the South+Indiana which all seem plausible, and I don't know how many seats a Burtonmander could have yielded in 2002 in California which is more of a stretch b/c of the process. Given how we won 204 seats in 2002 that could have been enough to give us a narrow majority, which would be weird with the senate flipping the other way.

      On the other hand, Republicans definitely botched things in Pennsylvania by not combining Holden and Kanjorski among other things which gets them +1 while they easily could have cracked FL-02 in a nastier way, which gets them +2, and then targeted Matheson more effectively getting them +3.

      Thoughts? All of those changes (aside from CA) seem well within the realm of plausibility given the 2000/2001 circumstances.

  •  Perhaps a taboo question, but (0+ / 0-)

    We all know that Terry McAuliffe is Terry McAuliffe. And we all know why many Virginians didn't want to vote for him.

    There is a non-negligible chance, probably bigger than usual, that he screws up. Let's presume that Republicans nominate someone like Cuccinelli again, perhaps even the man himself, in 2017, with McAuliffe having favorables in the 20's - would it have been better in the long term for Democrats if Cuccinelli would have won in 2013 instead and we could have stomped the Republicans in 2017? It is the redistricting year, after all.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 11:55:35 AM PST

    •  Depends on whether you think (0+ / 0-)

      Obenshain=Cuccinelli.   My guess is that Obenshain is the GOP nominee in 2017, win or lose the AG race.

      And no, it is never better if sexual pervert teabagger Cuccinelli is elected governor.  The guy is a clone of Santorum on social issues.  

      Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

      by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:00:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Gov.-elect McAuliffe cannot run for reelection... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      And a Democrat like Sen. Mark Warner has a separate brand that McAuliffe probably could not tarnish.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:00:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No because we have an ace in the hole (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Mark Warner could run and crush whoever the GOP puts up as long as Dems in congress don't utterly tank, no matter how bad McAuliffe's approvals get.

    •  No, I'm sorry but that's a silly way to think (11+ / 0-)

      This isn't a game.  It matters who the Governor is the next four years.  This isn't football, the purpose of winning isn't its own sake, and the purpose of an election isn't to prepare for the next election.

      And your notion of what 2017 will be like is just head-shaking.  You have no idea whether McAuliffe will be popular, or if Cuccinelli would be popular had he won.  You just never know what's going to happen the next four years.  That Cuccinelli is a nightmare for Democrats and liberals doesn't mean he couldn't find a way to remain popular with a majority of voters.  And McAuliffe is perfectly capable of running the executive branch and handling the responsibilities involved.

      And you're mistaken on redistricting, too.  The odd Virginia calendar means the GOP legislature effectively has a choice when to redistrict based on who wins the Governorships in 2017 and 2021.  If it's a Democratic Governor entering 2020, then the legislature holds off until after the 2021 election to redistrict in 2022.  That violates the law, but there's no penalty in the law for the delay, and they've done this before for the Congressional map.  For redistricting, we effectively have to win both in 2017 and 2021, which means putting together a big streak of dominance.  That's possible given Virginia's political trajectory, but not ensured.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:19:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was a hypothetical scenario, (0+ / 0-)

        Based on the current situation, one that could be called plausible, but is nowhere said to be probable. I'm sorry if I wasn't clear enough.

        I didn't know that about VA redistricting, though, so it does render the scenario moot.

        If elections isn't a game, what is this site for, then? Isn't the DKE basic premise about elections as a game?

        19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

        by Tayya on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:26:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not quite the way you think (4+ / 0-)

          We follow elections as sport, but not as a frivolous and inconsequential one.  We don't game out losing now to win later.  We don't game out elections as if winning for its own sake is the very and only point.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:39:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  We do convert these consequences to sport (0+ / 0-)

            We root for Team Blue to win, because we believe that Team Blue winning is good for the people. We just happen to use elections as our perspective and how we measure success.

            So my question could - note the word could - be translated to if a hypothetical Cuccinelli-McAuliffe succession would have been better for the people than a hypothetical McAuliffe-Cuccinelli succession. With redistricting a moot point, the evidence points to that it would not be better for the people. And we'll probably all agree that it's the most important thing.

            19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

            by Tayya on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:15:22 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Redistricting not the most important thing (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fearlessfred14

              I can appreciate if you don't live in Virginia, redistricting is the one thing in Virginia elections that matters to you.

              But for those of us in Virginia, our lives the next four years are directly affected by who is the Governor now.  And who is in all the other offices, too.

              And the problem with your hypothetical is that it's not reliable to try to guess how 2017 will go.  Again, it's wishful/pessimistic (depending on which guy were Governor) to assume either of these guys, as Governor, would be unpopular come 2017.  Whatever image a guy has as a candidate can flip in office.  It happens.

              And IMO winning begets winning, I like our odds better in 2017 if we're the incumbent party already.  I like having the sitting Governor on our side, helping his would-be successor in various ways.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:41:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  so you're saying (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        we shouldn't have voted McCain in 2008 to keep control of Congress in 2010?

        Oops...too late...

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:24:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think the VA State house may be a good foil (0+ / 0-)

      for Tmac.

      Since the Dems don't hold all the levers of government they can't get the whole blame.

      As long Tmac doesn't start taking "gifts" like his predecessor and doesn't create some crazy scandals, I think he can manage.

      "I would rather the man who presents something for my consideration subject me to a zephyr of truth and a gentle breeze of responsibility rather than blow me down with a curtain of hot wind." - Grover Cleveland.

      by lordpet8 on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:35:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully that won't be an issue (6+ / 0-)

        It sounds like the governor-elect intends to address that gifts issue head-on. Story here.

