Yes, that's an overstatement...but we're about to hear much ado about a new Harvard Institute of Politics poll of millennials that has the straight and GOPer media all a-fluster.
From Time:
“We’re now seeing a sea change among this critical demographic,” said Trey Grayson, the director of the institute. “You’re seeing cracks in his base.”
'Sea change' is also overstating it a bit.
By Harvard's own data, Obama had a at least a 9-point drop between the time he was elected in 2008 compared to the 11-point dip showing now...with a 5-point difference between polling taken December 2011 and the latest results. Not that I'm much of a statistician, but given the timing of and infrequent nature of Harvard's polling, it seems as if they are drawing too broad of a conclusion.
Of course, there's going to be little mention of Congressional approval ratings. Or of the several things in the polling that millennials have their heads on straight about.
Time, again:
But in the Harvard survey, just 29% of uninsured millennials reported that they were likely to enroll. Low levels of enrollment among the young and healthy could hike costs, thereby further deterring healthy people from enrolling—and triggering the so-called death spiral that health-care experts say remains a worst-case scenario.
True, but misleading. According to the survey:
"Among the 22 percent in our survey who report that they have no insurance, less than one-third tell us they are likely to enroll; a plurality however are 50-50 and are therefore open to enrolling under the right circumstances."
No indication of what those circumstances might be in the poll. Also, the actual numbers should be considered...29% will enroll, 41% are 'iffy', and 30% stated that they won't enroll. It's not great news for the ACA or Obama, but it's not the gloom and doom that we are in the process of getting hit with right now from places like...
WaPo: "Young people have bailed on Obama. Why that matters a lot."
National Journal: "Millennials Abandon Obama and Obamacare"
Reason goes glibertarian while also using the poll as a fundraising pitch.
Good times.