Hello all. I have been a long time lurker here and at SSP (occasional contributor at SSP all those years ago). As a daily reader, I felt that my state (Missouri, hence the KC related name) has been underserved by redistricting diaries. There is a real chance that Republican-turned-Dem AG Chris Koster will hold the governorship for us in 2020 and we may even gain seats in the leg (can't get much worse).
So, I wanted my official de-lurking to be a 6-2 Dem gerrymander of Missouri. This is working on the assumption that population change/relaxed VRA scrutiny may allow for no VRA districts in Missouri. With that in mind, no community of interest was spared in creating this bullet-proof 6-2 Map. Details below the fold.
Incumbents are not mentioned in most districts because every district received swaths of new areas. Republican incumbents in Missouri are all very conservative and not likely to play well in Dem-friendly seats; likewise, Democratic incumbents Lacy-Clay and Cleaver are not particularly liked in their own districts and are not likely to win primaries with large sections of new voters.
St Louis City proper:
St Louis Metro:
District 1: Dark Blue (North St. Louis Metro, Hannibal, Kirksville, Maryville)
2008 Obama%: 55.6
2008 McCain%: 43.0
Dem Avg: 59.5
Rep Avg: 40.5
Safe Dem
This district takes a few of St. Louis's more African-American heavy precincts and combines them with some liberal and minority friendly suburbs and rural demosaur areas. Northern and Central Missouri demosaurs are not like Southern Missouri; many here voted for Obama, and many more voted for every non-African-American Democrat. The only Republican to carry this district was likely Roy Blunt, and then only very narrowly. Stable turnout means this district may see some close calls, but should not ever drop below 50+1.
Neither Lacy-Clay, nor Graves would be likely to win this district: Graves couldn't win a general here and Lacy-Clay would almost certainly be bounced in the primary.
District 2: Green (North St. Louis, West St. Louis Metro, Columbia)
2008 Obama%: 54.0
2008 McCain%: 45.0
Dem Avg: 57.3
Rep Avg: 42.7
Likely Dem
This district takes in some St. Louis minority heavy precincts and largely Democratic northern suburbs; I have taken advantage of the in-elasticity of this part of the St. Louis area and the area's polarization to eat up many of Central Missouri's hard-line Republican areas which are unlikely to swing, even in a wave. A mainline Democrat not from the city of St. Louis should win easily here as this district is the least elastic of any of the Dem districts. I only mark this as Likely Dem because the district is dependent on a large number of voters who's turnout is marginal. It could fall in a low-turnout wave mid-term, but we could likely reclaim it in nearly any presidential year.
Cape Girardeau area map:
Springfield Area Map:
District 3: Yellow (Central St. Louis, South Metro, Rural Southern MO, Springfield)
2008 Obama%: 54.6
2008 McCain%: 44.1
Dem Avg: 58.8
Rep Avg: 41.2
Safe Dem
This is one of the ugliest districts I have ever drawn. Many of the inflexibly liberal areas of St. Louis, the union heavy south metro, the minority areas of Cape Girardeau and swingy areas of Springfield. This district is not inelastic per se as Russ would have been all but surely a goner in 2010, but these areas are very Democrat-friendly down-ballot. The swingyier areas of South-Central and Southern Missouri are shored up with huge blocks of Democrats who vote in every election. This is likely safe even in low-turnout elections unless we get stuck with a candidate who doesn't campaign (cough... cough... Russ). A good Dem should consistently win by low double-digits here.
Columbia area map:
Jefferson City area map:
District 4: Orange (St. Louis Metro, St. Louis City, Sedalia, Kansas City outer-ring suburbs)
2008 Obama%: 51.2
2008 McCain%: 47.7
Dem Avg: 54.6
Rep Avg: 45.4
Lean Dem
This is the district that worries me the most. However, Dem-friendly demographic changes coupled with the most rock-ribbed yellow-dog areas of Missouri would favor a Blue-Dog/New-Dem style Democrat. The suburbs are always in danger of swinging against us hard, but the rural areas here are as Democratic as you can get south of the Mason-Dixon and the St. Louis suburbs that it has taken in are the fastest bluing areas of the state. Central St. Louis precincts and solid working-class Blue Springs should safely anchor this district in neutral and friendly years. The Dem number averages in DRA are not entirely indicative of how blue this area really is. State reps, county boards, and all manner of local offices are dominated by Dems here. Also, some of the best counties for Jay Nixon and Chris Koster were in this corridor and Ike Skelton utterly dominated this area.
Kansas City area map:
St. Joseph area map:
District 5: Purple (St. Joseph, Kansas City, KC northland suburbs and exurbs, KC southern exurbs)
2008 Obama%: 54.8
2008 McCain%: 44.0
Dem Avg: 57.1
Rep Avg: 42.9
Safe Dem
This district combines the state-level solid Dem towns of Excelsior Springs and St. Joseph with inner-city KC. The moderately Republican northland sporadically votes for Dems, but the hardcore tea-party southern exurbs (think 7-30% Obama 2008 and 2012) won't help us at all. That being said, the conservative areas are a small % of the district and inner-city KC mixed with Grandview provides a solid base for Dems. No way Republicans either: 1) nominate anybody but a nutter here or 2) get any higher than 48% no matter what. Republicans' only chance here is to nominate a northlander and an independent candidate splitting the Dem vote. Not a lot of swing from the 12% African-Americans in the district coupled with creative-class types in the city.
Joplin Area map:
District 6: Light-Blue (East KC, Independence, Lee's Summit, Springfield, Columbia)
2008 Obama%: 53.1
2008 McCain%: 45.5
Dem Avg: 63.8!!!!
Rep Avg: 36.2
Safe Dem
This district is anchored by east KC's most minority heavy areas, Springfield's most liberal areas, and the "student ghetto" of Columbia. Additionally, this district is demosaur central; the cities of Independence, Richmond, Lexington, and Nevada are good for reasonably good Dem margins in most races. This district also takes in the more hospitable parts of Lee's Summit and Joplin. At 22% non-white, this area may be rough for us in 2022, but Independence is swinging hard our way fast enough to compensate for demosaur drift. Also, many of these demosaurs voted for Obama in 2012; they aren't trending away particularly quickly. Anybody but Cleaver should have an easy time of it (zombie Skelton would likely be unopposed here).
Republican vote sink time!
District 7: Blood-red (Ozarks, Springfield, conservative St. Louis suburbs, conservative KC suburbs)
2008 Obama%: 37.5
2008 McCain%: 62.8
Dem Avg: 42.6
Rep Avg: 57.4
Safe R
This monstrosity takes in some of the most conservative areas of the St. Louis suburbs, the wealthier (and extremely evangelical) parts of Springfield, rural central Missouri, and KC's most notoriously conservative areas. Some demosaur areas had to be sacrificed because they were surrounded by inelastic conservatives. All-in-all, even if we were to win here with an epic Akin-esque fluke, we would have zero shot at keeping it.
District 8: Pink (Joplin, Springfield, Branson, Cape Girardeau)
2008 Obama%: 33.2
2008 McCain%: 65.4
Dem Avg: 35.7
Rep Avg: 64.3
Safe R
Not only is this area hard-right, but these voters are nearly completely inelastic. The long border with Arkansas invites comparison, but these areas have been Republican much longer (dating back to the civil war, a la Eastern Tennessee). This district skirting the southern border is about as straight-ticket Republican as it gets. Nothing to see here.
Thank you for taking the time to read my diary; hopefully I will be able to contribute more, as I already feel like I know many of the regular contributors after reading them every day for years.