        Standing in a state Capitol that’s been tarnished by scandal, McAuliffe reiterated a campaign pledge to sign two executive orders on the day he takes office in January. One would limit the value of any gifts to himself or immediate family to $100.

        That pledge is a reaction to the gifts scandal that has consumed outgoing Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R), whose family has accepted more than $160,000 in luxury gifts and money described as loans from Jonnie R. Williams Sr., a businessman who also gave Cuccinelli gifts worth more than $18,000. State law allows office-holders to accept gifts of any size as long as they disclose those worth more than $50.

        The other executive order, which McAuliffe said he would sign first, will protect state employees, including gays, lesbians and transgender people, from discrimination on the job.

        Damn it feels good to have a Democrat!

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:42:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's going to get better than this (8+ / 0-)

          McAuliffe campaigned partly on ethics reform, and he's going to push legislation that the GOP Assembly either will have to swallow and allow TMac a big early legislative accomplishment that's universally popular, or stymie the thing and get blowback, handing Dems a stick to hit them over their heads with in 2015.

          This is delicious because Virginia GOPers disdain McAuliffe as, in their view, the very embodiment of corrupt self-dealing, and yet he's going to get credit for ethics reform of all things to fix his very image, all to clean up a mess caused by Republican corruption by McDonnell and to a lesser extent Cuccinelli.  That's going to drive the state GOP and its state legislators absolutely apeshit.  But I think they'll end up swallowing it.

          McAuliffe needs to get that done and then manage budget negotiations well and maybe be able to use his wide net of personal connections to bring some employers into the state, and then he'll have a job approval that surprises people.

          The expectations of McAuliffe are so low, it benefits him, since it won't be that hard for him to exceed them.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:54:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Fairfax county delays counting of prov. votes (13+ / 0-)

    Fairfax official tweets they will not count provisionals until Tueaday! But good reason: to allow voters to come in, in wake of SBE ruling.

  •  It gets closer... (7+ / 0-)
    15-4 herring with richmond provisionals.  Newest statewide count 1,103,399 for Obenshain, 1,103,377 for Herring.  22 votes.
    @notlarrysabato

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:31:21 PM PST

  •  Dogpile in D.C. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

    Four city councilmembers and now a well-known businessman are running for mayor, and it remains unclear whether Mayor Gray will seek reelection. Story here.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:36:47 PM PST

  •  When last did the Dems rule these leg chambers? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, BeloitDem

    Ballotpedia has an awesome chart of what party has had control over what legislative chambers since 1992. There are a bunch where the minority party has had a majority the whole time.

    I'm wondering the last time the Dems controlled (or at least tied in) the AZ House, ID House and Senate, IN Sen, KS Sen, MI Sen, ND House, OH Sen, SD House, UT House and Sen, and WY House and Sen.

    Same question for the GOP. When did they last have the CA Sen, CT House, DE Sen, HI House and Sen, KY House MD House and Sen, MA House and Sen, NM House or Sen, NY Assembly, RI House and Sen, and WV House and Sen.

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:04:09 PM PST

  •  17 votes (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, MichaelNY, askew

    Wow, it is really cutting it close. Still waiting on Fairfax though.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:30:27 PM PST

  •  Is anyone else unspeakably angry (28+ / 0-)

    About the VA SBoE ruling? I mean, they already did everything they could to prevent Dem-leaning constituencies from voting with Voter ID and broad purges, but when it appears even that won't work, they literally change the rules of the game after the election.

  •  Time for more musings on Utah politics! (4+ / 0-)

    I've been fairly good with not bringing up UT pols every other post I make this week, so I'm going to muse about it now.

    First, AG John Swallow's dying corruption scandal has flared up again, due to two years worth of emails and other electronic data vanishing from every single computer he's touched since he started as chief deputy attorney general in 2011. Swallow says it's equipment failure, but Holly On the Hill, a popular conservative-leaning Utah politics blog points out that he's full of crap. Also, he's raised $100k for legal fees (mostly from pay-day lenders and himself), and the legislature has put out 9 more subpoenas on the stuff he's touched. Also, Swallow hates everyone who thinks he's a crook, including the award-winning lawyer appointed by the legislature to investigate him. I would say that he's probably going to be impeached or resign, but I said that several months ago and it still hasn't happened, so who knows. He may also still be on the ballot in 2016 if he survives this scandal; very few people like him, but coincidentally, the folks that do (like the Utah Eagle Forum leader and arch social conservative Gayle Ruzicka) are powerful within the delegate system.

    Speaking of that, the Utah Republican Party is throwing everything it's got at the Count My Vote guys to stop them from putting a legal change to primaries only on the 2014 ballot. They're making small reforms to the caucus system, they're proposing a "dual-track system" (apparently still a caucus system, but with a way to potentially bypass it and go to a primary? not sure), and so forth. Count My Vote isn't budging, and the Utah Dems are getting pissed off because they feel like they're getting dragged along with this whole mess without their own voice. I'm getting the feeling that Count My Vote will get what it wants (a primary-only system), which is a shame, since the Utah Dems can't really afford primaries all the time. Though we don't usually get more than one candidate for a race, so I don't know how much it'll affect us.

    Also, my friend and Salt Lake County Progressive Caucus Chairman Chris Stout just announced today that he is running for Salt Lake County Auditor next year. The incumbent is Republican Gregory Hawkins. From what I understand, Mr. Hawkins is not that popular, and Chris Stout has built up a lot of good will (if not county-wide) name recognition in SLCO over his past two (unsuccessful) campaigns, one for Senate and one for State Treasurer. I'm fairly sure his day job has something to do with auditing as well. Hawkins is also not actually a credited auditor (retirement lawyer instead, I think), so there's that.

