There may not be a second swearing-in for Gov. Pat Quinn
Oof. There's simply no good news for Gov. Pat Quinn
in PPP's new poll—the first anyone's conducted of the Land of Lincoln in a solid year. We've known for a long time that Quinn is deeply unpopular, but his performance against the Republican field is just disastrous, especially in a state this blue. Here's the ugly (like we say, there's no good, and there isn't even any bad), with those
year-ago trendlines in parens:
• 41-38 vs. businessman Bruce Rauner
• 41-41 vs. state Sen. Bill Brady
• 39-39 vs. state Sen. Kirk Dillard (37-44)
• 39-41 vs. state Treasurer Dan Rutherford (39-43)
Remarkably, Quinn is actually doing a touch better than he was in November of 2012, thanks to a slightly improved job approval rating. Don't get any ideas, though: He's still at a disastrous 34-60, as opposed to an apocalyptic 25-64. What's even more troubling is that other, less radioactive Democrats don't fare much better—though of course, none of these alternatives are actually running, and the state's filing deadline is on Monday. State Attorney General Lisa Madigan leads Rutherford, the strongest GOPer, 45-40; Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is up 40-38; and former state Comptroller Dan Hynes ties at 34. A year earlier, Madigan was up 46-37, so the atmosphere has curdled toward Democrats generally.
That's most painfully exemplified by Barack Obama's job approval score, which stands at just 50-46 in his home state; this time a year ago, he was at 57-41. The poll's sample has also become noticeably redder. Respondents say they voted for Obama over Mitt Romney by just a 51-42 margin, even though the president won here 58-41. (PPP's prior survey was very close to reality, at 56-39.) That's a very bad sign for Democrats heading into 2014.
You add together the ongoing Obamacare screwups, a still-pretty-crummy economy for non-one-percenters, and Quinn's tax increases and feuds with the legislature, and you have a really lousy environment for the Democratic Party. You also have a serious chance at a Republican pickup, which is why we're changing our rating on this race from Lean Democrat to Tossup. Honestly, Lean D was probably generous, but we lacked recent polling. Now, Tossup may be generous to Quinn, too, since he'll really need things to turn around if he's to survive. But right now, it's hard to see what he can do to brighten his prospects.
P.S. The Republican primary isn't far off—March 18. We've actually seen a number of surveys of this race, though, and unlike in other polls, PPP has the free-spending Rauner leading, with 24 percent. Brady takes 17, Rutherford 14, and Dillard 10. Democrats are probably rooting for Brady, whom Quinn narrowly defeated in 2010, to emerge as the GOP nominee again, while Republicans would be smart to put forth Rutherford. But there are still a lot of undecideds, and Rauner's lead is small, so it's probably still anybody's race.