    Through the past few weeks, there's been a small trickle of "I'm running for such and such seat" by Democrats, but not anything I haven't already covered in that gigantic Utah Dems overview post. As always, I'll make a post if anything new happens.

    Oh, and progressive Ogden City Council candidate Turner Bitton is not conceding in his election "loss", because he's only down about 80-100 votes, and there's 300 or so uncounted votes. He's only 23 and has bit of a minor following though, so even if he loses here, he's got a lot of opportunities ahead of him.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:15:00 PM PST

  •  Virginia BoE site updated (somewhat at least) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    Shows a 55 vote margin now, not the 1000+ one of the previous 36 hours.

    I haven't checked all the jurisdictions to see which do NOT have provisional listed yet, but maybe that will now be a smallish number.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 04:57:46 PM PST

  •  WI-GOV (14+ / 0-)

    I recently watched Mary Burke's interview with Rachel Maddow. This was kind of a perfect first opportunity to see Burke's chops. Maddow wouldn't be hammering her, not letting her speak because that's not really her style and Maddow is while not a partisan Democrat is certainly sympathetic to her position on most of the issues. But she's also enough of a professional that Burke couldn't just sleepwalk through it.

    I thought she did a pretty good job. I liked the fact that one of the first things she did was hit him on Wisconsin's lagging job growth numbers. I've said I think the message has to be that he may be a national figure, a Tea Party darling, but when you look at the facts Scott Walker just sucks at his job. And she stuck to her main talking points about bringing people together. She certainly isn't the most polished candidate but I think 6 months from now she could be quite good.

  •  More fishy numbers from the Virginia SBE (10+ / 0-)

    They're saying Herring netted only three votes from Norfolk provisionals because they want to count fully half of the provisionals as write-in votes. Tweet here.

    This reeks of bullshit.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:24:31 PM PST

  •  Places where provisionals still out GoggleDoc (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, BeloitDem

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:31:26 PM PST

    •  As I said above, I'm not convincedall those (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      have not been counted.  If Buchanan only has two provisionals for 4700 voters, Bath could easily have zero from its 1200 voters.

      Botencourt has 11,000 total votes and only 4 provisionals as another example.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:38:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agree, small counties can have few or none (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I bet there are counties that have none.  There are a couple counties that had less than 1,000 total votes cast.  Many more that have over 1,000, but not much more.

        And however the canvass ends, if the leader is up by less than 50 votes, that's small enough that a recount really could flip it.  Still less likely than the outcome of the leader still winning, but not remote, either.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:11:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA-A.G.: prepare for mind-blowing new news (20+ / 0-)

    Dave Wasserman tweets just now:

    Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
    Breaking from a Dem source: There is a discrepancy in Richmond 501 (Stadium/Cary Town area) that could put Herring (D) ahead significantly.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:42:10 PM PST

  •  Personal Announcement: (48+ / 0-)

    On Wednesday night, my father (54) passed away after a courageous battle with cancer. The cancer got into his brain, and became untreatable. We found out that treatments wouldn't work anymore recently, and were surprised that Dad passed so soon after we learned this.

    Dad was a caring and humble man and was loved by all who knew him. He was an ardent Democrat as well. I don't think he ever voted for a Republican in his life.

    My mom, brother and I are hanging in there as best we can. What else are we going to do, really? Dad was always positive about his health issues. He figured that it would help no one if he was negative.

    Thank you all for your thoughts and prayers.

    -WisJohn

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "No tears. Remember the jokes and stories and good times we had. Be good."- My dad.

    by WisJohn on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 07:42:42 PM PST

  •  2011 Singapore general election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    there was a recount in one constituency, but it didn't change the result.

    •  Can't speak to other countries, but here... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Audrid, LordMike

      ...in most places, recounts rarely change an outcome.  It certainly happens, we had two high-profile instances of it with Al Franken winning his Senate seat in '08 and before that Christine Gregoire winning the Governorship in '02.  But usually the recount finds mistakes that largely break even and don't flip the race.

      But if the Herring-Obenshain race is less than 100 votes apart heading into recount, that's small enough that a flip is plausible......still less than 50-50, but not a longshot.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:26:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm sure it'll be a long time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid

      before PAP dominance is threatened. They've really done a good job keeping the country together and enabling it to become a vibrant, developed economy.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 08:30:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-A.G.: more updates from Ben Tribbett (10+ / 0-)

    Apparently Richmond has FIVE precincts total with issues of some kind.  And one of them is a precinct where Republicans think Herring votes were overtabulated, so it's an issue that would benefit them if correct.

    I presume the 501 precinct giving Herring a treasure trove also is one of the 5.

    I don't know about the others.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:52:20 PM PST

    •  Also, on the vote total so far...... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      Ben ran the math on this to double-check the numbers and concludes that the current margin is, indeed, Obenshain by 44, with the SBE's 55-vote margin missing one set of votes that went 15-4 for Herring.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:53:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-HD 49 Election Results (7+ / 0-)

    I'd totally forgotten about this one since it's in a district decided by the primary election, and I don't remember seeing it in the election night coverage.

    Anyway, Democrat Phil Phelps won a special election, last Tuesday, for the 49th House District in Michigan put into play after the former representative successfully ran for a vacated spot in the Michigan Senate (SD 27).   This is a Dem hold since Jim Ananich was also a Dem.  The 49th district includes part of Flint and some neighboring suburbs.  The margin was 63% for Phelps, 33% for his Republican opponent, and 4% for the Libertarian Party candidate.

  •  Gonna call it a night (6+ / 0-)

    Twitter down to nothing now in my feed.  I'm finally going to bed.  G'night all, and I'll be back in the Sunday a.m.

    This has really been quite something today.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 10:00:38 PM PST

  •  SD-Mayor: Excellent Kevin Faulconer profile (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA

    There was a lot of skepticism expressed when a poll I posted on here showed Republican Kevin Faulconer up at 41% in the non-partisan primary election and up ~46-41 over Nathan Fletcher in a two-way race between the two.

    Hopefully this story will help explain to DKE members why Faulconer's bid for Mayor of San Diego is going strongly, by all accounts.

    http://voiceofsandiego.org/...

    From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

    by IllinoyedR on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 07:56:47 AM PST

    •  I'm not denying he has a chance (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      but once Fletcher advances to Round 2, Democrats will most likely unite behind him and push him to victory.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:26:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Reason is simple (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, skipos, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        San Diego is different now and though Faulconer > Demaio, Fletcher >>> Filner.  And that is a fluff piece you posted, not really digging into his character.  Doesn't give you the full story.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:30:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  A follow up (0+ / 0-)

      A fellow Republican friend didn't like this profile. While I think it was unfair to Faulconer in a few ways, I took away from it that he's a quiet, effective workhorse who's a uniter and not a divider and that, while he's sometimes overlooked, he ends up being the go to guy for SD Republicans at the end of the day.

      From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

      by IllinoyedR on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:19:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hadn't read this part (0+ / 0-)
        This happens to Faulconer because he’s safe, agreeable and competent, the kind of guy voters would want after the person they elected turned out to be a mess. It also happens because Faulconer’s largely been a follower in politics, the kind of guy who relies on others’ bold stand instead of taking one himself.

        This political dynamic – that Faulconer becomes the second choice when the first one screws up or becomes too polarizing – has positioned Faulconer to be a frontrunner in San Diego’s mayoral election do-over. The question is whether it’s positioned him to lead on big issues without having anyone else around to make a decision first.

        Had skimmed the article. I'd no longer call it an excellent profile, but I think it gets some things right (like his positive demeanor and can do attitude).

        From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

        by IllinoyedR on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 06:17:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I can believe it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      Mayoral races are generally less partisan races.
      SD isnt a heavily partisan D city to begin with.
      Faulconer, as a city councilman can talk about issues affecting the city that he has tackled.
      It will be a low turnout race, so enthusiasm will be a bigger factor. Jerry Sanders endorsement helps him.

      I can believe that Faulconer will win the race.

  •  current estimated Herring lead is 82 votes (6+ / 0-)

    per Dave wasserman. Bear in mind they still need to count FFX provisionals and that won't be done until Tuesday.

    Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Did some time at a super PAC focused on NJ lege races. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:31:10 AM PST

  •  VA-A-G: Where we're at: (4+ / 0-)

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:31:56 AM PST

  •  LA-05: Unlike AL-01, this race hasnt (5+ / 0-)

    gotten a lot of attention in terms of establishment vs. tea party.

    But maybe it should. Businessman Vince McAllister says he doesnt support Obamacare, but does support taking the Medicaid expansion, citing the poverty levels in the 5th. He also says insurance companies shouldnt deny people based on pre-existing conditions.

    McAllister also backs citizenship for people here illegally, and didnt support the government shutdown.

    State Senator Neil Riser feels the opposition on all those issues.

    McAllister was s distant second in the initial race 31-18, and would have an uphill climb in the runoff(although he was endorsed by the third place finishing Democrat, Jamie Mayo).

    The runoff is Nov 16 and could be an interesting race to watch.

  •  Texas Candidate Filing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, James Allen, jj32

    Day 1 is done and in the books

    http://www.burntorangereport.com/...

    77 candidates turned in paperwork, and I got the list of who has filed thus far, incumbents and challengers. Wendy and Abbott were both prompt on Day 1, as were primary challengers to each.

    Thus far 81/150 house members have made their plans clear as have 14/36 congressmen (Sam Johnson is the only true unknown left), and all state senators up in 2014 except Dean Whitmire (D) and Sen. West (D).

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:12:15 AM PST

  •  New Jersey anyone? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skipos, LordMike, MichaelNY, paradise50

    I've started volunteering for a progressive running against Rep Chris Smith in NJ-04. After Christie dominated everything it got me into wanting to make a difference

  •  VA-A.G.: Taniel finds reassuring info for Herring (15+ / 0-)

    Taniel reports on Twitter this afternoon that of the 18 jurisdictions in Virginia whose provisional ballot totals we don't know at all, those jurisdictions combined totaled only 148 provisional votes in 2012.  When you consider the much lower turnout this year, just under 60% of the 2012 raw turnout, the provisionals from those places this year should total no more than 90.

    Even if Obenshain were to win those, say, 2-to-1, that nets him roughly 30 votes.  That's not enough to overcome what we think we're going to get from Richmond and Fairfax.

    Of course, Ben reports that the GOP thinks they have "possible" issues in two precincts in Richmond that might involve overtabulation.  We don't know yet if that's legit, and if so how many votes would be removed.  That's the lone remaining wildcard in this thing.  Everything else points toward Herring leading by 100ish votes when everything else is resolved.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 11:57:14 AM PST

    •  Wow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, James Allen

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 12:15:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A slight correction (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, gabjoh, James Allen

      We don't know the provisionals at all in 49 localities, one of which is Fairfax. But that only makes it more stirking that they combined to cast just 148 provisional ballots in 2012!

      •  Now I'm MORE confused (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        I THINK what you're trying to clarify is that the 148 is how many provisional votes actually counted from these jurisdictions, and distinguish that from how many were cast?

        If so, I realize that, I was referring to actual votes counted.

        And I realize we don't know how many provisionals were submitted in these counties, and what the rejection rate was, although one presumes across all of them it was a majority as it is in Fairfax and elsewhere.

        And no question with lower turnout there should be less than 100 total this time, perhaps as few as 80, actually counted.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 02:10:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  re (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          I was correcting you for saying "18" localities -- I was saying it's 49 localities. (Many will likely not have any provisionals, by the way.)

          We actually seem to know how many provisionals were submitted/cast. See spreadsheet: http://bit.ly/...

        •  Spreadsheet says 492 provisionals cast in Fairfax (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          alone.  Ballpark half of provisionals seem to be being accepted so there are at least a couple hundred more votes to be counted from provisionals.

          Assuming this spreadsheet is right of course
          https://docs.google.com/...

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 06:53:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  On the other hand, besides Fairfax there are (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            may only be three other places with actual provisionals to count.  Maybe a handful of the other places haven't counted theirs but besides Fairfax, Spotsylvania, Montgomery and Roanoke City... any others should total less than 15 votes total.

            Fairfax provisionals dwarf the number of possible ones from everywhere else.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 07:21:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It's less than half that are really counted (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            It's about 40 percent, although it can be a little more or a little less in any given election.  Half is optimistic.

            In any case they've now accepted 136 without rejecting any yet.  But as I said in another comment, these accepted ones might be the no-brainers, with difficult cases coming next and rejections starting to pile up over the next day or two.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:31:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  WA St. Sen-Harper(D) to resign... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SaoMagnifico, James Allen

    to spend more time with family. It's an Everett-based district--anybody know if this is a competitive district? He has to be replaced with an appointed Democrat, but I wonder what happens at the next election...More here.
    http://www.heraldnet.com/...

  •  Hoping for a Herring win (9+ / 0-)

    I could do with some babka, guys.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 01:24:48 PM PST

    •  did you call the other races correctly? n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 01:37:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can't remember what I predicted in SD-26... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        And I think just about all of us shot high on the HoD pickups -- but otherwise, IIRC, yes.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 02:21:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I called the VA house wrong (0+ / 0-)

        I also thought Buono could just barely crack 40%

        Was the Washington State Senate race also a choice? If so I got that wrong too.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 03:09:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Actually had chocolate babka for the first time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Last night - it was a friend's birthday cake. Wish I could have gotten some of the elections-flavored stuff as well, but Dean Young's loss crushed that dream.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 01:43:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dean Young's loss (8+ / 0-)

        a victory for sanity, a loss for the babka dreams of quite a few DKEers.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 01:56:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I predicted Byrne on that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 03:10:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  What does the elections flavour taste like? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike
      •  Honnestly, I think the thing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, LordMike

        That screwed over the most people was the HoD races. I predicted 5 pickups, which I think was on the lower end, but I still lost 3 points on that, which is more than the 2 I will have lost on the rest of the competition assuming Herring pulls it out.

        •  I said five too, (0+ / 0-)

          but I was also on the wrong side of the margins for both Christie and the Chairman. Oh, and wrong on the WA senate seat.

        •  Five shouldn't have been on the lower end (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          If that was the lower end, no one had a realistic expectation there.  There were zero seats that anyone rated, at the time, better than pure tossup, and not as many as five of those.  Indeed, one of our two pickups was an upset, we blew several that were tossups and picked up only one of those.

          Five would've been overperformance and made me ecstatic.  But it would've required McAuliffe winning by at least 5 points IMO, which we expected based on public polling but that didn't happen.  In hindsight, I think the best perspective is that McAuliffe was always too weak in his own right to be expected to win going away.  I'm thinking he has a good first year as Governor and that fixes his image, puts him in a new light.  After that, I have no idea what happens.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 05:02:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's the thing (4+ / 0-)

            If T-Mac had won by anything near what the polling aggregates were showing, we would have picked up AT LEAST 5 seats in the HoD. Hell, if he had done one point better, we'd probably be looking at a 4 seat gain despite him underperforming polling. To get the numbers in the HoD right, you had to correctly predict that T-Mac's margin would be substantially smaller than the one most public evidence was pointing to. A bunch of us were also off on the tiebreaker, but that doesn't really matter too much since we were penalized more for being wrong about the HoD pickups.

          •  We lost 7 (?) House seats by 1-2% (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            We just happened to be on the wrong side of all of those races.

            McAulliffe didn't need to win 5 points for us to pickup some of those seats. An extra - what - 600 votes and we could have won like 6 seats.

            •  I've been figuring out how McAuliffe did at (5+ / 0-)

              the House level. This is what I have for all of the races that were close:

              HD-12 - 46-44 McAuliffe (approx)
              HD-13 - 48-47 McAuliffe (approx)
              HD-31 - 49-47 McAuliffe (approx)
              HD-32 - 51-44 McAuliffe
              HD-34 - 52-42 McAuliffe
              HD-86 - 56-37 McAuliffe
              HD-87 - 53-42 McAuliffe
              HD-94 - 48-46 McAuliffe (approx)

              Some of them are approximate, as they have multiple split precincts, so I had to estimate the vote totals there. I think they're all pretty accurate, though.

              So yeah... Tom Rust did 13% better than Cuccinelli. I'm really surprised Ramadan managed to win. And that poll of the 94th that had McAuliffe up 52-42 was waaaaay off.

              Oh, and as for the two districts that the Dems did pick up:

              HD-02 - 53-43 McAuliffe (approx)
              HD-93 - 54-40 McAuliffe (approx)

              And the district where Dems sunk a quarter million trying to win:

              HD-06 - 64-29 Cuccinelli

              He did worse than Obama there.

              •  HD-86 is annoying (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ChadmanFL

                They should have tied Rust to Cooch like Dems were tied to Pelosi in 2010.

                "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:13:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  You really can't do that with Rust (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  He's a well-known figure who was Mayor of Herndon, in the district, for 20 years.  He has an established moderate image, he's actually pro-choice, and he's generally even-tempered.  I'm actually very surprised Jennifer got that close to him, I thought she'd clearly lose by more than Kathleen in HD-34.  Yes the district is the most Democratic of any R-held seat and more Democratic than some Dem-held seats, but Rust has been untouchable even though he's the last R who'll ever hold it.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:33:31 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I realize that, but I also think... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BluntDiplomat, itskevin

              ...a larger Governor's margin nets us those seats.  A larger margin carries some people over the finish line.  Not always, no, obviously not for New Jersey Republicans this time.  But in Virginia it's pretty consistent that the better the top does, the better the bottom does.

              Even if the tossup/slight lean ratings for those Delegate seats were vindicated, I tend to think they all fell just a hair against us partly because McAuliffe couldn't win by more than 3.  In hindsight, I can see an argument where the fact that we weren't actually favored in any of those tight races signaled maybe the Governor's race wasn't a big lead as public polling says.  But that would've come off as silly speculation in real time, especially given what we knew was transpiring in New Jersey.

              And I can't fault McAuliffe for that, I believe Geoff Garin when he says the campaign's modeling never showed a bigger lead.  My understanding is the Cuccinelli pollsters used RDD, not voter lists!  So it makes sense they would've seen what public pollsters saw, but Team Terry between RBS polling and analytics and modeling saw something more precise.  Ultimately Terry is who he is, he probably had no way of improving his image enough to win by more in a mere campaign.  I'm hopeful he has a good first year as Governor and that fixes his image.

              One more thing:  I'm now convinced Sarvis hurt us.  His voters are by and large conservative, and some of them wouldn't have showed up in a two-way.  But they showed up and voted GOP downballot.  I did some very rough math and I figure, for example, the HD-34 race with Murphy and Comstock would've been close to an exact tie, definitely recount territory, had Sarvis not been there.  I figure something around 40% of Sarvis voters wouldn't have showed, with Comstock winning the remainder 3-to-1.  That results in vote totals for both real close to Comstock's 431-vote margin.  Cuccinelli's ticketmates should be grateful Sarvis was there helping keep their turnout up.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:06:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  5 was not unrealistic (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            given that it were 4 D+5+ districts reasonably well contested. Not enough contested to win HD-86 and HD-87 but the blue team lost only by 50-50.

            But you are right it was not in the lower end, it was in the upper end of a realistic prediction. Optimistic by nature as I'm, I also predicted 5, but since a different point. I was conscient that it was in the upper side of a realistic prediction. And I was not wrong Im losing provisionally 3 points (86, 87 and 31) by 50.5-49.5 or less.

            And I also agree that many people here is becoming too optimistic (also for 2014) without a solid basis for it. It will be interesting to see the prediction results in the contest of some opinion leaders here.

            Also I wish to note that a D+5+ (PVI) constituency is only worse than a Toss-Up when the Democratic Party leaves the race "uncontested" (read here NJ-Gov and NJ-LG, ME-Sen, VT-LG and DE-SA).

            There are two good lessons for 2014 if the people take profit of them.

  •  CHA-Mayor/NC-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    Gotta love this article right here. McCrory better be ready for that beatdown he's gonna get in '16 by Cooper.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 03:46:19 PM PST

  •  Another potential FL House seat Dems can win? (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.saintpetersblog.com/...

    Peters is from Pinellas, and narrowly won last year. If she does this suicide run, this could and should be a pickup for the Dems. I'm sure Obama won here, even though the Florida Pres-Lege performance crosstabs haven't been posted yet.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 03:58:39 PM PST

  •  I was watching (8+ / 0-)

    the nominating convention speeches from E.W. Jackson and Pete Snyder (who was the runner up for the GOP nod for Lt. Gov). Without any idea of how many delegates each of the candidates managed to get elected to the convention, I could see why E.W. Jackson won the nomination.

    First off Pete Snyder spent most of his allotted speaking time having good ole Oliver North introduce him before switching to a intro video. Then when Snyder finally got to the podium he gave a pretty boring speech. (For a Fox News Correspondent, and yes he emphasized this a couple of times you would think he'd be a better public speaker.)

    Even his, "why hire 10,000 IRS agents for Obamacare when you can cut government by 10%" got a meh response from the audience.

    On the other hand E.W. Jackson pretty much fired up the convention crowd. Not really a surprise since he is a pastor, but he really got the crowd excited when he said Republicans support school choice because kids "should not be indoctrinated." And the crowd really went nuts when he said, "I am not an African American, but I am an AMERICAN!"

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 06:03:09 PM PST

  •  Virginia BoE site update again 17 vote difference (0+ / 0-)

    Not sure how they came up with that number, or where the votes included from today (Sunday) came from.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 06:38:32 PM PST

  •  My Herring guess (6+ / 0-)

    SBE just updated to show Herring down 17, but they haven't changed Richmond 501 numbers to reflect what Dave Wasserman says, that he heard an update in that precinct will show Herring gains net 116 votes.

    So we can imagine current Herring lead of 99 votes over 2.2M+ cast! Then they have to count provisionals (FFX extended their deadline until Tuesday).

    Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Did some time at a super PAC focused on NJ lege races. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 07:00:24 PM PST

    •  99 . . . wouldn't that be something? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 07:15:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  this thing's changing by the hour (4+ / 0-)

      now Wasserman saying at least 136 provisionals will be counted in FFX and if they break like the rest of the county's votes, Herring could take 13 vote lead

      Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Did some time at a super PAC focused on NJ lege races. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

      by Bharat on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 07:43:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  136 accepted thus far, but with still more to come (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        right?  136 was how many they accepted this weekend alone?

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:16:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Those were the easy ones to accept (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY

          Again, I commented on this here in several places, and Schoeneman verified my thinking correct.  They wanted to go ahead and find the easy ones to accept and count those and set them aside before getting to the harder ones.  And of course with the harder ones they also want to give voters an opportunity to come in and make their case.  They don't need to bother with that with provisionals they know they're accepting anyway, so they knocked those down already.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:44:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Who knows if that ever materializes? (6+ / 0-)

      Stuff like this gets reported wrongly all the time.  Not Wasserman's fault, source could've heard bad information and repeated it, or rephrased it in a way that came off differently than the truth to Wasserman.  Lots of things can happen in the form of miscommunication.

      That's why as excited as I get, I don't count on votes counting until they've actually been added by the SBE.

      I'm happy to end Sunday down 17.  I hope 501 still materializes, at this stage that just about locks it up pre-recount, unless there are errors that cost us votes in the two Richmond precincts where Ben reported possible overtabulation that the GOP was pursuing.  But just as I can picture 501 never materializing, I can picture those supposed overtabulation errors never materializing.  Nothing counts until it's counted.

      The Fairfax provisionals look promising so far with 136 accepted and none yet rejected, but I suspect that's a bit misleading in that the no-brainers to accept might be decided first as the low-hanging fruit.  Then they get to the more difficult cases that require more scrutiny, and rejections start piling up.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 07:57:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But they're still tabulating provisionals in FFX? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, LordMike

        and there will likely be many more than just 136 accepted?

        I have to say again I was wrong about Schoeneman.  His early, matter-of-fact denials of uncounted Fairfax County absentee ballots made him look like a GOP hack trying to hide or ignore votes.  But then he admitted he was wrong and started a recanvas.  Then they voted to condemn the VA Board of Elections for their capricious judgements and decided to extend provisional vote counting in order to allow as many people as possible to come in to confirm their votes.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:19:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My comment on Fairfax provisionals proves right (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, itskevin, LordMike

          I said in comments here that the 136 represent low-hanging fruit, the obvious cases where the votes should count.  Well Schoeneman verifies that in an official statement tonight.  The remainder include both the harder cases and what will prove to be obvious rejections.

          Still, encouraging to me that we've got 136 counted already.  A 40-percent acceptance rate would put the total at 200, and we're already much of the way there.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:42:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  LOL (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, LordMike

            Do you want to try your luck out with this?

            "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

            by Coco Usagi on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:04:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I already did, I was very first contestant (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Coco Usagi, LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

              My entry was Herring +105.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:16:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  somewhat concerned about the provisionals (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                With such as small sample even in Fairfax, we don't have a good idea of the breakdown. Obenshain actually won provisionals in Loudoun by 23 votes when he lost the county by 6% overall.But  Cucinnelli lost provisionals in Fairfax 63-79 in 2009 getting 44% of provisionals vs. the 47.7% he got overall in Fairfax. Again, we are talking such small samples that anything can tip it one way or the other. I would be more comfortable if the Richmond City 501 issue turns up the rumored missing votes. I actually would feel more comfortable if Herring actually took the lead already.

  •  lost track of the number of zeros a few times (5+ / 0-)
  •  Although I just realized (0+ / 0-)

    He forgot to convert from decimals to percentage. Still crazy.

  •  VA-Everything: the Sarvis effect (5+ / 0-)

    One takeaway from this election is that I was completely wrong about the Sarvis vote melting on election day.  He hung in there, yes still clearly below his polling average, but 6.52% is damn impressive.  Given that he had hardly any money, hardly any media, no message, no name rec, and very little free media, doubtless his voters were protest voters.

    Comparing his the Governor's race to the other state races, in particular the A.G. race which is just about an exact tie, we get a clear picture of how Sarvis mattered.

    The key to this analysis is that I assume, I'm virtually certain correctly, that some percentage of Sarvis voters would've stayed home had the Governor's race been only a two-way.  It's hazardous to guess what percentage, but based on polls and my own sense from obsessively following past elections that by chance including a third wheel, it appears to be maybe roughly 40% who don't show.  Maybe that's mistaken, maybe it's as little as 20%, with a bunch just leaving the Governor's race blank.  It's hard to know, I concede these people after all wanted to vote and maybe more of them than I think wanted to vote no matter what.  But some non-trivial percentage wouldn't have voted.  And that mattered downballot and hurt us.

    The A.G. race sees 28K fewer total votes than the Governor's race.  A fraction of those might be actual Libertarians who don't like the major parties.  Others might just not care about the A.G. race.  But after those, you've importantly got Obenshain tallying 90K more votes than Cuccinelli, and Herring tallying 34K more votes than McAuliffe.  I think it's safe to say that McAuliffe-Obenshain voters and Cuccinelli-Herring voters were very few.  This by and large represents Sarvis voters breaking to the major party in the A.G. race.  It's a wonderful real-life experiment in what Libertarian-minded protest voters think like.  They were, in this case, largely conservative and favored the GOP close to 3-to-1.  That is unsurprising to me and validates my preconceived notion of them.

    I believe this same thing applied downballot.  Sarvis voters had dropoff in Delegate races just as in the A.G. race, and perhaps larger drop-offs than in the A.G. race, but I'm convinced that some of them wouldn't have showed up in a two-way Governor's race, and that particular subset of Sarvis voters probably broke one-sidedly to Republicans in Delegate races.

    Sarvis ended up serving a valuable function for the GOP.

    And yes, I think the Governor's race would've been painfully close without him, because Sarvis voters who would've shown up anyway would've broken heavily for Cuccinelli, and we would've been sweating it the same as the A.G. race on election night.  To me, this just establishes that very early notions of the Governor's race, that it was a tossup between two disliked candidates, proved true.  Whatever public polling said, I think in hindsight one can say it probably just wasn't realistic to think Terry McAuliffe of all people was going to win a Virginia's Governor's race going away.  When he first wanted to do this, people at the 2008 Democratic convention where he floated the idea told him point blank "no, don't do it."  He was thought to be a completely non-viable candidate who voters just wouldn't take seriously, with his image and resume.  It's easy to become desensitized to that fact now after a long campaign and his actual election.  But make no mistake, it's fucking amazing that we just got Terry McAuliffe elected Governor of Virginia.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:28:02 PM PST

    •  I don't know that I can fully agree with (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

      the following:

      I think it's safe to say that McAuliffe-Obenshain voters and Cuccinelli-Herring voters were very few.
      Every election there are a significant (but not huge) number of voters who split their tickets in baffling ways. Just recently (though I grant the several-week difference), what in the world is going through the mind of a Booker-Christie voter?

      Going back a few years, who on earth votes for Ed Rendell and Rick Santorum in the same election?

      What i think this illustrates is how difficult it can be to perform the analysis you are attempting. The ballots didn't ask the Sarvis voters who their second choice is, so it's really difficult to know.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 08:37:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Your examples don't really apply (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        I agree that it's difficult to do this kind of analysis, nothing is for sure.

        But I'm quite confident cross-ticket voting was very weak.  The exit poll established that among self-IDing partisans.  Among swing voters, Virginia normally has a lot of straight-ticket behavior, with downballot state offices closely tracking the Governor's race and moving with it.  That proves untrue when one race has a conspicuously weak nominee like Jackson this time, but the Cuccinelli and Bolling blowout wins in 2009 reflect what I'm talking about.

        It's flatly wrong to say "every" election there are a "significant" number of ticket-splitters.  That's just not true.  There are a significant number in some elections and not others.  And it's obvious why when there are plenty, like in the examples you gave.

        In this case, there was nothing about the candidates that would cause people to like McAuliffe but prefer Obenshain to Herring......Herring easily had a more favorable image.  Likewise, Obenshain was the only Republican with a favorable image, Cuccinelli voters weren't going to go against him for Herring.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:25:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I was assuming (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      there actually was a non-trivial number of McAuliffe-Obenshain voters (i.e. soft GOP supporters who didn't want to vote for Cuccinelli or Jackson but also didn't want to vote straight ticket Dem) but what you're saying about Sarvis voters makes a lot of sense.

      •  There were hardly any McAuliffe Republicans (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, LordMike

        The exit poll made clear Cuccinelli held the GOP vote the same as always.  Whatever high-profile Republican supporters McAuliffe had might've moved the needle a little with swing voters, but not with Republicans.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:20:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Hardly any" = 28k Republican TMac voters (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY

          according to the exit polls.  Versus 16k Democratic Cooch voters.

          Obviously if Obershain wins it will be because of McAuliffe-Obenshain voters... but that says nothing because a margin of under 100 voters allows any group of voters to claim to be the one that put one guy over the top.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 11:34:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I've been arguing this point for a long time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        My fear was that McAuliffe winning with less than 50% would sink Herring, but it seems to have hurt House of Delegates candidates more. It looks like in several races the Democratic candidate got about the same or slightly more votes than McAuliffe, so Sarvis voters broke for Republican Delegates. I think it probably hurt the Democrats running in the 12th, 13th, and the 94th in particular.

    •  I think the portion who wouldn't vote is quite low (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      a lot of conservative voters always vote, and so this time they showed up as usual but just didn't vote Cuccinelli.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:01:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe, that's why I hedged a little... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, sacman701

        ...and said maybe it's 20 percent instead of 40 percent.

        But I'm convinced it's non-trivial.  These people all knowingly and consciously threw their votes away on a guy they knew wouldn't win, and who they didn't necessarily actually want for Governor.  So I think it's clear a significant minority of them would've refused to vote for either major party nominee even without Sarvis as a choice.  And while some of those might've voted anyway and undervoted, most of them wouldn't have showed up at all based on the reality that the Governor's race drives turnout.  After all, this time like every time the Governor's race had the most votes, even though everyone felt the A.G. race had the best candidates.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 09:28:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sarvis did take a some youth votes (0+ / 0-)

      Away from McAuliffe. I'd need to see a more detailed analysis but though I'd buy that Cuccinelli lost more I'm not sure it would cover the 55k margin.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 03:38:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  UT-04: It beeeegins! (5+ / 0-)

    The clash of Matheson vs Love has begun! Matheson's throwing the first punch, but I'm fairly sure Love will throw a negative attack ad at him soon enough.

    I talked about my uneasy realization of support for Matheson before, but another reason that I support him is that I love a good political fight. And he's the only one who can provide one in Utah right now. Maybe Ben McAdams will in a few cycles, and maybe Luz Robles will surprise everybody and pick a good fight with Chris Stewart (I'm certainly hoping so), but right now, it's all Matheson.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:02:03 PM PST

  •  grrrr (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Nov 10, 2013 at 10:27:52 PM PST

  •  Warning (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Never leave your Kindle on the floor by your bed when you ask your boyfriend to change the sheets!

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 03:40:08 AM PST

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